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EURUSD - Waiting for the Breakdown After 4H SweepEURUSD has just completed a sweep of the 4H highs, tagging liquidity resting above the consolidation range. That move looks like a classic inducement, with price now reacting lower and showing signs of weakness. This type of sweep, especially when it happens inside a range, often leads to a reversal back through the range, provided the internal low breaks cleanly. Right now, price is still hovering above that key point, but we can see signs of slowing momentum already. Liquidity Context and Sweep Logic This recent push above the highs fits well within ICT-style logic: a sweep of internal range liquidity that serves to fuel the opposite move. The chart shows a textbook example of a consolidation phase being manipulated to the upside first, where buy stops get triggered and liquidity is taken. The real move tends to unfold after that, once we get confirmation through structure breaks and displacement to the downside. Structure Break and Bearish Confirmation The internal low within the range is acting as a key trigger level. A clean break below that would serve as confirmation of a bearish market structure shift. That’s the point where the market goes from internal liquidity hunt to actual displacement. If that low gives way, the probability of continuation lower increases significantly, and that’s where I’ll be expecting price to seek the next pocket of liquidity. Support and Key Area of Interest There’s also a well-respected support level not too far below, one that price has bounced from several times. That area could either act as a temporary reaction zone or, if broken impulsively, could open the path toward deeper inefficiencies. Ideally, I want to see price break below both the internal low and this support area, then continue toward my next level of interest where I expect either a reaction or a higher probability setup to form. Conclusion For now, this setup is a waiting game. The liquidity has been swept on the upside, and now it’s all about whether the structure confirms to the downside. I’m not interested in chasing the first move. What I want to see is displacement below the internal low and support level, followed by continuation or a clean reaction from the next zone of interest. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
Short
by TehThomas
50
DXY Monthly Analysis | Smart Money Concept + CHoCH BreakdownPair: US Dollar Index (DXY) Timeframe: 1M (Monthly) Strategy: Smart Money Concept (SMC) + Market Structure + Demand/Supply Zones Bias: Bearish (Mid to Long-Term) Breakdown: Price reacted strongly from the monthly supply zone (110–104), showing signs of exhaustion. Clear CHoCH (Change of Character) visible at the top structure, confirming loss of bullish intent. Internal structure printed a liquidity sweep + FVG (Fair Value Gap) ➝ BOS ➝ lower low. Current PA (price action) is targeting the first demand zone near 92–94, but major interest lies at the macro demand zone (85.100–84.900). This level aligns with unmitigated historical demand and potential long-term accumulation range. --- 📅 Projection: Expecting a continuation to the downside after retesting minor imbalance zones. Potential multi-year bearish leg forming Wave 3 (macro view). Ideal accumulation/buy zone: 85.100–84.900 – if structure supports. --- 📌 Key Levels to Watch: Supply Zone: 110.800 – 104.600 CHoCH Level: ~102.300 Short-Term Demand: 92.000 – 94.000 Long-Term Demand (Institutional Interest): 85.100 – 84.900 --- 💡 Conclusion: Smart Money has exited from premium pricing, and the macro structure aligns with a bearish transition. As long as price respects current lower highs, we may see a deeper correction or possible trend reversal near 85 levels. --- 🧠 #DXY #SmartMoney #CHoCH #ForexAnalysis #SupplyAndDemand #PriceAction #Forex #Month
TVC:DXY
by Greenfireforex
Nasdaq Potential Daily ReversalIPDA Speaking + Contract closure we can see speed take place to reach BSL outside IPDA range but why whould the just past 20 days HRLR instead of moving higher with speed Because of Intermarket striction maybe to build more stops there but it would be greater in terms of liquidity efficiency to place a fake D high in here and reverse, take the liquidity lower on D HRLR and then continue higher to reach 22,672.00. The key here is: do we breach above the D SIBI or do we react from it. one of two will unlock the next 20 to 40 trading days of delivery.
