Hang Seng HSI
HangSeng waiting to “boom” = Bright future HongKong. 6/Nov/22Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index have backed to “square one”?.. As its price slightly below its 25 years level ( 2020 - 1997 ).. BUT chart tell me different stories as I trade what I see “first” then what I think “second”.. where my “thinking” possible have bias and prejudice. You probably see lot of “doom” comments from western media or “westerner educated” Chinese’s “expert “ themselves...
$HSI Hang Seng Index Can Rise Up - Inside and FCP Zone NowTraders, I have been covering indices in depth latetly and what I see a common pattern is that US Indices has started to bounce back. US3 has been gaining for last 3 weeks or so, SnP500 is lower but gaining and NASDAQ is the only one which gained slowest. Hang Send Index (HSI) has reached 2008 levels but forming an M pattern. It is now inside an FCP zone which can push it upwards. Now think about the consequences of that.
Please support this analysis by liking and sharing. 👍🙂
Rules:
1. Never trade too much
2. Never trade without a confirmation
3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too
✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums.
✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis
✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions.
Take care and trade well
-Vik
____________________________________________________
📌 DISCLAIMER
The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only.
Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions.
____________________________________________________
Hang Seng Index - When will it bounce?Over the weekend, a lot of synchrony and less optimistic outlook was posted.
So, here we take the opposing view and look for when the Hang Seng Index might bounce off what it finds as a bottom.
From the weekly chart, it is very clear that the HSI has had two consecutive hard years, since 2021. An early January rally fizzled out and downdrafts take over for the rest of the year. This end of 2022 however, appears to hold a rather oversold HSI, and with the TD Sequential almost ending, it might be worth to look at possible TD Flips and then a good effort to bounce.
While the TD Sequential buy Setup is almost complete, the index is now also far out of the 3.5 SD on the Bollinger Bands. Like an overstretched rubber band, this appears deeply oversold. MACD is not yet letting up so there is some downside to dowside consolidation to occur before a bounce can be mounted. Upon re-entry within the 3.5SD band, that is where a TD Flip and a bounce might occur.
This is projected to be about 15,500-16,000; about another 1000 points from where it is today.
Any close below the red support line means that the bull case rebound is further extended, and may need a relook. Otherwise, a spike down and then a consolidation might happen, with a break above the resistance line (green) to indicate an about turn from bear trend to bull trend. This event should take place about mid-November up to Decemnber. By then, there should be enough follow through...
Watch for these first:
1. TD Seq Setup completion and perfected, with a following TD Flip;
2. A re-entry into <3.5 SD of the BB band;
3. a set of higher lows and once broken the resistance line; and
4. MACD crossover on the Signal line, and then above zero.
Wait for it...
PS. Note the green ellipses that go back to 2016. These are times of downtrend that see a reversal from the bottom.
HSI Rebound Is Highly ProbableHSI has negatively reacted to China's 20th Party Congress, but is now very likely to experience a strong support on 2W charts.
As you can see, we have reached a very strong support zone, from which HSI has rebounded everytime.
I am personally going long on NASDAQ:BILI
as it's analysis is also showing a very strong likelihood for short/mid-term rebound since the asset has fallen by roughly -93% from it's top.
HongKong - Most oversold in decadesHSI is at the most oversold in decades, touching the bottom of its monthly uptrend channel.
Valuations are at its rock-bottom extremes with very poor sentiments, on the back of the Congress Party closure without good news.
Reward-to-risk is high, especially if reversion to the mean happens.
29/9/2022 PLAYBOOKHKEX:HSI1!
Intraday pivot: 545/505 as long as these held, bulls are in control
#marketprofile #volumeprofile #orderflow #chartanalysis #chartporn
*****
I use this platform as a way to organize my thoughts and plan for my personal trading for the sessions to come. Do not misconstrue this newsletter as actionable trading advice. I am simply sharing my thoughts as a market operator through this newsletter, which helps me get my head straight and hold myself accountable for the next day. It is very possible that I am flat wrong in all of my scenarios.
Time To Keep An Eye on ADRsWith China opening up and realizing a zero Covid policy doesn't work we should begin to see the country get itself back on track. In addition, China will be buying millions of barrels from Russia, soon.
I've attached my levels on the Hang Seng Index. Keep an eye on those ADRs BABA, JD, NIIO, etc.
Hang Seng Index - Off the cliff...No good news at all as the HSI drove off the cliff...
The weekly chart shows that two weeks ago, the support was broken, and all technical indicators are bearish.
The Fibonacci projections put the downside target at 14,600. A very substantial downside burn.
Only green shoot observed is a possible bullish divergence forming...
The daily chart shows the accentuated off the cliff type of slide down. It is a little dramatic and should be looking for some consolidation around the 16500 level.
Still short on Chinese Equities Despite the numerous stimulus by the Chinese government, HSI's previous rally seemed to be short lived.
