Geely: Bears are back 🍯🐻The bears have now pushed Geely stock back below its March low. This confirms our primary scenario that the stock is in the final phase of the overarching gray wave II from the high of the magenta wave (B). This move should now be advanced to the green target zone between HK$7.80 and HK$4.12. With the low placed, the price should then move significantly higher.
Hang Seng HSI
Hang Seng Index: High-flyer 🌟The Hang Seng Index is currently in a strong rise. As the yellow trading range between 17 424 and 15 571 points has already been approached, it is quite possible that the low of the magenta wave alt.(2) has already been set. We give this scenario a 40% probability and it would become our primary scenario if the resistance at 18 898 points is broken. Until then, however, we must continue to expect that there will be another fall deeper into the trading range before the turnaround takes place.
Hang Seng Index Analysis: Price Recovers from Year's LowWhile today the world’s first economy is celebrating Labor Day (so due to the bank holiday in the US, financial markets will most likely have below average volatility), the second world’s economy is recovering. From the low of the year reached on August 22, the Hang Seng index has already risen by more than 6%, as we suggested in the post on August 17th.
The point is to stimulate the Chinese economy by the authorities with special support for the real estate sector. So, in August:
→ the Ministry of Finance introduced tax incentives for small businesses and rural households;
→ the People's Bank of China lowered the base annual rate on loans;
→ the State Council approved housing planning and construction guidelines;
→ citizens were allowed to take soft loans to buy their first home, regardless of their credit history. Other restrictions are also planned to be lifted.
For sure, September will bring more news about stimulating the Chinese economy, and the chart shows the optimism of market participants:
→ The price of the index rose briefly below the psychological level of 18,000.
→ The price of the index has returned to the ascending channel shown in blue.
→ The price is near the lower line of the descending channel shown in red.
→ The price worked out the level of 50% of the growth A→B.
However, the bears may show their presence in the near future, as the price is near the level of 18,888, which has influenced it more than once in the summer. Also, the market may feel resistance from the median line of the channel shown in red.
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HSI Index: Minimum of the Year, But Not Everything Is So BadToday, the price of the Hang Seng index fell below the level of 18,000 for the first time since November 2022. The media is publishing materials about the slowdown in the Chinese economy (which is confirmed by statistics) and the lack of expected government stimulus.
The FT writes that foreign investors have canceled purchases of Chinese shares worth USD 7.4 billion, which were made following a July 24 pledge by the Chinese Communist Party Politburo to increase support for the economy. And according to data released by the Chinese currency regulator on Wednesday, the volume of bonds of foreign institutional investors fell by USD 5 billion in July.
However, not everything is so bad.
Bullish arguments:
→ The price of the Hang Seng index rose rapidly after breaking through the psychological level at 18,000.
→ Also, at the close of today's candlestick, a false bearish breakdown of the previous low of the year, recorded on the last day of May, may form. Pay attention to the false bullish breakdown at the end of January — perhaps a mirror image situation is happening.
→ The price is near the lower line of the ascending channel, shown in blue (which is not quite obvious yet).
→ The price is near the lower line of the descending channel shown in red.
→ The price is near the level of 50% of the increase in A→B.
If the price of the Hang Seng index rises from a block of listed supports, this will be another example of how market lows are accompanied by negative media.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Bullish HSI Can Be Supportive For The KiwiNice bounce on HSI, looks like a bottom in 2022 because of an impulse up, now right shoulder at support. China is doing everything to support its economy, but with high rates in other major countries, they just cannot pick up that easily.
However, when economy in China will really start picking up that’s when commodity currencies like AUD and NZD can benefit. Also, recently China announced that they are in trade talks with New Zealand, so maybe NZD has also nice upside potential especially vs USD, now when FED can be close to end the hiking policy. Looking at NZDUSD chart, we can see slow price action and corrective wave structure after an impulse from the lows, which indicates for more gains in upcoming weeks/months.
Hang Seng: Thumbed 👍Exemplarily, Hang Seng has thumbed our target zone and turned upwards from there. Thus, we classify wave 2 in turquoise as complete. Now, wave 3 in turquoise should carry Hang Seng above the resistance at 21 056 points. The counter movement of wave 4 in turquoise should then push the index back toward this mark before the ascent can be resumed once again. However, there is a 39% chance that Hang Seng could interrupt the current upwards movement, shifting southwards to develop the new low of wave alt.2 in turquoise, which should then be established before the support at 17 948 points.
