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Ichimoku Cloud

Xiaomi Drops but Strong Results & EV Entry Are SupportiveThe stock of Xiaomi posts its first losing week in more than a month, despite its mostly strong quarterly results on Thursday and the upgraded guidance on EV deliveries. The drop likely reflects the broader decline of the Hang Seng Index due to geopolitical concerns. It also makes sense from a technical standpoint, since it had reached highly overbought levels. It is now at a critical technical juncture, as it tests the 50 line on the RSI and is exposed to the 38.2% Fibonacci of this year’s advance. A breach of these levels would open the door to deeper correction that could challenge the EMA200 (black line) and the Ichimoku Cloud, but these levels can contains such moves. However, Xiaomi reported a 27% y/y increase in revenue in Q1 and 37.6% y/y rise in operating profits. Furthermore, its smartphone shipments increased and the No 3 maker globally can benefit from the expected recovery of the market, following last year’s contraction. Most importantly, the Chinese smartphone maker made its foray into electric vehicles this year, continuing to diversify and search for new growth markets. Demand for its SU7 sedan, deliveries of which began in late March, has been very high. It has already handed over 10,000 vehicles since May 15 and aims to deliver more than 100K units this year. Its entry into EVs has fueled a rally in its stock and can drive further gains. Even if there is risk of deeper pullback, the path of least resistance is higher, especially if the 38.2% Fibonacci holds. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
HKEX:1810Long
by FXCM
Kiwi Upside Bias Strengthened after Hawkish RBNZThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a hawkish hold on Wednesday, as it raised the OCR forecast to 5.7%, leaving room for further tightening. Policymakers believe that longer restriction may be needed to achieve the 1-3% inflation target and also upgraded their forecast, expecting CPI to fall less and slower than previously thought. The US Fed meanwhile has adopted a cautious stance towards removing monetary restraint, due to stubborn inflation this year, strong economy and robust labor market. The central bank is still widely expected to lower rates this year though. Most commentary - including from Chair Powell - has dismissed prospects of rate hikes, pointing to the need that sustained restrictive stance to control inflation. The monetary policy differential favors the Kiwi, since RBNZ has kept more tightening in play, whereas its US counterpart has hinted to cuts. NZD/USD is on the driver’s seat with the ability to tackle 0.6219, although news 2024 highs, but further gains towards 0.6412 have higher degree of difficulty. On the other hand, the Fed’s apprehension provides support to the greenback and this can create pressure back toward the EMA200 (black line). Daily closes below it would pause the upside bias, but sustained weakness below it does not look easy – fundamentally and technically as the daily Ichimoku looms. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Long
by FXCM
Can we time the market? YES!There is an old, seemingly wise saying, that says "time in the market beats timing the market!" This works for people that do not want to do the work... to study repeatable patterns. Throughout the bull market of 2024 (yes, the market is in a bull market) I have been waiting for and been asked by followers "is THIS the pullback to go long?" Generally, the answer is no and I have a reason rooted in Technical Analysis that I talk about in this video. But eventually... the market reveals itself to us with repeating phenomenon in price action. I have posted individual videos over the last two months as this pullback has gone on in the S&P 500. When it finally reached its culmination I talked about making my yearly allocation in tax advantages accounts. You can see these too and in this video I teach exactly how.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by norok
4
Bitcoin Spike at ResistanceBitcoin HELD the Last Support noted in my Idea last week. That save INDEX:BTCUSD from going bearish. However, it is not out of the woods yet. Today Bitcoin spiked the 50% Retracement Resistance at 64652. This sets up a short trade where if the high of the spike is broken "you know you're wrong" for a low risk/high reward trade. If the Spike high is broken... Bitcoin may trend bullish and even resume the full bull trend onward to 100k+. However, if this spike is a reversal and price retests the lows of last week, this will trigger a full trend flip to bearish via the Ichimoku cloud.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