This is in fact, align with my expectations. Reason because: 1. Continuous lock-downs/fears of lockdowns. No one will know when will the city go into lockdown, putting all production etc on hold. 2. Investors' confidence. Despite the credit stimulus, it seems like it is not really helping the demand in the property market.
My expectation is however, to go long on Chinese Equities at 18117. And I am expecting this to be around the end Oct-Early Nov period after the china politburo meeting whereby we could possibly expect the following: 1. Even more stimulus. It seems that the Chinese can withstand further rate cuts but they might not be willing to do so to ensure the stability of the yuan. 2. Ease of quarantine measures. However, point 2 in my opinion, might not have that huge of an effect as expected. Reason being: 1. There is no flights to Mainland China. However, we might expect more flights to Mainland China after the meeting 2. There is still chance of massive lockdowns despite the one that happened in Shanghai earlier this year.
Can the Hang Seng cobble together a sympathy bounce?Whilst the overall trend and sentiment point lower, yesterday’s false break of support could provide a potential bounce for the Hang Seng index.
Despite its downtrend on the daily chart, the HSI produced a strong bullish engulfing candle on the 25th of August which showed strong demand around 19,200 – a level which has held since May (and a similar candle occurred). Whilst it printed a bearish pinbar and then fell back below 20,000, the fact it took 6 days to unwind the gains of the engulfing candle can be seen as a form of strength.
Also note that we saw a false break of the 19,200 support area yesterday despite the negative sentiment, and the day closed with a bullish hammer. Furthermore, the hammer formed and closed above key support and the weekly S1 pivot point, and a bullish divergence formed on the RSI.
The near-term bias remains bullish above yesterday’s low and for a move back to the 20-bar eMA, or weekly pivot point. Whereas a break beneath yesterday’s low (or daily close) assumes its next leg lower has begun and brings the 18,400 region into focus.
Hang Seng Index - initiating analysis coverageFor personal interests, analyses on the HSI will be initiated...
The weekly chart closed on a bearish note, at a 5 year low. Close to a suuport at 19,200, if it breaks down -250 points, there would be more downside to the last low of March 2022, at 18,235.
As with many of the analyses done this weekend, a lot of indications that the last low will be revistied.
The daily chart has a breakdown over he last week, and daily technicals are crossing under. These are indicative of more downward momentum.
Overall, bearish aura prevails for the Hang Seng Index.
Will HSI change its trend?Are there even Signs of Reversal ?
- Candlesticks below MA200 , Far from MA200
- Candlesticks moving below ichimoku clouds
- Downtrend Line B met expectation of 1:1 w.r.t Line A, within a shorter time with higher momentum
Take a look at the price Volume traded for the past 1600 days (to the range where last candlesticks were at this area). Total volume at this area seems thin. Where is the support?
Something to ponder: if the candlesticks reaches price of 24 to 26 (where more volume are traded at that range), will the holders cash in or cut loss?
However, if we zoom in, seems like a triple bottom is almost forming. A confirmation we will be waiting for will the breakout of the neckline.
Overall sentiment still doesn't look good. Mixed signals with downtrend still strongly intact.
HSI Bullish on Macro?PBoC cut its 1 year and 5 year LPR again in an attempt to spur its credit markets.
As expected we saw a huge jump in HSI this morning. However, I think this rally might not be long lasting because of investors' sentiments. Based on the technicals, it seems to be in a downward channel as well. My take is that unless it breaks out 19860, it will probably reverse back down.
HSI UpdateMFI hit overbought last night and several companies announced they are going to delist from the US after their market closed.
There is a gap in futures, but China doesn't always fill those. Snagged some PDD puts on the gap fill, and added a few on this pump. Will wait until EOD to decide if to bail or add. Despite the delisting news, Chinese ADRs are melting up wit the US market, lol. When the algos pump, they pump everything.
15-19/8 weekly Playbook
Overall, $HSI remains cautious until heavy-weighted names earnings release. Therefore, I expect $HSI will continue tight range bound between Monday and Wednesday. Of note, I want to see how the price reacts around the 2H belt as it entered the belt.
Price scenario:
Open/bid above 20078-096, build up time/volume, would test these 20230s area and see if the sellers are still there. If we do manage to break higher, would tgt 20500 and 20633 along the way. 192-230 would be reasonable targets for longs.
If this 20230s area fails, then can revert all the way lower and test 19455.
Open/offer below 20000, want to test 19873/842/825. Below this we’re more than likely going to tgt this 760-600 weekly low volume area where I expect responsive buying. On the way lower would look at 549/519/440 for support.
Depending on the action, if I dont see strong reaction from sellers prior to hitting this 760-600 area, I think we can bounce and test 20167 and 20236.
HSI UpdateChina's tanking again, lol.
I guess I should have paid attention to the easy play. Was so hung up on CPI that I forgot all about China even though PDD is near the top of my watch list.
Oh well. Can't chase it now.
I know there's a lot of bears following me, a lot of time if I feel bearish and the US market is melting up I short a foreign ETF or in this case ADR. Missed out on this one.