HSI - Falling Trend Channel [MID TERM]🔹HSI is in a falling trend channel in the medium long term.
🔹An inverse head and shoulders formation is under development.
🔹Break upwards through 19400 will be a positive signal.
🔹Overall assessed as technically slightly negative for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
HSI - Falling Trend Channel [MID TERM]- HSI is in a falling trend channel in the medium long term.
- This shows that investors over time have sold at lower prices to get out of the index, and indicates negative development for the market.
- An inverse head and shoulders formation is under development.
- A decisive break of the resistance at 20786, ideally with an increase in volume, signals a further rise.
- HSI is between support at points 19400 and resistance at points 20800.
- Overall assessed as technically slightly negative for the medium long term
*EP: Enter Price, SL: Support, TP: Take Profit, CL: Cut Loss, TF: Time Frame, RST: Resistance, RTS: Resistance to be Support LT TP: Long Term Target Price
*Chart Pattern:
DT - Double Top | BEARISH | RED
DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | GREEN
HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | RED
REC - Rectangle | BLUE
iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | GREEN
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
Hang Seng Index (HSI) WCA - Inverted Head and Shoulders PatternHello and thank you for taking the time to read my post. Today, we analyze the Hang Seng Index (HSI) on the weekly scale, focusing on a classic price pattern called the "Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern." The Hang Seng Index is the leading stock index in Hong Kong and one of the most important in Asia. It tracks the share prices of the 50 largest and most traded companies on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, representing about 57% of the total market capitalization on this exchange.
Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern:
The inverted head and shoulders pattern is a bullish reversal pattern that occurs at the end of a downtrend. It is characterized by three troughs or valleys, with the middle one being the lowest (the head) and the two on either side being relatively higher (the shoulders). The pattern is completed by a horizontal line called the "neckline," which connects the highs of the shoulders. In a nutshell, the formation of the inverted head and shoulders pattern signals a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend.
Remember, this is just a brief introduction to the technical aspects of the inverted head and shoulders pattern. As you delve deeper into this topic, you'll discover more nuances and practical applications that can enhance your trading strategies.
Additional Analysis:
Upon analyzing the HSI weekly chart, we observe a downward trend since 16/02/2021, with the blue diagonal resistance line representing the general trend. As classic chart pattern analysts, our attention is immediately drawn to the textbook example of an inverted head and shoulders pattern, clearly defined with the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder. The symmetry between the shoulders is perfect, and the pattern has been forming for an impressive 491 days. This is noteworthy because the longer a price pattern remains consistent, the more powerful the eventual breakout will be.
We cannot predict when the right shoulder will form and break out, but we can see that the price supports the symmetry line in the form of a bullish engulfing (orange mark). The price is currently still below the 200 EMA, which is another indication that we should continue to watch this price pattern closely and not jump to conclusions. Thus, we patiently await our opportunity.
Conclusion:
The Hang Seng Index (HSI) weekly chart showcases an Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern, reflecting a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. By closely monitoring the pattern's intricacies and the market's subtle cues, traders can be better prepared for any potential price action in the future. As always, it's essential to consider risk management and proper position sizing when trading based on chart patterns.
Please note that this analysis is not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence when investing or trading.
If you found this analysis helpful, please like, share, and follow for more updates. Happy trading!
Best regards,
Hong Kong Stock Index (It shall swing UP higher)
View On Hong Kong Stock Index (13 Apr 2023)
HSI is in
* Uptrend in short term
* Uptrend in Mid term
* Downtrend in Long term
We are seeing a good swing back UP in HSI and it shall go UP higher.
20400~20600 will be the immediate resistant for now but the price shall break UP sooner or later.
DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too.
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Thank You!
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HSI - Falling Trend Channel [MID TERM]- HSI is in a falling trend channel in the medium long term.
- An inverse head and shoulders formation is under development.
- A decisive break of the resistance at 22780, ideally with an increase in volume, signals a further rise.
- The index has support at points 19500 and resistance at points 22600.
- The RSI curve shows a rising trend, which is an early signal of a possible trend reversal upwards for the price as well.
- The index is overall assessed as technically slightly negative for the medium long term.
