HSI1! 2022 JAN 03 WeekHSI1! 2022 JAN 03 Week
Trade remains guided by trendline.
If breakout of 23695 and is supported, this may signify
change in trend.
Daily: Downtrend. Price bar closed off high = supply is
present.
H4: Ranging between 22964 - 26395. Last bar Upthrust
bar shows supply is present. Price may test 23160 - 22964
in the short term.
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels
Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
Hsi1
HSI1! 2021 Dec 20 Week
HSI1! 2021 Dec 20 Week
Trade remains guided by trendline.
Short preference still in place to short on
test of previous higher levels or at top of
channel line at lower TF
Weekly: Downtrend still. Weakness remains
Daily: Downtrend, current market has no desire for higher price.
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels
Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI1! 2021 Dec 06 WeekHKEX:HSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Dec 06 Week
Trade remains guided by trendline.
Market trading in a 500pt rotation, will it be accumulation or a pause?
If long, wait for price to come down on low volume and find support.
If market rotates, stay out
If market breaks resistance and turns support = long
If market breaks resistance and closes below it, will short when resisted.
Weekly: Low volume down bar closing on low = Supply weakening, BUT
not change in behavior yet.
Daily: Low volume down bar closing near off low = some support BUT
no change in trend yet
H4 = High volume down bar closing near low = weakness
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels
Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : ) HSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Nov 29 Week
HSI1! 2021 Nov 29 Week
This week's trade plan will still be guided by the trendline.
If long, wait for price to come down on low volume and find support.
If market rotates, stay out
If market breaks resistance and turns support = long
If market breaks resistance and closes below it, will short when resisted.
Weekly: Average volume down bar closing near low = weakness
Daily: High volume down bar closing a little off low = sone demand
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels
Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI1! 2021 Nov 22 Week
HSI1! 2021 Nov 22 Week
Market again tested 247XX. It was not ready to go up . Trade will be guided
by the trend line and will only long if market exits trend line and is supported.
If long, wait for price to come down on low volume and find support.
If market rotates, stay out
If market breaks resistance and turns support = long
If market breaks resistance and closes below it, will short when resisted.
Weekly: Average volume down bar closing near low = weakness
Daily: High volume down bar closing off low, some demand present.
Market came down on lower bearish volume, supply may be exhausted.
H4: Friday's market came down on relatively higher volume, but no result,
there is some support / bears are exhausted at the moment.
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels
Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI1! 2021 Nov 15 WeekHSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Nov 15 Week
Market took out temporary support 24737 before making a
recovery. 24737 again provided a long opportunity. Market should
next be trying for 26000 which is the upper end of the rotation zone.
If long, wait for price to come down on low volume and find support.
If market rotates, stay out
If market breaks resistance and turns support = long
If market breaks resistance and closes below resistance, and resisted, will short
Weekly: Average volume up bar closing off low = weakness. Supply is present
Daily: Narrowing of spread, and up bar closing in middle = Undecisive.
Wait for next bar for demand/supply to surface.
H: Friday's market came down on bullish volume, smart money buying as
price comes down.
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels
Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI1! 2021 Nov 08 WeekHSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Nov 08 Week
Per analysis, market has come to test the rotation area (grey box) and
found 24737 as temporary support, could be a long opportunity
If long, wait for price to come down on low volume and find support.
If market rotates, stay out
If market breaks resistance and turns support = long
If market breaks resistance and closes below resistance, and resisted, will short
Weekly: Average volume down bar closing on low = weakness
Daily: Exit of downtrend line on strong bullish volume.
Tested previous rotation zone, market may be presenting a long opportunity.
H: Friday's market came down on bullish volume, smart money buying as
price comes down.
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels
Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI1! 2021 Nov 01 WeekHSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Nov 01 Week
Market was resisted at 26227 and theme of the week was short. No sign of
strength yet. Probably may test previous rotation (grey area).
If long, wait for price to come down on low volume and find support.
If market rotates, stay out
If market breaks resistance and turns support = long
If market breaks resistance and closes below resistance, and resisted, will short
Weekly: 2 bar Bearish reversal, Average volume down bar = Weakness
Daily & H: Market came down on reduced volume, bearish momentum may be waning.
