Short HSI (Hang Seng index)was about a 1% away from official bear market territory, sitting 3% away, for now. $GXC $SPY
Hang Seng HSI
Hong Kong Stock Index HSI (Aug 2018)This will be my views of Hong Kong Stock Index HSI (Aug 2018)
Please make sure to read the "update" comment as there will be changes along the way.
Cheers.
S0nic
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. We may or We may not take the trade.
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We, Sonicr Mastery dot com is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
HSI ShortSimple Range play with support and resistance analysis. Nothing complicated nor bombastic. Happy Monday!
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Correlation & recent divergence of Australia & Hong KongInteresting divergence in the past few months in what are normally two highly correlated indexes (Hong Kong's HSI and the Australian index). Hong Kong is the red line, whereas Australia is the blue line. Note the stark divergence where HK is heading south, while Australia has yet to head downward.
Note that the lines represented here are the 100-day exponential moving averages of the index to smooth things out.
A-Share dilemma - break of trend or meteroic rise?Looking at the long-term trend, the Chinese A-shares are trading within a pretty well defined range since the mid 1990's. This includes two meteroic bubbles that have risen as quickly as they've crashed. Despite these bubbles forming, they haven't caused any massive damage to the Chinese economy such as what we saw when other large bubbles broke down (such as Japan's 1980's bubble, or the US dotcom bubble).
Interestingly, each time the trend hit the lower end of the range, we've seen the a-shares shoot up meteroically. Fundamentally, I'm rather bearish on the Chinese market right now. They have an insane debt bubble combined with the news events coming from "trade war" problems. Most of the bubbles in the Shanghai Composite have come as a result of the Chinese govt's constant injections of liquidity and easing. This provides a window into a view of the debt bubble.
Recently, the lower end of the range was once again just hit, and we also have come to learn that the Chinese gov't is already back to monetary easing through various means. Based on history, you would think we may see another meteoric rise in the Shanghai composite index, but I'm not sure that will happen this time around. China is painted into a more difficult corner this time around, and they are more wary about stock bubbles like this nowadays. I think given the fundamental picture, we're more likely to break the long-term trend downward. If the debt bubble does in fact burst, this will certainly be the case. With that said, I think it may be prudent to buy some deep OTM leap calls on the Shanghai Composite (you can use the ETF $ASHR) to capitalize on a potential blowoff bubble formed from more easing once again.
HSI Range playHSI have been ranging from 29000 and 27800 for while. This make range play possible from buying at the bottom of the range or shorting at the top. On a weekly time frame, the trend is on the downside thus it might make more sense to short at the top range then to buy at the bottom. The decision to long is purely personal preference. If you are uncomfortable with counter-trend trading, it is understandable to forgo this trade. Eventually price will breakout on either side. The argument on which side it will breakout is equally strong, thus I will not jump the gun by making any pre-assumption and unnecessarily exposing myself to additional risk. Should it break down, adhere to the Stop Loss at all cost.
Remember guys, as retail trader, survival is more important than profits. If you survive long enough, profits will come automatically ;)
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Resistance, Resistance, ResistanceThe Hang Seng Index has been running in the range of 27800 - 29000 since July.
Last Friday, we saw a +400 points of strong rebound after hitting a lower low of 27745.
The daily turnover has also increase from 70 billion to 100 billion, which may indicate support and potential reversal.
From the 1-hour chart, we see that the index has reached the top of the downward trendline, i.e. around 28220.
The next trading day would be critical. If the index goes beyond 28330 (top of downward trendline of 1-hour chart with wick), we may see a breakout pushing the index further to the next resistance level.
From the chart, we also see levels and levels of resistance ahead if the index goes up.
During a time which the trade war is progressing and China is under heavy capital control, we do not think that the index would break through these resistance levels.
Our trading strategy:
- SHORT position if the index does not stand above 28330.
- If the index goes beyond 28330, monitor at resistance levels and look for SHORT position
- The target would be around 27330, which is 1000 points from 28330.
Feel free to leave comments / share your idea!
Bear Unleashed Hang Seng Update.A little update on this Index that is perfectly consistent with the February "Bear Unleashed Hang Seng" chart.
Best wishes to all.
Hang Seng Elliott Wave Analysis: Correction HappeningHello Traders,
In this Elliott Wave Analysis, we will have a look at the Hang Seng Index.
Short-term view suggests that the rally to 31521.13 high on 6/07/2018 peak ended blue wave (2). Down from there, the decline to 27990.45 low is proposed to have completed blue wave (3).
The internals of blue wave (3) unfolded as Elliott Wave Impulse structure with extension. This suggests the sub-division of each wave lower (i.e. red wave 1, 3, and 5) unfolded as 5 waves structure. Below from 31521.13 high, Red wave 1 of blue wave (3) ended in 5 waves at 30874.1 and red wave 2 of (3) ended at 31242.86 high.
