$BTCUSD Fake break or support 200MAFake break OR support depending on your view on the 200 day moving average.
Top of channel target - $70 000
I have a NASDAQ:IBIT position (iShares Bitcoin Trust)
IBIT
$BTC call to the DAY!!! Called Capitulation few days ago!Not one to brag but....... TO THE DAY!!!!!!!
How long, how many months, have we been posting this chart with phase 1 and phase 2 of #BTC???
Well, first let's see where CRYPTOCAP:BTC closes today. But so far it is looking good at a close on the EXACT day of phase 2.
FYI
#bitcoin volume is pretty good and still a lot of time left untill the end of the day.
#crypto
Quick Analysis on Early signs of $BTC CapitulationJust a hunch on $BTC.
We bought ETF's on this last dip. IBKR only allows 10% crypto.
May begin buying spot again as we sold close to top.
First an explanation on a 4Hr #BTC chart broken down into 3 phases
(Letters A - C)
A
The descending arrow shows $ Flow weakening. There were huge buys but sells were eating it up. That was a RED FLAG. We spoke about divergence and lessening buy volume for DAYS! Few warnings.
It was eventually followed by #bitcoin selling pressure.
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B
$ Flow indicator is a laggard, we keep eyes on an investment's volume on our own, visual. In this case we're looking at the #Bitcoin volume.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC had some buying but sells kept coming in.
These were likely sellouts from leverage & shorts.
Wont comment on Germany as spot #BTC is still irrelevant.
($ Flow was fine for spot and nowhere near as bad as futures, but CRYPTOCAP:BTC kept going down. Not sure what needs to be shown for people to realize that spot is IRRELEVANT until some time in the future.)
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C
2nd CRYPTOCAP:BTC phase is almost done.
Buys coming in and the sells are not as strong anymore.
It needs a lil more time but #BTC MAY/COULD be capitulating.
It holds 52kish weekly & monthly and we could see something nice. See the chart on #GOLD for the Cup and Handle breakout.
Have a great weekend!!!
(pls see profile for more info)
BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Could Be Finishing A CorrectionBlackRock Bitcoin ETF with ticker – IBIT looks like a nice and clean A-B-C correction that is right now sitting at interesting support area for A=C, but to confirm support in place and bulls back in the game, we need to see sharp or impulsive recovery back above 36.43 level.
Bitcoin has reached the Top by mid-March. What is Next!?The United States spot Bitcoin BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recently achieved a new milestone after attracting more than $1 billion in net inflows for the first time on March 12.
Investments into spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to soar as daily inflows breached $11.1 billion over the last 13 days. On March 12, Bitcoin ETFs saw their biggest-ever daily inflow of $1.045 billion, chiefly contributed to by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT).
Too many excited ppl, isn't it?!
Technical graph indicates on 2-years long upside channel, where near 73K per BTC is the Top, and near 55K is the middle.
Technically, BTC can retrace to mentioned above level.
BTC Futures. Bulls fade. Robust gain de-established.BTC has reached the top around US$ 73700 on March 14, 2024 as it was clearly explained in previous publication.
Since that it's gone around 1 month till now, and no one new high was printed in BTC.
Bulls fade. Robust gain de-established. Upside bubble-alike trend transformed into detrend structure with flat top near US$ 73000 per BTC.
RSI (14) is sluggish also.
This idea is for b-adj CME’s Bitcoin futures contracts, ticker symbol BTC, which are a USD cash-settled contracts based on the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR), which serves as a once-a-day reference rate of the U.S. dollar price of bitcoin.
The BRR aggregates the trade flow of major bitcoin spot exchanges during a one-hour calculation window into the U.S. dollar price of one bitcoin as of 4 p.m. London Time.
The Bitcoin futures contract trades Sunday through Friday, from 5 p.m. to 4 p.m. Central Time (CT).
A single BTC contract has a value of five times the value of the BRR Index and is quoted in U.S. dollars per one bitcoin. The tick increments are quoted in multiples of $5 per bitcoin, meaning a one-tick move of the BTC future is equal to $25.
BTC futures expire the last Friday of the month, and are listed on the nearest six consecutive monthly contracts, inclusive of the nearest two December contracts.
Technical graph indicates on a detrend structure, where near 73K per BTC is the Top, and near 55K is the target.
Technically, BTC can retrace to mentioned above level as it still below reasonable resistance.
