USD-CHF Free Signal! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USD-CHF is once again
Retesting a horizontal support
Level around 0.8189 and the
Pair seems to have formed
A H&S pattern, so we are bearish
Biased, however, a local bullish
Rebound from the support
Is possible so while risky
A long trade still makes sense
With the Take Profit of 0.8238
And the Stop Loss of 0.8184
Buy!
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Ict
ETHUSD: The Market Is Looking Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse ETHUSD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 2,202.5 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 2,489.5 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
BTCUSD: Strong Bullish Sentiment! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse BTCUSD together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding above a key level of 107,147.58 So a bullish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next high. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Nasdaq and Indexes Week 22 BiasWhile the Indexes maitain a Bullish perspective on Weekly right now, I would not dare to anticipate next week "Flavour" but rather wait for The New Week Opening and if necessary till FOMC Minutes on Wednesday.
I would like to see immediate rejection from where price it's right now (allowing it to reach the IFVG starting at 20,690.00) to maintain a bullish bias rather then a deeper retrace, otherwise Bias may change on a Daily basis and pause that Weekly View for a later time .
Cocoa Explosion Loading? Specs & Hedgers Agree🔍 Fundamental Analysis – Commitment of Traders (COT)
The latest COT report, dated May 13, 2025, reveals a strong bullish accumulation signal, with a significant increase in long positions across all major trader categories.
Specifically, Non-Commercials (speculative traders such as hedge funds and money managers) increased their long positions by +3,490 contracts while simultaneously reducing shorts by -467 contracts. This dynamic reflects renewed speculative confidence in the cocoa bullish trend.
Simultaneously, Commercials (typically producers and processors) added +5,187 long contracts and closed -661 short contracts. This is especially noteworthy, as commercials usually take the opposite side of speculators. Here, however, their alignment with speculators may indicate expectations of upcoming supply constraints or market stress.
Total open interest rose by more than +6,000 contracts, suggesting real capital inflow into the market rather than just rebalancing.
This alignment between speculators and institutional hedgers is rare and often precedes further price appreciation.
📈 Net Positions & Price Action
Looking at the “Net Positions & Prices” chart over the past year, it’s clear that Non-Commercial net positions are recovering after a notable drop in March and April. This reversal aligns with the technical bottom and the start of the current price rally.
Commercials, although still net short (in line with their historical bias), are reducing their bearish exposure, hinting at lower physical supply pressure or a need for hedging against further price increases.
Price action has reflected this narrative, surging higher following the April lows.
🕰️ Seasonal Analysis
Seasonality adds another layer to the analysis.
Historically, May tends to be flat or slightly bearish (10Y and 15Y averages), but the 2-Year seasonal line—which better reflects current market behavior—shows a strong bullish tendency starting mid-month. This supports the ongoing rebound and increases the likelihood of further upside in the short term.
Historical data also shows that June, while volatile, is often positive or neutral in shorter cycles.
📊 Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, cocoa recently completed a strong bullish leg, rebounding from the 8,800–9,000 USD demand zone, identified as a clear area of institutional buying (evident through volume and impulsive candles).
The price then decisively broke through mid-range resistance levels and tested a key weekly supply zone between 11,200 and 11,500 USD, where it was initially rejected.
Currently, we are in a technical pullback, likely targeting the mitigation zone at 9,700–10,000 USD. This area represents a solid long entry opportunity if the market confirms a bullish structure on intraday charts (H1 or H4).
The RSI is near overbought, yet without divergence—suggesting the trend remains structurally bullish despite a natural correction.
🧭 Strategic Conclusion
Cocoa currently shows a rare convergence of bullish signals: supportive COT positioning, increasing net long interest, strong 2Y seasonality, and clear technical structure controlled by buyers.
However, after the recent sharp upside move, a correction to key support zones is likely before another bullish leg unfolds.
GBP/USD About to Explode?GBP/USD is currently trading around the 1.3360–1.3380 zone after testing the key weekly resistance area between 1.3400 and 1.3450. The bullish momentum remains strong, supported by speculative positioning still favoring the pound, while the dollar shows signs of softening. On the macro side, the interest rate differential between the UK and the US may narrow in the coming months, but for now, it continues to support upward pressure on the pair.