CME_MINI:NQM2025
by AlessandroGiust
US30: The Market Is Looking Down! Short! My dear friends, Today we will analyse US30 together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 42,877.4 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 42,798.2..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by FreeXauusdSignals
1
Bitcoin - Bulls in Control: Aiming For $110kBitcoin has just confirmed a strong bullish breakout after consolidating beneath a prior fair value gap. The market not only broke out of that zone cleanly but did so with conviction, creating a new inversion fair value gap (IFVG) along the way. This type of structure often indicates a shift in sentiment, especially when paired with increasing volume and impulsive candles. Fair Value Gap Break and Continuation Context Following the breakout, price surged straight through another 4H FVG overhead, flipping it with strength and no hesitation. That kind of move shows clear intent. The market didn't pause or stall at resistance, which increases the probability that the same pattern could play out again, clean break, shallow pullback, and continuation. The breakout level now holds as short-term support. Near-Term Expectations – FVG Fill Before Higher With this latest 4H candle close, I’m now expecting a short pullback to fill the newly created 4H FVG below. This would provide the market with the fuel it needs to continue higher without leaving inefficient price action behind. The structure is setting up a classic breakout-fill-continue sequence, and the next key objective sits just below a clear resistance zone overhead. Conclusion Bitcoin broke out of a compression zone, formed an IFVG, and followed up with a strong push through the next fair value gap. I’m expecting a controlled retracement to fill the new 4H imbalance, after which price could continue pushing toward the major resistance area. The momentum is clean and structured—until that changes, continuation remains the more likely path. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
Long
by TehThomas
53
Bitcoin is Super Bullish Right Now - Here is my BTC trade planSince Bitcoin is super bullish on monthly and weekly time frame, my focus is to trade trend continuation pull backs on the 4HR time frame. For this particular trade, I want to see a pull back to a key level of either imbalance or the old high serving as new support for price. I will be taking a bullish trend continuation setup on that 4HR pull back. Target: I expect to see Bitcoin break that all time high of 111k level and go as high as 150k per one.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Elijahenoch7
EURJPY Bulls in Trouble? Massive Rejection Signals📉 Full Multi-Factor Analysis – EUR/JPY 🔍 1. Price Action EUR/JPY strongly rejected the key supply zone between 164.80–165.50, aligned with a major static resistance. Last week's breakout was invalidated by a clear bull trap, followed by a bearish engulfing candle. Price broke below the ascending channel drawn since April and is now heading toward the 162.00 demand area. The weekly RSI shows a bearish divergence, confirming a slowdown in momentum. ➡️ Technical Bias: Bearish toward 161.50–162.00, with a possible extension to 160.00. 💼 2. COT Data – Commitment of Traders EUR Futures (CME) Strong increase in commercial longs (+16,095) and non-commercial shorts (+4,830). Suggests smart money is accumulating while retail/speculators are pressing shorts — potential accumulation, but no breakout yet. JPY Futures Significant rise in non-commercial shorts (+10,575), while long positions declined. The yen remains pressured, but extreme positioning could fuel a reversal if sentiment flips. ➡️ COT Takeaway: Euro remains in bullish consolidation. Yen is heavily oversold — ripe for mean reversion. Caution warranted. 📊 3. Retail Sentiment 80% of retail traders are short from an average price of 160.46, while price now sits at 164.86. The crowd is deep in drawdown — a typical condition for short-term consolidations or fakeouts before reversals. ➡️ Implication: Price may hover around 164+ to trap remaining retail shorts before unwinding. 📈 4. Seasonality June seasonality for EUR/JPY is historically neutral to bearish. Only the 5-year data shows strength, while 15Y and 20Y trends reveal consistent downside starting mid-June. ➡️ Seasonal Outlook: Adds further weight to a bearish correction scenario for the second half of the month. ✅ Actionable Summary 📌 Weekly Bias: Bearish 📉 Main Target: 162.00–161.50 📉 Extended Target: 160.00 📈 Invalidation: Weekly close above 165.60 🧠 Final Thoughts All major elements — price action, COT, sentiment, and seasonality — point toward a corrective move on EUR/JPY. Given the strong underlying trend and retail’s positioning, watch out for bull traps before deeper downside. Best setup: Sell the pullback or wait for clean breakdown below 163.00.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
10