*EP: Enter Price, SL: Support, TP: Take Profit, CL: Cut Loss, TF: Time Frame, RST: Resistance, RTS: Resistance to be Support LT TP: Long Term Target Price
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
9988 | Alibaba - Wave Analysis | Inverted H&S TFW Target +100%Wave analysis and chart pattern projection:
> A possible valid inversed head & shoulders pattern in weekly timeframe, potentially 2-wave correction and rebound to retest the neckline resistance for a strong breakout.
> TP Inverted H&S @ 1.618 and 2.0 fibonacci +100+%
> MACD doubled bullish divergence signal golden cross above baseline indicating bullish move.
Stock- MON: HSI Trend Status w/ 21 yrs backtesting, week11
2023, week 11
HSI: at 19,161
According to the latest market update, the Hang Seng Index ( HSI ) is still not in a upward trend, with a current long close at 19,161 points.
Use backtesting to evaluate and make objective trading decisions. - PresentTrading
#HSI
Hang Seng bounced strongly! Is the China bull back?Something bullish is happening in China, potentially primarily due to the reopening and all the liquidity injections by the PBoC. China never raised rates while slowly adding liquidity to markets. We saw a significant capitulation when Xi became emperor for life by removing everyone that could potentially cause trouble to him from the CCP, as well as when we first saw the first sanctions on China by the US. It's clear that the US and China are in a cold war, and the US will keep imposing sanctions on China... Many of which might come back to bite it. Now there is talk about capital controls, yet China holds many US bonds and has been part of why inflation stayed low for so long. Of course, China has many issues, but so does the US, and what they both have in common is that they will have to print a ton of money.
What's critical here is that the Hang Seng has been trending lower for a while, especially since China started taking 'back' Hong Kong, but then started bottoming around peak China fears (never reopening + Taiwan invasion). For now, an invasion seems unlikely, and all the concerns about capital controls could not have the result everyone thinks they will. The market is incredibly oversold, and Chinese investors may be forced to repatriate their capital and start investing there.
''The Hang Seng Index can be used as a bellwether for markets worldwide. If the gain in Hang Seng holds, that would be a bullish indicant for markets worldwide. If the low is violated, that would suggest continued decline in other markets as well. We say this because the late January and early February market peaks were a worldwide phenomenon. Stocks, Bonds and Commodities all peaked in tandem, suggesting a shift in the underlying perception of the fundamentals from one of continued growth and declining inflation to one of slower growth or recession accompanied by persistent inflationary pressures.''
Milton W Berg CFA
@BergMilton
I agree with Milton, and to me, this looks special. First, HSI bounced right at the Yearly pivot. The bounce came to a massive rally from the lows, which swept the double top, hit resistance, and had a decent pullback. The bounce straight into the monthly pivot, which usually acts as a magnet. So we have gone from pivot to pivot very quickly. When looking at CN50, we get an extra confirmation that something bullish is happening. Again, massive rally, significant pullback, bounce at support, reclaim yearly pivot, a break above the monthly pivot, slight pullback, and sit right above the monthly pivot. Technically both look bullish to me.
Only a close of 2% below the recent lows would make me think that the market is about to keep going lower. Until then, I assume that both these markets are in a bull market and that China isn't as uninvestable as many make it seem to be. Of course, if you are a US investor, you shouldn't be investing in China, but for most of the rest of the world, China seems fine (for now). They keep getting cheap oil from Russia, they are politically stable (nobody to go against Xi), won't invade Taiwan anytime soon (based on what they saw in Ukraine), and Japan also kept printing and didn't raise rates (capital flows into China)
Hang Seng: Wait for It… ☝️Hang Seng is still busy in the magenta-colored zone between 20 867 and 18 707 points. On the one hand, the index has slowed the descent and could very well have completed wave (4) in magenta by now, readying itself to take off. After all, the requirements for the current movement’s conclusion have already been met by touching at the magenta-colored zone. On the other hand, Hang Seng still has got some room to expand wave (4) a bit deeper and could indeed make use of the whole magenta-colored zone. As soon as this low is established, though, the index should turn upwards and climb above the resistance at 22 798 points. However, there is a 36% chance that Hang Seng could develop wave alt.A and alt.B in turquoise first, the latter leading it out of the magenta-colored zone. In that case, wave alt.C should push the index back down into this area, where it should finish wave alt.(4) in magenta as well before moving northwards again.