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EUR / USD - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIESThis is an ACTIVELY managed BLOG CONTRIBUTION, which will be UPDATED DAILY with comments and trade ideas. | This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions | In the following analysis, I highlight a possible SHORT / LONG scenario in the > FX:EURUSD < We focus on the technical KEY points and KEY areas which will be relevant in the next hours & days. The highlighted scenario is supported by the higher timeframes, which we are ACTIVELY monitoring in an existing post. This can be found under the following name: " EUR / USD - HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIES " (Listed under this post at "RELATED IDEAS") As soon as the temporary direction of the price emerges, I will update the post accordingly, with entries, stop-loss & take-profit levels. How do I save an idea so that I receive a notification when it’s updated? MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI) We are at a superior "Point of Interest", which are the "Higher Low" from 2020 (1.06359) & the "Higher Low" from 1991 (1.06030). These points are just fought over in the "higher time intervals" (day or week) and are decisive for the following movement direction. (SHORT) If these two points are successfully broken, then the next approach target would be the "Higher Low" from 2023 (1.05160). (LONG) If the market can hold these levels, then the next "HTF Resistance Level", the "Lower High" from 2022 (1.07868), will come into play. In the smaller timeframes, a consistent momentum rise can be seen, which, however, does not have a heavy weighting in the valuation because we get a new "NEWS event" almost every day this week. For this reason, it becomes very volatile in the market, and every day it requires a re-evaluation. # Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = LONG & SHORT Z - Don't let the noise blind you; recognize its face and use it for yourself - Z | ZielIstDieAutarkie | If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much. Thank you and happy trading! Z
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
6
DXY / USD - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIESThis is an ACTIVELY managed BLOG CONTRIBUTION, which will be UPDATED DAILY with comments and trade ideas. | This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions | In the following analysis, I highlight a possible SHORT / LONG scenario in the > TVC:DXY < We focus on the technical KEY points and KEY areas which will be relevant in the next hours & days. The highlighted scenario is supported by the higher timeframes, which we are ACTIVELY monitoring in an existing post. This can be found under the following name: " DXY - HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIES " (Listed under this post at "RELATED IDEAS") As soon as the temporary direction of the price emerges, I will update the post accordingly, with entries, stop-loss & take-profit levels. How do I save an idea so that I receive a notification when it’s updated? MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI) We are at a superior "Point of Interest", which is the "Higher Low" from the year 2000 (105,560). This point is just fought over in the "higher time intervals" (day or week) and is decisive for the following direction of movement. (LONG) If this point is successfully broken, the next target would be the "Higher High" from 1989 (106,560). (SHORT) If the market cannot conquer this level, then the next "HTF Support Level", the "Higher High" from 1999 (104,880), will come into play. In the smaller timeframes, a consistent momentum loss can be seen, which, however, does not have a heavy weighting in the valuation because we get a new "NEWS event" almost every day this week. For this reason, it becomes very volatile in the market, and every day it requires a re-evaluation. # Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = LONG & SHORT Z - Don't let the noise blind you; recognize its face and use it for yourself - Z | ZielIstDieAutarkie | If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much. Thank you and happy trading! Z
TVC:DXY
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
2
XAG / USD - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIESThis is an ACTIVELY managed BLOG CONTRIBUTION, which will be UPDATED DAILY with comments and trade ideas. | This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions | In the following analysis, I highlight a possible SHORT scenario in the > FX:XAGUSD < We focus on the technical KEY points and KEY areas which will be relevant in the next hours & days. The highlighted scenario is supported by the higher timeframes, which we are ACTIVELY monitoring in an existing post. This can be found under the following name: " XAG / USD - HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIES " (Listed under this post at "RELATED IDEAS") As soon as the temporary direction of the price emerges, I will update the post accordingly, with entries, stop-loss & take-profit levels. How do I save an idea so that I receive a notification when it’s updated? MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI) We are in a superior and inferior downtrend channel, which served as very good resistances in the past. In most price action indicators, we are in over bought areas (HTF) which will be reflected in price action (ITD) in the near term. In the smaller timeframes, a divergence is starting to form, which serves as additional confirmation for the trade in all the resistance areas. In intraday, this calls for a SHORT - SWING - entry, but caution is advised; the price is still not unlikely to break through the levels and continue its rise. # Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT Z - Don't let the noise blind you; recognize its face and use it for yourself - Z | ZielIstDieAutarkie | If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much. Thank you and happy trading! Z
