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SILVER: Absolute Price Collapse Ahead! Short! My dear friends, Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 36.262 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 36.171..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDShort
by FreeXauusdSignals
1
GBP/JPY in Trouble? Smart Money Rotates Into Yen📊 1. COT Analysis JPY (Japanese Yen): Non-Commercial Net Long: +54,615 – showing strong long accumulation since March. Recent Changes: Long: -5,319 Short: +1,235 ➡️ Mixed signals short-term, but overall net long positioning remains strong. Speculative funds are still heavily favoring the Yen, suggesting potential continued strength. GBP (British Pound): Non-Commercial Net Long: +51,634 (111,076 long – 59,442 short) Recent Changes: Long: +7,404 Short: -9,015 ➡️ Specs are still net long on GBP, but exposure has slightly decreased. The divergence with the Yen is narrowing. 🔎 COT Summary: Both currencies are being bought by speculators, but the JPY has shown more consistent long-term positioning. Net momentum appears to shift in favor of Yen strength, pointing to potential downside for GBP/JPY. 📅 2. Seasonality – June Historically, June is a weak month for GBP/JPY, especially over 20y, 15y, 5y, and 2y windows. Monthly average return is negative across all major historical timeframes (e.g. -1.2415 over 10 years). ➡️ Seasonality reinforces a bearish bias for June. 🧠 3. Retail Sentiment Short: 52% Long: 48% ➡️ Retail positioning is balanced, slightly skewed short. Not a strong contrarian signal, but also doesn’t support a bullish breakout scenario. 📉 4. Technical Analysis Current Structure: Ascending channel from mid-May → currently testing lower boundary. Key Zone: 195.600–196.520 is a major supply zone with multiple rejections. Recent Candle Action: Bearish pin bar + engulfing candle → strong rejection from resistance. Downside Targets: First: 193.076 Second: 191.439 Break of the channel would further confirm a trend reversal. ➡️ Price action supports a short scenario with high reward-to-risk toward lower zones.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
CADJPY Bearish Reversal? Smart Money + Seasonal Confluence🧠 COT Sentiment Speculators are heavily net short on CAD (–93K), while maintaining a strong net long position on JPY (+144K). → This positioning clearly favors JPY strength over CAD weakness. Commercials are hedging JPY downside, but the dominant flow remains JPY bullish. 📅 Seasonal Patterns Historically, June is weak for CAD (5Y, 10Y, 15Y averages all negative). Meanwhile, JPY tends to strengthen in the second half of June. → Seasonality supports a bearish outlook on the pair. 📉 Technical Structure Price has reacted precisely to the Fibonacci 0.705 retracement (106.23) and is showing signs of RSI divergence. We are trading within a key supply zone between 106.70 and 108.30, which also aligns with a major resistance cluster and harmonic extension. First target sits at 103.88, with potential extension to 101.20 if breakdown confirms. 🛢 Macro Catalyst Oil remains under pressure. CAD retail sales dropped significantly. Risk-off sentiment (cautious Fed + geopolitical tensions) favors JPY as a safe haven. 📊 Retail Sentiment 62% of retail traders are short, but with an average entry at 108.49. → A break below 106 could trigger liquidation, fueling further downside. 🧩 Trade Setup 🔹 Entry zone: 106.70–107.00 🔸 SL: Above 108.40 (invalidates the bearish thesis) 🎯 TP1: 103.88 (S/R retest) 🎯 TP2: 101.20 (extended target on risk aversion) 🧭 Synthesis Every angle aligns toward a potential bearish reversal on CAD/JPY: ✅ COT positioning ✅ Seasonality ✅ Macro narrative ✅ Technical confluence ✅ Retail sentiment trap
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
EURJPY Just Broke Out – Is This the Start of a Summer Rally?📊 1. COT Report – Euro & Yen EUR (Euro FX – CME): Non-Commercials: Long: +5,968 | Short: -4,293 → Net Long increasing Commercials: Long: +11,480 | Short: +24,451 → Net Short → Speculators are clearly bullish on the euro. JPY (Japanese Yen – CME): Non-Commercials: Long: -5,319 | Short: +1,235 → Net Long decreasing Commercials: Long: +31,893 | Short: +25,462 → Hedging, but still net short → The yen continues to be sold, especially by institutional players. 📌 EUR/JPY COT Summary: Speculators are buying EUR and selling JPY → strong bullish bias on EUR/JPY. 🧠 2. Retail Sentiment 80% of retail traders are short EUR/JPY, with an average entry at 161.50 Current price is around 167.20 → retail is heavily underwater ✅ Strong contrarian bullish signal 📉 3. Technical Analysis Price broke out of a long-term range, printing new yearly highs RSI is overbought but with no active bearish divergence Price sits inside a major supply zone between 166.50 and 168.00, where previous rejections occurred A potential pullback to the 164.60–164.15 area aligns with ascending trendline support 🟡 Likely Scenario: A healthy technical pullback to 164.50–165.00 to cool off RSI, followed by a continuation higher if supported by momentum and COT positioning 📅 4. Seasonality June is historically a bullish month for EUR/JPY: 5-year avg: +1.167% 2-year avg: +2.41% → Seasonality supports more upside into early July 🌍 5. Macro Context BoJ remains dovish, no sign of imminent tightening ECB is steady but relatively less dovish → rate differential still favors the euro No signs yet of verbal intervention from Japan.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
10
Smart Money Just Flipped Bearish on USD/CAD. Are You Still Long?🧠 1. COT Context & Institutional Flows 🇨🇦 CAD COT Report (CME) – June 10, 2025 Non-Commercials (speculators): net short 93,143 contracts (19,651 long vs. 112,794 short), with a short reduction of -14,319 → early bearish unwinding. Commercials: net long 91,207 contracts (223,285 long vs. 132,078 short), with strong accumulation (+27,999 longs). 🔄 Net open interest change: +18,436 → renewed institutional interest on the long CAD side. 🇺🇸 USD Index COT Report (ICE) – June 10, 2025 Non-Commercials: net long 1,402 contracts (17,027 long vs. 15,625 short), with a +1,279 increase in longs → modest USD support. Commercials remain net short -35 contracts, no clear shift. 🔄 Total open interest +2,652 → mild bullish interest in USD. 📌 Implication: Strong institutional support for CAD, USD mildly supported. Net positioning favors downside pressure on USD/CAD. 💹 2. Technical Analysis & Price Action Primary trend: clearly bearish from the 1.38 zone. Current price: 1.3552, testing a macro demand zone (1.3470–1.3540). Daily RSI remains deeply oversold → possible technical bounce, but no reversal structure confirmed. Recent candles show lower highs and lower lows, with no bullish momentum. 📌 Implication: The bearish trend remains in control. A technical rebound is possible, but bias stays short as long as price trades below 1.3640. 📈 3. Retail Sentiment 77% of retail traders are long USD/CAD, with an average entry at 1.3646. Only 23% are short, positioned better at 1.3790. 📌 Implication: Retail is heavily long → contrarian bearish signal confirmed. 📊 4. Seasonality June is historically weak for USD/CAD: 5Y Avg: -0.0118 2Y Avg: -0.0081 The June seasonal curve shows a stronger downside acceleration into the second half of the month. 📌 Implication: Seasonality adds downward pressure into month-end.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
Retail is 86% Long on GBPCHF… But Smart Money Is Setting a Trap📊 1. RETAIL SENTIMENT Long Positions: 86% – Average Entry: 1.1196 Short Positions: 14% – Average Entry: 1.0999 Current Price: 1.1010 Analysis: Retail positioning is heavily skewed towards longs, with the average long entry significantly above the current market price. This creates vulnerability to downside pressure through stop-loss hunting or a bearish squeeze. Such extreme retail bias often acts as a contrarian signal: smart money may continue pushing the price lower to flush out retail traders before any meaningful reversal occurs. 🧾 2. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS – COT REPORT (June 10, 2025) 🔹 British Pound (GBP) Non-Commercials (Speculators): Net Long increasing by +7.4K → now at +51.6K Commercials (Hedgers): Net Short decreasing by -13.9K → now at -60.5K Total Open Interest: Decreased by -19K Interpretation: Speculators are maintaining strong long exposure on GBP, while commercials are covering some shorts—potentially signaling a short-term pause in bullish momentum. However, the drop in overall open interest suggests possible consolidation or short-term uncertainty. 🔹 Swiss Franc (CHF) Non-Commercials: Net Shorts reduced by -2.7K Commercials: Net Longs increased by +2.5K Total Open Interest: Increased by +5.6K Interpretation: The CHF is gaining strength. Commercial participants are increasing their long exposure while speculators reduce their shorts—this positive divergence supports a bullish outlook on CHF, especially against retail-heavy long pairs like GBP. 📈 3. CHF SEASONALITY – JUNE Average CHF Performance in June: 20-Year Avg: +0.0099 15-Year Avg: +0.0138 10-Year Avg: +0.0099 5-Year Avg: +0.0039 Analysis: Historically, June is a seasonally strong month for the Swiss Franc. This seasonal bias aligns with current macro conditions, reinforcing the bullish case for CHF. 📊 4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (Daily Chart) Pattern: Descending channel with a recent false breakdown and re-entry Key Support Zone: 1.0980–1.1000 → tested and defended with a bullish wick Target Resistance: 1.1170–1.1200 → prior retail cluster, supply zone, and average long entry Scenario: A confirmed breakout of the channel could trigger a short squeeze toward 1.1170–1.1200 📌 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK The current GBP/CHF setup is technically and sentimentally delicate. The price sits on a major daily demand zone, while sentiment and macro flows suggest downside pressure remains in play—but also allow room for a potential contrarian rally (short squeeze). 👉 Action Plan: Wait for intraday/daily confirmation: Go long above 1.1045 (breakout confirmation) → target 1.1170 Go short below 1.0980 (bearish continuation) → target 1.0860
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
5