Then down from there, red wave 3 of (3) took place in extended 5 waves & ended at 28169.1. Up from there, red wave 4 of (3) ended at 28962.29 high, and red wave 5 of (3) ended at 27990.45 low. Above from there, the index is correcting cycle from 6/07 peak in blue wave (4) bounce.
The internals of that bounce is expected to unfold as an expanded flat. As far as a pivot from 6/07 peak (31537) peak stays intact, the index is expected to fail 1 more time within blue wave (5) towards 27588-26540 target area next.
Afterward, the index is expected to find buyers there for larger 3 wave reaction higher at least. We don’t like selling the Index
Hong Kong Stock Index (* A nice rebound shall be underway)Hong Kong Index
We are seeing a very potential early signs bullish rebound.
If all works well, it can swing back to 29280 and eventually 30200 region.
I am NOT with the BEAR anymore.
Press "Like" and "Follow". We will help you become a better trader
Sonic
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. We may or We may not take the trade.
The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation.
We, Sonicr Mastery dot com is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
Looking for Breakout in HSIThe Hang Seng Index has been in a downward trend for one month (since 8 June) and currently undergoing a downward channel.
The US and China tariff and trade war issue has been affecting market environment as well as investor sentiments for the period.
We have finally come to 6 July, the effective date of the US tariff, and we witnessed some heavy rebound in the trading day.
Looking for a breakout and the big move on the direction in the next trading day.
Will it be a chance of REVERSAL or CONTINUING WITH THE TREND?
Feel free to leave comments / share your idea!
Long Entry: 28500
Short Entry: 28100
HSI Futures: Top of range short This is a follow-up from my 15 May post; HSI futures completing an intra-day ABCD and making a lower high (78.6% retracement) with a negative MACD cross-over. Initial target would be 30,550, -2% for an eventual test of bottom of the range at 29,500.
Dow Looking DownAs we come to the EOM, a pretty well defined Monthly bear flag can be seen in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Alongside this bearish setup, the current trade war is posing a big threat to global economies. Rising interest rates, tax cuts in a growing US economy, trade war threatening growth across the globe, this is not a time to be complacent in my opinion.
Furthermore, take a look at China's primary index (Hang Seng -- HSI) on the Monthly chart. A very similar pattern occurred there before the heavy selloff that we are seeing now in China. Could definitely see some turbulence ahead. But as always, no guarantees.
HSI might be in a downward waveAs stated in the diagram. HSI might go downward as the fibonacci ratio match. The target of the wave may be 26000.
If we see any strong resistance at 31000 or 31400 in this week. It is very likely that HSI will follow this trend to move
Hang Seng Long Short IndicatorEverything should be self explanatory in the chart. Of course - this will work until it doesn't, but for now, it seems like a pretty damn reliable indicator.
Go long SPY when the Hang Seng Index hits the lower range.
Sell SPY long and short the Hang Seng Index (hong kong stocks) when the top end of the range is hit.
The manner which this has historically timed major market tops and bottoms is rather ridiculous. The data speaks for itself to be honest.
No clear trend for Hang SengSince last February, Hang Seng is been oscillating around 31k. You can further check my analysis in my blog for this market and others in myintradayportfolio.blogspot.com
Yield is back to an alarming level...After sharp fall in late May, bond yield is back to an alarming level 2.97%, very close to 3%. Bond yield may exceed 3% before FOMC meeting. It's time to be cautious on the over-bought equity market again...
HSI captured in sideways trend channelHSI moves within a neutral trend channel. It tested the upper limit and is seemingly now on the way to the lower limit. In between we find a fib retracement 78.6% - but this one seems to be weak.
The indicators are confirming the new short trend (RSI broke the trend to down, MACD is heading to negative zone with trigger line short before crossing the signal line).
I think HSI could rebound again on 29.500pt - but if the support is broken a further fall is possible. In this negative case the next support would be fib retracement 61.8% at 28.917 pt.
The fall out of the trend channel to the bottom would signal a bearish trend. A possible EW-corrective movement could follow as mentioned in the chart.
HSI target HIT, short AlertI have been carefully monitoring HSI Hengseng and its range. I have been correct on several occasions and once again I alerted short yestarday and it has paid off. look out for 200MA to find support for today.
HSI: Top of range for 5% short tradeThink the chart says it all, HSI futures at top of consolidation channel which sets us up for a nice short to test the bottom of the range at 29550, for 5.5% downside potential. This has a clearly defined stop out range and gives optionality for a potential channel breakdown to test a ABCD target of 27500.