But no confirmation of strength yet.
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels
Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI1! 2021 Oct 25 Week
HSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Oct 25 Week
Weakness as price approached previous resistances.
If long, wait for price to come down on low volume and find support.
If market rotates, stay out
If market breaks resistance and turns support = long
If market breaks resistance and closes below resistance, and resisted, will short
Weekly: Average volume wide spread up bar closing off high = weakness
Daily: Average volume down bar, previous bar saw price rejection,
shortening of thrust = weakness
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels
Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI1! HK33HKD 2021 Oct 11 WeekHSI1!
HSI1! HK33HKD 2021 Oct 11 Week
Weekly: Wide spread up bar closing at high, volume is low = no demand. Weakness TBC
Daily: High volume up bar closing on high = Strength.
H3: Narrow spread as price approached top of range. Could be trapping longs if
rotation is not over yet.
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels
Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI1! 2021 Oct 04 WeekHSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Oct 04 Week
Weekly: Average spread up bar closing near high, we see some strength returned.
Daily: Market temporarily resisted at 24620-24680. The narrow spreads on 01 Oct
due to start of the China holiday week.
H3: Higher lows observed. Bar A effort with little result = temporary weakness.
As price converges at the recent highs, wait for entry opportunity on signs of
strength.
Strategy for Short (Test and Reject)
Strategy for Long (Test and Support)
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI1! 2021 Sep 20 Week
HSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Sep 20 Week
Weakness played out last week and market was supported at about 24587, this is the 50% of the Feb 2016 - Jan 2018 uptrend.
If there is a breakdown and this becomes resistance, market would see more down side.
The last up move from 20 Aug - 08 Sep took more days and volume than the one before it while we see more ease of downward
movement.
Weekly: Wide spread down bar closing off low net change from previous down bar is narrow = some demand
Daily: Up bar closing off high = weakness
H3: The last wide spread UHV up bar is SOW. Market exited down channel. Will its demand line become resistance or will price
attempt to re-enter the channel?
Strategy for Short (Test and Reject)
Strategy for Long (Test and Support)
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels:
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI1! 2021 Sep 13 WeekHSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Sep 13 Week
Last week's preference to keep to long last week was fruitful.
Weekly: Up bar close below 50% of bar = weakness
and a third off the high = weakness.
Daily: Price is attempting to test recent high in the red zone, nothing meaningful yet on
daily chart.
H3: Market moving up, but shortening of thrust. Effort no result = weakness
Long will be at the channel's demand line or when price is
marked down to test previous UHV wide spread bars.
Strategy for Short (Test and Reject)
Strategy for Long (Test and Support)
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels:
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI1! 2021 Sep 06 Week
HSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Sep 06 Week
Last week's preference to keep to long last week was fruitful.
Weekly: Up bar broke previous week's high but close below its high
and a third off the high = weakness.
Daily: Upthrust + weakness in the background = weakness
H4: Upthrust and supply came in = Weakness has appeared. However
no follow through on the UHV down bar at the moment, with 25748 acting
as immediate support.
Opportunity for short should price return to test the high.
Long will be at the channel's demand line or when price is
marked down to test previous UHV wide spread bars.
Strategy for Short (Test and Reject)
Strategy for Long (Test and Support)
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels:
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI1! 2021 Aug 30 Week
HSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Aug 30 Week
Last week's long preference worked well.
24306 was a previous high demand area, will buyers
come in to support should price reach there?
Daily: No Demand tiny spread, background = lower high.
Last 2nd and 3rd bar effort not result for the bears.
H4: 20 - 25 Aug we see the highest bullish volume emerged on
the background of this downtrend.
Also a spring in the 24780 - 26900 range.
Prefer to long on test of low.
Strategy for Short (Test and Reject)
Strategy for Long (Test and Support)
Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels:
- 26900 - 26584
- 25955
- 25682
- 25330
- 24780
- 24306
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
Buyers to move. Is the triangle almost complete?For the flows here, buyers are clearly in control and have been over multiple decades - although since 2016 we have been inside a compression range which looks set to blow later in 2022. Strong support comes into play at 23,500 which should be enough to cap the outflows before continuation in a bull market towards a measure 40,000 breakout target.
