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EURUSD: Pullback before the crash!The EUR/USD continues its downward trend, recently touching a new cycle low around 1.0176 as the US Dollar maintains its relentless rally, fueled by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for an extended period. The Greenback’s strength has been amplified by a fifth consecutive bullish session, with the DXY surpassing the critical 110.00 level. Investors have sharply revised their outlook on Fed policy, reducing the probability of significant rate cuts in the near term. This shift in sentiment follows a robust Nonfarm Payrolls report and hawkish remarks from Fed officials, emphasizing the priority of taming inflation before contemplating further easing. On the policy front, while the Fed recently trimmed its benchmark rate to 4.25%-4.50%, Chair Powell’s cautious tone during the final press conference of 2024 left markets in little doubt that any future rate cuts will be gradual. Powell underscored the need to anchor inflation closer to the 2% target and pointed out that despite some softening, the labor market remains resilient. This narrative has bolstered USD demand and widened the divergence with the European Central Bank’s stance. In contrast, the ECB faces mounting pressure to sustain its easing cycle amid a deteriorating economic outlook across the eurozone, particularly in Germany, where industrial performance has been lackluster. Despite a marginal rise in inflation figures for December, ECB policymakers seem committed to prioritizing growth over inflation control in the short term. This divergence in central bank policies has created a headwind for the euro, further weakening EUR/USD and increasing the likelihood of a test of parity. Adding to the complexity, potential trade policy shifts under the incoming US administration could inject additional volatility. Proposals for renewed tariffs could stoke inflationary pressures in the US, compelling the Fed to adopt a more aggressive tightening stance. Such a scenario would exacerbate the euro’s struggles, as a stronger USD and continued ECB easing would widen the interest rate differential between the two economies. Looking ahead, the focus will remain on key data releases, including US CPI and Retail Sales, alongside eurozone Industrial Production and German inflation data. These reports will offer crucial insights into the respective economic trajectories and may set the tone for future price action. However, in the current context, the EUR/USD appears poised to remain under pressure as the fundamental backdrop heavily favors the Greenback. Until there is a significant shift in economic or policy expectations, the pair may continue its march towards parity.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
NAS100USD: Are We Witnessing the Start of a Bullish Takeover?Greetings Traders! In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, the overall trend remains bearish; however, compelling signs suggest a potential shift toward bullish price action. Here are the key confluences supporting this outlook: Key Observations: 1. Higher Highs Established: Recent price action has formed higher highs, indicating a potential shift from breaking bearish structure to targeting bullish objectives. 2. Transition to Buy-Side Curve: Significant structural breaks suggest a move away from the sell-side curve into the buy-side curve. This transition redefines key bullish order blocks created during the sell-side curve as reclaimed order blocks, now acting as strong institutional support zones. Reclaimed Order Blocks Explained: These occur when bullish order blocks, previously hedged during sell-side curve are reclaimed by institutions. The down candles within these zones signal areas where institutions are likely to initiate new buying opportunities. Trading Strategy: Entry Zones: Look for buying opportunities within reclaimed order blocks, which now function as robust institutional support zones. Targets: Focus on liquidity pools located at key highs, double tops, or failure swings. These areas serve as institutional profit-taking zones where buy stops reside, offering favorable order pairing opportunities. By aligning with institutional behavior and following the transition to the buy-side curve, we can strategically capitalize on potential bullish momentum. Stay vigilant and await confirmation before entering trades. Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by The_Archi-tect
CADCHF Technical Analysis! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for CADCHF below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 0.6285 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators : Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 0.6310 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
Bearish move coming up for XAUUSD?Daily timeframe: Price is currently trading around 2689, with price action hovering around our HTF OTE zone (2685-2696.4). H4 Timeframe: Price is currently trading within our H4 ascending channel and has met with our H4 SnR zone + at the resistance trend line. I would expect a minor push up before a nice breakout sell soon, this is also supported with DXY’s price actions as I would expect DXY to retrace a little to an area of discount before pushing up higher. Furthermore, fundamental news thus far puts the US Market in a good condition for more growth, and hence, putting technical and fundamental analysis together, I would expect a correction for XAUUSD in the following days/weeks. Stay tuned!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by joashpty
Bearish move coming up for XAUUSD?Daily timeframe: Price is currently trading around 2689, with price action hovering around our HTF OTE zone (2685-2696.4). H4 Timeframe: Price is currently trading within our H4 ascending channel and has met with our H4 SnR zone + at the resistance trend line. I would expect a minor push up before a nice breakout sell soon, this is also supported with DXY’s price actions as I would expect DXY to retrace a little to an area of discount before pushing up higher. Furthermore, fundamental news thus far puts the US Market in a good condition for more growth, and hence, putting technical and fundamental analysis together, I would expect a correction for XAUUSD in the following days/weeks. Stay tuned!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by joashpty
$GOLD & $SILVER BullishGold and silver on the monthly chart exhibited SMT and mitigation of a PDA in the discounted region, signaling a potential MMBM, which was later confirmed on the daily chart. As a result, we maintain a bullish bias for these assets, considering they may be targeting the external liquidity of the monthly chart as the final objective. However, it is worth noting that the price might correct beforehand, returning to the discount region on the daily chart to seek internal liquidity and build momentum to reach the monthly chart's final liquidity target.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Pilucax
$NQ & ES BearishThe NQ and ES on the monthly chart showed signs of rejection, indicating a possible correction toward a PDA located in the discounted region of this timeframe. Consequently, on the daily chart, there was a shift in the price delivery state, now seeking this liquidity as well as the daily sell sides. We maintain a bearish outlook for the assets, but it is important to note that the price may correct toward the premium region of the daily chart, seeking new liquidity to build momentum and ultimately reach the monthly chart objective: a more pronounced drop.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Pilucax