IBM - The Forgotten StockHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of International Business Machines.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
All the way back in 2012 IBM created a major top formation by breaking below strong support at $180 and we saw a significant decline in stock price from there. After we then saw a reversal and a breakout in 2022, IBM is certainly back to a bullish market. I am now waiting for a retest of the breakout level mentioned in the analysis to then look for long continuation setups.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Ibmanalysis
IBM: Navigating the Cloud and AI Era for Smart InvestmentsIBM: Navigating the Cloud and AI Era for Smart Investments
When Arvind Krishna assumed the role of CEO at IBM in 2020, he embarked on a transformation journey for the iconic tech giant, steering its focus towards cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI). As this transformation reached its fruition, the rejuvenated IBM experienced a notable surge in its share price on September 20, following an "outperform" rating bestowed upon it by Matthew Swanson, an analyst at investment bank RBC Capital.
A Strategic Pivot for the Future
Considering the company's strategic pivot towards the thriving domains of cloud computing and AI, alongside the recent endorsement with an "outperform" rating, the question arises: Is investing in Big Blue a logical choice? Several compelling factors support the notion of acquiring IBM shares. However, it's worth noting that IBM's stock price has experienced an upward trajectory in recent months, currently hovering close to its 52-week high.
Warren Buffett's Wisdom
As the venerable Wall Street figure Warren Buffett has articulated, "For the investor, a too-high purchase price for the stock of an excellent company can undo the effects of a subsequent decade of favorable business developments." With this sage advice in mind, let's delve deeper into the company to assess whether IBM constitutes a prudent and promising long-term investment.
Dominating Cloud and AI
IBM stands out as an enticing investment option primarily due to its unwavering focus on two dynamic domains: cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI). The company has honed its specialization in the hybrid cloud market, catering to clients seeking a blend of dedicated IT infrastructure for heightened privacy and shared infrastructure for cost efficiencies.
Within the cloud computing landscape, IBM ranks among the top six companies in terms of market share, positioning itself advantageously to harness the robust growth of the hybrid cloud sector. In 2021, this market was valued at $85 billion, and experts predict it will surge to an impressive $262 billion by 2027.
IBM's extensive experience spanning decades has propelled it to the forefront of the AI arena. Notably, IBM made history in 1997 when its AI technology defeated the reigning world chess champion. The company's latest AI offering, Watsonx, which was launched in July, has rapidly found favor with over 150 businesses, including prestigious institutions like NASA. Watsonx even played a pivotal role at Wimbledon by generating tennis commentary.
Quantum Leap in Technology
Moreover, IBM is actively involved in the development of quantum computers, which hold the key to unlocking more powerful iterations of AI. Quantum computers possess the ability to process vast volumes of data at unprecedented speeds, and IBM holds a prominent position as a leader in the burgeoning field of quantum computing.
Revenue Growth and Resilience
IBM's strategic technologies have propelled the company's revenue growth over the past three years, showcasing its resilience and adaptability. In the second quarter, which concluded at the end of June, the Red Hat division, the core of its cloud computing business, experienced an impressive 11% revenue surge. Simultaneously, the data and AI segment recorded a commendable 10% increase. Both segments fall under IBM's software business unit, which contributed significantly with $6.6 billion in Q2 revenue.
Strong Free Cash Flow and Dividend Track Record
IBM's prowess in technology adoption among its clientele also fuels revenue expansion in its consulting division, which aids clients in integrating the company's technical solutions. This segment achieved a 4% increase in Q2 sales, reaching $5 billion. Collectively, IBM's software and consulting divisions accounted for a substantial 75% of the Q2 revenue totaling $15.5 billion.
Furthermore, IBM boasts the capacity to generate dependable free cash flow (FCF), a crucial metric representing cash available for business investments, debt servicing, and dividend disbursements. By the close of Q2, the company had accumulated $2.1 billion in FCF and anticipates reaching $10.5 billion for the year, marking a substantial increase from the previous year.
IBM's robust FCF empowers it to maintain an attractive dividend yield, currently exceeding 4%. Impressively, IBM has consistently paid dividends since 1916, boasting 28 consecutive years of dividend increases.
Assessing the Share Price
Notably, while IBM has seen growth in its software and consulting divisions, its Q2 revenue of $15.5 billion experienced a marginal 0.4% decline compared to the preceding year's quarter. This dip was primarily attributed to a reduction in sales within its infrastructure segment, responsible for hardware sales like computer servers.
However, IBM anticipates year-over-year revenue growth of at least 3% in 2023, adjusting for currency fluctuations. In fact, when currency fluctuations are accounted for, Q2 year-over-year revenue exhibited a 0.4% increase.
Yet, investors may scrutinize IBM's share price, which currently hovers near its 52-week high. Nevertheless, RBC Capital analyst Matthew Swanson has set an optimistic price target of $188, marking a 30% increase from the current price.
Conclusion
To gauge IBM's potential, let's consider its forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), factoring in consensus price estimates from various analysts. In comparison to cloud competitors Microsoft and Oracle, IBM holds the lowest forward P/E, potentially indicating that its stock is undervalued relative to its peers.
However, it's worth noting that the average price target from analysts currently stands at $147 for IBM shares, aligning closely with the stock's current valuation. Therefore, substantial appreciation in IBM's stock price at its current level seems unlikely.
Nonetheless, IBM's high-yield dividend offers the prospect of consistent passive income over the years. With its strong foothold in the cloud computing and AI markets, coupled with robust FCF generation, IBM presents itself as an appealing long-term income stock.
