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ETHUSD Weekly Ichimoku Analysis for Week 2 2023General outlook The overall market trend is still downwards and I expect that we will see more in Q1 downward pressure due to adjustment of earnings and the higher and higher possibility of, at least, a mild recession in the US and EU. The Crypto market will also be pointing further downwards as the stock and crypto markets are still highly correlated. The overall sentiment is also still negative. This leads me to the question of how low can the overall market go as everyone expects a recession, bad earnings, and a 20% drop in the S&P in the next two quarters. If the market is forward-looking why we are not down at -20%right now?? CPI We will get volatility latest on Thursday with the CPI print. CPI in November was 7.1%. The consensus for December is 6.5%. The current Cleveland Nowcast is at 6.64% and the tradingeconomics.com forecast is at 6.7%. On the other hand, the December CPI prints in Europe were below expectations. Due to these mixed signals, I will stay away from trade on Thursday. If I'm in a trade I will keep a tight stop loss. Earnings Season This week will start the earnings season for Q4/2023. As the current sentiment is quite negative and the expectations are low, this could lead to a surprise. Even if the results are bad, as long as they above the expectations this could be more fuel for the current rally. Still the room to the upside should be limited. Ichimoku analysis My weekly analysis is based on the 4H chart. Lagging Span is above Price and Cloud Conversion Line crossed Base Line Price is above the cloud Currently Conversion Line, Base Line, and Kumo are flat / ranging Green Kumo ahead 4H Resistance / Support Zone Resistance at 1275 USD - 0,618 Fibonacci retracement from FTX crash Support at 1250 USD - 0,5 Fibonacci retracement, 8H and 12H Ichimoku Cloud Long Idea - I would like to see a retest of the baseline (1255 USD), which also confluence with the of 8H, and 12H support at 1.250 USD. This is also the lower boundary of the bull flag. Take Profit Target 1: 1320 USD Take Profit Target 1: 1350 USD Stop Loss: Tight stop loss below Base Line as the S/R window is narrow. Short Idea - When the support at 1.250 USD is broken and retested Take Profit Target 1: 1.200 USD Take Profit Target 1: 1.160 USD Stop Loss: Tight stop above the cloud
INDEX:ETHUSD
by chukymuc
1
ICHIMOKU WEATHER REPORT: Daily Forecast of Nikkei 225Daily follow-up of the Weekly Forecast. I think it probable that price will continue on its downward trend despite the spike in price after the FED announcement last week. Nikkei tends to follow the direction of the U.S. Indices which also spiked upward after the FED announcement.(Price will most likely test the High of Friday before continuing lower; maybe a period of Ranging price will occur before the definitive downtrend.) Price is below Kumo, Senkou Span B has begun its downward turn, Chikou Span is below the candles and the Tenkan/Kijun Deathcross is present. In addition to the elements of confluence listed above, I have counted the preceding Price, Time and Wave cycles that are the main Pillars of The Ichimoku Indicator and if the counted cycles remain true, Nikkei will continue lower.
JShort
by ICHIMOKUREPORT
1
ETHUSD Ichimoku 4H Szenarios Week 1 2023Here is my weekly 4H INDEX:ETHUSD Ichimoku Analysis for Week 1. General outlook The overall market trend is still downwards and I expect that we will see more in Q1 downward pressure due to adjustment of earnings and the higher and higher possibility of, at least, a mild recession in the US and EU. The Crypto market will be also pointing further downwards as the stock and crypto markets are still highly correlated. Ichimoku analysis My weekly analysis is based on the 4H chart. Lagging Span is above Price and Cloud Conversion Line crossed Base Line Price is above the cloud Currently Conversion Line, Base Line, and Kumo are flat / ranging Currently no green Kumo twist 4H Resistance / Support Zone Resistance between 1225 USD and 1232 USD Support between 1185 USD and 1180 USD Long Idea - When the resistance zone at 1230 USD turns to support, Kumo twist happens and Cloud + Base Line points upwards Take Profit Target: 1280 USD Stop Loss: Below Base Line Short Idea - When Kumo cloud support at 1200 USD is broken and retested, and the price is below Cloud + Base Line pointing downwards Take Profit Target 2: 1150 USD Stop Loss: Above Cloud
INDEX:ETHUSD
by chukymuc
1
S&P500 Weekly Ichimoku Analysis for Week 2 2023General outlook for SP:SPX The overall market trend is still downwards and I expect that we will see more in Q1 downward pressure due to adjustment of earnings and the higher and higher possibility of, at least, a mild recession in the US and EU. The FED will tighten the monetary policy further with one or two rate hikes of 25 bps in Q1. Furthermore, QT is running with 90 Trillion per month. This week all FED communication was clearly hawkish with statements that the terminal rate will be up to 5,4% in 2023 and no rate cuts in 2023. I will still act according to "never fight the FED". Therefore, all bullish signs are short-lived and any chance to sell into a rally should be still used. Since mid-December the S&P in a range between 3.900 USD and 3.770 USD. As described above the overall market trend should still be bearish, at least in Q1 and Q2. There the likelihood of a bullish break out over 3.900 USD is quite low in my opinion. In case there is a short-term bullish outbreak, this will be pushed back by the 1-year downward resistance line with sits at around 4.000 USD at the moment. Before this trendline is not broken and switched into support, I will be very cautious on the long side. For next week I expect some volatility due to the inflation number. Especially as the inflation number in France and Germany came out lower than expected this week. Ichimoku analysis My weekly analysis is based on the 1D chart. Lagging Span is below the Price Base line is above Conversion Line Price is within the cloud -> Price ranging Currently Conversion Line, Base Line, and Kumo are flat / ranging 4H Resistance / Support Zone Resistance between 3885 USD and 3900 USD Support between 3785 USD and 3770 USD Long Idea - Price Breaks above cloud resistance at 3960 USD and turns the 1-year downward resistance line into support. In my view, this will not happen in the next 3-4 months. Short Idea - Price Breaks below the cloud and below 4H resistance at 3770 USD I will look for a retest of the support zone. If there is a retest this should be a good short opportunity. Take Profit Target: 3565 USD (around 2022 yearly low) Stop Loss: Above Base line
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by chukymuc
1