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Hyperwave

ETH:USD $35 TargetI believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. That target is based on the likelihood of retesting phase 1 of the hyperwave after entering phase 7. That is supported by the swing target from the current bear channel, as well as the visible range volume profile. Anyone calling for ETH' going to $0 is not thinking very hard about it. Not saying that isn't possible, am saying that is a ridiculous target to use as a trader. There is going to be a ton of support at $35 and even more below that. I think this will happen by late October or early November 2018. That is based on the angle of the previous selloffs which lines up with trend and horizontal support. That is also right in line with my call for $2,860 BTC' by Oct 31 . The next move will be violent after such a long consolidation and if Bitcoin breaks down it's triangle ETH' will fall faster, just like it has this entire bear market. Selling anywhere within the top of the channel should provide tremendous risk:reward. If the green horizontal at ~$187 breaks down then it will be time to enter. I have a stop order set to open a short if that happens. However, as long as USDT:USD continues to resist below the trendline then there is a very decent chance we see another USDT’ selloff alongside a big crypto pump. I will feel much more comfortable about disregarding that situation if a daily candle can close above that trend. Until then I will continue shorting it as well.
KRAKEN:ETHUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
11
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 227)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 Previous analysis / position: Outlined entries at $6,239 and as well as $6,400 - $6,500 / Short BTC' at $6,330.50 | Stop order triggered on ETH while typing this at $192.70 Patterns: Descending triangle | phase 2 hyperwave Horizontal support and resistance: (Bitmex) S: $6,150 is being tested | R: $6,300 held strong BTCUSDSHORTS: Currently testing the upper end of the triangle that I pointed out yesterday . Really starting to think we are going to see record highs. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Did test 12 EMA on some exchanges. On Bitmex it is - 2.96% | 26: -4.42% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50: -6.15% | 128: -7.74% Volume: Mild volume on the weekly, but it did make the first higher high since August FIB’s: 0.886 = $6,169 | 1 = $6,104 | 1.618 = $5,750 Candlestick analysis: Nasty shooting star on the daily candle Ichimoku Cloud: Currently falling out of thick 1h cloud. Will be watching to see if it closes. TD’ Sequential: Watching for weekly red 2 falling below red 1 to be in line with descending triangle breakdown and phase 2 of the hyperwave Visible Range: Has fallen back below point of control and highest volume node BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: -0.75% | 24h: -0.37% | 1w: -6.04% | 2w: -5.99% | 1m: -4.82% Bollinger Bands: Sticking to bottom band, shooting star tells me it is unlikely to return to MA. Weekly resisted MA and should re test bottom band which is below triangle and hyperwave Trendline: Phase 2 hyperwave = $5,950 Daily Trend: Choppy, starting to roll over Fractals: Weekly down = $6,098 | Weeky up = $7,435 On Balance Volume: Weekly broke down support and created a lower low RSI (14 setting): Weekly has broken down from descending triangle and has created a lower low. | D: 35.48 and turning over Stoch: Daily is trending down nicely. Making bullish cross now, expect another lower high Summary: The last two entries outlined were stop orders to short at $6,389 and $6,239. Both have been triggered and are into the profit. My stop loss is currently set at $6,330. The market is starting to show serious signs of life and I am expecting a big move in this next week. During time likes these it is very important to be proactive and decisive when the moment of decision comes. Writing down my plan has helped tremendously with that. When volume and volatility pick up and my heart starts beating faster I can simply take a couple deep breaths and refer to my gameplan. I currently have a nice short open on BTC’ and I am focusing on building on position on ETH:USD. It’s weekly chart looks like it is ready to take another dive and I am looking at a $35 target based on the visible range volume profile and hyperwave theory - return to phase 1 is expected after breaking down phase 2. If I have time I will post a chart with my full gameplan. Here is my plan for BTC': Watch for $6,000 breakdown which will be a weekly red 2 below a red 1 Then expect a small bounce from $5,850 - $5,900 area If bounce resists $6,000 - $6,150 then add to position If bounce breaks through $6,300 then cover If we rally from here then watch for price to re explore wick from today’s shooting star and find resistance below $6,300.