From a technical standpoint, price has broken out of an ascending triangle on the daily chart, showing strong momentum and confirmation with multiple closes above 1.3300. Market sentiment remains skewed to the short side, adding contrarian fuel to the bullish bias. The key short-term support lies between 1.3270 and 1.3300. As long as this area holds, the base case favors a continuation toward 1.3520 and potentially 1.3600. A break below 1.3170 would invalidate the current bullish structure and open the door for a deeper pullback toward 1.3000.
From an execution standpoint, a confirmed breakout above 1.3415 could offer a long entry opportunity with active management. Still, caution is advised around the weekly supply zone due to its historical responsiveness. Eyes remain on upcoming macro data and potential volatility from central bank statements.
Corn at a Historical Turning Point? Corn futures are currently at a technically significant juncture. After an extended bearish phase from the yearly highs, price has reached a key monthly demand zone between 445 and 435 cents, an area that has historically triggered major reversals. This level is further validated by technical signals indicating potential exhaustion of the bearish momentum: the price action is showing rejection candles, and the RSI is recovering from oversold territory, creating room for a possible upside move.
However, it’s important to consider the seasonal context, which doesn’t favor an immediate reversal. Historical data shows that May, June, and July are statistically the weakest months for Corn. In particular, July tends to be highly bearish, with an average performance of -22% over the last 20 years and -36% over the last 10. This means that while the technical setup may suggest a potential bounce, seasonal pressure may continue to cap prices in the short term, making a sustained rally unlikely before August.
The COT positioning adds another layer of insight. Non-commercial traders (speculators) have recently closed a significant number of long positions and added shorts, reflecting strong bearish sentiment. In contrast, commercials (hedgers) have increased long exposure and decreased shorts, signaling optimism and a willingness to accumulate at these levels. This divergence often marks contrarian opportunities, especially when speculators are heavily short and commercials are heavily long—often a sign of a market bottom forming.
🧠 Summary:
Corn is sitting on major structural support, with early signs of a potential rebound. Yet, the seasonality remains bearish through mid-summer. The COT report, however, supports a bullish medium-term outlook, particularly heading into August–September, when prices historically begin to climb decisively.
🔔 Trading Outlook:
In the short term, tactical longs can be considered if the 445–435 area holds, with tight risk management. Initial targets are set at 465 and 472. The true strategic setup, however, is more likely to emerge in the coming months, with August as the key window for a sustained upside move supported by both seasonal and COT positioning.
USD/JPY Breakdown Incoming? 4 Powerful Signals Say 'Short Now'! The current landscape for USD/JPY signals a potential bearish reversal, supported by a convergence of technical, sentiment, and fundamental factors. Following a strong bullish leg from the 140 zone, price has reached the 146–147 resistance area, where it is currently being rejected. Price action has broken below the ascending channel that began in early April, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum and a possible transition into a deeper corrective phase.
From the COT (Commitment of Traders) perspective, the picture aligns with this bias. Non-commercials on the USD Index (DXY) are aggressively reducing exposure on both long and short sides, resulting in a net position of -615 contracts. This reflects growing uncertainty or waning confidence in dollar strength as U.S. monetary policy enters a potential pivot zone. Meanwhile, JPY futures still show a strong net long position by speculators (194,226 long vs. 21,958 short), even after a significant long liquidation of over 9,700 contracts. Commercial traders, typically positioned opposite to trend, remain heavily net short—hinting at possible strength ahead for the yen.
Seasonality adds further weight: May is historically a bearish month for USD/JPY. The 5, 10, and 15-year averages all show negative returns, with a structural downside tendency, especially in the final two weeks of the month.
Retail sentiment further supports this case. Data shows that 68% of retail traders are currently long USD/JPY. Interpreting this through a contrarian lens, it implies growing downside potential, as over-positioned retail traders often precede a move in the opposite direction.
Lastly, technical analysis (daily timeframe) reinforces the bearish scenario. The break below the bullish channel invalidates the recent structure, and the RSI is trending lower with plenty of room to move down before hitting oversold levels. Immediate support zones lie between 143 and 141. A potential retest of 145.80–146.30 would offer a favorable entry for fresh shorts in line with a developing bearish swing structure.
🎯 Conclusion
All elements—technical structure, COT data, seasonal weakness, and retail sentiment—are converging toward a bearish USD/JPY outlook. Institutional traders are cutting dollar longs, seasonal forces are negative, and retail positioning is overly long. With price structure now broken, the bearish bias is well supported, targeting 143 first and 141 as a deeper move, pending price action confirmation.
