EUR/USD at a Crossroads: Will the Bears Strike Back from 1.14? 📍1. TECHNICAL CONTEXT
EUR/USD is trading around 1.1405, inside an ascending channel and right within a supply zone (1.1370–1.1470), which already triggered a rejection on April 16. Price action currently shows hesitation, with three consecutive candles at the top of the channel and RSI divergence, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum after an overextension.
The bullish trendline from April remains intact and validated, but the upside is narrowing. Likely scenario: bullish exhaustion followed by a pullback towards 1.1270–1.1220, with a potential retest of both the trendline and the lower boundary of the channel.
📊2. COT REPORT (USD & EUR) – Updated to May 20
USD Index: Non-Commercials added +2,044 net longs, but also +1,975 new shorts. Open Interest rose by +2,207 → a more active market, but still mixed. Net exposure remains neutral to slightly bearish for the dollar.
EURO FX: Non-Commercials cut -3,587 longs and added +6,814 shorts, while Commercials increased longs by +16,796. Speculative funds are gradually shifting short on the Euro, while Commercials continue to hedge long.
→ Combined read: Large speculators are reducing their Euro exposure and staying cautious on the Dollar. Short-term pressure on EUR/USD remains bearish, though no macro reversal yet.
📉3. SENTIMENT & POSITIONING
Retail sentiment shows 71% of traders are short EUR/USD — a classically contrarian signal. However, price is now sitting in a liquidity cluster where smart money might exploit a final squeeze before a real reversal.
Market depth shows strong imbalance, with long orders stacked above current price — suggesting potential stop hunt already triggered or about to fade.
🧭4. SEASONALITY
Historically, May is a bearish month for EUR/USD: -0.0079 on 20-year average, and -0.0163 on 10-year average. Seasonality supports late May weakness and potential downside continuation into early June.
✅ TRADING OUTLOOK
📌 Primary Bias: short-term corrective bearish, waiting for clearer reversal signals.
📌 Key Reaction Zone: 1.1400–1.1470 → structural short area, already tested.
📌 Bearish Target: 1.1270 > 1.1210 (golden pocket + trendline confluence)
📌 Setup invalidation: daily close above 1.1470 with volume → possible extension to 1.1550/1.1580
📌 Macro support: Commercials remain long on the Euro → underlying structure still bullish, but too early to fade short-term bearish momentum.
Ict
USD/JPY Breakdown: Is 140 the Next Target? Smart Money Says Yes!USD/JPY is currently in a highly interesting technical and macro phase, characterized by divergences between price action and institutional positioning, negative seasonal signals, and retail sentiment that goes against what would typically be expected in a reversal scenario. Let’s break it down:
1. Institutional Positioning (COT Report)
The COT data reveals a mixed picture with bearish implications for USD/JPY:
On the USD side, non-commercial traders continue to increase their net long exposure (+2,044 new long contracts this week). However, this rise is almost equally offset by +1,975 new shorts, indicating indecision and hedging activity.
For the Japanese Yen, non-commercials (speculators) are significantly rebuilding long JPY positions, while commercials have started covering their short exposure.
📌 Implication: The net flow favors the Yen, meaning bearish pressure on USD/JPY. The increase in JPY long positions reflects expectations of a stronger Yen in the short to medium term.
2. Historical Seasonality
Seasonal data reinforces the bearish bias:
In May and June, USD/JPY has historically posted negative returns.
The 5-year average shows -0.57 in May and -0.76 in June, with both the 2Y and 10Y averages confirming a similar downward seasonal pattern.
📌 Implication: The current seasonal window does not favor a USD rebound vs. the Yen. Historically, the likelihood of downside increases into early summer.
3. Retail Sentiment
Retail traders are heavily long, with 64% positioned long on USD/JPY versus 36% short.
📌 Implication: From a contrarian perspective, this is a bearish signal. Markets tend to move against retail positioning, adding further downside risk.
4. Price Action & Technical Structure (Daily Chart)
On the weekly chart:
Price broke the key 144.00 support decisively, closing the week at 142.81.
Structure shows lower highs and lower lows, typical of a bearish trend.
RSI is falling but still above oversold levels, leaving room for further downside.
First demand zone: 141.50–142.20. A confirmed break could open the way to 140.00–139.80.
Key resistance on any pullback: 145.00–146.00.
📌 Implication: The confirmed break of support activated a bearish continuation setup, unless short-term bounces offer new sell opportunities near resistance.
5. Market Depth
Market depth shows a strong cluster of long orders above current levels, while short volumes appear fragmented. This suggests any short-term rally could face aggressive selling between 144.50–145.50.
🎯 Conclusion & Operational Outlook
The overall context points to a high probability of further downside in USD/JPY over the short to medium term:
Smart money is rotating toward the Yen.
Seasonal patterns historically support a drop in May–June.
Contrarian retail sentiment adds additional bearish weight.
The weekly chart confirms a break of structure, opening space below 141.50.
DXY: Move Down Expected! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 98.579 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 98.459 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD: Will Go Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 1.13787 Therefore, a strong bullish reaction here could determine the next move up.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 1.13975.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
GOLD: Local Bearish Bias! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 3,339.22 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD - SHORT PREDICTION - MONDAY, 26TH MAY 2025A pullback appears to be underway, following a sweep of inducement around the 15-minute level at 1.13900—marking our first significant Change of Character (CHoCH). This shift aligns with the broader narrative from the 1-hour timeframe, suggesting the potential for a deeper retracement into the extreme 1H order block.
