USDHUF Major double bullish break-out took place yesterdayThe USDHUF pair achieved a huge double bullish break-out yesterday as not only did it break above Resistance 1 (360.650) but also above (and closed) the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 4-month Descending Triangle pattern. At the same time it closed above its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
This is a major buy signal for the long-term, but even if we keep a short-term perspective, we can now target 367.500 (just below Resistance 2) with a lower risk factor than before.
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Hungarianfiorint
EURHUF Short-term buy signal.The EURHUF pair is attempting to form a new short-term bottom just below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and based on the previous two of August and July, is should take another week to do so. Buy once Friday's Low is re-tested and target the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the long-term Triangle at 397.000.
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USDHUF Dip buy opportunity right below.The USDHUF pair has been trading within a Triangle pattern since the March 15 2023 High. It has seen 3 Bearish Legs so far and currently is on the 4th. All corrections reversed to a Buy when the 1D RSI hit or came very close to its Oversold barrier (30.00).
We are anticipating another such opportunity to target 370.000 (just below its 0.9 Fibonacci retracement level, which is where the previous Lower Highs where priced).
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EURHUF 1D MA50 buy entry.The EURHUF pair has been trading within a Triangle pattern, which based on the highly symmtric structure of the 1D RSI, may break above its top (Higher Highs trend-line) and transition into a more aggressive Rising Wedge (diveging Higher Highs).
The last Higher Low was priced below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and since the RSI's Channel Down shows we are on the level where the final Low will be priced, we expect a strong rebound next.
The previous Higher High was priced a little below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we set a 403.000 Target (on the diverging Higher Highs and marginally below the 1.236 Fib).
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USDHUF Sell when the 1D MA200 breaks.The USDHUF pair had a bearish break-out on our last analysis (October 13 2023, see chart below) and after hitting our 345.700 Sell Target, it rebounded:
The rebound formed a Channel Up, which again failed and a new downtrend has been confirmed after the price broke below the 1D MA50 (blue turned-line) again. Once the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) breaks as well, we will have a bearish break-out confirmation, similar to October - November 2023.
Our Target is Support 2 at 342.1565.
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EURHUF Sell the bounce.The EURHUF pair gave us a strong sell signal last time we made a call on it (October 13 2023, see chart below) as it made the bearish break-out below the Triangle and breached through Support 2:
The price is now approaching the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been supporting since January 17. The short-term pattern is a Channel Down, a Bearish Leg similar to October - November 2023.
As a result, we are waiting for a potential bounce and sell on the next 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) contact. Our Target will be the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Triangle at 384.000.
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USDHUF: Buy and sell signals depending on the 1D MA200.USDHUF is bearish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.886, MACD = -2.380, ADX = 36.722) as it has been on the decline since October 4th. This selling sequence has stopped exactly at the bottom of the Channel Up pattern, with the 1D MA200 holding precisely for five straight days. As long as it holds, it is a buy signal and we are targeting the R1 level (TP = 375.00). If it breaks and closes the 1D candle under it, sell and target the S2 level (TP = 335.60).
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EURHUF: Bullish reversal imminent.EURHUF is bearish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 35.270, MACD = -1.570, ADX = 36.402) after being rejected on a Double Top on the R1 level (394.675). The downtrend crossed under both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 and is approaching the S1-S1 Zone, above the HL trendline. This is a major buy zone as the 1D RSI also touched the bottom of its Channel Down. We expect a bullish reversal similar to the one followed the August 30th Low. Target the R1 level again (TP = 394.675).
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USDHUF Bearish leg within a Channel Up.The USDHUF pair is trading within a Channel Up pattern, currently extending the bearish leg after a Higher Low on Resistance 1 (375.600). The previous bearish leg hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and then rebounded, so we are expecting a similar development. As long as the pair is closing the 1D candles above the 1D MA50, we will be bullish, targeting Resistance 2 (381.3500) as part of the next Higher High. If it closes below the 1D MA50, we will take the loss and counter with a sell position, targeting 345.700 (Support 2).