$BTC range bound, 6 month period almost overGood Morning!!!
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is still in a range.
It is currently higher from repurchase but not it is not going up in strength, trading this portion unless we see a change.
What is needed to turn fully bullish on #BTC?
RSI over 50, which is the orange arrow.
$ flow positive trend, which is the grey arrow.
#Bitcoin has 2 more weeks before the 6 month, 2nd phase, is up.
Spot BTC bleh too.
IBIT - IdeaHey Guys,
Just wanted to show a chart / Idea for possible bounce areas.
I would like to see a break of the trendline to think about going long.
Thanks for reading…
Posted this months ago, likeliest $BTC scenarioWe have been showing this for some time now, couple months or so.
This scenario is looking more and more likely as the days pass on.
$BTC calls have been $ for months now, here's anotherIn less than one month it will be 6 months when CRYPTOCAP:BTC topped.
Historically, this has been an important time frame for the asset.
#Bitcoin is getting to the major support level faster than anticipated, yellow line.
The time between big cyan colored arrows is IMPORTANT.
#BTC close to oversold & TONS of $ has been taken out.
Getting closer to a bottom.
$BTC retested and caught a cold, likely will sell off moreCRYPTOCAP:BTC retested the all time high & then sold off, as expected.
The 2nd phase is the more important one and it is right around the corner. In a previous post we mentioned 3 and 6 months from ATH was a pivot point.
#BTC will likely keep selling off until it reaches major support & that area is a is do or die time, represented by cyan arrows.
#Bitcoin Money flow is not very good & the RSI is still sinking.
BTC looks okay, 1st phase pretty much complete, phase 2 nextTurned bullish on CRYPTOCAP:BTC during the beginning of May.
Futures #BTC looks good but the volume is lacking a bit.
RSI looks okay but not great.
$ Flow is not that great either.
Spot #Bitcoin = ditto.
However, technically they look good, they are trading above their respective moving averages.
What would seal the deal? HUGE volume breaking highs!
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Not shown here, pls see profile for more info.
Noticed an interesting weekly CRYPTOCAP:BTC pattern. Will speak on that later as the pattern will likely resolve months from now. Want to see what happens within the next couple months first.
Spot #BTC hasn't proven it's better to chart vs futures #Bitcoin, doubt it will until it counts (meaning it'll change when things hit the fan).
Current box is the best looking. We'll see what happens very soon.
#crypto
$BTC Futures STILL better to chart vs SpotTweaked the CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart. It really needed updating. Fixed the colors too!
#BTC is 2 weeks away from the end of what we called, phase 1.
In my opinion, it's going to move SOON.
#Bitcoin breakdown:
The moving avg crossover, yellow circle, is bullish.
Cyan circles show bullish signs;
RSI above 50
Money Flow is above 0
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Bonus post
CRYPTOCAP:BTC derivatives vs spot - FINAL proof!
(They are trading a lil closer than ever)
Both #BTC RSI look identical but Futures turned bullish 1st.
However, #Bitcoin $ Flow is a VERY different.
Futures have been mostly NEGATIVE until yesterday!
Spot has been mostly above 0 until recently!
$BTC better lately but not ready, ALMOST!CRYPTOCAP:BTC has been looking better as of late.
The 1st phase we spoke about is almost done!
#BTC shows a successful GREEN Moving Avg test, two weeks ago.
Final #Bitcoin chart shows the reduced $ flow & the RSI not as strong as it was last time it was at these levels = Bull is not dead but it is not as strong as before.
In no way does this mean that 100-110k out the question.
#crypto
1 BITCOIN buys 34 ounces of GOLD. Looking to smash the high.Bullish yes...
BUT!!!
With a warning.
If I am looking at this ratio
you can bet your Ass the Bankers are also watching this ratio.
The Mayer multiple is a friendly tool
giving us a potential sell target.
Expected price once the $BTC resistance area is brokenThis is part of the previous post....
CRYPTOCAP:BTC roadmap, IMO.
#BTC has issues in the 65k area, this is more than OBVIOUS.
When this breaks, it'll likely be FEROCIOUS! Furious move...
#Bitcoin will likely hit our low 100k target, and fast.
$BTC map for the next few monthsCRYPTOCAP:BTC is in an obvious downtrend.
THE QUESTION is, "when will it reverse course"?
#BTC will most likely change course before the end of one of the phase that we posted.
#Bitcoin Phase 1 is a total of 3 months. Phase 2 is a total of 6 months.