1
Last Support for BitcoinToday Bitcoin has hit the last level of Support for the Bullish Trend that has persisted since October 2023. This comes after making a new All Time High but failing to truly capture the prior All Time High by closing decidedly above it on the Weekly/Monthly. The Level in question price has hit is a medium-significance Volume Profile level from the bullish trend. Volume Profile has had incredible efficacy in predicting the inflection points of Bitcoin during the last few months. The significant levels above the current price action are: $62k Support to Turn Resistance $51.8k Support It is important to note WHY this is the "last Support" for Bitcoin here at $51.9k. In the near future I will publish a video about Bitcoin and the Daily Ichimoku cloud as an update to past talks about this method of analysis. TL;DR following the Daily Ichimoku Cloud for trend analysis with Bitcoin is superior to just HODL and I will prove it. For now, price is NOT bearish. In fact, the bullish trend is contained by the cloud just as it was in January 2024. However, if price moves down to the NEXT Support at $51.8k it will invalidate the bullish trend flipping it bearish. It is likely price will respond to that support but by then the bullish trend of 2023-2024 will have ended. Price must hold here at this Support and then it can recapture the cloud to resume to Bullish Trend. This is a highly decisive moment in Price action today.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
1
Technical Trading Analysis ReportTechnical Trading Analysis Report: Chart Analysis: The day's trading session concluded with a strong green bar displaying a notable long wick, as the market index tested the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern. Notably, today's session marks the 10th consecutive session since the index's recent peak. Price action indicates a traditional candlestick price of 26,113, with a corresponding Heikin Ashi price at 25,669. However, concerns emerge given the persisting low trading volume and the index's positioning below the 26-day Moving Average. While potentially entering wave 5 of the Elliot Wave cycle, the index exhibited resilience by breaching the lower Bollinger Band. Albeit, the current price level of 26,113 falls notably short of the middle band at 27,852. A positive trend is observed in the Chikou Span, despite the index remaining beneath a bearish cross at 27,147, marking a 3.95% decrease. Further insights are gained from analyzing the Senko Span B level, which currently stands at 30,357, signaling a 16.2% uptrend. A pivot to a safe haven may trigger upon the occurrence of a bullish TK cross and a concurrent rise in the Chikou Span, even if the index persists below the Kumo cloud. Additionally, the index's price wick has interacted with the lower band of the linear regression, while the Senko Span B is anticipated to maintain a flat trajectory until June 2nd, followed by a subsequent 46-degree downward trend of Senko Span A. Key Observations: The current market sentiment reflects a cautious environment. Despite initial bullish indications through breaching the lower Bollinger Band and challenging the head and shoulders pattern's neckline, notable concerns persist. Of specific note is the low trading volume, suggesting wavering market participant conviction, alongside the index's subordination to the 26-day Moving Average, implying a nuanced bearish sentiment. While the Elliot Wave theory hints at potential bullish momentum, highlighted by the breach of the lower Bollinger Band, caution is advised due to the bearish cross below 27,147 and the Senko Span B's forecasted stagnation until June 2nd. In light of the nuanced market conditions, traders looking to engage in daily or same-day trading should exercise selectivity. Prioritizing stocks with strong fundamentals, positive momentum, and potentially high Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios could be a strategic approach. Comprehensive research on individual stock attributes, earnings reports, industry trends, and prevailing market sentiment is essential for informed decision-making. Identifying stocks exhibiting relative strength against market uncertainties can also be beneficial for traders seeking stability amidst market fluctuations. Ultimately, a structured trading strategy emphasizing defined entry and exit points, coupled with effective risk management practices, is imperative for optimizing trading outcomes and mitigating potential losses.