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EURHUF 1D MA50 makes all the difference between a buy and a sellThe EURHUF pair is on a peculiar Ascending Triangle pattern, currently supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) near the Higher Lows. The 1D RSI is on a Higher Lows trend-line of its own and as long as those hold, we are bullish, targeting 394.6500 (Resistance 1). If a 1D candle breaks and closes below the 1D MA50, we will take the small loss and open a sell instead, targeting first Support 1 (382.7500) and eventually 378.35 (Support 2).
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NAFTA vs. the EU; A "generational" Long! (but wait for it!)OK, so the CAD/HUF is not the most liquid of pairs - although quite tradable -, it is the pair which best expresses the upcoming abyss, the EU as a whole staring into.
As for conviction; I owned some real estate all over the EU (not that I cared for them, too much. It was just a good price at the time.) BUT I've completed dumping them all - about 4 months ago. The funds raised by those sales are about to be dumped into this upcoming Long. This is just my personal take on it but I also feel very comfortable with this trade setup, including for the (very) long term.
Here, the idea is, to go long the strongest NAFTA components vs. the weakest EU component.
Everything that could be said about the Loonie and the HU Forint has been already said in previous posts - attached - thus, the only thing left here is to execute at the right time - clearly depicted on the main chart!
The Monthly;
USD/HUF technical analysis: three white soldiers bullish patternUSD/HUF technical analysis
The worst-performing currency today is the Hungarian forint, down by more than 1% on the day against the USD ( USD/HUF ), as Russian gas disruptions fuelled selling pressures on Central Eastern European currencies.
The latest candlesticks analysis provides a strong bullish signal generated by the three white soldiers pattern. This pattern can be identified by the appearance of three green candles in a row, each with a higher open and close than the previous day.
The USD/HUF pair has crossed the 400-mark, returning to 2-week highs after a 7 percent decline from its July 12 high to the end of last week.
The confirmation of the bullish trend and the strong momentum of buyers – the RSI is on the rise – might lead USD/HUF to test the next resistance levels at 406 (July 15 Highs) and then the all-time high of 414 reached on July 12.
CHFHUF: Short opportunity of the parabolic rise.The pair has been trading on a steady Higher Low bullish sequence on the 1D chart (RSI = 64.877, MACD = 4.886, ADX = 60.426) since 2019. Recently however it has entered a strong parabolic rise that is currently consolidating. Typically this is a sign of exhaustion and the MACD has already started to roll downwards. We are aiming on a 0.500 Fibonacci retracement at least with 320.00 as our TP.
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USDHUF: Break-out or Pull back. How to trade.USDHUF is trading on a long term 1M Channel Up (RSI = 59.447, MACD = 6.440, ADX = 46.694, Highs/Lows = 6.8414) since 2019 Q4. Right now it is ahead of a key level the 1D Lower High trend line (dashed). A rejection gets us back to the Higher Low trend line of the 1M Channel Up, while a break out begins a new bullish sequence. Our TP is 311.000 if the break out happens.
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CHFHUF: Mid/ Long-term Bullish Targets.The pair is trading on a strong 1D bearish leg (RSI = 37.148, MACD = -1.594, Highs/Lows = -0.8378) that has rebounded on the pivotal 30.000 RSI level. Based on CHFHUF's past price action on that level, we are expecting a medium term rebound to 305.000. On the long term, assuming the Support from the previous Monthly High holds (as it has done since 2018), we are expecting 309.500.
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EURHUF: Strong long opportunity on the 1W Channel Up.The pair has been trading on a very strong and steady 1W Channel Up since April and has just hit the Higher Low supporting trend line (RSI = 53.917, MACD = 2.461, ADX = 44.042, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). This makes it an automatic buy opportunity for us, especially since the RSI on the 1D time frame nearly hit 30.000 and rebounded. Our Target Zone is 338.000 - 340.000.
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