EMC2/BTC Hunt Volatility Funnel (HVF)?(Note: I'm a beginner at technical analysis. Comments welcome.)
Though not perfectly formed, this looks similar to a Hunt Volatility Funnel (HVF). Volatility decreasing over the past few days, now a pinch forming on Bollinger bands. I estimate a breakout through 250 satoshi. 5.78 Risk/Reward Ratio.
Hvf
BBY after earning... will it hold up?BBY still has to hit L3 marker for the HVF to complete. So there is a strong probability for a short setup. In contrast, there might be a possible Long 123 setup forming down the road as well. For a long position, entry might be @ prior resistances level round 35.44, otherwise if price action compromises support then further downside is expected. Note that 32 price level could be another entry point for long entry into a 123 for the 2nd wave. The narrative for BBY is bullish especially now since they finally seen an increase in online sales vol. But without any further research proceed with caution for the bullish narrative to change. Lastly technical analysis and outlook is subject to change, as indicators, patterns continue to develop and become more significant. Hence my analysis may be too early.
Is BBY a good deal?Update from my previous post. Looks like BBY is rallying and will continue to possibly around the $36 PT. Expecting this to hit max PT of $37.50. Searching for conformation of rally continuation such as a test of support, probably around the inner declining dotted line or at the previous high resistance of ~$35. So temporary long until otherwise.
BBY BlockBuster Bust?HVF pattern developing. A macro perspective: short BBY long-term simply because of online retail dominance for tech products. I'm skeptical that brick and mortar retail will survive. BBY prior CEO placed a cost focus strategy that the new CEO has agreed and does not plan on changing. Cost focus strategies does not help with growth unless the company was operating inefficiently in the first place. Otherwise a cost cutting play is basically a survival strategy for concerns of a bad financial outlook/guidance. Cost focus helps companies to report better quarterly Income Statement. BBY still faces the same fundamental challenges as ODP, M, WMT, TGT, HGG, SHLD, and other retailers. Drop in BBY competition will not save them from enduring the same fate. Thus lower competition will not drive earnings or market shares of BBY up, or any other retailers for that matter - as some analyst have claimed. New products on the floor will not help either when information regarding the products can be found online, eliminating the need for a salesforce or marketing. However disadvantaged consumers might find BBY brick and mortar stores useful temporary.
Also form a fundamentally aspect, although BBY is not showing Negative Income (not yet), Annual Cash Flow statements are already showing declines in operation. If this trend continues I expect more smart money exiting. The 10 yr weekly chart already indicates a declining trend from BBY all time high, and as the company scrambles to lean itself to changes in market landscape, remedies like capital injections and liquidity will not save BBY. Until I hear a dramatic change in competitive pricing or some kind of operational advantage similar to AMZN, I don't see BBY outlook getting better. BBY might be a BlockBuster Bust.
HVF Aftermath AGN broke out of the funnel to the downside. Keep on keeping on... I'll be bearish until OBV breaks resistance. Horizontal movement could develop.
Descending DragonHVF pattern seems to be developing. Consolidation has developed in the neck of the funnel (aka Channel). Thus far the Smart money seem to have pulled out already indicated by the OBV, and RSI hit overbought levels. Entry @167 for the short, or you could wait at the breakout of the orange funnel. Intraday BIDU as shown impulsive up spike but still has not broken channel resistances or support. OBV also appears to have bottom out so this could be a good setup for a Long position if price action breaks the channel to the upside and OBV begins to reach upward.
NFLX Breakout Setting up NFLX appears to be setting up for a breakout to the upside and for good reason. Although Q2 is expected to be poor, the remaining quarters of the year is expected to be better. Multiple positive catalyst in development in the long run, and negative churning from small price increase ins subscribers at this point doesn't seem that much of a concern, since NFLX deal with Disney and Comcast. Thus Q2 may not effect smart money players, however spending is expected to be greater as a result of expansion and original content cost. Currency devaluation is another concern on profits but that is a double edge sword considering the fact that expenses could be cheaper. If the company was smart they borrow and pay later at a cheaper rate or lower currency devaluation and hedge profits from currency devaluation.
