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Hang Seng HSI

Will HSI change its trend?Are there even Signs of Reversal ? - Candlesticks below MA200 , Far from MA200 - Candlesticks moving below ichimoku clouds - Downtrend Line B met expectation of 1:1 w.r.t Line A, within a shorter time with higher momentum Take a look at the price Volume traded for the past 1600 days (to the range where last candlesticks were at this area). Total volume at this area seems thin. Where is the support? Something to ponder: if the candlesticks reaches price of 24 to 26 (where more volume are traded at that range), will the holders cash in or cut loss? However, if we zoom in, seems like a triple bottom is almost forming. A confirmation we will be waiting for will the breakout of the neckline. Overall sentiment still doesn't look good. Mixed signals with downtrend still strongly intact.
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by Inquiring_H
15-19/8 weekly Playbook Overall, $HSI remains cautious until heavy-weighted names earnings release. Therefore, I expect $HSI will continue tight range bound between Monday and Wednesday. Of note, I want to see how the price reacts around the 2H belt as it entered the belt. Price scenario: Open/bid above 20078-096, build up time/volume, would test these 20230s area and see if the sellers are still there. If we do manage to break higher, would tgt 20500 and 20633 along the way. 192-230 would be reasonable targets for longs. If this 20230s area fails, then can revert all the way lower and test 19455. Open/offer below 20000, want to test 19873/842/825. Below this we’re more than likely going to tgt this 760-600 weekly low volume area where I expect responsive buying. On the way lower would look at 549/519/440 for support. Depending on the action, if I dont see strong reaction from sellers prior to hitting this 760-600 area, I think we can bounce and test 20167 and 20236.
HKEX:HSI1!
by sherlou_0505
#ALIBABA looking structurally bullishReally like the way Alibaba is bottoming here. Not only have we broken the steep downtrend which has held price down for the last year, but we have broken horizontal resistance at $120 while holding above a new daily uptrend line. Today is the first break above the 200dma since Feb 2021, which is another encouraging sign. Should we hold this breakout above $120 on the daily close today, next targets are $130 which was a major weekly pivot bottom from 2018. Further targets sits at 138.50 and then 161.
NYSE:BABALong
by MarcoOlevano
1
HK50 is need of direction - levels to watchChina has been performing well of late as capital flows towards the geography with the most accommodative central bank and increased liquidity. After a solid rally from the mid-May lows were seeing the HK50 print a series of lower lows and highs, although the wicks are getting longer suggesting there is still solid buying pressure into weakness. We see the price now curbed at the 20-day MA, ahead of the rising TL support. Our analysts see the TL holding for now, with a renewed push into 22,310 offering increased confidence of a push higher and the potential for trending conditions. An upside break of 22,100 would give this call increased confidence. If the TL gives way, we see double top neckline support at 20595, where a break here targets the May lows and even 18,850. Levels to guide on the daily timeframe
PEPPERSTONE:HK50Long
by Pepperstone
1
Will HSI finish strong for Q2?2 weeks ago we discussed why the HSI:HSI rebound rally would be slowed by profit takers (). The choppiness in the index we saw for the past 2 weeks was also due to the discrepancy between the China and US equity market. While the SSE Composite SSE:000001 still held above 3300 level, the US equity indexes all broke through the 2022-May low due to the increasing worries of inflation and recession risk. Hong Kong as a market sitting in between the east and the west taking different messages from each side, fluctuation is inevitable in such a situation. Strong rebound in the US equity market last Friday In the recent Friday session (Jun-24), the US equity markets showed a strong rebound and paired back most of the losses from the past 2 weeks and stood above the May-2022 low again. That means the breakout to the downside we saw last week is likely to be a false breakout. While the main direction of the US equity market is still downward, it could take a break at this price level (to accumulate more energy before diving further). This break also means alignment between the US and China markets, which create the necessary condition for Hong Kong HSI to continue the rally to the upside. Xi Jinping is joining the HKSAR 25th anniversary event Next Friday, July-1 is the 25th Anniversary of the establishment of the HKSAR (also known as reunification with China). Last week Xi Jinping has confirmed that he will physically attend the anniversary event , which marks the first time for Xi to step out of mainland China since Covid outbreak in 2020. This gesture re-emphasizes the importance of Hong Kong to China. Reopen to revive Hong Kong Economy Back in early June the Liaison Office of Central People’s Government (LOCPG, Beijing’s main body overseeing Hong Kong) had hosted a meeting with foreign business chambers to collect “suggestion” and “advice” on how to revive the Hong Kong business environment. All chambers had expressed that the existing quarantine measure is the biggest roadblock for local business. With the new chief executive of Hong Kong, John Lee coming onboard next month, all eyes will be on him to iron out the reopening details of Hong Kong with mainland China and the rest of the world. Personally I am optimistic about the relaxation of quarantine measures as soon as the coming Q3. Reopening of Hong Kong is actually a one-stone-two-birds move for China. First, it can serve as a welcoming gift for John Lee from China, to help him rebuild trust between the government and the people in the city. Second, reviving Hong Kong economy, especially its financial market, is one of the crucial steps for China to save its downturning economy. I believe the announcement of the reopening would be one of the major events in Q3 that send the Hong Kong HSI Index to the upside. Technical Discussion HSI index retested the 20 days and 50 days moving average without going through, reconfirming the support at these levels. The strength also pulled the 20 days moving average above the 50 days creating a bullish technical signal. If we follow the upside rally narrative, below are the levels the index must break through to confirm the sustainability of the trend: 22142: 09-Jun, choppy zone peak 22523: 04-Apr, rebound peak from market plummet in Mar-2022 However, one needs to be extra cautious if the index drops below the low of the choppy zone at 20697 again , as this would mean the rally narrative discussed above is still premature. Long positions in the index as well as other Hong Kong listed stocks should be trimmed partially for risk management.