USD-JPY Free Signal For Monday! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USD-JPY is about to retest
A horizontal support level
Around 142.000 and after
The retest on Monday we
Will be able to go long on
The pair with the Take
Profit of 143.331 and the
Stop Loss of 141.939
Buy!
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GBP-CAD Support Cluster! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GBP-CAD is trading in a
Local uptrend along the
Rising support and the pair
Made a retest of the support
Cluster of the rising and
Horizontal support lines
Around 1.8546 from where
We are already seeing a
Bullish rebound so we
Will be expecting a
Further local bullish move
Up on Monday
Buy!
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DAX WILL KEEP GROWING|LONG|
✅DAX made a retest of
The horizontal support level
Of 23,371 and the index is already
Making a bullish rebound so we
Are bullish biased and we will
Be expecting further growth on Monday
LONG🚀
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Bullish Outlook for GoldLot of reasons for me to long GOLD.
1) 3500 round number All Time High Level.
Will be probably taken out real quick.
Possibly with a NWOG gap.
2) Blue box is my focused dealing range.
Equilibrium respected and confirmed.
Take profit 1: 3570 ( 2 st. deviations)
Take profit 2: 3796 ( 4 st. deviations)
3) Daily FVG
Extremely reactive to the top quadrant of the May 20 gap.
Bullish Outlook For GOLDLot of reasons for me to long GOLD.
1) 3500 round number All Time High Level.
Will be probably taken out real quick.
Possibly with a NWOG gap.
2) Blue box is my focused dealing range.
Equilibrium respected and confirmed.
Take profit 1: 3570 ( 2 st. deviations)
Take profit 2: 3796 ( 4 st. deviations)
3) Daily FVG
Extremely reactive to the top quadrant of the May 20 gap.
GBP_USD SWING BREAKOUT|LONG|
✅GBP_USD made an absolutely
EPIC breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 1.3426 and the breakout is
Confirmed even on a DAILY timeframe
Which combined with the strong uptrend
Makes us extremely bullish biased on
The pair and we will be expecting
Further growth in the coming weeks
After a potential local pullback
LONG🚀
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USOIL: Bulls Are Winning! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 61.687 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 62.377.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
NG1!: Next Move Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse NG1! together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 3.307 Therefore, a strong bearish reaction here could determine the next move down.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 3.269.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
NI225: Target Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse NI225 together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 37,160.17 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 36,963.23 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURAUD Ready to Launch? Institutions Positioning for a Big Move!🔍 1. COT REPORT (Commitment of Traders)
EUR:
Net Positioning (Non-Commercial): +75,253 → Bullish, but slightly reduced this week (-3,587 longs, +6,814 shorts).
Commercials: Heavily short (550,286 vs 423,456 longs) → Hedging against potential EUR strength.
Open interest change: +8,343 contracts → Higher market participation, active environment.
AUD:
Net Positioning (Non-Commercial): -59,077 → Strong bearish sentiment on AUD.
Commercials: Net long (121,279 vs 61,743 shorts) → Fundamental support for AUD at potential value areas.
Open interest down (-2,607) → Possible position unwinding or rollover.
📊 COT Conclusion: Speculators favor EUR long / AUD short, but commercials are positioned inversely, suggesting a potential reversal point.
📈 2. SEASONALITY
EUR in May:
Generally negative, with average monthly performance over 10y, 15y, and 20y ranging between -0.01% and -0.02%.
Only the 2y curve shows strength (≈+0.0194).
AUD in May:
Mixed performance: 10y and 5y negative, but 2y slightly positive (+0.0083) → sign of recent improvement.
📊 Seasonality Conclusion: Slight edge for AUD thanks to near-term seasonal resilience.
💡 3. SENTIMENT
Retail traders: 84% short on EURAUD.
Average short entry: 1.7002, current price ≈ 1.7491 → many are in drawdown.
High short congestion above 1.74 → Potential short squeeze setup.
📊 Sentiment Conclusion: Environment favors a bullish push to trigger stops and unwind retail shorts.
🧠 4. PRICE ACTION
Price reacted to a major demand zone at 1.7200–1.7350.
Last two weekly candles show compression and accumulation following strong bearish momentum.
Clear liquidity pocket above 1.76–1.77, targeting the 1.79–1.80 zone.
RSI showing recovery from oversold conditions.
