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USDZAR 14.28480 + 0.17 % LONG IDEA * PRICE ACTION & STRUCTURE HELLO EVERYONE HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING GOOD HAVING A GOOD ONE IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK, HERE'S A LOOK AT THE DOLLAR / ZAR. * follow your entry rules on entries * significant moves with the bears change the plan. lets see how it goes. many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules. HAPPY TRADING EVERYONE & LET YOUR WINS RUN... _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ENTRY & SL - FOLLOW YOUR RULES RISK-MANAGEMENT PERIOD - SWING TRADE __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ If this idea helps with your trading plan kindly leave a like definitely appreciate it.
Long
by PULEMokhothu
1
SPX Volatility Coefficient The ratio of the 20 bar historic volatility (HV20) to the VIX is at 1.08 which suggests market equilibrium at the close last week. When the VIX and the HV20 are in equilibrium, the ratio is around 1.0 . Here's the math: VIX 12.2 / HV20 11.3 = 1.08 Typically the ratio can reach approx 2.0 when the VIX 'fear index' is double that of the HV20. This can serve as a leading indicator or warning signal to traders that the market is anticipating a move to the downside which is larger than has occurred over the past month. When fear of a sell off increases the VIX rises as traders hedge SPX positions using options. A ratio of 2.0 can signal a high in the SPX trading range. The ratio can drop down to 0.5 when the buyers step in and the VIX fear index drops to half that of the lagging HV20 which remains elevated. The VIX deflates faster than the lagging HV20 (while the SPX price recovers and investors BTFD). This occurred in April as buyers stepped in to bid up the SPX after the sell off earlier in the year. The 10 year standard deviation range of the HV20 ranges approximately from 7.4 - 23 with a 10 year average around 15. In comparison the 10 year average range for the VIX is 16.5. At this point the HV20 may continue deflating to drop to below 7 range as buyers bid up the price of the SPX. The ratio could climb once again towards the 2.0 range signally another warning sign to expect higher volatility in the days ahead.
AMEX:SPY
by dime
1
SELL EURUSD: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - 1.09 CLOSE, MA, STANDEV, IV>HVEUR$ Technical analysis - highly bearish: Key level close: 1. On the daily and weekly we closed below the strongest pivot point of recent times below 1.10 - this is very bearish as historically this is the strongest level (lower than post brexit). MA: 1. We trade below the 2wk and 4wk MA - this is a bearish indication + we have been below the 3m MA since brexit. IV/ HV: 1. Realised Vols have also unsurprisingly come off, this would but bullish but brexit has distorted the longer dated HV and they are lagging, plus Implied vols are steepening higher than HV - with 1wk, 2wk and 1m Implied vols trade at 9.55%, 8.87%, 7.96% vs HV 1wk 2wk 1m at 6.7%, 7.09%, 7.24% - so IV is greater than HV across the front end which is bearish. Deviation Channels/ Support levels: 1. We Trade close to the bottom of the 6m deviation channel at 1.0900 but this is due to brexit so shouldnt be considered bullish but we could see resistance here. Looking at the 3m SD channel, this is more appropriate and shows us trading just below the average 3m price - hence there is definitely more room for downside and we have just crossed the middle regression line implying we are entering some downside deviation now, with the -2SD resistance level at 1.085 which is in line with the price support level at 1.083. Risk-Reversals 1. 25 delta Risk reversals trade marginally bearish for EUR$, with current at -0.25, 1wks at -0.15 and 2wks at -0.32 and 1m at -0.72 - this suggest the EUR$ has a slight downside bias but is potentially searching for direction in lack of ECB directive rhetoric coming out on Thursday. I also think EUR$ has taken a bit of a back space in the vol space as investors search for better alpha (JPY/ GBP pairs) given EUR$ low volatility at the moment due to lacking CB bias vs other pairs. - Though 3m risk reversals trade with a clearer downside bias at -1.1 which shows the market expects EUR$ to trade lower in the 3m term, even if this is only a slight bias - likely a result of September ECB easing expectations nonetheless. *Check the attached posts for indepth fundamentals*
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
APPLE: BULLISH VOL CROSS AND SUPPLY SIDE; BUT DEMAND DEFICIENCYVolume Apple Volume traded up for the first time in 4 days on thursday, increasing 25% from 20m to 26m, whilst this may be considered bearish - as increased selling, it is important to not 26m is still 35%-40% below the 4wk and 6month average. Volume cannot fall forever and we have been trading at extremely low volumes all week, so given these facts, a modest rise from 20m-26m is still bullish IMO given that apple traded at 46m last week, so even at 26m now we are still significantly depressed on the supply side - though the demand deficient problem of the recent times remained rife in the stock yesterday, where the stock fails to attract new liquidity, which is all the stock needs to ask the price up given the perfect, low supply environment apple is currently in. Historical and Implied Vols We continue to have a bullish view from a vols perspective as implied traded flat yesterday, up only 10bps at 21.02. Also, a bullish cross pattern emerged between HV and IV, where HV is crossing lower then IV. The shorter period 5/10 HVs are already trading below IV, but yesterday the 20/30 period HV also made a bid to make a move below IV in the coming days. As i have highlighted from the last bull cycle on the graph, when the 4 HVs traded bid and started falling (to eventually trade below IV), Apples price was bullish, rising over 10usd, such interactions between HV and IV is historically highly correlated bullish behaviour. In april as you can see it was Earnings uncertainty that caused the relationship to unnaturally break down - in previous bulls, the HV < IV has allowed bull runs to continue for several months before. Vol correlation with apples price also traded flat remained above the -90% and maintaining my bullish view with the indicator. Evaluation Much of same from apple, where we are witnessing a perfect "bull run" environment (low all round vols, low volume, low price) but the demand side remains the issue - likely due to apples poor mirco-econ environment of poor confidence/ fear regarding their future performance and the ever looming July Earnings, which is artificially keeping demand low for apple. I dont expect any significant upside today from apple, given fridays are normally the worst day for stocks due to the "end of week" sell-off that occurs as some money managers cannot hold open risk on their books over the weekend. IMO i expect apple to close 99.2, higher if we are lucky. If we dont have a bull run soon, we may not see one until august, given that i expect apples price to trade low/ down in the 3 weeks before earnings as investors remember Aprils tragic sell-off and try to avoid a similar event (even if it is unlikely).
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by QuantumLogicTrading