BITMEX:XBTUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
1
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 225)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 Previous analysis / position: “I do expect a small bounce off the first test of the phase 2 hyperwave trendline. A return to $6,400 to test that area for resistance is the most logical result” / Short BTC from $6,330.50 | Short ETH:USD from $197.02 Patterns: Descending triangle | Phase 2 hyperwave Horizontal support and resistance: $6,200 was support and is currently being tested for resistance | S: $6,250 - $6,178 BTCUSDSHORTS: Massive triangle starting to form. If daily candle closes above 39,750 then the target is 60,959. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: -3.24% | 26: -4.46% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50: -6.09% | 128: -7.61% Volume: Last sell off had largest volume on the 1h chart since April 12th and that was the day that set the record for most spot BTC purchased. That indicates to me that some big buyers are getting scared / starting to exit. FIB’s: Testing 100 level. 1.618 = $3,663 when using May 5 high Candlestick analysis: 1 day bullish spinning top Ichimoku Cloud: Kijun-Sen at $6,476 (daily) should act as resistance. 10 minute cloud has actually been very helpful over the past day or so. Was strong support at $6,239 that is thinning and we just got a bearish kumo twist. TD’ Sequential: 4h R2 currently = R1 if that falls below then I think it would be a pretty good entry. Visible Range (1 month lookback): High volume nodes from $6,383 - $6,590 should be strong resistance BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +/- 0 | 24h: +8.04% | 1w: -4.75% | 2w: -5.28% | 1m: -0.82% Bollinger Bands: Last candle failed to return to the band. I expect to see a bulge very soon (as does everyone paying attention) Trendline: Phase 2 hyperwave and bottom of descending triangle = $5,900. A close below that price would almost certainly lead to the bulge. Daily Trend: Chop Fractals: Down: $6,100 | Up: $6,712 (5 in that area) I do not expect up fractal from September 14th to be violated at $6,589 On Balance Volume: Has broken down it’s descending triangle ADX: Finally bouncing after creating 4 year low RSI (14 setting): W: 44 | D: 38.26 | 4h: 34.82 and testing down trend | 1h: 46 after resisting 50 just formed lower low and looking like it will create a second lower high (in line with price) Stoch: %K starting to enter oversold territory on daily and 3d. Weekly still has room to go. 4h making bearish re cross under 25. Summary: When the higher time frame Bollinger Bands get a super squeeze it will often be followed by a shakeout before the real trend starts. That is something I have been very cognizant of over the last couple weeks and I no longer think that this selloff could be a fakeout. The reason being is how much time we have spent below $6,400 support. Shakeouts will usually be violate/fast and the rebound will be even more so. The price will not tend to spend much time below prior support and that will trap in the breakout traders who were waiting with stop orders. I also think that the chances of a bounce to $6,400 are decreasing. In the Wyckoff distribution preliminary support will eventually breakdown and becoming resistance. Therefore I think a selloff to $5,900 and then a bounce back to $6,175 is the most likely outcome. From there I would expect the selling climax to follow. $6,250 - $6,275 is the number to be watching. If not in a position then a stop order at $6,149 should be a good option. That would also be in line with the red 2 trading below the red 1 on the 4 hour chart if it were to occur in the next 2 hours. That being said there is still a very decent chance that we bounce from here and retest $6,400 - $6,500. If that happens then be prepared to enter a short. I believe that would be the most favorable entry in terms of risk:reward. $6,651 should be a safe area to set the stop loss with all of those up fractals lining up. Keep in mind that there is a significant premium on USDT exchanges (currently 1.21%). The prices above are an average of both and would need to be adjusted for your exchange accordingly.
Short
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 224)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 Previous analysis / position: “The market feels' like it is ready to make a significant move more than ever before (in my experience). I remain confident that it will be to the downside.” / Short BTC' from $6,330.50 | Short ETH:USD from $197.02 Patterns: Descending triangle / Ready to test phase 2 of hyperwave Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,210 | S: $6,100 BTCUSDSHORTS: Still plenty of room to go before reaching all time high levels. Looks like it will create new all time time this month due to three higher lows heading into a triple top. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: -4.49% | 26: -5.36% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50: -6.79% | 128: -8.30% Volume: Yesterday’s candle had the most volume that we’ve seen since September 5th and 6th', when the last selloff occurred. FIB’s: Testing 100 level. 1.618 = $3,663 when using May 5 high Candlestick analysis: Today’s candle is forming an inside bar. Price is currently trying to bounce off a 1h dragonfly. Ichimoku Cloud: Full bearish on all time frames from 1h - 1w TD’ Sequential: W: R1 | D: R3 | 12h: R5 | 4h: R7 | 1h: R5 Visible Range: POC’ over last year is now $6,650 and that node has almost 2X the next highest. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +/- 0 | 24h: -5.51% | 1w: -5.91% | 2w: -5.97% | 1m: -1.40% Bollinger Bands: Closed below bottom band. Current candle having trouble getting back above bottom band. Keep in mind that this could still be a shakeout before the real breakout happens to the upside (I think that there is < 15% chance that is the case) Trendline: Yesterdays candle perfectly wicked off phase two hyperwave. Top of descending triangle = $6,450 - $6,525 Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: This last move has violated 5 down fractals! On Balance Volume: Lower highs and lower lows on daily. Just made lower low on weekly. ADX: Still under 10. If it breaks 20 then I would be comfortable assuming that this isn’t a fakeout. RSI (14 setting): D: 34.93 waiting for it to get < 30 before considering it oversold | W: 43 and has broken down from it’s triangle Stoch: Bearish with room to go on daily and weekly. Summary: Key number is $5,900. Close at or below that price would represent a breakdown of the hyperwave line and the descending triangle. If that happens and you are not in a position then it will present a great shorting opportunity. I do expect a small bounce off the first test of the phase 2 hyperwave trendline. A return to $6,400 to test that area for resistance is the most logical result. If that happens it will present another great opportunity to enter or add to a short. The target from a breakdown of the phase 2 hyperwave line would be a return to phase 1 at ~$1,400. The target from the descending triangle is $3,000. Another major area of support is $4,200 - $4,500. I think $3,000 has the greatest chance of being the bottom with the other two options being given about 20% each. I am not throwing out these low numbers to cause fear, uncertainty or doubt. I am simply outlining measured moves from reliable chart patterns and advising that you be prepared for everything.
BITMEX:XBTUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
Hyperwave theory and the chance of Bitcoin returning to $1,000Hey guys, First off, I just want to say thank you. I am the second top trader today and it looks like I could I could become the first. So, thank you all, it's been an amazing journey already and we aren't even two weeks in. I was going to make this an analysis post, but it's really educational for both you and me. I'm not going to pretend it's analysis and make things a certain way just to get views. Let's get to the point, shall we? Tyler Jenks created the Hyperwave theory. I am not an expert on Hyperwave theory, only he is. That said, I like the trend lines it creates and the overall outlook because it is predictive, so if we are paying attention to key levels and bitcoin bounces off of them, we have can apply Hyperwave to figure it all out. Basically, the trend lines are made from the bottoms of these parabolic movements. Once we close above or below these trendlines, we will form a new greater slope going up, or we will retrace to a previous hyperwave going down. I don't really want to talk too much about Hyperwave because I am not and expert and don't understand all of it. I just noticed I had the line on one of my posts and thought I'd explain what it is. Tyler Jenks has a YouTube channel and you should check it out to hear his case for returning to $1000/bitcoin. I do not know if he is right, but he is one of the bears WE DO listen to. We as good, professional traders must be prepared for everything and we listen to those who know what they are talking about even if they disagree with us. Go check him out, it might teach you crucial information for the future. If I've been helpful, please like my work and follow me, it helps us both. -YoungShkreli
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by CantorTechnologies
22
Intermediate Trading Strategy - Part 4In the previous posts we discussed profit taking in different markets, profit targets, trailing stop losses, risk:reward, time horizons and how to identify a trend. Starting with part 1 is highly recommended. Best Indicators I have noticed that some indicators work really well when the asset is at or near all time highs and other indicators work best when the market is recovering or in a bearish trend. If ATH', or ATH' territory Tyler Jenks’ Hyperwaves: Help to identify areas of support in parabolic markets. Also indicates when the parabolic move is exhausted (phase 4 or phase 3 breakdown). Hyperbolic burst: Use 30 period RSI. If >/= 70 then parabolic status. Prefer week and daily to be > 70 with W > D. If both weekly and daily are > 70 then in a Parabolic High Risk (PHR) state. If Weekly and Daily > 80 then Extreme Parabolic High Risk (ePHR). Fractals/Parabolic SAR’s: Very useful for setting trailing stops and identifying a reversal in trend. Up fractals should not get broken in a down trend and down fractals should remain in tact while trending up. Ichimoku Cloud: Tenken-Sen serves as a high probability entry. Kumo twists can help identify the end of a trend. The cloud can act as support. I find it to be most useful as a way to identify no trade zones. This occurs when the price is inside the daily cloud. MA’s: Like 10MA - 50MA - 128 MA on the daily chart and the 7/30/50 on the weekly. If the 10 MA crosses the 50 then it is a good indication of upcoming consolidation and/or reversal. For Bitcoin' NVT: Most objective measurement we have to value the Bitcoin' blockchain. However, with the introduction of the Lightning Network and batching transactions I do not know if this will continue to work. For example: The blockchain could be getting used more but NVT could be showing the network as overvalued because there are less total transactions. If Bear Market or Recovery Horizontal support/resistance and/or FIB’s: Prior resistance turns into support. FIB’s can help identify major levels of support/resistance. Look for gaps that need to be filled. VRPR: Large volume profile on top = large resistance | Large volume profile below = large support | If gap in volume below price then high probability that the asset will retest that zone, a/k/a ‘fill the gap’. Patterns: Patterns can be very useful in identifying high probability entries and estimating profit targets. Candlesticks: Capitulation and Euphoria wicks are a very strong indication of a reversal. I like to look for reversal candlesticks to be in confluence with an area of support, such as a horizontal, trend or Ichimoku Cloud. Trendline: Can be very useful in identifying bottoms and catching trend reversals. If trend is violated and holds as resistance/support on a retest then it is a likely reversal. When the price is in a freefall using trendlines and/or hyperwaves can be useful in identifying key areas of support. Do not look for a reason to enter a trade, look for reasons to stay out! Anyone can find a reason to enter a trade, and anyone can come up with an eloquent explanation to make the trade sound profitable. When you are actively looking for reasons to take the other side of your position and are coming up empty then it is probably time to bet big and use a generous stop loss! Thanks for reading!
