ETH Daily Kihon Suchi potential reversalWe're looking at a potential movement in the next couple days. The green represents Kihon Suchi at 51 periods on the daily chart from January 1st to 19 February where there was some ranging on the 1 hour chart (purple box) and the beginning of a potential 9 period reversal indication starting on 20 Feb.
The yellow represents 172 Periods on the 4 hour chart to the ranging area indicated by the purple box, with the next range being 51 Periods to a potential reversal.
The candles are very close to the Kumou and the $1425-$1450 area is strong resistance. If the price ranges along the resistance there is potential for upward movement at the edge of the 4 hour 51 period area or the daily 9 period area. If the price moves down and closes below the $1425 area it could move into the cloud where other bearish signals, to include the Tenkan Sen crossing the Kijun downwards, and the Chikou span crossing the price downwards, indicate pretty strong downward movement.
The next few days will let us know which direction to move.
This information is not trading advice, only my personal opinion on potential market movements, and is for educational purposes only.
Ichimoku_trader
BTC Ranging for the weekend? Thoughts?Based on Ichimoku Kinko Hyo analysis, it looks like we are ranging and potentially hitting possibility 1 or moving to possibility 4.
- The purple boxes show ranging on the price and the horizontal Senkou Span B.
- Kumo still showing slight upward movement
- Tenkan Sen above Kijun Sen
- Chiko Span upward looking and above price
- Senkou Span A upward movement
- Distance between recent high and Kumo Cloud is significant, but retracement inevitable
As always thoughts, remarks, and ideas are always welcome!
This information is not trading advice, only my personal opinion on potential market movements, and is for educational purposes only.
Gold/EUR swing MATRIX strategy for latecomersI will provide more technical analysis details for XAU/EUR on the weekly chart. I will provide XAU/USD analysis too.
Strong probability for the price to reach 1380e as the flat of the monthly cloud suggest (strong support here). Idea confirmed by the lagging span because is first obstacles are the highers of august and september 2019 candles at 1380e.
Our ultimate target is 1077e-1050e zone, at those prices we will maybe change the strategy but it will take weeks and months and I will update the idea before we'll reach thoses prices.
From my subjective point of view, I think the price of this old mineral is still overpriced. Bitcoin solves the problem of transporting value in space and time.
See you
Morpheus
The Ichimoku Cloud (Ichimoku Kinko Hyo) - WTF is itSo, the Ichimoku Cloud (Ichimoku Kinko Hyo) - WTF is it??? At first the Ichimoku Cloud can look a bit daunting, but after reading this, hopefully it will put you at ease & you will realise that it is a really neat and powerful indicator that shows you Momentum, Trend, Support and Resistance . Note that you can use the Ichimoku Cloud for all timeframes, but it may not work on monthly or yearly charts if there is not enough previous data.
The Ichimoku Cloud ( Ichimoku Kinko Hyo) is made up of 5 indicators, The Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen), The Base Line (Kijun Sen), Leading Span A (Senkou Span A), Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) and the Lagging Span (Chikou Span).
On TradingView the default settings for the Ichimoku Cloud are:
Conversion Line Periods = 9
The Base Line Line Periods = 26
Lagging Span 2 Periods = 52: Is actually the Leading Span B
Displacement = 26: Is actually the Lagging Span
For the Crypto market, these default settings are no good and we need to adjust the settings because Crypto is 24hrs a day, 7days a week, 365 days a year. Crypto never closes “unless an exchange or broker gets worried” 😜.
Using the TradingView’s system, the Crypto settings need to be changed to:
Conversion Line Periods = 20
The Base Line Line Periods = 60
Lagging Span 2 Periods = 120: Is actually the Leading Span B
Displacement = 30: Is actually the Lagging Span
Some people have posted online saying the displacement should be 60 for Crypto, but that is incorrect. 60 gives too much distance from the Cloud (Kumo) and you cannot get accurate readings for Resistance and Support, so 30 is perfect for Crypto needs.
Using the Crypto Settings, The Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) is a Midpoint of the previous 20 Period Highs and 20 Period Lows. The Base Line (Kijun Sen) is a Midpoint of the previous 60 Period Highs and 60 Period Lows. So they are not SMAs or EMAs. What is neat is that if you change timeframes then you will get the 20 & 60 Period Midpoints for whatever timeframe you are in, so it is a very useful tool to see if there is a possible cascade effect happening on lower timeframes that may cascade on to higher timeframes. If the Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) crosses under the Base Line (Kijun Sen), that is a Sell Signal or varying strength depending on where it crosses in relation to the rest of the Ichimoku Cloud Indicator. If the Base Line (Kijun Sen) crosses back under the Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen), then that is considered a buy signal of varying strength depending on where it crosses in relation to the rest of the Ichimoku Cloud Indicator. The Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) & The Base Line (Kijun Sen) can act as potential Support and Resistance depending on if the current price is above or below either of the indicator lines.
Leading Span A ( Senkou Span A) is a Leading momentum indicator and is already calculated from the Conversion and Base Line values, hence why you only need to add a value for Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) which is 120. The Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) uses double the periods so it will react slower compared to Leading Span A (Senkou Span A). The gap between Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) & Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) is the Cloud (Kumo). If the Cloud (Kumo) is green, that indicates we are in a Bullish Trend for that timeframe. If the Cloud (Kumo) is red, that indicates we are in a Bearish Trend for that timeframe. The area above the cloud is the Bullish Zone & the area below the cloud is the Bearish Zone. Inside the cloud is the Equilibrium Zone, which can be seen as trend-less, uncertainty or trading sideways. A key move to look out for is if the Leading Spans A,B are Crossing/Twisting from either a green cloud into a red cloud or vice versa to indicate a trend reversal. Note the Cloud (Kumo) can be Red or Green while the price action is in the Equilibrium Zone depending on if it dipped down or up into the Cloud (Kumo). Note that because we dip downwards outside of the Cloud (Kumo) that doesn’t mean the Cloud will turn red because we may rebound before the Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) gets a chance to cross Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) and vice versa. If the Cloud (Kumo) is thin then this is a good sign of momentum, when the Cloud (Kumo) starts getting wider, that means momentum is slowing down. The Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) & the Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) can act as potential Support and Resistance depending on if the Price is above or below the Cloud (Kumo), or in the Equilibrium Zone. Note that the Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) & Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) are plotted 30 Periods ahead of the current price.
The Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is a momentum and a 2nd confirmation indicator that enables you to see potential trend changes. Using the Crypto settings, the Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is calculated by shifting the indicator 30 periods behind the last closing price. If the Lagging Span (Chikou Span) indicator is above where the price was at 30 periods ago then that is considered an uptrend for the timeframe you are in. If the Lagging Span (Chikou Span) indicator is below where the price was at 30 periods ago then that is considered a downtrend for the timeframe you are in. A Bullish and Bearish confirmation signal can be seen if the Lagging Span (Chikou Span) indicator crosses up or under that previous 30 period price respectively, but also using the other indicators as conformation. If the Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is inside the previous Price from 30 Periods ago, then that is considered sideways trading, choppy or trend-less.
The Ichimoku Cloud (Ichimoku Kinko Hyo) is designed to be used as a whole and each of the indicators complement one another. It’s best practice to use it with other indicators like, Volume , RSI , VPVR, MACD , ADX or the SMI. This is my first educational post on TradingView, so i'd thought id keep it brief. I’ll update and go into the different confirmation buy/sell levels, and more on each of the indicators at a later date. I hope you have found this educational post helpful 🙏
In fact, reading this thing back, its not really that brief is it 😅👍
BTC - Potential Short-Term ShorAt the moment of typing this, BTC is testing its 1st Ichimoku Cloud Support on the 1hr chart. If that 1st IC support fails then it will become our new Resistance. We can also see that BTC is testing its lower level of its Bollinger Bands. For confirmation of the potential downwards momentum, wait for the Ichimoku Conversion Line (Blue) to cross back under the Ichimoku Base Line (Orange). If we just use the Ichimoku Cloud then we can see our next of potential level of support is the 2nd Ichimoku Cloud support at $36,000. If that 2nd support fails, then BTC will finally be in a short-term bearish trend because it will finally be in the Bearish Zone of the Ichimoku Cloud System. Looking at our Average Directional Index, the ADX line is 34 and the -DI (Red line) is at 35 and the +DI (Green Line) is at 11 indicating the short-term downtrend is strong. Good Luck
BTC - D1 - TENKAN IS AND REMAINS A GOOD BAROMETER...D1 : As already mentioned several times in my previous analysis, Tenkan-Sen should be seen as a good barometer : BULLISH above and BEARISH below !
H4 : Holding very well above the clouds. First significant support @ 35574 ahead of 33552 (MBB)
H1 : A downside move below MBB would probably trigger and confirm a short term reversal towards 33926 ahead of 32737 (50% Fib Ret)
M15 : Watch carefully clouds support zone
Have a nice day.
BTC - D1 - Tenkan-Sen = GOOD BAROMETER !D1 : Very impressive price action
Tenkan-Sen, currently @ 29642 should be seen as the first significant support on a Daily basis analysis, ahead of Kijun-Sen and MBB
H4 : Same picture than D1, first support @ 32050 and of 31064 and 30680
H1 : Watch MBB , ST bullish above and ST bearish below
M15 : 50% Fib ret of last upside move is @ 32'400 which is roughly the middle of clouds support zone
Conclusion : As long as BTC stays and hold above Tenkan-Sen, which worked, so far, perfectly well as a support indicator the trend remains bullish on a daily basis for higher levels.
Only a clear breakout of Tenkan-Sen, currently @ 29642 would force to a reassessment view of the expected bullish scenario
Hit my entry level and opened a long positionI should have waited for the breakout however decided to enter on the new higher high to not to be late for the party, now it looks it bounced back from the upper side of the triangle maybe it is going to be ranging in there for a while, still waiting for the TK cross to happen to give us an other confirmation the kumo twist just occured which is positive for now, placed my stop loss bellow the TK lines and just below the triangle.
EDUCATION: Ichimoku - Part 1Hello, dear subscribers!
Today we starting the training series of the Ichimoku Indicator trading. This article is about the Ichimoku definition and the easiest trading strategy using it.
What is the Ichimoku Indicator?
This indicator consists of 4 components:
1) Conversion Line - the 9 period high - low average price, demonstrates the short term period trend. When the price above it - the market is in local uptrend.
2) Base Line - the 26 period high - low avearge. It means the same as the conversion line but in the medium term period.
3) Lagging Span - close price plotted 26 period in the past. It can be used for the trend confirmation. When the lagging span is above the price it means the strong uptrend.
4) Cumo Cloud Lines - this lines will be examined in the next education article.
Ichimoku Strategy (Conversion + Base + Lagging Span)
The first Ichimoku strategy is very easy to apply for your trading. First of all you should filter signals with the lagging span: when it is above the price - it is time for long, in opposite - for short.
When it is done you should find the point, where the conversion line crossed over the baseline from down to up and execute long position.
You can exit long the conversion line bacame lower that the base line. The additional confirmation for exiting the position is the lagging span and price crossover.
Next time we will examine the most interesting part - the Ichimoku Cloud and appropriate strategies.