Our preference
Above 132.00, look for 146.00 and 150.00
IBM show a small level double topIBM show a small level double top
This figure shows the weekly candle chart of IBM's stock from the end of 2019 to the present. The graph overlays the bottom to top golden section at the beginning of 2020. As shown in the figure, IBM's stock tested the 2.000 position of the bottom up golden section twice in December 2022 and this month, completing the small level double top form! So for a period of time in the future, use the bottom of the graph to match the 1.618 position of the golden section as the watershed to judge the strength of IBM's stock!
IBM: Processing… 💻IBM is still processing wave b in red – the second step of a three part downwards movement, which should soon lead to the low of wave B in turquoise. As soon as wave B in turquoise is complete, the share should turn upwards to climb above the resistance at $139.47. There, IBM should conclude wave 2 in green before a significant downwards movement should take hold. However, there is a 35% chance that IBM could rise above $139.47 directly to develop a new top of wave alt.A in turquoise first before turning downwards again.
IBM Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain of IBM International Business Machines Corporation prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing
Puts with a 120usd strike price and an expiration date of 2024-1-19, for a premium of approximately $6.70.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
I am interested to hear your thoughts on this strategy.
IBM in BMV about to start bearish trendI just checked in a long timestamp and found that bullish channel has been broken, also right now I saw wave B is ongoing which makes confluence with H-C-H pattern and bearish Edge pattern too. We can see squeeze momentum is also ready for this bearish trend and CRSI is pointing too.
IBM Chart Forcast -- Bull From current Chan chart of IBM, we can tell, there is possible uptrend spike towards $145 -- previous high. Do leave comment if you have any idea about it's earning or financial information update. I am just reading from chart structure at this time. Overall, IBM is in a bull trend (short-mid-long term ) . If this time, it stand above $145, expecting next (2nd) price level @ 175 and 3rd price target @ $200.
Expected Key Points IBM 12 May 2022IBM 12 May 2022
The current implied volatility is at 35.63%/year
So that converted into daily is 2.24%
The close of yesterday was 130.75
So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed within
TOP 133.68
BOT 127.8
with a probability chance of 81.6% based on the last 3007 candles
From fundamental point, today we have
PPI and initial jobless claims releases and these mark a huge volatility moment
At the same time the current values are expected to be bearish.
IBM AnalysisA bearish idea for IBM , showing a potential drop below the major trendline that has been established
it can be compared to a point in the past where price also went under the major trendline (in red) and took a steep drop
I'm not sure how far it could drop but under the major trendline we will consider it bearish for traders
IBM earnings todayIBM expected to report its Q4 earnings of $3.39 per share, a 60% YoY growth, from $2.07 per share seen in the same period a year ago.
Taking into consideration also the 14K Calls and less than 1K Puts from last Friday, i think that $136 should be the price target.
looking forward to read your opinion about it.
IBM Idea - Restoring TrendlineCurrently price is sitting just under a major trendline that can be drawn
Similarities can be drawn between a dip in the early movement of IBM and one that has occurred recently
Post this dip, the price rose and retook the trendline
I expect this to be the case again
Weekly Chart
IBM 1M The history of the corporation is worthy of respectInternational Business Machines Corporation is an American electronic corporation, one of the world's largest manufacturers of all types of computers and software, one of the largest providers of global information networks.
IBM owns more patents than any other technology company.
The story begins in the 19th century.
If you have been following us for a long time, you should notice that we decided to make a portfolio of ideas from assets in the stock market for the long term.
And of course, it would have been blasphemy if we hadn't written a review of such a powerful company as IBM.
The corporation has been actively developing for more than a century, making our life easier and better by introducing new technologies into it.
Looking at the chart, you can name one dark period in their history - this is the beginning of the 90s, when the price of IBM shares fell to a critical $10.
In the early 1990s, the mainframe market crisis began, which peaked in 1993. And you guessed it - the main developer of mainframes was the IBM corporation. In 1993 Many analysts talking about the complete extinction of mainframes just now, and about the transition from centralized information processing to distributed (although the last mainframe was turned off in 2013).
In 1993, IBM posted a $8bn loss - the largest in American corporate history at the time - and it was time for drastic action.
New gene. director Luis Gerstner decides to cut 20% of its employees, which is 60,000 people. It was the largest cut in American history, but helped the IBM corporation survive from 1993-1994. From 1993 to 2002, when Gerstner left the Big Blue, the company's market capitalization rose from $29 billion to $168 billion . This man is considered the savior of IBM.
The next interesting period is the beginning of 2013 , then a protracted correction in the value of IBM shares began, with which the price is now trying to start going up.
An interesting coincidence is that the price of Gold went into its 6-year correction also at the beginning of 2013.
Such a correlation might suggest that long-term investors have so much faith in IBM that they can view their stock as a defensive asset on par with Gold?)
By the way, below is our global thought in relation to Gold.
So, now let's talk about the prospects that we assume looking at the chart.
The maximum correction that we are now admitting is a fall to $110.50-112.50 , from which we expect a solid rise in the value of IBM shares.
We consider the critical level - $180
Fixing the price above this level will open the way for a long-term growth perspective to $500-530
If the market will be negative, and the price cannot break through above $180, then unfortunately, then it will already be necessary to look towards $70 per IBM share
What do you say, about such material, comes in?
Share your thoughts and expectations in the comments on IBM stock