With the current price trading around 1.13777, we anticipate a move back up to the 1.14078 level. This area is of interest for initiating short positions, in line with the ongoing correction.
Our first take-profit target is set at 1.13368, where we expect an initial reaction. Should bearish momentum continue, we foresee price extending lower to sweep the previous daily low at 1.12771 and potentially tapping into the daily external order block at 1.12664.
From there, we’ll closely monitor price behavior. If bullish intent begins to form, we’ll assess the potential for long setups targeting a move back toward the weekly high at 1.14190.
SILVER: Strong Growth Ahead! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 33.383 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 33.469.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
USD-CHF Free Signal! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USD-CHF is once again
Retesting a horizontal support
Level around 0.8189 and the
Pair seems to have formed
A H&S pattern, so we are bearish
Biased, however, a local bullish
Rebound from the support
Is possible so while risky
A long trade still makes sense
With the Take Profit of 0.8238
And the Stop Loss of 0.8184
Buy!
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EURUSD Weekly PerspectiveOn ICT Cycles, Maybe EUR Can Go Higher To Buyside Equals..
But it needs confirmation from the shorter-term views and confirmation from the dollar index.
Over time, this idea will be updated according to the coming days.
CPI profile was able to make a good climb and probably provides a fairly good confirmation for the continuation of the upward trend.
Have a good week and trades.
BTCUSD: Strong Bullish Sentiment! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse BTCUSD together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding above a key level of 107,147.58 So a bullish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next high. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD: Strong Bearish Sentiment! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 1.13300 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 1.13052 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
GOLD: Bulls Are Winning! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding above a key level of 3,292.52 So a bullish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next high. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
US30: Next Move Is Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse US30 together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 42,126.0 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 42,199.7.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
SILVER: Target Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 33.092 Therefore, a strong bearish reaction here could determine the next move down.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 32.856.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
AUD_NZD SUPPORT AHEAD|LONG|
✅AUD_NZD is going down now
But a strong support level is ahead at 1.0780
Thus I am expecting a rebound
And a move up towards the target at 1.0827
LONG🚀
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EUR_CAD RISKY LONG|
✅EUR_CAD is going down to retest
A horizontal support of 1.5570
Which makes me locally bullish biased
And I think that we will see a rebound
And a move up from the level
Towards the target above at 1.5630
LONG🚀
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ETHUSD: The Market Is Looking Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse ETHUSD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 2,202.5 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 2,489.5 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Nasdaq and Indexes Week 22 BiasWhile the Indexes maitain a Bullish perspective on Weekly right now, I would not dare to anticipate next week "Flavour" but rather wait for The New Week Opening and if necessary till FOMC Minutes on Wednesday.
I would like to see immediate rejection from where price it's right now (allowing it to reach the IFVG starting at 20,690.00) to maintain a bullish bias rather then a deeper retrace, otherwise Bias may change on a Daily basis and pause that Weekly View for a later time .
Cocoa Explosion Loading? Specs & Hedgers Agree🔍 Fundamental Analysis – Commitment of Traders (COT)
The latest COT report, dated May 13, 2025, reveals a strong bullish accumulation signal, with a significant increase in long positions across all major trader categories.
Specifically, Non-Commercials (speculative traders such as hedge funds and money managers) increased their long positions by +3,490 contracts while simultaneously reducing shorts by -467 contracts. This dynamic reflects renewed speculative confidence in the cocoa bullish trend.
Simultaneously, Commercials (typically producers and processors) added +5,187 long contracts and closed -661 short contracts. This is especially noteworthy, as commercials usually take the opposite side of speculators. Here, however, their alignment with speculators may indicate expectations of upcoming supply constraints or market stress.
Total open interest rose by more than +6,000 contracts, suggesting real capital inflow into the market rather than just rebalancing.
This alignment between speculators and institutional hedgers is rare and often precedes further price appreciation.
📈 Net Positions & Price Action
Looking at the “Net Positions & Prices” chart over the past year, it’s clear that Non-Commercial net positions are recovering after a notable drop in March and April. This reversal aligns with the technical bottom and the start of the current price rally.
Commercials, although still net short (in line with their historical bias), are reducing their bearish exposure, hinting at lower physical supply pressure or a need for hedging against further price increases.
Price action has reflected this narrative, surging higher following the April lows.
🕰️ Seasonal Analysis
Seasonality adds another layer to the analysis.
Historically, May tends to be flat or slightly bearish (10Y and 15Y averages), but the 2-Year seasonal line—which better reflects current market behavior—shows a strong bullish tendency starting mid-month. This supports the ongoing rebound and increases the likelihood of further upside in the short term.
Historical data also shows that June, while volatile, is often positive or neutral in shorter cycles.
📊 Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, cocoa recently completed a strong bullish leg, rebounding from the 8,800–9,000 USD demand zone, identified as a clear area of institutional buying (evident through volume and impulsive candles).
The price then decisively broke through mid-range resistance levels and tested a key weekly supply zone between 11,200 and 11,500 USD, where it was initially rejected.
Currently, we are in a technical pullback, likely targeting the mitigation zone at 9,700–10,000 USD. This area represents a solid long entry opportunity if the market confirms a bullish structure on intraday charts (H1 or H4).
The RSI is near overbought, yet without divergence—suggesting the trend remains structurally bullish despite a natural correction.
🧭 Strategic Conclusion
Cocoa currently shows a rare convergence of bullish signals: supportive COT positioning, increasing net long interest, strong 2Y seasonality, and clear technical structure controlled by buyers.
However, after the recent sharp upside move, a correction to key support zones is likely before another bullish leg unfolds.