↳ To the downside sellers are itching to test 23,500 and it looks within reach. It is dangerous to step in till we complete the moves, because the eye of the law is on it.
↳ After 23,500 comes the slingshot attempt towards 40,000, which will likely be a Q222 story, as will also reinstate the secular bull market and allow gains in confidence to play an important part in capital migration from West to East.
↳ To sum up, there is the following zig zag in play; 25,000 (current levels) -> 23,500 (strong support) -> 40,000 (strong resistance)
Of course on the fundamental side, the rocking of the cradle from the nanny state continues and we are entering into the final chapters of the handover. Naturally when choosing a map in equities you should take into account its elasticity with the currency and the threats it can deliver, highly recommend tracking the Chinese Yuan over the coming weeks and months for any signs of distress as we enter into strong support levels.
HSI1! 2021 Aug 23 WeekHSI!!
HSI1! 2021 Aug 23 Week
Last week's long levels become short levels market did not even try to test the immediate high.
Supply proved stronger. Market returned to test the UHV, and it looks like a spring has occured
Weekly: Wide Spread sown bar closing off lows = Demand has come in.
Daily: Wide spread down closing in middle, rejection of lower prices. Reduced bearish volume on the test.
H4: Demand has come in to support the market. Bearish effort no result, reduced bearish volume on test of previous low.
Prefer to long on test of low.
Strategy for Short (Test and Reject):
- 26900 - 26584
- 25814
Strategy for Long (Test and Support):
- 25400
- 24780
- 24306
- 23870
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HSI1! 2021 Aug 16 WeekHSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Aug 16 Week
Gentle ascend, intermediate trend channel established.
High probability short trade from the upthrust.
Tested Historic UHV High from 27 Jul
Weekly: Up bar close above middle
(some strength, but supply still present)
Daily: Strength coming in
H4: Supply still present and Lower High
Strategy for Short (Test and Reject):
- 26900
- 26584
Strategy for Long (Test and Support):
- 25815
- 25560
- 24743 - 24930
- 26340 (ultimate confirmation if there is acceptance
at this price followed by strong bullish volume)
Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
2021 Aug 09 Week HSI1!
HSI1!
HSI1! 2021 Aug 09 Week
Last week's market:
= No follow through in breakout - Weakness
- Upthrust and returned to rotation zone = weakness
- Yet to test the Historic UHV from 27 Jul
- Market in 650pt rotation (grey box)
Monthly = UHV wide spread down bar closing off low (Change in behavior takes time)
Weekly = Potential demand, close on middle 26042
Daily: No result from Reversal1. Last bar closing off low, no sign of strength yet
H4: Supply still present. (Weakness appears on Up bars)
Immediate Resistance 26340 - 26483
Intermediate support 25560 - 25650
Strategy:
1) Price reaction off Red/Green Zones
2) Price reaction off boundary of rotation zone (grey box)
2021 Aug 02 Week
OANDA:HK33HKD
2021 Aug 02 Week
Last week a historically UHV down bar appeared. Strength always appears on UHV ultra wide spread DOWN bar.
Weekly: Market has rolled over with a wide spread down bar closing in middle (UHV) = Indecision.
Price bounced off Monthly channel demand line.
Daily: Shakeout + Reversal = Strength. Market was resisted at 26340 temporarily.
Given the UHV, there should still be supply to clear.
H4: Bar A UHV ultra wide spread bar closing off low = strength. Automatic reversal after climatic Bar A
has reasonably good bullish volume. Test of the lower region of bar A is to be expected.
Bar B test of low has off the low and level with bar A, some demand is present.
Strategy:
(1) Red/Green zones = preferred entry
(2) Dotted Red/Green is to indicate late entry, but risk will be higher since SL is further away
Remember to follow and like if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
Hang Seng Index Futures at Key Inflection Point, Top to Resume?After tumbling recently, Hang Seng Futures are back to retesting a former trendline from 2020 as new resistance.
This is also around the often pivotal 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 26078.
The near-term 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) still offer a downside bias, potentially acting as key resistance in the event prices materially push higher.
Otherwise, downtrend resumption entails clearing key support, which seems to be the 78.6% level at 24708, as the index flirts with bear market territory.
HSI1!