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CADCHF at the Cliff's Edge – Is a Breakdown Imminent? 🧭 Technical Context Price is currently sitting at the key support area of 0.5890–0.5900, tested multiple times since April. This week’s candlestick shows a clear close below the intermediate micro-structure (two consecutive closes under recent lows), confirming bearish pressure. The weekly RSI remains in a neutral-to-low zone, trending downwards with no active bullish divergence. 📉 Technical Conclusion: Active bearish bias. Watch out for potential false breaks below 0.5890 as liquidity traps. 📊 COT Report – as of June 17, 2025 🇨🇦 CAD Non-Commercials: added +8.5k long contracts, aggressively cut −18.3k shorts → Excessive optimism, potential exhaustion on the buy-side Commercials: added +31k shorts → Typical hedge behavior – signaling protection from CAD devaluation 🇨🇭CHF Net positions in gradual decline with no sharp moves → CHF remains in consolidation, with a defensive tone Open Interest dropped by −19.5k → Institutional money exiting positions → Interpretation: Market likely preparing for a directional breakout, CHF could act as a safe haven 📉 COT Conclusion: CAD appears overbought, CHF still gathering strength. Bearish bias on CADCHF remains intact. 📅 Seasonality – June Pattern CHF tends to strengthen in June: +0.0095 (10Y average), +0.0068 (5Y average) CAD shows structural weakness in June: −0.0027 (10Y), −0.0076 (5Y) 📉 Seasonality Conclusion: June favors CAD weakness and CHF strength → Bearish confirmation for CADCHF 🧠 Retail Sentiment 92% of retail traders are long CADCHF, only 8% are short → Extreme imbalance = classic contrarian signal 📉 Sentiment Conclusion: Confirms potential for continued downside on CADCHF ✅ Trade Plan Summary 📌 Base scenario: Short CADCHF if we get a daily/weekly close below 0.5890 🎯 Target 1: 0.5820 🎯 Target 2: 0.5770 🚫 Invalidation: daily close above 0.5960 (invalidates current setup) 📌 Alternative scenario: Short from 0.5960–0.6000 if we get a bearish rejection pattern → ideal for better R/R
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
SILVER: The Market Is Looking Down! Short! My dear friends, Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 35.998 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 35.727..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDShort
by FreeXauusdSignals
1
Bitcoin - Bullflag formation towards $111k?After the long and steep rally in Bitcoin that began on April 9th, the price is now entering a period of consolidation and forming a classic bullish continuation pattern known as a bull flag. This type of structure often appears after a strong impulsive move to the upside and signals that the market may be gearing up for another leg higher. Bull Flag On the daily timeframe, BTC is in the process of developing a bull flag by printing a series of lower highs and lower lows within a narrow descending channel. This pullback phase comes after a significant rally and is generally considered a healthy part of a trending market. It reflects a cooling-off period in which the market digests the prior gains while maintaining a bullish bias. This type of structure typically resolves to the upside, continuing the dominant trend. At present, BTC is approaching a key upper boundary of the flag formation, which also aligns with a prior zone of price rejection. This area could act as resistance in the short term and will likely play a crucial role in determining the next directional move. 4H Fair Value Gap Zooming in on the 4-hour chart, we can observe a clearly defined fair value gap (FVG) between the $102,700 and $103,800 levels. This imbalance was created during the sharp move up and now represents a potential area of interest for buyers. If price retraces into this zone, it could act as strong support where demand steps in, filling the imbalance and potentially triggering the next upward leg. Fair value gaps often serve as magnet zones in trending markets, and in this case, could offer a key entry point for those looking to position long within the larger bullish structure. Liquidity Levels One of the more critical areas to watch lies around the $111,000 level, where we see a double top on the lower timeframes. This region holds a significant amount of resting liquidity just above it, as evidenced by the liquidation heatmap. These clustered stop-loss orders and leveraged positions create a liquidity pool that could attract market makers and large players looking to trigger a stop run. As price approaches this level, it becomes increasingly likely that the market may spike into this liquidity before deciding on a longer-term direction. This liquidity zone acts like a magnet and is a common target for short-term wicks and fake-out moves. Expectations The current expectation is for Bitcoin to push higher toward the $111,000 level before the market makes a more definitive move. While this upside continuation seems likely in the short term, caution is warranted, especially considering the structure on higher timeframes. The weekly chart is starting to show some signs of exhaustion, with momentum slowing and potential bearish divergence forming. As such, the move to $111,000 could simply be a liquidity grab—a final push to trap breakout traders—before