Weekly Analysis BTC via Ichimoku Good start to the week,
Let us analyze at a glance the daily chart of BINANCE:BTCUSDT with Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. We use the traditional settings. There are other indicators in the analysis. We have developed and released them Open Source.
Trend:
Kumo has been red for 26 days and is 4.2% wide. The various lines confirm a downtrend situation and we are below the Kumo, going towards the Tenkan Weekly. The already bearish momentum has been further exacerbated by the lawsuit to Binance by the SEC.
The Kijun Trend indicator now indicates looking for short positions, now since May 9, 2023
Heikin-Ashi:
Instead, the Heikin-Ashi is communicating uncertainty to us, as we are still inside the Kumo and certainly today's day pushed the price towards the lower end of the Kumo.
Supports and resistances:
- 28900.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan
- 27800.00-27900.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 25000.00 Fibonacci
- 24800.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 24400.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
For static price levels, the lower right chart plots the flat zones of Tenkan, Kijun, Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B on different timeframes, and the Chikou for the daily time frame.
For dynamic price levels, the Ichimoku lines can be observed: the Tenkan Sen (short term), the Kijun Sen (medium term) as well as the Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B (long term).
Conclusions:
For the past month the situation is bearish, today after the announcement that the SEC has sued Binance, it has led to fear in the markets, generating a candle at the moment of about -5.5%. There are several allegations: first of all about the fact that some coins are considered as securities(e.g. BNB, BUSD, SOL, SAND, FIL, ADA, MATIC, COTI, ALGO, ATOM, MANA, since they can be staked to generate annuity) and therefore need a license to be managed, non-compliance with the ban towards US users and some suspicious transactions carried out by CZ and on the management of clients' funds. In contrast, Binance has defended itself by rejecting allegations that it maneuvered customer funds and that it has always cooperated--from the creation of binance.us--with the SEC and thus points to the allegations as unjustified.
It is possible to find a sideways/rebass ABC pattern indicating the following levels: NT 29230, N 26655, E 24080, V 23296.
It is important to evaluate the price close during the week on the following price structures:
- Bullish: 27100.00-28700.00
- Bearish/Lateral: 24800.00-28155.00
Altcoin Cycle:
For Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Cycle we can consider the weekly variation:
- Total cryptocurrency market capital: Decreased.
- Dominance of BTC: Decreased.
- Price of BTC: Decreased.
- Alt cycle expectation: Stable.
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Indicators used:
Analysis Tool
Kijun Trend Indicator
Ichimoku Support and Resistance
Chikou Support and Resistance
Ichimoku Cloud
EUR/CHF - LONG - ANALYSIS + EXPLANATIONThe "EUR/CHF" has been in a downtrend since March – 2021, and it is obvious that we can expect a trend reversal if necessary.
> The EUR is the base currency of the pair and has suffered greatly from the USD (DXY) appreciation.
> The CHF is generally seen as a security, which is why the EUR is losing out to them.
--> Once the USD (DXY) shows signs of corrective behavior, I personally expect a significant upswing.
= What this upswing might look like, I'll let you know in the following lines.
Table of contents
- 1st part = CURRENT STATE
- 2nd part = TARGET ZONE PROPERTIES
- 3rd part = CONCLUSION
PART ONE
Since the end of July until today, a formation has formed, which is also known as the "Head&Shoulders - pattern".
--> This is formed in the EUR/CHF "OVERCOME", which is usually ended with a "Bullish" breakout.
--> The neckline (breakout line) of the pattern, is located at the resistance line (gold-spiked), which has formed since March / 2020.
Thus, it can be concluded that if the pattern breaks out "successfully", we will also break the resistance line.
After the break of this resistance line, the following sequence of events would be possible:
1. SHORT-TERM TARGET = 1.618 FIB -> 0.98977
2. TEST = of the broken resistance -> conversion into support
3. TARGET = TARGET ZONE 1
SECOND PART
"TARGET ZONES" are drawn on the chart, all of which have "concentrated" resistance characteristics.
1. | TARGET ZONE | 0.99718 - 1.00000 | points
RESISTANCE - CHARACTERISTICS
- "MSB" (Market Structure Break) | March/2022 LL.