HSI:HSILong
by geoffreyip523
HSI rebound rally will be slowed by profit takerWhile my view toward HSI remains bullish since the end of May after the index has decisively surged through its major resistance of the 50 days moving average, one need be aware that the index has entered a choppy zone due to the emerging selling pressure from profit taking of short term traders. That said, one should avoid breakout buying as higher price might trigger more profit taking orders causing slow down in upside price movement. No matter how affirmative one is, it is always important to keep your head up for potential developments that are aligned with, or against your point of view. Overconfidence will turn intuition into “into-wishing” . Below are some of the actions I would closely follow in the coming weeks to detect market sentiment change: 1. Market reaction after the US CPI and FOMC rate decision Last Friday the worse than expected US CPI figures pushed down the US equity market. Asian equity index futures (such as HSI, A50, NK225) in the night after-hours trading session also reflected the plummet. However, no matter how risk-off it was on Friday, it is worth noting that all of the 3 major US equity indexes ( SP:SPX , DJ:DJI , NASDAQ:NDX ) actually didn’t even reach the May-20 low. That means the CPI surprise indeed was not so surprising that it provided no new information to the market. What we need to observe is how the market moves when it reopens on Monday. However, major movement might only come after Thursday’s FOMC rate decision. 2. Chinese investors risk appetite Compared to HSI, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSE Composite Index, SSE:000001 ) better reflects Chinese investors sentiment. SSE Composite Index has creeped back up to the 2022-Apr rebound peak level around 3290. At this major resistance level, the market will require positive news or policy release to sustain the bullish sentiment in order to surge through, otherwise the natural profit taking force will drive the market into consolidation or even reversal. With the increasing correlation between Hong Kong and the Chinese stock market, any change in Chinese participants' sentiment can move HSI greatly. 3. Non-Chinese fund FOMO buying of Chinese tech If follow the Southbound fund flow from China to Hong Kong closely, 4 weeks ago Chinese investors actually have started to rebuild their position in major tech firms such as Meituan HKEX:3690 and Kuaishou HKEX:1024 (Note: Alibaba HKEX:9988 is not available for direct purchase by Chinese investors due to secondary listing and weighted voting right issue). Only until the recent 2 weeks after the earnings release of Alibaba and Meituan, non-Chinese investors finally woke up from the Chinese bearish dream and started FOMO buying. An interesting observation is that since last Thursday when HSI briefly touched 22100 level, Chinese investors have turned from net buying into net selling of Chinese tech firms. That means for the past 2 days, Chinese investors were effectively selling the stocks to the non-Chinese. Once the non-Chinese find out they are the only one buying, there might be some retracement until the price at which Chinese players are comfortable to start loading up their position again. 4. Risk of China new round of lockdown Only 10 days after the end of Shanghai lockdown, Shanghai is restarting mandatory mass testing across districts over the weekend. Whether this event is a false alarm, or will evolve into a new wave of city lockdown is a major uncertainty. While most of the upside is already priced in from the current rally, one should actually prepare the sharp reversal to the downside when risk of lockdown emerges.
HSI:HSI
by geoffreyip523
RBA and China Are Bullish For Aussie- Elliott wavesAussie is trying to wake up as RBA started hiking rates while China is going out of lockdowns in June, so seems like wave C is already in place, unless this is still a higher degree leg A from the 0.7661 highs. Well, at this stage it's too early to confirm any new long-term bottom, but at least in the short-term we should be aware of more upside after recently broken trendline resistance in the first leg, so more upside can be coming after pullback. Support is at 0.7/0.7030 which can be also a base of a right shoulder on 4h chart. Also, HSI has made a nice turn up recently which can be positive for the Aussie.
