USDHUF Major double bullish break-out took place yesterdayThe USDHUF pair achieved a huge double bullish break-out yesterday as not only did it break above Resistance 1 (360.650) but also above (and closed) the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 4-month Descending Triangle pattern. At the same time it closed above its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
This is a major buy signal for the long-term, but even if we keep a short-term perspective, we can now target 367.500 (just below Resistance 2) with a lower risk factor than before.
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HUF
EURHUF Short-term buy signal.The EURHUF pair is attempting to form a new short-term bottom just below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and based on the previous two of August and July, is should take another week to do so. Buy once Friday's Low is re-tested and target the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the long-term Triangle at 397.000.
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EUR/HUF BUYKey Factors Influencing EUR/HUF:
Interest Rates: Decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Hungarian National Bank (MNB) significantly impact the exchange rate. Higher interest rates in Hungary can strengthen the forint against the euro.
Inflation: Higher inflation in Hungary can weaken the forint, while low inflation can have the opposite effect.
Economic Growth: The relative economic performance of the Eurozone and Hungary affects the exchange rate. Stronger growth in the Eurozone may strengthen the euro against the forint.
Political and Global Risks: Political stability in both regions and global economic conditions can lead to volatility in the EUR/HUF exchange rate.
Overall, the EUR/HUF is influenced by a mix of economic, political, and market factors, both locally and globally.
EUR/HUF IdeaThe EUR/HUF exchange rate has shown volatility, with the euro generally appreciating against the forint. This trend has been influenced by high inflation in Hungary and global economic uncertainties, which have favored the euro as a safer currency.
Key Factors
Monetary Policy: The divergence between the European Central Bank's (ECB) tightening and the Magyar Nemzeti Bank's (MNB) efforts to control inflation impacts the rate.
Economic Data: Indicators like GDP growth and inflation from both the Eurozone and Hungary influence the currency pair.
Geopolitical Issues: EU-Hungary relations and other geopolitical events can affect the forint's stability.
Outlook
The future of the EUR/HUF exchange rate remains uncertain. If the ECB continues to raise rates and Hungary's inflation remains high, the euro may strengthen further. Conversely, improved economic conditions in Hungary could lead to a stronger forint.
But so far we have not managed to break through the 400 level, so I expect the direction shown in the picture.
USDHUF Dip buy opportunity right below.The USDHUF pair has been trading within a Triangle pattern since the March 15 2023 High. It has seen 3 Bearish Legs so far and currently is on the 4th. All corrections reversed to a Buy when the 1D RSI hit or came very close to its Oversold barrier (30.00).
We are anticipating another such opportunity to target 370.000 (just below its 0.9 Fibonacci retracement level, which is where the previous Lower Highs where priced).
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EURHUF 1D MA50 buy entry.The EURHUF pair has been trading within a Triangle pattern, which based on the highly symmtric structure of the 1D RSI, may break above its top (Higher Highs trend-line) and transition into a more aggressive Rising Wedge (diveging Higher Highs).
The last Higher Low was priced below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and since the RSI's Channel Down shows we are on the level where the final Low will be priced, we expect a strong rebound next.
The previous Higher High was priced a little below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we set a 403.000 Target (on the diverging Higher Highs and marginally below the 1.236 Fib).
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USDHUF Sell when the 1D MA200 breaks.The USDHUF pair had a bearish break-out on our last analysis (October 13 2023, see chart below) and after hitting our 345.700 Sell Target, it rebounded:
The rebound formed a Channel Up, which again failed and a new downtrend has been confirmed after the price broke below the 1D MA50 (blue turned-line) again. Once the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) breaks as well, we will have a bearish break-out confirmation, similar to October - November 2023.
Our Target is Support 2 at 342.1565.
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EURHUF Sell the bounce.The EURHUF pair gave us a strong sell signal last time we made a call on it (October 13 2023, see chart below) as it made the bearish break-out below the Triangle and breached through Support 2:
The price is now approaching the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been supporting since January 17. The short-term pattern is a Channel Down, a Bearish Leg similar to October - November 2023.
As a result, we are waiting for a potential bounce and sell on the next 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) contact. Our Target will be the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Triangle at 384.000.