- "FIB" (Fibonacci) = 0.328s | Created March/2021 - September/2022
- "POI" (Point of interest) = 1.00000 | Psychologically important resistance level
- "MA" (Simple Moving Average) = 8-long | Monthly chart
- "ICHIMOKU CLOUD" = Conversion line | Weekly chart + Baseline | Monthly chart
- "VP" (Volume Profile) = GAP in the zone | Not much volume traded = little resistance.
2. | TARGET ZONE | 1.00879 - 1.01526 | points
RESISTANCE - CHARACTERISTICS
- "MSB" (market structure break) | HL of April/2022
- "FIB" (Fibonacci) = 0.618s + 0.65s | Created = May/2022 - September/2022
- "FIB" (Fibonacci) = 1.618s | Originated = 02/09/2022 - 26/09/2022
- "POI" (Point of interest) = 1.01000 | Psychologically important resistance
- "MA" (Simple Moving Average) = 50-length | weekly chart + 200-length | daily chart
- "ICHIMOKU CLOUD" = no resistance in the HTF (Higher time frame) time levels T / W / M
- "VP" (Volume Profile) = small volume | not much past traded volume = little resistance to the upside .
3. | TARGET ZONE | 1.02391 - 1.02791 | points
RESISTANCE - CHARACTERISTICS
- "RESISTANCE LINE" | Created September/2021 (4x touches).
- "FIB" (Fibonacci) = 0.75s + 0.786s | Created = May/2022 - September/2022
- "POI" (Point of interest) = 1.02500 | Psychologically important resistance level
- "SUPPLY ZONE" = | Monthly chart
- "ICHIMOKU CLOUD" = Cloud resistance | Weekly chart + Conversion line | Monthly chart
- "VP" (Volume Profile) = Strong Volume | Much Past Traded Volume = Major Resistance.
X. | POI ZONE | 1.03736 - 1.03936 | Points
RESISTANCE - CHARACTERISTICS
- "FIB" (Fibonacci) = 0.88s | Originated = May/2022 - September/2022
- "POI" (Point of interest) = 1,04000 | Psychologically important resistance
- "SUPPLY ZONES" = | Daily + Weekly chart
- "VP" (Volume Profile) = Strongest volume | Highest past traded volume concentration = Very large resistance.
- "MA" (Simple Moving Average) = 50-length | monthly chart.
- "ICHIMOKU CLOUD" = no resistance in HTF (Higher time frame) time levels T / W / M
4th | TARGET ZONE | 1.04839 - 1.05398 | points
RESISTANCE PROPERTIES
- "FIB" (Fibonacci) = 0.618s + 0.65s | Created March/2021 - September/2022
- "POI" (Point of interest) = 1.05000 | Psychologically important resistance level
- "MA" (Simple Moving Average) = 100-length | weekly chart + 50-length | monthly chart
- SUPPLY ZONES" = daily + weekly + monthly chart
- "VP" (Volume Profile) = GAP in the zone | Not much past traded volume = little resistance to the upside.
CONCLUSION
You now know what the scenario for "EUR/CHF" could look like.
The following conditions must be met:
- DXY (USD) starts to CORRECT = pressure way fall for the EUR -> EUR more dominant than CHF
- BREAKOUT of the H&S pattern
-> OVERCOME the resistance line + successful back-test
= transformation into a support line.
- DEVELOPMENT of the individual ZONES and their relevant resistance properties.
PS:
+ I have once taken the liberty to draw a possible "course", so you can see how it could run.
+ Many of the indicators described are not visible in the chart, so that a clear view remains.
-> Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I'd be "burning" to hear your take on the whole thing.
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive a review of it.
Thank you and happy trading!
For anyone who would still enjoy the other HTF and want to hide all the "noise" - following the weekly and monthly chart.
US30 approaches cloudsI know that the market (price) doesn't know technical indicators, and doesn't know moving averages...
But because I am using the Ichimoku indicator and the term cloud is for convenience and brevity in analysis.
Actually, the market doesn't know Ichimoku's cloud, but this cloud represents the market's sentiment.
US30 still in selling pressureToday I continue to make analysis video about the US30 index.
The daily time frame of the price is maintaining the selling status.
On H4 the price is below the cloud. Future clouds are expanding downward.