Market Update 9/27/22 Structure FormingTIMESTAMPS:
________________________________________
Intro 0:00
APPL What I want to see 1:32
Going Over Price Movements 1:44
DXY & VIX 9:36
BTC 10:48
ETH/BTC 16:09
DOGE 17:08
XRP 17:32
________________________________________
Same video structure as always. I go over what I want to see regarding APPL (the Market King outside indices 💪) and then I go more in-depth about what happened today and then go back over what I want to see again and then in to the usual, BTC, ETH/BTC, Doge, and XRP cryptos.
Average I want to see us start slightly above is 151.75. Starting slightly under looks worse, but I want to see the lower time frame structure collapse as well. IF you check the stream near 14:30 EST you will notice that they (bulls) do a good job of not allowing the price to start under the 30Min 375 hull, which would cause a drop to a weak range that would most likely fail.
From a week perspective, I still want the price to stay in this range. These last two weeks have just been a whole lot of over selling, followed by over buying. The Day time frame 375 Hull coming down on us is certainly concerning, as it will align with the 4HR 200 and 500 averages
and also where the fib level resides (155.50). While it creates a nice area to push through if we can get above it, an INSANE push can happen, but that is also because when things line up, it generally means its really bearish, and its not that people are buying it, but that its shorts getting wrecked and people covering their shorts, that pushes it up.
👁👃🏽👁 Cya tomorrow at 9:15 EST as usual.
Hullmovingaverage
Market Update 9/26/22TIMESTAMPS:
________________________________________
Intro 0:00
APPL 0:25
Going Over Price Movements 5:00
BTC 8:34
VIX 12:34
Indices 13:18
APPL What I want to see Recap 14:30
USD/WTI 16:08
DOGE 17:25
XRP 18:12
ETH/BTC 19:28
________________________________________
Video Sums it up. The average ceiling is around the 4HR hull at 151.81. Depending on where we start there might be mayhem in the coming days or even tomorrow. The main plus that the market had today on the open, was that it was oversold in pre-market, assisting the price in initially pushing up more than it needed it.
I go over it in the video, but the amount the price rose in 1 hour today, was the same amount it rose last Monday in 5.5 hours. Pretty wild stuff. Especially since it got sold down from there.
As usual, I will add timestamps.
Market Update 9/25/22 Why We Cant Have Nice ThingsTIMESTAMPS:
________________________________________
BTC 0:00
Why the Macro Still looks Bad 7:02
ETH/BTC 8:33
DOGE 9:35
XRP 12:55
Closing Statements 19:45
________________________________________
I go over what I think pretty quickly and then go into the nuance of the movements and then a quick overview of ETH/BTC, Doge and XRP. I recommend watching at least the first 4-5 minutes of the video.
Summary: the Macro looks horrible and that hasn't changed. The price needs to reach around 22.4k within the next couple of days for me to even consider a change in mid-term trend. The fact that BTC mainly moves when the stock market is open hasn't changed either.
There are conflicting buy and sell signals on the short term now with converging sell signals on the 2 and 4hr timeframes.
Yesterday's day candle, to make things worse, hit the target we needed to hit on todays candle, 4 hours before it needed to be hit. Furthermore, were collapsing back down to hit the target we need to hit (today), with the downward trend from everything crated on todays day candle thus far.
I mention Doge XRP and ETH/BTC also, but not much has changed with those.
Check near the end of the video for XRP as it is the only one that may have a chance of doing anything. Though, depending on where the day timeframe candle ends for btc things could be bad in the short short term and indicate weakness coming into the stock market this Monday.
Now, I wait for things to happen, so none of this means much to me until we start these candles where I want to see them. I just like to put out my thoughts to better explain my thinking and show how this strategy can be used for the longer time frames and similarly for the shorter time frames.
Also BTC starting the week right under the Day hull and with a down trend on it, generally shows a big drop chance on the short to mid term.
I will be streaming the Week candle change, starting tonight at 19:30 EST (UTC-4). As I always do.
Market Update 9/24/22Short Video. Looking for BTC to end above ~18,819. More specifics are in the video.
Besides that I go over what happened on ETH/BTC, DOGE and XRP and what I am looking for in the coming days.