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
34
EUR / USD – HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIESThis is an ACTIVELY managed BLOG CONTRIBUTION, which will be UPDATED WEEKLY with comments and trade ideas. | This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions | In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the > FX:EURUSD < We focus on the technical KEY points and KEY areas that will be relevant in the coming weeks & months. As soon as candlestick closes emerge that suggest a temporary direction for the price intra-day, I create a separate post below. This post will be under a similar name, which is as follows: " EUR / USD - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIES " (Includes: entries, stop loss & take profit levels) Once published, it will be added as a comment, and when this post is saved, you will receive a notification about it. How do I save an idea so that I receive a notification when it’s updated? MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI) Looking at the big monthly chart picture, we can see that we are still in a downtrend channel that started in 2008. The market has been moving up since last September to test the upper trend line of the channel. There will most likely be another run-up attempt by the price, which will come after the current bottoming. In the weekly chart - MACD indicator, one can already see a clear "Bearish Divergence", which argues for an HTF sell-off. However, in the 1-day chart, one can sense a further move to the upside, which will extend the bearish divergence more to the extreme in the higher timeframes. At the current moment of analysis, we are on very strong support areas, which could be the bottom for the next move to the upside. Z - You have to understand the big picture to not drown in the noise of the small one - Z | ZielIstDieAutarkie | If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much. Thank you and happy trading! Z
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
4
DXY – HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIESThis is an ACTIVELY managed BLOG CONTRIBUTION, which will be UPDATED WEEKLY with comments and trade ideas. | This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions | In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the > TVC:DXY < We focus on the technical KEY points and KEY areas that will be relevant in the coming weeks & months. As soon as candlestick closes emerge that suggest a temporary direction for the price intra-day, I create a separate post below. This post will be under a similar name, which is as follows: " DXY - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIES " (Includes: entries, stop loss & take profit levels) Once published, it will be added as a comment, and when this post is saved, you will receive a notification about it. How do I save an idea so that I receive a notification when it’s updated? MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI) The price successfully tested the higher high of 2020 and closed with a strong reaction below it. The "HH" was joined by the upper resistance line of the lower downtrend channel, which is an additional and very strong resistance. From a short-term investment point of view, we should look for a coming correction in the DXY, but it might not be short-lived. The MACD momentum indicator reflects a bullish divergence building up. This again supports the thesis that we are getting, for the long-term picture, further price appreciation in the DXY. This confirms the picture of the "bubble-holding stock market" and the excessive overvaluation of individual stocks and currency pairs. As soon as the divergence plays out, and we see another rise after a correction, we will see a bloodbath in the traditional markets. The needed correction in the traditional markets is long overdue and has been artificially delayed to this day. Z - You have to understand the big picture to not drown in the noise of the small one - Z | ZielIstDieAutarkie | If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much. Thank you and happy trading! Z
TVC:DXY
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
XAG / USD – HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIESThis is an ACTIVELY managed BLOG CONTRIBUTION, which will be UPDATED WEEKLY with comments and trade ideas. | This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions | In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the > FX:XAGUSD < We focus on the technical KEY points and KEY areas that will be relevant in the coming weeks & months. As soon as candlestick closes emerge that suggest a temporary direction for the price intra-day, I create a separate post below. This post will be under a similar name, which is as follows: " XAG / USD - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIES " (Includes: entries, stop loss & take profit levels) Once published, it will be added as a comment, and when this post is saved, you will receive a notification about it. How do I save an idea so that I receive a notification when it’s updated? MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI) The price