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ICLN

The Week Ahead: MJ, SRNE, INO, NKLA, XOP, ICLN, IWM PremiumLooking for the juice? Here's where it's at ... . Options Highly Liquid Single Name >$10/Share With Earnings in the Rear View, Sorted By 30-Day with a >50% Cut-Off: CRON (43/236) (Cannabis) AMC (21/218) (Theatres) TLRY (40/185) (Cannabis) SRNE (5/165) (Biotech) INO (4/145) (Biotech) ACB (11/127) (Cannabis) NKLA (12/125) (EV) CGC (23/99) (Cannabis) NCLH (4/99) (Cruise Lines) NIO (34/97) (ADR; EV) M (5/80) (Retail) IQ (13/75) (ADR; Internet) RCL (2/72) (Cruise Lines) DKNG (5/69) (Online Gambling) CLDR (6/64) (Software) JD (28/61) (ADR; Internet Retail) DDOG (19/61) (Software) GPS (10/54) (Apparel) AEO (1/52) (Apparel) Options Highly Liquid Exchange-Traded Funds, Sorted By 30-Day, With a >35% Cut-Off: MJ (47/80) (Cannabis) XOP (6/57) (Oil and Gas) ICLN (10/54) (Clean Energy) LIT (40/52) (Battery Tech) JETS (1/46) (Airlines) EWU (3/46) (United Kingdom) XBI (20/44) (Biotech) EWZ (3/43) (Brazil) XLE (6/41) (Energy) GDX (3/39) (Gold Miners) KRE (6/38) (Regional Banks) SLV (8/38) (Silver) XLK (7/36) (Technology) Broad Market, Sorted by 30-Day: IWM (7/31) QQQ (10/31) SPY (3/20) DIA (0/20) EFA (2/15) The Pictured Trade: Depicted here is an MJ July 16th (124 DTE) 17 short put, which was paying 1.11 at the mid price as of Friday close, 6.99% ROC at max as a function of notional risk (20.6% annualized). This is quite a bit more long-dated than I like to go generally, so I'll probably wait for a May monthly to open up (probably next week after the March monthly drops off) before considering doing anything. Similarly, neither ICLN, LIT, nor JETS have May monthlies yet and April will have a gotten a bit short in duration (currently 33 DTE) for those like me who prefer to work with a 45 day or less wheel house.
AMEX:MJ
by NaughtyPines
The Week Ahead: WKHS, TLRY, NKLA, ACB, MJ, TAN, ICLN, IWMI'm doing a quick and dirty this week just to give me a sense of where premium is at ... . Highly Liquid Single Name With Earnings in the Rear View Ranked by 30-Day Implied Volatility: WKHS (27/232) (EV) TLRY (13/193) (Cannabis) NKLA (15/138) (EV) ACB (6/124) (Cannabis) SPCE (30/120) (Aerospace) PLUG (39/113) (Alternative Energy) NIO (41/107) (EV) TEVA (11/103) (Pharmaceuticals) TSLA (30/103) (EV, Alternative Energy) NCLH (6/95) (Cruise Lines) Highly Liquid Exchange-Traded Funds Ranked by 30-Day Implied Volatility: MJ (39/76) (Cannbais) TAN (47/71) (Solar) ICLN (10/56) Alternative Energy) KRE (9/54) (Regional Banking) LIT (41/53) (Alternative Energy) JETS (41/53) (Airlines) SMH (21/46) (Semiconductor) EWZ (7/46) (Brazil) XLE (3/46) (Energy) XBI (27/45) (Biopharma) Highly Liquid Broad Market Exchange-Traded Funds Ranked by 30-Day Implied Volatility: IWM (13/35) (Russell 2000) QQQ (13/32) (Nasdaq) SPY (8/24) (S&P 500) DIA (3/22) (Dow Jones) EFA (6/19) (Global Equity, ex. Canada/U.S.).
