Still work to do before the next phase of the PM bull market $375 is the number HUI needs to sustain above to push PM stocks a lot higher.
HUI
Gold futures eyes $2,577 in acceleration of upside impulseA pullback in yellow wave (2) almost hit 61.8% of yellow wave (1).
Now we see the strong minor impulse to the upside.
It can be a part of large yellow wave (3).
The target is projected at the distance of 1.618x of wave (1) with aim at $2,577.
Watch how price breaks above the top of wave (1) beyond $2,086
Risk/reward is 1:2.5, one could get it better if goes on a lower time frame and buys on
minor pullback following minor wave 1 of (3).
Do you see gold futures touching $2,577?
Are we at a bottom for miners?Miners may finally be at or near a medium term bottom. They were up nicely today while gold was down. Also the technical are good. They are at the primary trendline, and there is a bullish RSI divergence. There is major support around 31, but not sure it will get down there.
Gold and Sentiment, Turbo Bear?My favorite ratio for cutting through the noise is an LT view of Gold/Oz($) : HUI (the Gold Bugs Index). Generally when it rises we gold bugs suffer because the price isn't reflecting our buying habits. That's why I'm looking for the next bottom on this chart sometime in July that might coincide with this broadening wedge... A date that keeps recurring for me is June 28th, and I haven't figured why just yet..
The broadening wedge may indicate that some dramatic downside is very possible, I just hope that it's in late summer after some profit-taking. Reasons for hope here:
1] a breakdown from this channel is giving me hope, as sentiment is outstripping gold price performance.
2] it seems to coincide with deep retrace and ultimately a break below the 100Mo MA, the 30Wk Ma, and 30D Ma are firmly below. (Looking for the 30D to cross below 30Wk for TURBO BEAR)
3] downward cloud pressure is huge and respected at this time
See my previous post on GDX/Gold for another view at this pivotal time
Long term analysis of gold and mines versus DJIIn the next next 2 years gold and HUI will rise significantly while DJI will fall by further 50%.
HUI:Gold ratio which is still quite low (0,16) will rise to about 0,45.
Enter mines now and exit after HUI:Gold exceeds 0,4.
Silver structure might have changed. First down then up to 22.50The earlier idea could be completed as structure gets more complex with possible double three WXY to emerge.
The drop into blue box should occur then to make a wave X retracement.
Then the metal could hit 22.50 when another zigzag up in wave Y unfolds.
Gold Update: Wave 5 up could be extended to hit 1921-1965The wave (4) has been completed as per the plan (see related).
The wave (5) could be extended and of the same size as wave (3) and it can hit the all-time high and even higher level of 1965.
"Gold Mushroom" ™️ ©️ Pattern !Behold the rarely seen "Gold Mushroom"™️ ©️ pattern!
Some mushrooms are poisonous! Be careful out here! Always consult with professional mushroom pickers!
Gold update: Extended consolidation in wave 4 - down then up Gold got stuck in an extended consolidation of wave 4, which shapes double three WXY.
The completion of the last wave Y down is expected at the low of wave W around $1658.
Then the last wave 5 , that was widely expected long ago could kick off finally.
The target area is highlighted with a blue box between 1805 and 1921.
B2Gold - Huge Volume TodayThe Breakout is confirming as a Trading Range formed with low volumes during the past few weeks.
Following a few weeks of low activity, very-large volumes were registered today.
Price is heading toward the next Resistance of the upper Ranging Channel at $7.8.
This movement could very easily push the price all the way to the next Resistance at $8.0 to a new all-time high.
Support at $7.25 and $7.5
Gold breaks up triangle to hit 1860-1880Wave 4 emerged as triangle ABCDE.
The price broke above the BD trendline / upside of the triangle.
Target is between 1860 (Fib based) and 1880 (simple upside of trend channel).
Gold Stocks vs Financials : Near Critical BreakoutLong Gold stocks HUI and short Financial XLF ratio close to 15 level breakout. Above and we are off to the races. Note the post 2008 crisis long term outperformance.
Mining index at 2013 &'16 peaks resistance areaTriangle broke, sentiment hot, buying pullbacks $GDX, $GDXJ, $SIL
CDE - attractive entryNYSE:CDE is one of the most volatile ideas in the gold mining space. So if enetered correctly it offers relatively quick and attractive rewards.
Currently idea is retesting major support level, through which it broken up in early November. And if uptrend is to continue in this miner, should not go much lower than current spot.
I am entering with idea to hold it as potential long term holding.
Gold update: Head & Shoulders could emergeI combined both H&S pattern with EW analysis.
On EW side we see the 1st impulse down and now we are in a pullback ABC.
The C wave is pending. It is probably the initial move down in gold within a huge drop down
at least we could see 1200 again and it depends on what structure would unfold then.
Pattern is simple and we should watch the breakdown of the Neckline.
Target is at 1409.
Gold could retest $1237 Gold was falling for a long time without a good pullback.
Now we are in that very corrective move as metal rebounded strongly from the 1180 area.
C=A around the area of the earlier low (1237), this is how amazingly the simple geometry works.
Gold. Short trade. R/R 4.56Gold drops below the triangular consolidation.
Target 1123 (just above earlier low)
Stop 1212 (just above wave E)
Entry 1196 (current)
Risk/reward 4.56
HUI in reversal patternFollowing the negative trend in Gold the HUI index has lost 27% within 2 months approx.
It has left the negative trend channel to the bottom, forming a new and tighter trend channel (red). But also this pattern has been broken.
And now the index has entered a diamond pattern, which is a reversal pattern.
As Gold and Silver also are signalling more strengt, it is possible that the HUI will have seen its low and we´re in front of a new rally.
The indicators RSI and MACD are also turning, confirming the possibility of a new and positive trend.
If the index breaks out the diamond pattern to the top the next aim should be the swing trend line at ~ 160$, which is also the lower limit of the longer negative trend channel. This will be a stronger resistance and it has to be broken if Silver shall continue to rise.
EW: If this has been the low of the last move, it would be the turning point C of an ABC-correction wave.
This is no trading advice!
Silver. Short Opportunity. Target 12-13.66Silver market was undermined with a notorious Flash Crash occurred last summer.
The chart structure was spoiled but at the end of the day if we have enough patience
to wait until dust settles we could see the clear picture again.
I spotted for you both the blue downtrend and the yellow triangle pattern in the wave X on the chart.
It looks like we can gain from the last drop down to the previous low at the 13.65 or even lower to the downside
of the downtrend to the area of 12 handle.
The RSI indicator can't raise its head above the waterline beyond the 50 level and it favors the short.
The invalidation level is set at the finish of the wave "e" of X at the 17.70 level.
The minimum risk/reward then is equal to 2 and is healthily asymmetric.
HUI modest move upThe Index swings within a negative trend channel. It rebounded on the lower limit of the channel, also the fib retracement 38.2% (170). Since march 18 it climbed with little steps to the next resistance - a falling trend line, that is coming from june 2011. This had to be broken - what happened - to confirm the positive move.
The trend line is now support and has been tested several times.
In the last days the index has moved sideways, veering away from the support-line.
While the index stayed on the same level, RSI has rosen - so there is a positive divergence between the index and the indicator with some probality that hte index will close it. Possibly RSI will fall or go sideways - both would not destruct the positive movement; unless the support doesn´t hold!
HUI has much pace to the upper limit of the trend channel which is at around 200. That would be a gain of 11% from today.
Once reached the limit we have to analyse if the momentum is strong enough to break through the resistance. Shortly behind there is a swing trend line and a double fib retracement! - I think at least at these levels we have to think about taking profit.
No trade advice!
