HSI ShortsPrice is revisiting previous swing high levels. Although resistance is around 26400, price can definitely continue to increase further before coming down. Thus it is only logical to place your Stop Loss above the previous Swing Highs. The Stop Loss level of 26800 is part of my strategy. If you are following this trade, do not adjust the stop loss. Rather, adjust your lot sizing instead. This is one of the very few Low Risk, High Reward Trade. Personally I have increasing my risk for 1% to 5% (thus 5x the usual profits).
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Hang Seng HSI
$HSI The final is yet to come.There is a classic single zigzag and the final is yet to come.
Now there is a 4th wave in impulse C with a target of 27000. This goal is conditional since the 4th wave is an ascending triangle and into the final wave E, which has now begun, it can both penetrate level a-c and not reach it.
Next will be the final 5th wave, and most likely it will be truncated (since the peak of the first wave is 24390) with a target at 24500
$HSI Let's take a deeper look at the current situation.Based on Fibonacci levels, we see that the impulse is not yet complete. And the fall that is happening now - wave 4 of this impulse. Since the drop was very strong, wave 5 will most likely be truncated and stop in the range of 34000 - 35000. After that, a long-term correction will begin which should return the values to the bottom of 4 waves, That is, to the level 24400 - 24000
This analysis will not be true if HSI falls below 24364.
In the following analysis, we will try to understand the current correction to determine whether it has ended.
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HSI Long Term Analysis. Looks optimisticUnfortunately not enough data. Graph shows values from 1987.
We proceeded from the value of 100 points in 1964 as the beginning of the first wave.
Probability that the correction comes to an end, but the goal in 24093 should be achieved in any case.
If the index goes below this value - the next target is 21889 points. This is the most negative scenario. In this case there is an extremely high probability of forming a triangle and the correction will be very long.
Upon completion of the correction target 42757
Hang Seng Long Short UpdateUpdate to the original post.
Since the Hang Seng Index EWH hit the upper bound in January 2018, it has since dropped as much as 22%. Shorting from the point of touching the upper bound would have beaten the market significantly this year across all indexes.
Current situation
We currently bounced off a resistance line, the same one we bounced off after the 2012 euro crisis. But the situation is a bit different here and I expect either a retest or a break. Considering none of the issues in China / Europe have been resolved and are only getting worse, I don't expect this to be a permanent bounce like it was in 2012, and I think we test the lower green line as we have done historically. Given fundamental problems in China and Europe, I see a potential for breaking the lower boundary, which could result in an enormous bust potentially. This would likely signify a banking crisis of some sort in Asia.
Original Trade Strategy Around This Chart
Everything should be self explanatory in the chart. Of course - this will work until it doesn't, but since the 90's the HSI index has called market tops when it hits it's upper resistance line, and has called market bottoms when it hits its lower resistance lines. You can see how perfect this has timed markets with the correlation to the SPX index in the lower chart. In short, you can avoid drawdowns in markets by being long SPX during the good times, and going short HSI during the bad times.
The manner which this has historically timed major market tops and bottoms is rather ridiculous. The data speaks for itself to be honest.
Hong Kong Stock Index (HSI) (Nov 2018) This will be my views of Hong Kong Stock Index (Nov 2018)
Please make sure to read the "update" comment as there will be changes along the way.
Cheers.
S0nic
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. We may or We may not take the trade.
The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation.
We, Sonicr Mastery dot com is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Hong Kong Stock Index (HSI) (Oct 2018) This will be my views of Hong Kong Stock Index (Oct 2018)
Please make sure to read the "update" comment as there will be changes along the way.
Cheers.
S0nic
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. We may or We may not take the trade.
The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation.
We, Sonicr Mastery dot com is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
rely on trendline to long or short Hong Kong future HSII use trendline to trade Hong Kong future HSI. After HSI breakthrough the first steep declien trendline. Now still need to wait until HSI price breakthrough the gentle decline trendline. It might take couple of days. If HSI price is below the exit stop lose price, would be good position to short.
HSI: Hang Seng Index - Technical Perfection Hang Seng Index Update HSI 13th September 08:13 Bst
We were looking for a good bounce from the 26265 line which
is the top of the gap to left of price and the meeting of fixed
and dynamic lines of support.
The low was 26219 before rallying 550 points.
It's now testing the first minor resistance level at 26920 from
the previous low and meeting profit taking in near term but
should push higher to 27547 and the upper dynamic given
more time.