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines
2
The Week Ahead: MJ, LIT, ICLN, IWM/RUT, TNXOptions Highly Liquid Single Name With Earnings in the Rear View Mirror, Ranked by Percentage the April 16th At-the-Money Short Straddle is Paying as a Function of Stock Price: AMC (24/221/50.6) (Movie Theatre) TLRY (26/162/44.7) (Cannabis) ACB (3/120/33.9) (Cannabis) NKLA (12/128/30.9) (EV) PLUG (44/114/30.7) (EV, Hydrogen) SPCE (22/106/28.9) (Space Tourism) CRON (47/104/28.3) (Cannabis) CGC (20/97/24.1) (Cannabis) M (18/95/21) (Department Store) PBR (16/117/18.7) (Petro) Options Highly Liquid Exchange-Traded Funds, Ranked by Percentage the April 16th At-the-Money Short Straddle is Paying as a Function of Stock Price: MJ (40/76/22.1) (Cannabis) LIT (46/57/15.5) (Lithium and Battery Tech) ICLN (9/53/14.5) (Global Clean Energy Index) EWZ (16/54/13.6) (Brazil) JETS (2/48/13.3) (Global Jets) SLV (30/49/12.4) (Silver) XRT (22/56/11.6) (Retail) XBI (24/41/11.2) (Biotech) XLE (9/49/11.2) (Energy) KRE (14/69/10.9( (Regional Banking) Broad Market, Ranked by Percentage the April 16th At-the-Money Short Straddle is Paying as a Function of Stock Price: IWM (18/36/9.5) (Russell 2000) QQQ (17/33/8.7) (Nasdaq) SPY (14/26/6.4) (S&P 500) DIA (7/24/6.1) (Dow Jones) EFA (18/19/5.7) (Global, ex. Canada/U.S.) Bond Funds, Ranked by Percentage the April 16th At-the-Money Short Straddle is Paying as a Function of Stock Price: TLT (23/27/4.9) (20+ Maturity Treasuries) (1.63% Yield) EMB (12/18/2.9) (Emerging Market Bonds) (3.99% Yield) HYG (17/15/2.8) (High Yield Corporate/Junk) (4.82% Yield) AGG (19/9/2.2) (U.S. Aggregate Bonds) (2.15% Yield) Comments: For a number of weeks running, implied remains high in the cannabis sector, with TLRY, ACB, CRON, and CGC at the top of the single name list, and MJ at the top of the ETF list. Pictured here is a plain Jane MJ April 16th 16 delta short put, which paid .63/contract as of Friday close, a potential 3.63% ROC at max, 28.2% annualized at max as a function of notional risk. Lithium and battery tech follows with the April (47 days) at-the-money short straddle paying greater than 15% and the April 15th 16 delta 51 short put paying 1.18 at the mid as of Friday close, a potential 2.37% ROC at max as a function of notional risk (18.4% annualized). The ICLN April 16th 17 delta 22 short put paid .47 as of Friday close -- 2.18% ROC at max as a function of notional risk (16.9% annualized). On the broad market front, IWM 30-day implied finished the week at >35%, followed by QQQ action at just a nibble under that mark at 33. The IWM April 16th 16 delta at the 189 was paying 3.05 (1.64% at max); the QQQ April 16th 16 at the 275, 4.15 (1.53% at max). An honorable mention goes out to the T-bill and TLT shorters (who knew that trading T bills could be fun?) who shorted TLT or /ZN at pandemic highs, only to see yields on the ten-year T's move from .50 to 1.5 (and TLT from the 170's to finish Friday's session at 143 and change.
AMEX:MJ
by NaughtyPines
1
THE WEEK AHEAD: KBH, DAL, ICLN, SLV, EWZ, KRE, XLE, IWM/RUTEARNINGS: There aren't a ton of earnings next week. Some financials are announcing, but I generally don't play those a ton for volatility contraction, since they never really frisk up that much, and all are below 50% 30-day implied here. KBH provides the best bang for your buck with the implied metrics I'm generally looking for (>50%), followed by DAL. Both, however, are at the low end of their 52-week range, in part due to the massive vol spike we experienced in March, which will make that metric somewhat misleading here. KBH (18/56/14.5%),* Tuesday after market close. DAL (7/53/12.9%), Wednesday before market open. C (17/44/9.8%), Friday before market open. JPM (14/32/7.8%), Friday before market open. WFC (22/44/10.6%), Friday before market open. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE THE FEBRUARY 19TH AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: ICLN (14/79/20.0%) SLV (31/48/11.3%) EWZ (16/44/10.6%) XLE (22/41/10.2%) KRE (17/42/9.9%) BROAD MARKET: Pictured here is an IWM short put out in March at the strike paying at least 1% of the strike in credit. An IRA trade, I would look to roll up intraexpiry to lock in realized gain with >45 days 'til expiry, take profit on approaching worthless (<.20), and sell call against if assigned. Currently 67 days 'til expiry, it is understandably a bit long in duration, but I already have some on in the February monthly. IWM (26/34/7.6%) QQQ (21/31/6.9%) DIA (14/24/5.2%) SPY (11/24/5.0%) EFA (14/21/4.7%) * -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where implied is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks); the second, the 30-day implied volatility; and the third, what the at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of the stock price.