Education
by Sawcruhteez
4
Trading Strategy for Parabolic Markets [Part 2]In Part 1 I outlined an approach that I have been working on that's aimed towards trading parabolic markets. Now we look at some trades! Amazon Daily Notes: Hyperwave Phase 4 if it supports throwback to prior ATH’ | 10 MA > 50 MA > 200 MA | Daily ADX recently crossed 25 | Weekly ADX = 37 and is currently crossing +DI | Daily RSI = 61.46 & Weekly RSI = 74.78 | Cluster of support at $1,720 from: prior horizontal resistance, 50 day MA, phase 4 hyperwave, the weekly and daily TDST levels, weekly Tenkan-Sen and the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Q-2 Earnings Report: Expected earnings per share: $2.49 vs $5.07 actual earnings per share for a +103% surprise. Time Analysis: Horizontal meets trend on 8/6/18 Possible Entries: Blind order at $1,720 | Buying consolidation at horizontal + trend + 50 MA + cloud support | Waiting for green 2 to trade above green 1 on the daily Microsoft Weekly Notes: If it supports throwback to prior ATH’ then phase 3 is confirmed | 10 MA > 50 MA > 200 MA | ADX > 25 | Weekly RSI = 71.14 | Daily RSI = 59 | Cluster of support at $102 from: prior horizontal resistance, 50 day MA, phase 4 hyperwave, daily and weekly TDST levels, weekly Tenkan-Sen and the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Q-2 Earnings Report: Expected earnings per share: $1.07 vs $1.13 actual for a +5.61% surprise. Time Analysis: Trend meets horizontal support on 8/10 Possible Entries: Blind order at $103 | Buying consolidation at horizontal + trend + 50 MA + cloud support | Waiting for green 2 to trade above green 1 on the daily. Risk: 5.31% Potential Return: +92.5% Risk:Reward = 18.5:1 Alphabet Notes: Tyler Jenks said that he is waiting for new ATH, throwback and new ATH to confirm phase 4 of the hyperwave (pink dotted) | 10 MA > 50 MA > 200 MA | Support cluster at $1,196 from: prior horizontal resistance, phase 4 of the hyperwave, daily and weekly TDST level, weekly Tenkan-Sen & Kijun-Sen and daily cloud. Q-2 Earnings Report: Expected earnings per share: $9.45 vs $11.75 actual earnings per share for a +24.34% surprise. Better than expected earnings despite $5B fine. $32.66B in Q-2 revenue vs $26.01B during Q-2 of 2017. Expected: $6.7B income on $25.6B in revenue. $8.27B in revenue and $4.54 earnings per share. Time Analysis: Horizontal support meets hyperwave on 9/17 | Green 3 > Green 2 on the weekly indicates 6 weeks left to the upside. Possible Entries: Blind order at $1,198. Buy consolidation with reversal candles at support cluster. Wait for green 2 to trade above a green 1 on the daily. Risk: 10.5% Potential for return: +92.5% Risk:Reward = 8.8:1 The Boeing Company Notes: Hyperwave phase 4 | 10 MA > 50 MA > 200 MA | ADX < 20 while price consolidates inside triangle | Currently getting support from daily cloud and 50 day MA | Weekly RSI = 64 | Daily RSI = 55.61 Q-2 Earnings Call: Expected earnings per share: $3.45 vs $3.33 actual earnings per share for a -3.48% surprise. $4.7B of operating cash and repurchased $3.0B of Boeing stock. Paid $1B in dividends, reflecting a 20% increase from last year. Q-2 Revenue = $24.3B with a higher volume of commercial deliveries and a favorable mix of services and defense contracts. Time Analysis: Triangle will be 66% completed on 10/30 and that is the most likely time for a breakout to occur. Possible Entries: Breakout of $380 that is supported by volume | Throwback to $380 on decreasing volume | Green 2 > Green 1 after breaking out from $380 Risk: 9.16% Potential Reward: If triangle is a bull flag and 9/5/16 to 2/12/18 is the pole then the target = $617 or +64.53% Risk:reward = 9.16%:64.53% Saved the best for last and ran out of room. Will have to make this a three part post.