EGX:EGX30
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
AUD/USD Rises on Hotter than Expected AU InflationAUD/USD rises today as inflation data from Australia came in higher than anticipated. March CPI accelerated for the first the first time in months (+3.5% y/y), Q1 rose 1% q/q (from +0.6% prior) and on a yearly basis it came in at 3.6%, which was above forecast. The Reserve Bank of Australia has refrained from raising rates for the past three meetings and has hinted at peak rates, but has not ruled out further hikes and seems far from cuts. Its US peer on the other hand, has pointed to multiple rate cuts this year, despite adopting a conservative approach. The hotter than expected inflation report makes an RBA pivot less likely and boosts AUD/USD further. It had already made a strong start to the week, since the contraction in US manufacturing activity offered a sign of weakness for the US economy that could help the Fed lower interest rates. The pair tries to take out the EMA200 that could pause the bearish bias and give it the opportunity to challenge the March highs (06668). However, the immediate upside appears unfriendly, with multiple roadblocks and the Relative Strength Index points to overbought conditions. Furthermore, the recent hawkish repricing around the Fed’s policy path will likely continue to weigh on the pair, while Australia’s Q1 y/y inflation showed further moderation. As such, AUD/USD is likely to face renewed pressure that can lead to new 2024 lows (0.6362), although sustained weakness towards and beyond 0.6269 does not look easy. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Short
by FXCM
1
Oil Downside Risk on Easing Geopolitical FearsThe Middle East hostilities have so far not created any substantial impact on oil traffic and USOil (WTI) faces pressure, as fears of a broader Israel-Iran conflict subside. Israel has reportedly retaliated for Tehran’s recent missile and drone strikes, but both sides appear to downplay the matter, diminishing the risk for further escalation. Looking at the broader fundamentals, demand is likely to decelerate this year, while non-OPEC production is expected to cover the OPEC+ supply curbs. USOil closed Monday below its EMA200 (black line), which pauses the recent bullish momentum and creates scope for deeper pullback towards the critical confluence of support, provided by the daily Ichimoku Cloud and the ascending trend line from the December lows. Further losses below it have a higher degree of difficulty though. On the other hand, Middle East concerns are unlikely to go away and any escalation prospects can push prices higher again. USOil already finds reprieve today and tries to reclaim the EMA200. This would reinstate the upside bias and allow it to push for new 2024 highs (87.66), but those of the previous year (95.05) look distant. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:USOIL
by FXCM
Kiwi Upbeat after the RBNZ Hold but US CPI LoomsNZD/USD reacted positively as the RBNZ kept rates again at 5.5%, appeared a little more worried about inflation than the last time and said it is necessary to maintain a restrictive stance to reduce price pressures. The move above the EMA200 gives it the opportunity to take out the 38.2% Fibonacci, but does not yet inspire confidence for further gains that would challenge 0.6217. RBNZ appears further form a pivot than its US counterpart, but the Fed has turned cautious around lowering rates and the three cuts scenario is being questioned. The RSI points to overbought conditions that can contain the upside and a rejection of the 38.2% Fibo would keep new 2024 lows in play (0.5938). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
by FXCM
ETH at Support... but has Ichimoku ProblemINDEX:ETHUSD has sold off from the recent high down to a critical support at 2406. This support is the 50% Retracement of the Year to Date bullish thrust and also matches with the Ichimoku Kijun Sen. The Support level is also held up by the prior highs of the December 2023 consolidation range. When analyzing this chart to make an opinion if the Support may hold I found elements of Ichimoku yielded a highly probable answer. So while this post is an analysis I would like to educate readers on an important technique when using Ichimoku. Ichimoku is best used with Multi-Timeframe Analysis. The way the indicator is drawn, using 50% Retracements, lends itself well to finding matching levels and patterns across related timeframes. Often times when a symbol is at the Kijun Sen (the 26 period line) on a higher timeframe it will match with the Kumo Cloud on the lower timeframe. The lower timeframes I found that work best for the Daily are the 4 Hour (for most things that trade 24 hours) and 2 Hour (for stocks). This allows there to be sufficient number of bars on a lower timeframe that will combine together to a fractal level up on the higher timeframe. After looking at the higher timeframe (Daily) let's now drill down to the lower 4 Hour timeframe for our answer: Down on the 4 Hour we see that price has breached the cloud and momentum (the purple line/lagging span/Chikou) has also crossed to the bearish side of the cloud. This means that on the lower timeframe price has confirmed a trend change from neutral (when it was inside the cloud) to bearish. What this tells us is that while we have identified a Support on the Daily the lower timeframe is telling us that it has been breached and no longer likely to hold. As a bonus trick to learn when using Ichimoku one can look at the direction of the Tenkan Sen and project its future location. In order for a trend to reverse the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen must align in a bullish or bearish configuration. (Red < Green = Bearish, Red > Green = Bullish). Presently on the Daily the TS/KS configuration is still bullish but the Tenkan Sen "turned" a few bars prior. It is now heading down to potentially cross the Kijun Sen to become bearish. So we have a lower timeframe trend change on the lower timeframe and a subtle hint on the primary timeframe that this Support which price is currently holding may in fact fail. Time will tell and I'll be watching this closely to see if it provides a good teachable moment. TL;DR: INDEX:ETHUSD at critical 2378 Support but lower timeframe suggests it will break lower.
INDEX:ETHUSDShort
by norok
1