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines
2
THE WEEK AHEAD: BBBY, MU EARNINGS; ICLN, SLV, XLE, IWM/RUTEARNINGS: I've culled down all of next week's earnings announcements to options highly liquid underlyings where the 30-day is >50% and am left with two potential candidates for volatility contraction plays: BBBY (23/99/26.3%)* and MU (23/53/14.0%). BBBY announces on Thursday before market open, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesdays session; MU, announces on Thursday after market close. Pictured here is a delta neutral short strangle in the February cycle (49 days), which was paying 1.27 at the mid price as of Friday close with break evens wide of two times the expected move on the call side and slightly above the 2x on the put and delta/theta of -1.07/3.12. Naturally, you can see the call side skew here, with the similarly-delta'd short put 3.76 away from current price, but the call 7.24 away, so the underlying may merit a look at alternative plays that take advantage of this. In contrast, the shorter duration January 15th 15/22.5 (14 days) was paying 1.02, with delta/theta metrics of .21/7.91, with the natural trade-off's being less room to be wrong, but a quicker resolution of the trade should you be right. With MU, I'd look at a Plain Jane 2x expected move short strangle, which here would be the January 15th 68.5/85, paying 1.71 or the February 19th 62.5/90, paying 2.30. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE THE FEBRUARY 19TH AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: ICLN (9/51/15.0%) SLV (33/48/13.6%) XLE (23/41/11.4%) XBI (27/39/11.2%) EWZ (14/39/11.1%) GDX (15/38/11.1%) XME (14/38/10.7%) BROAD MARKET: IWM (25/31/8.1%) QQQ (19/27/7.1%) SPY (15/22/5.4%) EFA (20/21/5.2%) BOND FUNDS: TLT (16/18/4.4%) (Yield: 1.609%) HYG (7/13/2.0%) (Yield: 4.917%) EMB (4/7/2.0%) (Yield: 4.024%) AGG (28/8/1.7%) (Yield: 2.252%) * -- The first number is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where 30-day implied is relative to where it's been over the last 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied; and the third, what the February 19th at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of stock price.
NASDAQ:BBBY
by NaughtyPines
2
The Green decade has begun [ETF trades setup ICLN/SPY]A detailed analysis on the subject of the expected green revolution in this decade. I won't dwell into the chart technicals' instead I will focus my attention on the fundamentals, in three key bullet points: A) Firstly, I chose ICLN since it's by far the largest by volume and assets, green ETF. Interestingly it has had quite an abysmal performance relative to SPY for the past decade, as well as an appallingly negative Sharpe. Since 2018, it's performance has picked up and relatively stabilized wrt the SPX. Despite of the negative dividend yield carry of about -1%, ICLN (0.62%) vs SPY(1.59%), it's negligible compared to the price appreciation component of these ETFs. Moreover, it seems that the pandemic has been a positive catalyst overall, since it increased the odds of Biden winning the U.S. elections, and we all know the Democrats stance on environmental policy as compared to Trumps non-existent one. The Biden-Harris odds realized last week, which was followed by a bull-run. Considering the current pace of the momentum channel, ICLN is undoubtedly in a parabolic formation. B) Another indication, is the price appreciation of precious metals used in production of sustainable energy products, such as lithium, palladium, nickel to name a few. Relative to gold, these metals generally have a positive market beta since their demand is largely influenced by economic growth, especially from some of the developing countries in the past decade(India, Indonesia, China etc). Palladium: Lithium ETF : Nickel: Essentially, the price appreciation of these metals certainly is an indication of the growing demand, and therein the growth potential of the whole renewables sector, also an indication of the ecologically friendly premium corporates and governments are willing to pay. Naturally, if the cost of inputs becomes too high, implying a demand gap, but also lack of supply as it becomes more difficult to extract these metals, which in fact might produce more pollutants than the gain from utilizing these metals in developing sustainable products. However, it seems that this discussion so far is not in the news headlines, so therefore the current trend isn't threatened for now. C) It is important to distinguish between the types of market participants wrt to their portfolio preferences, biases and why they are willing to pay for an ecological and/or CSR premiums. The general consensus is that CSR investments lately have outperformed sin stocks on a relative basis. One of the explanation is CSR branding, and the idea that consumers will pay a premium to be associated with such a brand, therefore the stocks that score highly on the ESG scale, are simply better investments despite their high multiples. ESG/SPY: I think in general, it boils down to three types of market participants in ESG assets: 1. Investors that genuinely care for the environment, and are extremely elastic in terms of the ESG premiums they pay. 2. Investors that are seeking "warm glow", i.e own these assets for the sake of feeling better about their choices. In this group I'd add investors that hold these assets for their reputational benefits. 3. Traders looking to profit off the current momentum channel, without any views on the environmental issues that we're facing. In summary, it's clear that the sector principally benefits from governmental subsidies/investments, which is perhaps the only way to deal with this issue. With the Biden/Harris catalyst, as well as increase awareness of the emerging economics, specifically the example of the Chinese governments' willingness to transition their infrastructure investments more and more into renewables, the renewables sector is expected to boom for at least the entire decade. One could say that we're looking at the start of the next bubble- "The Green Bubble". Parallels can be drawn to the Japanese bubble of the early 90's, and the tech bubble of the 2000's. However, since this is governmentally induced sector growth, it is also a permanent price shock that will be sustained by governments green infrastructure investments. This is it for the upcoming green revolution. -Step_ahead_ofthemarket ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well-informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details , every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated! Disclosure : This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
NASDAQ:ICLNLong
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
5