a deeper correction or reversal unfolds. If price does manage to break the all-time high with convincing volume and sustained follow-through, the bullish case would strengthen significantly. Until then, however, it’s important to remain cautious and recognize the risk of a fake-out at these elevated levels. Conclusion Despite the strong rally in recent weeks, Bitcoin still faces substantial resistance overhead. The $111,000 level stands out as a critical zone that could act as a magnet, drawing in price action before reversing to the downside. This area is not only technically significant but also loaded with liquidity, increasing the risk of a bull trap. Traders should remain vigilant and avoid getting caught on the wrong side of the move. Watch closely for signs of exhaustion or divergence as price approaches this level, and be prepared for potential fake-outs designed to lure in overly aggressive participants. Staying patient and waiting for confirmation remains the most prudent strategy in this environment. ------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
TRADENATION:BTCUSD
by Youriverse
20
85% of Traders Are Wrong on GBPCAD - I'm Going Short!📊 COT Analysis GBP: Non-Commercials remain net long with 106,282 longs vs 63,425 shorts. However, long positions are decreasing (-4,794) while shorts are slightly increasing (+3,983), suggesting profit-taking or a potential shift in sentiment. Commercials are strongly net short (35,707 longs vs 87,770 shorts), with a significant reduction in both longs (-24,958) and shorts (-33,457) — a clear reduction in overall exposure. → Non-Commercial positioning is still bullish, but momentum is fading. CAD: Non-Commercials remain heavily net short (28,154 longs vs 94,487 shorts), but notable changes are taking place: sharp increase in longs (+8,503) and a significant cut in shorts (-18,307), pointing to a possible reversal in sentiment. Commercials are net long with a rise in both longs (+1,834) and shorts (+31,186), indicating potential hedging as expectations shift. → CAD strength is emerging in the COT data, supporting a potential bearish move on GBPCAD. 📈 Seasonality – June/July GBP tends to perform poorly in June across all historical averages (-0.004 / -0.006). July shows slight positivity but is statistically insignificant. CAD has a mildly negative June, but July is historically its strongest month (+0.006 / +0.007 on 20Y and 15Y averages). → Seasonal bias favors CAD strength in the June–July transition. 🧠 Retail Sentiment Retail traders are 85% long on GBPCAD, a strong contrarian signal. → Such imbalance increases the odds of a correction or reversal to the downside. → Confirms short bias. 📉 Price Action & RSI Price surged into strong resistance at 1.8779 (triple top area). Current daily rejection + RSI in overbought territory suggest a potential swing high forming. Natural downside target: 1.8400–1.8450 (prior structure and base of the move). → Ideal short setup from resistance with confirmation via bearish price action.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
GOLD REVERSAL POINT [Bearish Bias]According to this analysis, today I'm expecting a sell opportunity. So here we're analyze 1H time frame, Price is currently moving near a strong order flow area, and has also SIBI is pending. If price faces clear rejection from this key levels, So there is a high probability that the market may decline from this level. Wait with patient and maintain discipline, confirmation is key. Now let's see how our sell zone plays out. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio. #GOLD 1H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal
CAD-CHF Bullish Rebound Ahead! Buy! Hello,Traders! CAD-CHF fell down sharply And the pair was oversold So we are not surprised to See a bullish rebound from The strong horizontal support Around 0.5830 level and we Think that we are likely To see a further bullish move up Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by TopTradingSignals
1
Bitcoin - Bears Take Control, Reversal Coming?After an aggressive bullish rally, Bitcoin has filled a clean 1H imbalance zone near 108K and swept short-term liquidity above recent 1H highs. The move into premium pricing saw clear signs of rejection, with a strong bearish reaction directly inside the imbalance area. This reaction confirms the area as a valid supply zone and signals that bulls may have exhausted their momentum in the short term. Liquidity Sweep and Rejection The sweep of prior highs was sharp and quick, lacking follow-through, and was immediately followed by rejection wicks and a drop in momentum. This kind of price action typically hints at engineered liquidity grabs, where smart money drives price into inefficiencies to fill orders before reversing direction. That liquidity sweep, paired with the fill of the 1H FVG, increases the probability that this high is now set in place for a short-term reversal. Key Short-Term Level to Watch The immediate level of interest lies at the most recent low before the rally, marked clearly as a potential short-term support. This low often acts as a magnet post-sweep, as price retraces to test if there’s real buyer interest left or not. If this low fails to hold, the bearish momentum could accelerate into the nearby 4H Fair Value Gap around the 102.5K–101.9K area. Fair Value Gap and Lower Target That 4H FVG has not yet been filled, and there’s also a small unmitigated imbalance sitting just above it. If price drops into this zone and still fails to show strong buyer interest, the path opens toward a more significant downside move. The final downside target sits near 98K, highlighted by a higher timeframe demand area and major structure level. This zone would only come into play if all intermediate support levels break cleanly. Bearish Roadmap Short-term, I expect a retest of the recent low, followed by a possible reaction. But if that reaction fails and momentum stays bearish, the 4H FVG fill becomes highly likely. A break below that would shift control decisively to sellers, with 98K as the next major liquidity pocket to target. This move would also clean out most of the inefficiencies left behind by the recent aggressive bullish move. Conclusion The rejection from the 1H imbalance and liquidity sweep suggest Bitcoin’s recent rally may be done for now. Until we reclaim the 1H FVG and break above recent highs with strength, the bias is bearish. If the key low breaks, I’ll be watching how price reacts inside the FVG zone. A weak reaction could open up the flush toward the 98K level for a larger liquidity draw. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
Short
by TehThomas
58
GOLD: Target Is Down! Short! My dear friends, Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 3,342.22 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 3,336.36..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by FreeXauusdSignals
3
AUDCHF at Make-or-Break Zone: Smart Money Reversal or Breakdown?1. Price Action Price is currently trading within a descending channel, with 0.5244 hovering near a key demand zone (0.5150–0.5200), where a first bullish reaction has already occurred. The structure suggests a potential fake breakdown, with room for a rebound toward static resistances at 0.5330, and possibly 0.5450. RSI is rising from oversold, showing signs of a potential bullish divergence. 📌 Technical bias: Waiting for confirmation of a reversal at key support. Upside targets: 0.5330 > 0.5450. Ideal stop-loss below 0.5160. 2. Retail Sentiment 72% of retail traders are long, with an average entry at 0.5551, now facing a 300+ pip drawdown. This increases short-term contrarian bearish pressure, but also signals liquidity above the highs, which could be targeted before a true bullish reversal. 3. Commitment of Traders (as of June 17, 2025) AUD – Bearish Massive drop in both commercial longs (-60k) and shorts (-60k) suggests broad disengagement. Non-commercials remain net short (-69k), with overall open interest declining. CHF – Neutral to Bullish CHF also sees declines in positioning, but commercial traders remain firmly net long (+51.7k). Non-commercials are net short (-25.5k). 📌 COT Conclusion: AUD remains structurally weaker than CHF, but both currencies are showing signs of positioning uncertainty. This compression phase may precede a technical rebound on AUDCHF. 4. Seasonality AUD June historically shows modest strength on 10Y and 5Y averages. However, 2Y data points to weakness → any rally may be short-lived or fragile. CHF CHF tends to be strong in June, especially on 20Y and 10Y views. Yet, short-term (2Y) data shows end-of-month weakness, suggesting possible profit-taking ahead. ✅ Operational Outlook Short-term bias: Long AUDCHF (corrective rebound) Medium/long-term bias: Bearish (still in a downtrend)
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
Bitcoin Respecting FVG Again – Is This the Launchpad to 112K+ ?Bitcoin has once again shown strong respect for a key Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the daily timeframe, tapping into a previously identified imbalance around the $98,000 region. This area had earlier acted as a base for bullish structure, and price's return to it suggests re-accumulation by smart money rather than a breakdown. The reaction was swift, rejecting off the FVG and forming a strong bullish daily candle, implying intent for higher prices. This move into the FVG also swept sell-side liquidity resting below a clear 4-hour equal low. This kind of liquidity grab is a textbook ICT-style move, used to trap retail shorts before a reversal. With that liquidity cleared and institutional interest likely engaged, the structure has shifted bullishly, creating a higher low and showing momentum building to the upside. The next major upside objective lies at $111,921, which marks short-term weekly buyside liquidity. This area represents a key magnet for price — where many stop-losses and buy-side orders are likely stacked — making it a logical destination for a move upward. The projected move offers a potential 14.6% upside over the next few weeks. If price can hold above the $106K-$108K zone, the probability increases that we’re witnessing the beginning of a broader impulsive leg toward the $112K region. However, failure to maintain bullish structure here could mean deeper accumulation is still unfolding. As always, this setup should be approached with discipline, and further confirmation should be sought using your own risk model and strategy.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by INSIDER_INTEL