12th September 00:51 Bst
Hang Seng Index HSI
Now approaching support potential at 26273-26095 range
which should induce a good bounce back towards 27547.
* For global markets updates and trade set-ups in real time
please see links at top-left of main page.
Hong Kong Stock Index (Sept 2018) (Buckle Up Dorothy!)This will be my views of Hong Kong Stock Index (Sept 2018)
Please make sure to read the "update" comment as there will be changes along the way.
Cheers.
S0nic
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. We may or We may not take the trade.
The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation.
We, Sonicr Mastery dot com is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Hong Kong Stock Index HSI (Aug 2018)This will be my views of Hong Kong Stock Index HSI (Aug 2018)
Please make sure to read the "update" comment as there will be changes along the way.
Cheers.
S0nic
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. We may or We may not take the trade.
The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation.
We, Sonicr Mastery dot com is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Correlation & recent divergence of Australia & Hong KongInteresting divergence in the past few months in what are normally two highly correlated indexes (Hong Kong's HSI and the Australian index). Hong Kong is the red line, whereas Australia is the blue line. Note the stark divergence where HK is heading south, while Australia has yet to head downward.
Note that the lines represented here are the 100-day exponential moving averages of the index to smooth things out.
A-Share dilemma - break of trend or meteroic rise?Looking at the long-term trend, the Chinese A-shares are trading within a pretty well defined range since the mid 1990's. This includes two meteroic bubbles that have risen as quickly as they've crashed. Despite these bubbles forming, they haven't caused any massive damage to the Chinese economy such as what we saw when other large bubbles broke down (such as Japan's 1980's bubble, or the US dotcom bubble).
Interestingly, each time the trend hit the lower end of the range, we've seen the a-shares shoot up meteroically. Fundamentally, I'm rather bearish on the Chinese market right now. They have an insane debt bubble combined with the news events coming from "trade war" problems. Most of the bubbles in the Shanghai Composite have come as a result of the Chinese govt's constant injections of liquidity and easing. This provides a window into a view of the debt bubble.
Recently, the lower end of the range was once again just hit, and we also have come to learn that the Chinese gov't is already back to monetary easing through various means. Based on history, you would think we may see another meteoric rise in the Shanghai composite index, but I'm not sure that will happen this time around. China is painted into a more difficult corner this time around, and they are more wary about stock bubbles like this nowadays. I think given the fundamental picture, we're more likely to break the long-term trend downward. If the debt bubble does in fact burst, this will certainly be the case. With that said, I think it may be prudent to buy some deep OTM leap calls on the Shanghai Composite (you can use the ETF $ASHR) to capitalize on a potential blowoff bubble formed from more easing once again.
HSI Range playHSI have been ranging from 29000 and 27800 for while. This make range play possible from buying at the bottom of the range or shorting at the top. On a weekly time frame, the trend is on the downside thus it might make more sense to short at the top range then to buy at the bottom. The decision to long is purely personal preference. If you are uncomfortable with counter-trend trading, it is understandable to forgo this trade. Eventually price will breakout on either side. The argument on which side it will breakout is equally strong, thus I will not jump the gun by making any pre-assumption and unnecessarily exposing myself to additional risk. Should it break down, adhere to the Stop Loss at all cost.
Remember guys, as retail trader, survival is more important than profits. If you survive long enough, profits will come automatically ;)
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Resistance, Resistance, ResistanceThe Hang Seng Index has been running in the range of 27800 - 29000 since July.
Last Friday, we saw a +400 points of strong rebound after hitting a lower low of 27745.
The daily turnover has also increase from 70 billion to 100 billion, which may indicate support and potential reversal.
From the 1-hour chart, we see that the index has reached the top of the downward trendline, i.e. around 28220.
The next trading day would be critical. If the index goes beyond 28330 (top of downward trendline of 1-hour chart with wick), we may see a breakout pushing the index further to the next resistance level.
From the chart, we also see levels and levels of resistance ahead if the index goes up.
During a time which the trade war is progressing and China is under heavy capital control, we do not think that the index would break through these resistance levels.
Our trading strategy:
- SHORT position if the index does not stand above 28330.
- If the index goes beyond 28330, monitor at resistance levels and look for SHORT position
- The target would be around 27330, which is 1000 points from 28330.
Feel free to leave comments / share your idea!