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Bitcoin to 1 million by June? What is needed? Have you heard about former Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan's ludicrous bet that Bitcoin will reach 1 million by June due to the banking crisis? That's almost as crazy as late John McAfee's (RIP) bet back in the days. But let's get to the real question, how much "money" would it take for Bitcoin to reach such a valuation? Hmm...a pop quiz seems fun! How much money inflow is needed for Bitcoin to reach a 1 million USD valuation? a) 5 trillion USD b) 10 trillion USD c) 20 trillion USD d) nothing, hyperinflation will do the trick e) it's not possible, Bitcoin won't reach a million Put your answer in the comments right now, then come back and read on ... The answer might surprise you. Okay, ready? Let's dig in... Many folks might think that for Bitcoin to reach a 1M USD valuation, it's as simple as checking the current market cap and subtracting that from the total number of Bitcoins issued multiplied by 1 million. That would mean roughly 19,325,000 x 1,000,000 - 550,000,000,000 = 18,775,000,000 or 18.75T USD. But hold your horses! There are a couple of things to keep in mind. Approximately 80% of all issued bitcoins are being HODLed right now, meaning they are illiquid, the most significant number ever. This means that only 20% of 19,325,000 BTC or approximately 3,865,000 BTC is liquid and available for purchase. The actual number of BTC available on exchanges is even lower. Then there's the multiplier effect, averaging around 2.6 in the last 5 years. This effect means that for every $1 invested in Bitcoin, the market cap increased on average by $2.6, a fascinating side-effect of the supply and demand mechanism. Now let's calculate buying those liquid Bitcoins, keeping in mind the multiplier effect using the following formula. Inflow needed = liquid supply x 1,000,000 / 2.6 Calculated ► 3,865,000 x 1,000,000 / 2.6 = 1,486,538,461,538 USD or roughly 1.5 T. Quite a difference compared to 18.75T, right? This calculation, of course, is purely hypothetical and assumes that the current level of demand and supply remains constant. The actual price of bitcoin may vary due to a number of factors, such as changes in demand, supply, and market sentiment. Factors that could have a big impact: Large market orders would increase the multiplication factor as it pumps up the price much faster Certainly, some sell orders would be triggered at certain prices along the way, which increases the number of liquid BTC and thus the amount needed to pump to 1M The calculation did not keep in mind the BTC that will be mined till June, so we need to add some additional BTC in our calculations. Maybe most importantly, sell orders have the same multiplier effect, not to mention the panic selling that could occur if a large amount of BTC was sold at once. Nevertheless, the calculation above proves that less money is needed than previously thought for BTC to reach a 1M valuation. While I don't believe that we'll see that happening by June and this bet is outrageously bold, it does show that there is a possibility that if the banking issues continue and people see Bitcoin as a safe haven, we could reach a 1M Bitcoin faster than expected, with less inflow than expected. The point is that the faster this would happen, the less inflow would be needed. So there you have it! While Balaji Srinivasan's bet may seem outrageous and implausible, it's not as far-fetched as it might appear initially. With the right set of environmental circumstances, such as continued banking crises and increased adoption of Bitcoin as a safe haven asset, reaching a 1M valuation may be closer than we think. And now you know the (theoretical) calculation for how much money it would take to get there! What do you think? Does his bet make sense? If not, what is your prediction? Leave your thoughts in the comments and if you liked what you read here, pressing the little rocket (it really helps!) would be appreciated! Oh, and while you're here, why don't you check the idea below as well, an actual analysis of what I personally expect to happen till the next halving. (And no, it's not as crazy as this bet). Enjoy!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Nico.Muselle
47
BTC - The Upcoming Move that Will Surprise Most Everyone?!? I’m just gonna leave this here. What you’re looking at is a bar pattern copy of a previous move bitcoin has made overlaid onto the current chart - One that just so happens to align nearly perfectly with the Fibonacci levels, from the last daily swing low, to the hypothetically soon-coming swing hight, which would put the upcoming 0.382 at around $23,421, the golden pocket $27,000-$27,500 range, the 0.786 at around $29,585 and the 1.0 at $32,850, peaking there, sometime around August 15th to August 18th. Let me know what y’all think. ***I’m not a Financial advisor nothing I said is financial advice and you shouldn’t buy or sell anything just because I discussed it in this post. You, and you alone are responsible for your financial decisions and risk management.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Epps_Enterprises_Inc
1
Abdjo indicatorHi the idea that I have thought too much about it, how to read the chart in a simple way. then I have a way to make hypothetical indicators that could help you to study the movement of the chart and the market. the chart is very simple, depending on the market cap and volume. when we add the value of market cap or volume, the chart moves according to this value. it will give us the shape of the market movement. we can make the market cap rise up and down and the chart will move according to this value. same thing for volume. so when we set, for example, 1.3850 Trillion Dollars as market cap till 2.550 Trillion Dollars as a maximum top. and let the market cap up step by step, and the chart is built according to market cap value, then we will have a hypothetical chart tells us the shape of the market if the market works according to this scenario. just when press on the button (play) it start counting and build the candles. then we can add another value and change every time to have different charts and scenarios. I hope the idea is clear to you. regards
CRYPTOCAP:BTC
by abdjo
Possible Head and shoulders *LONG* Keep an I on the possibility of this being an outcome for Chainlink. Even though it has been on a pure uptrend testing it's highs and lows and pushing forward. There is always another side to every success story. No matter what I believe, Chainlink will push through eventually. Keep an eye on resistance levels through the week. $27 specifically, if we find it causing resistance it is possible we can end back up we we are currently sitting at $22 - $22. 40 . Which in turn if this forms the infamous H&S , this may in turn push us further down to the $19- $17 range. Just hypothetical but possible. Good luck and Happy Tuesday!!
LLong
by Brother-Doug
ALGO with symmetrical triangle breakoutALGO with a symmetrical triangle breakout. I decided to mix it up and include some Elliot wave theory. It looks like the first impulse is over but the second impulse is just beginning. Mind you if it had the same market cap as ADA it'd be at $10.80 (at the time of this post) Looks like we could be heading to the high 3's and maybe even break into the low 4's with Algorand. *HYPOTHETICAL* Just want to see how it turns out when you combine wave theory with traditional TA, like h&s or triangles. No bs, I am the most bullish out of every crypto out there. even bitcoin
COINBASE:ALGOUSDLong
by EBITDAtiger
Bitcoin (BTC) Projection for the Next 4 MonthsIn this chart, I first projected an estimate for Bitcoin's 21-week and 21-day EMAs based on historic patterns. Next, I hypothesis that bitcoin squeezes between these 21 week and 21 day moving averages in early March due to the current momentum of the bull trend. Like always, we should consider all possibilities, so I plotted a hypothetical price (yellow dashed line fading in confidence) for a move to the upside, downside and sideways. The red rectangle box is what I believe will become the next resistance. Below that, you will see two green rectangle boxes, those are buy zones for me. I will buy 1x in the first green zone (~$27K) and then buy 2x in the second green zone (~$24.5K). If it drops even lower, I will buy 3x at ~$20.5K, and 5x if it re-tests $18K, but I think this is area is highly unlikely. I don't think you will ever see a 1 BTC under $20K ever again. Regardless, BTC is coiled for a major move in the coming days to weeks. Remember the momentum of this bull market and watch the U.S. and global economy.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by austunutsua