Take care. Let me know if there is an alt you want me to look at in the future and I can add that to my updates or make one about it.
Market Update/Outlook 9/20/22I am pre-positioned in a small size of OTM puts incase the vix looks bad, affects the premarket tomorrow and I cannot position properly. The places I would get out or where I would add on at, are mentioned in the video.
Its too much work to find them all and type them all, so just watch the video.
Cya all tomorrow at 9:15 EST for the full market day.
Market Update 9/15/2022Tomorrow I will put all of these into one idea and only update that, so you all will see everything in one spot. Sorry for making it difficult (People on tradingview).
Watch the video. The key parts are important and should not be ignored. This is not a video about appl, but the whole market and BTC.
Market Update for Weekend and MondayWhen I look at BTC, the most important question I ask myself is where is the market heading and how close is it to a major inflection point (important support or resistance).
The most interesting aspect of this video is still the VIX and the possible implications of a return to ~17.10. Which is not only an INCREDIBLY strong bounce spot (trend line) from 2017-2019, but also a 25% drop from the current price. It is very possible that the horrible price action on the VIX has been leading to the odd pushing up of the market with only a few clear signals in-between the noise.
I will upload a 20 minute Crypto Alt video idea after this and link that to this idea.
See you on Sunday at 19:20 EST for the end-of-the-Week candle stream.
Market Update: Major Indicies,Appl&BtcSkip to 1:00 to get into the action.
As usual, I don't want to type a lot. Its hard to type what I say in 20 minutes, especially when I talk fast in that time.
Pretty much looking for where Apple starts along with there the SPY starts. Before watching the video, as a new viewer, it is important to know that I heavily weigh Apple as the main indicator of market direction in my analysis. If you stick around or join the streams, you will see why.
For the indices (assuming we start bullish), the NDQ still seems to have the most possible promise tomorrow followed by the S&P and then DJI. I explain this in the video.
Another big indicator for possible movement will be the VIX. Long story short (explained in video) we are at an strong area that I think will most likely start under and send the market up. But there's no reason to really worry about it, because the position is supposed to taken/considered depending on where it starts and obviously it hasn't started yet. (Starts at 3:10AM EST)
Per usual, I have the Last Idea linked below as well as both of my BTC Pitchforks from January. Check them out if you like, it makes it 10x easier to figure out the macro situation on BTC and where the ranges are.
Take care, have a good night/morning. I will see you all tomorrow at 09:15 AM EST.
USD/JPY Possible 30-50% Move Incoming.I explain it in the video. Pretty much looking for a 4 hour or 12 hour candle start above the current level of the 12HR hulls. This price is at 139.592. There is more nuance I don't feel like explaining, because it would take too long. That's why I make videos.
Gains on USD/JPY looks so much better than USD/EUR or Eur/USD. When/if EUR/USD falls under .90, it will almost certainly be better to rotate that instead of USD/JPY. USD/JPY looks very attractive though if it can find support above the above said area.
DJI, SPY, NDQ, BTC, NVDA, SPXS, VIX17 minute video. A lot of information packed in here.
I don't like typing things out when I have 20 things to say, so I'm not really going to do that.
TLDW; Things look bad.
If this video was useful to you, boost the idea so that more people find these the ideas and join the the streams everyday at 9:15 EST: 15 minutes before the market opens.
BTC Comprehensive UpdateYes, this is a 20 minute video. But I speak quickly. This Idea is meant to be watched as a video. If you do not watch the video and only read below, you will not get much from this idea or may get the wrong idea.
Overall I have been short (Not in market) since the reversal in the stock market on April 5th and 6th. I go over all this in the video and I talk fast. So there is a lot of information to see.
I don't want to put investment strategy short, because I don't really want to say that where the price currently is, is a good spot to short. It seems odd to too heavily before any non crypto markets are open, but after they closed for the weekend. Considering the market was pretty obviously bear on Thursday and Friday.
Possible targets if we drop below 28k and have some bad price action are then to around 26.9k and most likely between 22.35k and 23.3k.
For me to feel bullish on BTC I would have to see several things. It is too complicated to explain without showing the chart, but I mention it in the video.
It is worth the watch. I reference the most important things that I look at to determine bitcoin price movement.