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USDHUF: Buy and sell signals depending on the 1D MA200.USDHUF is bearish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.886, MACD = -2.380, ADX = 36.722) as it has been on the decline since October 4th. This selling sequence has stopped exactly at the bottom of the Channel Up pattern, with the 1D MA200 holding precisely for five straight days. As long as it holds, it is a buy signal and we are targeting the R1 level (TP = 375.00). If it breaks and closes the 1D candle under it, sell and target the S2 level (TP = 335.60).
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EURHUF: Bullish reversal imminent.EURHUF is bearish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 35.270, MACD = -1.570, ADX = 36.402) after being rejected on a Double Top on the R1 level (394.675). The downtrend crossed under both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 and is approaching the S1-S1 Zone, above the HL trendline. This is a major buy zone as the 1D RSI also touched the bottom of its Channel Down. We expect a bullish reversal similar to the one followed the August 30th Low. Target the R1 level again (TP = 394.675).
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USDHUF Bearish leg within a Channel Up.The USDHUF pair is trading within a Channel Up pattern, currently extending the bearish leg after a Higher Low on Resistance 1 (375.600). The previous bearish leg hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and then rebounded, so we are expecting a similar development. As long as the pair is closing the 1D candles above the 1D MA50, we will be bullish, targeting Resistance 2 (381.3500) as part of the next Higher High. If it closes below the 1D MA50, we will take the loss and counter with a sell position, targeting 345.700 (Support 2).
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EURHUF 1D MA50 makes all the difference between a buy and a sellThe EURHUF pair is on a peculiar Ascending Triangle pattern, currently supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) near the Higher Lows. The 1D RSI is on a Higher Lows trend-line of its own and as long as those hold, we are bullish, targeting 394.6500 (Resistance 1). If a 1D candle breaks and closes below the 1D MA50, we will take the small loss and open a sell instead, targeting first Support 1 (382.7500) and eventually 378.35 (Support 2).
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USD/TRY is to jump in 2023?For the last months, the Turkish lira has been traded near the all-time lows against USD. I think that demand for the lira would shift soon, and it would trigger a breakout of resistance of 18.7 with the first psychological price target of TRY 20 for 1 USD with consolidation near 25 in the second half of the year.
In terms of technical analysis, I do not see any compelling things on the USD/TRY chart.
Therefore, I decided to look at an exotic currency pair with TRY on one side. I have taken Hungarian forint or HUF. Comparing HUF with USD or EUR , we can say, it is a weak currency that has constantly lost its value for the last 20 years. However, against the weakest TRY, HUF is a king. On the TRY/HUF chart, I see an opportunity to breakout of support of HUF 18.4 for TRY until the end of the year. The first target could be 14 with the chance to drop to 10. Keeping in mind that HUF is a weak currency that is now in a temporary good shape against the world currencies, such a possible forint strengthening against the lira could happen only if the latter drop to the majors.
If TRY/HUF is to be 14, and USDHUF is near its essential middle-term resistance of 380. It means USDTRY would be around 27,14. If TRY/HUF reaches 10, USDTRY would be 38. With a magical macroeconomic policy in Turkey, including jumping inflation , artificially low-interest rates in Turkey , and raising interest rates in USD, EUR, and Erdogan's elections in June (and budget spending increase), it doesn't seem impossible to me.
EURHUF Update: HnS is Breaking Down After Breaking UptrendDo to the huge gap in interest rates between the EUR and the HUF it seems like it will only be a matter of time before a bearish pattern like this were to play out.
This is simply just me revisiting the chart as we have gotten both a Bearish Backtest of the old uptrend and have broken through the neckline of the Bearish Head and Shoulders.
USDHUF - Wait For The Trigger!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
USDHUF is sitting around a daily resistance in blue so we will be looking for sell setups.
on H4: USDHUF formed a head and shoulders pattern but it is not ready to go yet. Before we sell, we want the bears to prove control again.
Trigger => Waiting for a momentum candle close below the gray neckline to sell.
Until the sell is activated, USDHUF would be overall bullish and can still trade higher.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich