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S&P500: Rebound or Bull Trap?Over the past week, the S&P500 weekly chart showed a key technical signal: the formation of a bullish engulfing. This pattern emerged after several weeks of strong monthly bearish pressure, suggesting a potential reversal attempt or, at the very least, a technical rebound. Analyzing the key levels, the price reacted inside a major demand area (visible on the monthly timeframe), positioned between 5,450 and 5,500 points. The reaction from this zone reinforces the validity of the engulfing and suggests the market could now aim for the first resistance targets around 5,600 - 5,650. Further upside targets are located at 5,837 and 6,023, previously marked as high-confluence zones. From an institutional positioning perspective, the latest COT Report (April 22, 2025) reveals interesting developments: Commercials (big players) increased their long contracts by +22,226 units, showing strong interest in upside protection. Non-Commercials (speculators) also increased their longs (+8,754), but added even more to their shorts (+20,667). The Net Positioning for Non-Commercials remains negative but has stabilized at less extreme levels compared to March, suggesting a possible phase of accumulation or preparation for a sentiment shift. 📊 The Net Positions chart shows a reduction in net short pressure — a warning sign for those still heavily short. Summary: The weekly engulfing is a technical signal not to underestimate. We are trading within a strong monthly demand zone. COT data suggests a decrease in bearish pressure, although not yet a full sentiment reversal. However, caution is necessary: a firm break below 5,450 would invalidate the bullish signal and reopen the path toward corrections at 5,200 and 5,000. Current Strategy: Slight bullish bias above 5,500. Short-term target: 5,600 → 5,650. Next targets: 5,837 and 6,023. Invalidation level: weekly close below 5,450. Watching the price action around key resistance levels will be crucial: the market will decide whether this rebound consolidates or becomes just a trap for new buyers.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
XAUUSD Play: Buy the Dip, Sell the Rip Gold (XAUUSD) Tactical Play: Intraday Long into 4H Premium, Then Position for Higher Timeframe Short Higher Timeframe (4H + Daily Context) : 1. Daily Chart Bias : Long-term bullish trend, but now expecting a mean reversion (correction) toward long-term averages (discount area). 2. Current Behaviour : Price has aggressively rallied over the past weeks, but now it's likely moving into a larger correction phase. 3. 4H Structure : - 4H Demand Zone (around 3,250–3,300) is still holding — price showed strong reactions after tapping it. - 4H overall flow shifted bearish after a BOS, but internal structure inside 4H suggests a pullback toward premium levels. Key Supply Zones Above: • First Supply : 3,380.962 (4H + 15M alignment) • Second Supply : 3,410.365 (strong 4H supply) Internal Structure (15M) : Current Observations: 1. 15M structure showed a CHoCH to the upside after tapping into the 4H demand — clear internal strength. 2. Entry zone marked in 15M purple zone (small demand refinement). Expectation: Price will retrace a little, tap the 15M purple zone, then push upward toward higher liquidity pools. Targets for the Long Trade: • First TP : The recent liquidity highs around 3,380.962 (first 4H supply). • Second TP : 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG) closer to 3,410.365. Thanks for your Time..
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Naren_2410
ETHUSD: Strong Growth Ahead! Long! My dear friends, Today we will analyse ETHUSD together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 1.800.9 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 1.828.4.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by FreeXauusdSignals
1
BTC - Golden Pocket Confluence + FVG Sweep = Long SetupA highly refined scenario blending Fibonacci confluence with liquidity principles, setting up a controlled bullish play. --- 1. Golden Pocket + FVG Confluence — Critical Demand Zone The blue highlighted area represents a strong confluence: - FVG (Fair Value Gap): Imbalance left by aggressive price movement, likely to attract price for rebalancing. - Golden Pocket: The 0.618–0.65 Fibonacci retracement zone, statistically favored for deep retracements and high-probability reversals. Expecting strong buying interest once price taps into this confluence. --- 2. 0.618-0.65 Fib Range — Key Reversal Territory The Fibonacci zone offers the perfect environment for engineered liquidity sweeps and smart money accumulation. - This range often acts as a trap for retail shorts while institutions accumulate. - A clean entry opportunity arises as price dips into this critical golden zone before expansion. --- 3. FVG Resistance Above — Initial Reaction Zone A notable FVG resistance area is marked around 94,400–94,500: - Upon reaching this zone, price may face initial selling pressure or short-term consolidation. - Observing how price interacts here can further confirm bullish strength and continuation. --- 4. Smart Money Liquidity Play The setup suggests a classic liquidity engineering move: - Induce shorts through a pullback into the Golden Pocket. - Absorb liquidity inside the FVG. - Trigger a sharp bullish reversal aligned with institutional footprints. This layered setup is clean, logical, and methodical. --- 5. Projected Price Flow Anticipated price action structure: - Step 1: Dip into the Golden Pocket + FVG demand zone. - Step 2: Reversal toward the FVG resistance. - Step 3: Breakout continuation upon reclaiming resistance, leading to further bullish expansion. Each leg is mapped to follow high-probability liquidity behavior. --- 6. Summary: - Golden Pocket + FVG = Prime Reversal Confluence - Efficient Liquidity Sweep Mechanics - Structured Bullish Progression Based on Smart Money Concepts This plan is framed to capitalize on precision entries and liquidity dynamics without chasing price.
Long
by Louigi_24
61
USOIL: Bears Are Winning! Short! My dear friends, Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 63.133 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 62.366..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
FX:USOILShort
by FreeXauusdSignals
1