Long
by ew-forecast
HSI - short-term correction is comingComment : 1) FundFlow+ indicator - BEAR signal is here, a short-term retracement is expected to be happen soon 2) Tricol+ indicator - still strong/no retailer bar (turquoise) Support & Resistance : S : 21737.94 +/- the index would enter correction if it fall below today's low DISCLAIMER: Analysis above SOLELY for case study purpose, not a PROFESSIONAL ADVISE. This analysis does not provide any trading advise and buy or sell. Trade at your own risk. Trade only after you have acknowledged and accepted the risks involved.
TVC:HSIShort
by TheWinningDay
Rebound is around the corner for Chinese developersLast week we discussed the scenario of Hong Kong/China equity rebound due to the political environment change in China. HSI did end up close above the May open, creating a hammer candle in the monthly chart, and stood atop the 50 days moving average. Both showed strong bullishness from the chart perspective (Last week note here: ) As a continuation of the rebound story, earlier there were some developments on the Chinese developers front, which there might be a distress revaluation opportunity for traders to make bets on . Update on Chinese Developers After almost 2 years since the Chinese government imposed “3 red lines” rules on developers, which later leaded to the Chinese high-yield bond collapse in 2021 (majority of Chinese high-yield are issued by the Chinese developer), on May-17 the Chinese government finally showed sign of relaxation on the crackdown, by supporting some developers to issue domestic bond to ease their cash insufficiency . This development is under the backdrop of Chinese economic slowdown, as well as poor monetary/fiscal policy transmission capability with weakened property market. As of today, there are 5 non-state-backed developers that have confirmed on the domestic bonds issue: Longfor (HKEX:960) Country Garden (HKEX:2007) Media Real Estate (HKEX:3990) CIFI Holding (HKEX:884) Seazen (HKEX:1030) Note that investors of the newly issued bond also have the option to get protection by purchasing the credit risk mitigation warrant (CRMW), of which China Securities Finance Corporation (state-owned) is the underwriter of the warrant . The important message here is that, in order for the Chinese government to take a “short-put” position, they must have vetted the Chinese developer names and shortlisted the above 5 companies for the most solid fundamentals (and political correctness). Essentially, the Chinese government is doing stock picking for us . Among this batch of developers, I would recommend Longfor (HKEX:960) and Country Garden (HKEX:2007) . In the sector-wide distressed situation, companies with more deployable cash or financing capability actually have the optionality to acquire and consolidate weaker developers to strengthen their future market share. Longfor and Country Garden are the largest and healthiest financials among the list. Comparing Longfor (HKEX:960) and Country Garden (HKEX:2007), the former actually have demonstrated stronger confidence among investors as one can tell from the severeness of price decline for the passed year. Hence if you are a less active investor who wants to buy this idea, go for Longfor (HKEX:960); for those who have the bandwidth for active management, Country Garden (HKEX:2007) might have more room for trading around positions with leverage. Trading Plan for Country Garden (HKEX:2007) Albeit the fact that I am writing a long side execution plan, please note that the stock technically is still in a bear trend, which we still see selling pressure near 20 and 50 days moving average . Hence this is not a trend following, but reversal-plus-breakout play, where more time is needed for the turnaround and breakout from the downtrend resistant levels . Right now the stock is flirting around the 20 days moving average. One might want to place some protective bet at current level (in case of sharp upside movement with overnight news), or wait for the following 2 key level for turnaround confirmation: 5.4-5.8 : 50 days moving average and May-3 spike 6.75 : Rebound peak from March market plummet For the bearish trend to continue, the stock must go through the 2 recent troughs. According to the trader’s conviction to the rebound stock, one might choose to scale in (i.e. average down the position cost) or scale out (i.e. partial cut loss) the position at these levels: 4.1 : May-12 bottom 3.3 : Mar-16 bottom, lowest price made in march market plummet In terms of trading vehicle selection, apart from holding the stock outright, good news is that Country Garden (HKEX:2007) also has stock options available for trade. By using call option one can be immune from sharp drawdown in case of overnight bearish news, also better cash management for the natural leveraged nature of options. Note that Hong Kong listed stock options are less liquid compared to those in the US, I would recommend to choose expiration less than 3-4 months for narrower spread and more active quotation .
HKEX:2007Long
by geoffreyip523
HANG SENG The 6 year Support is holding. Potential 25k move.Hang Seng (HSI) broke and closed today above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since February 2021. Despite the weakness since early April, the index hasn't yet broken or even come close to the March 16 low, indicating that we have a long-term Support. That is reasonable technically as that level (18250) is a 6 year Support formed by the February 12 2016 low and as long as it holds, pull-backs should keep finding buyers. The natural target next is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and towards the end of the year, the 0.618 Fib (around 25000), which would be a symmetrical move with the 2016 bullish break-out from the long-term correction. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:HSILong
by TradingShot
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