Based on the Schiff pitchfork, It looks like the lack of movement in BTC is actually distribution and that we have failed to hold the key channel (Jun 1st). We also had a hard rejection of the top of the current channel on Jun 6th.
If you have any questions feel free to leave them below.
FLM/USDT Looking for PA Above .3181Looking for Price action above .3180. Currently (for me) this is a TP area and wait for action above .3180. It has had good PA above both the H2 and the the H4 TF. It looks reallly bullish though.
Anyway watch the video. Its meant to be watched over this being read.
05/17/2022 Pre Market ThoughtsMacro: Bearish
Micro: Bullish
Just watch the video for the main idea. I make sure to go over my main thoughts within the first 3 minutes. Every thing else is just checking on the normal tickers.
Some of the tickers:
Doge, ADA, BTC, ETH, CVNA, APPL, SPY, AMZN, MARPS, VIX, FL, TWTR, UPST, and BILL.
Nothing has really changed from yesterday. I am looking for that STARTING candle of appl above or around $148. Still expecting it to top around $162.5 in early to mid June, distribute, then back down to new lows under 140.
05/16/2022 Pre Market ThoughtsMacro: Bearish
Micro: High Bullish Potential
I am more bullish than bearish currently.
I would like to see a start in APPL above 148.75. I think that can take us to 162 at the top. I think if Appl breaks though, we could see others like Carvana and Bill go up 30% to their respective supports.
I outline more of the specifics in the video.
I hope you all are doing well.
BTC Update For the DayQuick note, I think being on the bottom of the median line of the Schiff pitchfork is one of the worst places to be bullish, unless good support was just found. Also you can check my idea "How I analyze the market in 20 minutes" video if you want a better understanding of how I use APPL to gauge what direction BTC will take and sometimes vice versa.
I'm still bearish until:
1) I see a good open for APPL and the price of APPL is back within the Day Hull averages on Tuesday.
2) BTC can make some moves above 39.5 (Median of the week timeframe).
I was hoping the start of this week/end of last week would have BTC on the topside of 39.5k, not the bottom side.
From a candle movement perspective, I see no real reason to buy BTC past 41.7k-42.7k on this week candle. And even buying it to that spot makes no sense to me unless BTC can push above 39.5 and hold.
On the month timeframe BTC has yet to touch the bottom of the blue channel (.25 retracement), but since the top of the candle base on the last month was reached and rejected, it feels odd to make the argument that it will hold.
I think 30-31k looks like a decent place to try and find support, though if the stock market is bearish when BTC reaches that area or somehow overly bullish on Tuesdays open, I will adjust the target. 30-31k is the .5 extension on the week and month timeframe respectively.
3 Levels, each looks worse as it pushes down (to me anyway)
39.5k Week Median line
38,988 Week 375 hull
38,036 Month Median line
ATOM SCALPING Atom seems to hit a strong support, while it has broken the Bearish trend line, I think the candlestick pattern( something like an imperfect bearish engulfing) form at the level of a dynamic resistance would lead the price to the support 25.67 to 25.38 USDT for the last time and after formation of a key level we could see growth to 27.49 to 27.67 resistance. also Follow line Indicator along with Hull moving average Band show some signs and signals of change in Trend, so after formation of fist candlestick pattern reversal patterns getting LONG position would be a good choice
BTCUSD Long, relief rally to ATH or bull trap?After this drawdown, BTC seems to be bottoming out near 40k to 35k from bullish divergences appearing.
I believe if we get support here around the 35k PoC levels around the chart, it'll increase the likelihood of an uptrend back toward at least 43k to 47k, another PoC. From there, it is 50/50 as to whether we'll head to overtaking the ATH or bottoming out near the 200W MA at 20k-25k. But a lack of it will allow us to see a 25k btc. For that reason, I set a tight stop loss of around 30k.
On-chain metrics like Reserve risk are nearing levels safe for entry to buy BTC.
Nonetheless, a good long-term DCA strategy would be to buy at every 5K below 40k from here on out, staying out of alts until we've broken out of the dashed yellow trendline.
Heatmap and Volume Profile charts:
imgur.com
Key levels to look out for:
Support
-33k-36k
-23k
Resistance
-47k
-Yellow Dashed trend line
- White solid trend line
- ATH
-100k
-200k
Invalidations
-28k