NYSE:BALong
by Sawcruhteez
Trading Strategy for Parabolic Markets [Part 1]I recently watched this podcast with Tone Vays. Tyler Jenks was the guest and he started out by saying: "This is the greatest opportunity I have seen in financial markets." It just so happens that I have been studying parabolic theory as it relates to hyperwaves. I am using that information to develop a trading strategy that is aimed towards capitalizing on parabolic moves. I will be using Tyler Jenks' hyperwave and consensio theories, Welles Wilder’s RSI, ADX and Parabolic SAR indicators, as well as Parabolic theory from Spyfrat’s Call. The TD' Sequential and Ichimoku Clouds will also be used to a much smaller degree. Below I have outlined the indicators/theories that are being used, my approach to entries, four options for a trailing stop loss in a parabolic market and a rudimentary price target calculation. If you are not interested in the minutia of my approach then feel free to skip straight to part 2 where positions will be outline. I have identified 5 stocks that are currently in a parabolic state and one that is primed to start one. Entries, stop losses and risk:reward calculations are provided for each. Three strategies for implementing trailing stop losses have also been included. Consensio Used to identify bull and bear markets. If price is above the MA’s and the shorter term MA’s are all above the longer term MA’s then it is a bull market. If the price is below the MA’s and the shorter term MA’s are below the longer term then we are in a bear market. Hyperwave Parabolic Burst Continuation 30-prd RSI is used rather than the more commonly used 14-prd RSI If 30-prd RSI reaches 70 level, stock is in parabolic status The best setup is when both Weekly RSI and Daily RSI reach 70 with the weekly RSI > Daily. If both weekly and daily RSI are in parabolicy state but the daily RSI overtakes the weekly RSI the asset is said to be in a ‘Parabolic High Risk’ (PSR') state. Indicates that asset is at a high risk of a major correction (paraburst) If both weekly and daily RSI > 80 (regardless if w > d), the asset is said to be in ‘Extreme Parabolic High Risk’ (ePHR) state. Source ADX and DI ADX measures the strength of the trend. If < 20 then no trend exists. If > 25 then strength of trend is building. Horizontal lines can be drawn on the ADX to indicate when the move is becoming exhausted. Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI), together these measure trend direction. If +DI > -DI then trend is bullish. If +DI < -DI then trend is bearish. Crossover in the -DI and +DI can indicate a change in the market trend. Entries I will always line out a minimum of three entries. That is because I believe in entering into positions in thirds or fourths, only adding when the price moves in my favor. This allows me to minimize risk and emotional decision making. Trailing Stop Losses Bill Williams Fractals - Set slightly under most recent down fractal (if long). Parabolic SAR - Set slightly under most recent weekly SAR' or slightly under the previous 2 daily SARs. ADX - If > 50 on weekly and/or > 60 on daily RSI - If weekly and daily are > 80 Price Targets This is still a work in progress. I have noticed that each phase tends to go +90% - +95% from prior phases high. That can be used to give us a rough idea in order to calculate the risk:reward, however there is a lot more backtesting that still needs to be done. If you have significant data about the % ROI' each phase will return on average then I would be very interested in collaborating! Now that you understand the approach be sure to check out part 2 where 5 possible possible positions are outline
NYSE:BAEducation
by Sawcruhteez
1
Is th NASDAQ, S&P and Economy to experience a HUGE reset soon? This is the NASDAQ graph ranging back from the late 1980's. We are due for a HUGE market correction. Prepare for one of the worst financial and economic crashes the U.S. has ever experienced with the next year or 2. We will see a lot of market upside for the next few months - year. Once this over extended market completes its cycle, phase 5 should take place and as fast and extreme as it went up. Remember that when President Obama was first elected in 2008, the U.S. debt was approx. $8 Trillion. We are currently at about $21.3 Trillion in debt today.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by KennySniper
5