is below the mid-trend line of the oldest and most influential trend channel, which originated in 1971. Additionally, we are at the upper resistance line of a slightly younger trend channel, which formed in 2011 and has served as resistance since 2020. The "Higher High" of 2008 will serve as our next support, as well as the zone formed around it (21,355 - 22,000). In our recent trend channel, another subordinate trend channel has emerged, which is currently contested. Momentum indicators in the weekly TFs show declining momentum, which is additionally noted in the daily TFs. The daily "moving averages" have all broken through the 200s and are now serving as resistance. Z - You have to understand the big picture to not drown in the noise of the small one - Z | ZielIstDieAutarkie | If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much. Thank you and happy trading! Z
OANDA:XAGUSD
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
12
SPX / USD – HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIESThis is an ACTIVELY managed BLOG CONTRIBUTION, which will be UPDATED WEEKLY with comments and trade ideas. | This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions | In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the > OANDA:SPX500USD < We focus on the technical KEY points and KEY areas that will be relevant in the coming weeks & months. As soon as candlestick closes emerge that suggest a temporary direction for the price intra-day, I create a separate post below. This post will be under a similar name, which is as follows: " SPX / USD - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIES " (Includes: entries, stop loss & take profit levels) Once published, it will be added as a comment, and when this post is saved, you will receive a notification about it. How do I save an idea so that I receive a notification when it’s updated? MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI) The all-time high of 2022, is only 4.56% away from the current top, which is scary in terms of the economic situation. The overvaluation of stocks has reached a point where the fall will result in a hard landing. The institutions and central banks know this and are currently delaying disaster. From a technical perspective, we are below / at the mid-trend line of the overarching uptrend channel. From a subordinate perspective, the price has broken out of a recent trend channel and has not had enough momentum on the reconfirmation. Momentum indicators in the weekly TFs and higher are not meaningful; however, a small bearish divergence can be seen in the daily TFs. There are a lot of support areas standing in the way of a serious sell-off, which would have to be broken first - both scenarios are thus not to be ruled out | LONG / SHORT. Z - You have to understand the big picture to not drown in the noise of the small one - Z | ZielIstDieAutarkie | If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much. Thank you and happy trading! Z
OANDA:SPX500USD
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
XAU / USD – HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIESThis is an ACTIVELY managed BLOG CONTRIBUTION, which will be UPDATED WEEKLY with comments and trade ideas. | This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions | In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the > FX:XAUUSD < We focus on the technical KEY points and KEY areas that will be relevant in the coming weeks & months. As soon as candlestick closes emerge that suggest a temporary direction for the price intra-day, I create a separate post below. This post will be under a similar name, which is as follows: " XAU / USD - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIES " (Includes: entries, stop loss & take profit levels) Once published, it will be added as a comment, and when this post is saved, you will receive a notification about it. How do I save an idea so that I receive a notification when it’s updated? MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI) The all-time high from 2011 has been attempted to turn into support since 2020, which has been unsuccessful to date. At this moment, we are above this all-time high, running it for a retest. A 3-year RANGE has formed under this POI, which will serve as additional support. We are also in a downtrend channel whose upper trend line continues to be contested. Momentum indicators in the weekly TFs and higher are not meaningful; however, a small bearish divergence can be seen in the daily TFs. There are a lot of support areas standing in the way of a serious sell-off, which would have to be broken through first - both scenarios can thus not be ruled out | LONG / SHORT. Z - You have to understand the big picture to not drown in the noise of the small one - Z | ZielIstDieAutarkie | If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much. Thank you and happy trading! Z
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
5
BEEF - POWER PLAYI bought my positions today August 25, 2023 The reasons: 1. Low-risk entry point 2. The stock is up >100% in less than 8 weeks 3. Corrected the least during the pause, less than 25% correction 4. Volume dries up as a sign of less supply coming to the market 5. High alpha stock with a low standard deviation 6. It has VCP characteristics 7. Huge volume on the breakout 8. The theme: Power play. The setups work well in this current market environment The flaw: No identifiable flaws thus far This is a textbook Power Play stock breaks out of a base. I like to see the stock moves constructively in the upcoming days.