Purple vertical lines.
We already hit oversold a few days ago.
IF we retest the lower range we want an RSI higher than where it is now.
Spot & Futures are forming an Inverse Head & Shoulder patternSpot CRYPTOCAP:BTC shows a beautiful, forming an almost perfect, inverse head & shoulder pattern.
This pattern is best for determining bottoms but it can also work at other time periods, but not with the same validity.
However, IMO don't think #BTC will form it completely.
Why?
IMO unless something crazy happens don't see #bitcoin going sub $40k or even $50k.
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Futures CRYPTOCAP:BTC is also forming the Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern.
Spot & Futures are holding the GREEN moving avg line.
#Bitcoin is still within the 3-6 month consolidation phase but it is getting close to resolving it.
Small dotted lines are SMALL trends inside the #BTC LARGE trend.
$BTC breaking downToday we see CRYPTOCAP:BTC breaking a major support level. Unless there is a turnaround this means that 52kish is likely next.
Weekly #BTC at the green moving avg. Historically, this has not been the best gauge, but it has been "okay".
The last 2 charts show the trajectories we expect(ed) for #bitcoin to follow through.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Surge – A Bullish Signal for Market Adoption?Welcome to a pivotal moment in the Bitcoin market! As we witness the launch of several spot Bitcoin ETFs, including giants like Fidelity's FBTC, Bitwise's BITB, and Franklin Templeton's EZBC, the landscape of cryptocurrency investing is evolving before our eyes.
First-day volumes paint a promising picture, with funds that 'Buy Bitcoin' directly, such as FBTC (Fidelity), BITB (Bitwise), and EZBC (Franklin Templeton), accounting for a significant 14.06% of the total volume. This direct investment approach is injecting fresh capital into the spot Bitcoin market, hinting at a bullish outlook for Bitcoin adoption and price movement.
Let's not overlook the powerhouses that follow Bitcoin's price through derivatives, such as the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) and Grayscale's GBTC, which command an impressive 85.94% of the total volume. While they may not directly purchase Bitcoin, their market presence can't be ignored, as they reflect growing investor interest and add to the overall Bitcoin market depth.
With the potential move to a T+1 settlement cycle, the market could see increased efficiency and a more immediate impact from ETF inflows. This could be particularly beneficial for ETFs purchasing Bitcoin, as it allows for quicker capital deployment, enhancing the responsiveness of the market to new investments.
But let's temper our optimism with a dose of reality. It's crucial to remember that not all ETFs are created equal – some provide direct exposure to Bitcoin's price movements, while others offer a more nuanced approach through futures and other financial instruments. The true impact of these funds will unfold with time, as we closely monitor their influence on market demand and price dynamics.
In essence, the influx of new Bitcoin ETFs could be a harbinger of increased adoption and integration of Bitcoin into the mainstream financial world. This is a bullish sign for those of us optimistic about the future of digital assets.
Stay tuned for more updates as we navigate this exciting phase of market growth. And remember, despite the complexities, the introduction of these ETFs is a step toward broader acceptance and a testament to Bitcoin's enduring allure.
So..still very Bullish news... still very Good news!
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Ibit bullish supply zoneI think here ibit its very bullish from here but also its too much risky anyway this with Hong Kong etf maybe can force the market price to go up
$BTC & $ETH trading well, so far.#Crypto has also done well since the call for a rally.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC futures (as usual, pretty consistent, no?) show the better data.
#bitcoin held the Moving Avg & support underneath.
Spot traded beneath Mov Avg, showing a false breakdown.
CRYPTOCAP:ETH bounced, like it's bigger brother.
It looks stronger on Futures vs Spot.
#BTC Shorts covered.
#ETH had the largest short position in long time.
(see profile for more info)
$BTC Derivatives still dictating price, NOT Spot BitcoinCRYPTOCAP:BTC & CRYPTOCAP:ETH look almost identical the last few days, that is pretty interesting.
However...
Stretch the chart out a bit and it is a very different story. #BTC outperformed #ETH by a decent amount.
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Both CRYPTOCAP:BTC showed upcoming weakness. However, Futures #BTC Money Flow went below 0 & stayed there. Spot recovered fast but #bitcoin went lower in April!
Now, we see Futures Money Flow gaining momentum again. Spot has been hanging around here for a bit.
Looks like derivatives are STILL dictating #bitcoin price action.