IDX:BEEFLong
by rifqonr
BTC / USD – HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIESThis is an ACTIVELY managed BLOG CONTRIBUTION, which will be UPDATED WEEKLY with comments and trade ideas. | This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions | In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the > BINANCE:BTCUSDT < We focus on the technical KEY points and KEY areas that will be relevant in the coming weeks & months. As soon as candlestick closes emerge that suggest a temporary direction for the price intra-day, I create a separate post below. This post will be under a similar name, which is as follows: " BTC / USDT - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIES " (Includes: entries, stop loss & take profit levels) Once published, it will be added as a comment, and when this post is saved, you will receive a notification about it. How do I save an idea so that I receive a notification when it’s updated? MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI) The "Higher Low" of June 2021 has been contested since mid-April this year and could be confirmed as support or resistance with the upcoming weekly close. Prior to the 2017 price rally, the bottom of the existing overarching uptrend channel was formed, at whose mid-trend line (resistance) we are currently located. Additionally, price is holding at the upper resistance line of the downtrend channel, which was formed at the last peak and has so far proven to be a significant directional guide. If this downtrend channel is broken and confirmed, we could see the USD 40,000 approach. The momentum indicators in the weekly TFs and higher are not meaningful; however, one can notice a small bearish divergence in the daily TFs, which argues against the aforementioned scenario. It is necessary to wait and evaluate the weekly closes neutrally, so that in the current noise of news, one does not rely on an erroneous assessment. Z - You have to understand the big picture to not drown in the noise of the small one - Z | ZielIstDieAutarkie | If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much. Thank you and happy trading! Z
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
3
29/08/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $26824.0 Last weeks low: $26045.0 Midpoint: $25266.0 The weekly outlook starts on Tuesday this week due to the bank holiday. Despite a strong decline 2 weeks ago price has stabilised into a much tighter spread, almost like a sinewave across the midpoint. Because of this for me personally there is no clear near term direction, however the longer term direction would seem to be bearish thinks to that new lower high after the pullback. We'll know for sure once a new lower high is posted. If that happens, I would expect most of this years progress to be retraced back down towards the 19k area by the end of the year/Q1 2024. For now there is not a lot to do as LTF chop is very difficult to navigate currently.
by ProR35
BIKE - POWER PLAYI bought my positions today August 28, 2023 The reasons: 1. Low-risk entry point 2. The stock is up >100% in less than 8 weeks 3. Corrected the least during the pause, less than 25% correction 4. Volume dries up as a sign of less supply coming to the market 5. High alpha stock with a low standard deviation 6. A base reset to a proper and crisp pivot on PP setup 7. Huge volume on the breakout 8. The theme: Power play. The setups work well in this current market environment The flaw: No identifiable flaws thus far
IDX:BIKELong
by rifqonr
CPI (June)CPI YoY: Forecast: 3.1% Previous: 4.0% Actual: ? With CPI on the very near horizon, here are my thoughts on what Bitcoin could do in terms of price action: Bullish scenario - We all know that CPI tends to be a volatile event with aggressive whipsaws in price in both directions irrespective of the outcome. Therefore there is an opportunity to capitalise on the frantic LTF price action. For the bulls A good place to enter is the local range low if we see a reclaim after a demand zone sweep. I think this is fairly likely and ideally we see price move to the downside first upon the data release as in general, THE FIRST MOVE IS THE WRONG MOVE... following this initial move to the downside a reclaim would be primed for local highs in my opinion. If there is no reclaim then unfortunately there really isn't much support on the way down as BTC would seek to fill the FVG at 27K. A reaction off this level will leave BTC in a good place to attack 32.5k, reinforced with the ETF narrative and decision coming not too far down the line. Bearish scenario - As was suggested previously, the first move is wrong, therefore the second move is the true move and for the bears it's the opposite to the bulls. If we see price move to the upside upon data release, I would like to see a SFP of the local range highs before entering short with the range midpoint as first target, then range low, then FVG as final target. If that LTF range high holds after being broken, I would like to see a strong wick up into 32.5K resistance and a reaction off this level to the downside and supply liquidity has been taken. Any slow grind up into this level would have me concerned as to BTC printing a swing fail and not just blasting through after consolidating. If that does play out then I would re-evaluate and stay in cash while doing so. Reminder: First move is the wrong move. CPI is usually very volatile and therefor risky. It's easy to FOMO into random positions as a gamble, the market usually wins in those positions.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
BTC volume profile orderblocks On the left side of the chart we have areas of significant volume that pose as problems or areas of potential congestion for BTC as it climbs back up towards new highs. These areas are bearish orderblocks and we can generally expect price to react in a bearish manner off them. Once price gets above and consolidates it becomes new support. As shown by the green areas that we have reclaimed during this rally that started at the beginning of 2023. The POC (point of control) for both the bearish downturn of the previous year and the recent bullish rally are below the current price and that is encouraging. The VAH is acting as support for now, price needs to breakthrough the next bearish OB, once reaching 33K the volume profile shows there really isn't a lot stopping price climbing quickly towards 37.5K where the next VAH and huge bearish OB lay.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
GBPJPY 15M 02/05/2023 Currently, on the 15-minute timeframe, we are in a bearish trend formed by two changes in structure. Therefore, we are currently in a bearish range that goes from 171.604 to 169.952, with the latter being the liquidity point of the current bearish range. We have a demand zone in the area of 171.559 to 171.382, and the second zone is between 172.328 and 172.162. We could expect a reaction in both zones, provided we observe how the price orders approach these areas. Alternatively, we could wait for these ranges to be liquidated and broken to establish a new bullish trend and liquidate the liquidity points of the previously established ranges.
Short
by mdr300896
GBPJPY 1H 02/05/2023 Currently, on the one-hour timeframe, we are in a bullish range that extends from 168.713 to 172.094, with the latter being the liquidity point of the current range. We can look for a bullish reaction once the price reaches our potential area of interest between 169.387 and 168.729. Alternatively, if the price shows a marked downward movement, we could look for reactions to the upside at the second area of interest, which is between 167.368 and 166.431. However, if it reaches this zone with a double structure break, we could expect that the zone would be liquidated.
Long
by mdr300896
GBPJPY 4H 02/05/2023 Currently, in the 4-hour timeframe, we are in an uptrend range ranging from 165.422 to 172.328, with the latter being the liquidity point of the current range. We can also see that the price has left us two demand zones of interest in the areas of 167.388 to 166.431 and another from 165.991 to 165.648. When the price touches these areas, we can look for a reaction in favor of the main trend as long as we see how the price reached these zones. Alternatively, we can decrease the timeframe to follow the ranges that are being created in favor of the trend.
Long
by mdr300896
GBPJPY 1D 02/05/2023Currently, on the daily timeframe, we are in a bullish range that extends from 165.422 to 172.328, with the latter being the liquidity point of the current range. We can also observe that the price has left an unmitigated zone between 167.341 and 166.431, where we can expect a bullish reaction. Therefore, we can wait for the price to reach this zone to anticipate a possible reaction in favor of the trend, or alternatively, we can go down to lower timeframes to see what new ranges in favor of the trend are forming and can be traded.
Long
by mdr300896
EURUSD 15M 28/04/2023Currently, in the 15-minute timeframe, we are in an uptrend range that extends from 1.10158 to 1.09626, with the former being the liquidity point of the range. We have a demand zone at 1.09850. Personally, I would like to see a double structure breakout to the upside before considering a long position, as a single breakout could indicate a re-distribution, making the marked zone more likely to be liquidated. We must wait and see the price reaction or if the 2-hour range is broken with a strong candle.
Long
by mdr300896
EURUSD 2H 28/04/203 Currently, in the two-hour timeframe, we are in an uptrend ranging from 1.09659 to 1.10670, with the latter being the liquidity point of the range. Depending on how the price moves within our potential demand areas, we could consider two zones from a non-mitigated price perspective, which are 1.09865 to 1.09338. The price is currently mitigating the first of these zones, so we could expect a bullish reaction to enter a possible trade or descend to lower timeframes to follow the operable ranges in favor of the trend.
Long
by mdr300896
EURUSD 4H 28/04/2023 Currently, in the 4-hour timeframe, we are in an uptrend range that extends from 1.08960 to 1.10758, with the latter being the current range liquidity point. Following the structure and the ranges that have been created, we can identify two areas of interest: 1.09171 and 1.08571. These are the zones in which we can search for reactions to position ourselves in the bullish movement or alternatively, we could descend to lower timeframes to follow the new bullish ranges that are forming in favor of the trend.
Long
by mdr300896
XAUUSD 26/04/2023Currently, on the 15-minute timeframe chart, we are within a bullish range that ranges from 2009 to 1991, with the former being the liquidity point of the range. Therefore, we could expect a bullish reaction in the zone ranging from 1998 to 1996. As long as the price does not close below this zone with a bearish candle, we can say that the zone is being absorbed in lower timeframes, and we can move down to lower timeframes to position ourselves in bullish ranges.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by mdr300896