📊 Technical Conclusion: Structure suggests rebound or reversal, aligned with sentiment and positioning dynamics.
🔚 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
Primary Bias: LONG EURAUD (multi-day / swing setup)
🎯 Target: 1.7700 – 1.7920
🛡️ Stop: Below 1.7310 (weekly close under demand zone)
⚠️ Alternative (Scenario B): A clear weekly close below 1.7300 may reactivate the bearish trend toward 1.7200.
Analysis provided based on market conditions as of May 23, 2025Analysis provided based on market conditions as of May 23, 2025, at 17:56:48 New York time.
Section 0: Instant Trading Signal
Symbol: AVAX-USD
Trade Direction: Sell
Suggested Entry Range: 23.80 - 23.90 (wait for retracement)
Stop Loss: 24.05
Main Target(s): 23.15 and 22.34
Very Short Note: Entry is conditional upon price returning to the entry range, medium risk, pay attention to time and price confluence.
Section 1: Title and Quick Summary
Live AVAX/USD Analysis: Sell Opportunity on a Pullback to Target Lower Liquidity?
Symbol and Probable Direction: AVAX-USD / Sell
Current Situation Simply Put: Based on the analysis on May 23, 2025, at 17:56:48 New York time, the AVAX/USD market shows an uptrend on the daily timeframe but with a recent significant downward move, and it is in a ranging phase on the 4-hour timeframe. On lower timeframes (1-hour, 15-minute, and 5-minute), the order flow is clearly bearish, and the price is targeting lower liquidity levels. After a recent sharp downward move, the price is currently near short-term support levels and may have an upward pullback (Retracement) before continuing its downward move.
Section 2: Proposed Trading Setup
Trade Direction: Sell
Precise Entry Range: Entry is suggested within the 23.80 - 23.90 range. This range is near the center (CE - Consequent Encroachment) and the upper part of a Bearish FVG (Fair Value Gap) on the 4-hour timeframe (23.66 - 23.93), which formed after the recent strong downward move. This area can act as a Discount zone for sell-side traders. We expect the price, after testing the current lower levels, to pull back to this area to continue its downward move. A more precise entry after observing LTF (Lower Time Frame) confirmation (such as a bearish break of structure and formation of a new FVG) on the 5-minute or 1-minute timeframe if the price reaches the 23.80 - 23.90 range can reduce risk, but the main setup is defined based on the 4-hour zone.
Stop Loss: 24.05. This level is just above the 4-hour FVG (23.66 - 23.93) and above the last significant Swing High before the creation of this FVG on the 4-hour timeframe. A decisive break of this level invalidates the entry scenario based on this FVG.
Price Targets:
First Target: 23.15 (PDL or Previous Daily Low). This is the first significant liquidity level identified on the daily and 1-hour timeframes and is the first logical target for profit-taking after entry.
Second Target: 22.34 (SL or significant Swing Low on the daily timeframe). This is a more significant and lower liquidity level that could be the next price target, especially considering the PWL (Probable Weekly Low) of 21.27 nearby. Estimated Timeframe to Reach Targets: Given that the time is May 23, 2025, 17:56:48 New York time, which is late in the New York session and the beginning of the Asia session, movement towards the targets may be slower. We expect the main move to occur during the London or New York sessions of the next trading day (May 24, 2025). Reaching the first target might take an estimated 12-24 hours, and the second target 24-48 hours, conditional upon the entry point being activated.
Confidence Level in the Setup: Medium.
Justification: The alignment of the bearish trend on lower timeframes and the targeting of lower liquidity are positive factors. The presence of a 4-hour FVG above the current price provides a logical entry zone. However, the daily trend is still identified as bullish (albeit weak), and the quality of recent structural breaks on lower timeframes has been average and not accompanied by strong FVGs. Also, the setup is contingent on a pullback to the entry range.
ICT Entry Model and Main Logic: This setup is based on a combination of Market Structure analysis, Liquidity, and the use of PD Arrays (FVG) on different timeframes. After a bearish break of structure on lower timeframes and the creation of a bearish order flow, we expect the price to pull back to a Premium area or an Inefficiency zone like the 4-hour FVG to gather more sell orders. Entering in this zone (within a relative OTE - Optimal Trade Entry - for the recent downward move) with a logical stop loss above the invalidation point allows for targeting liquidity at lower levels (PDL and SL/PWL) with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
Setup Validity: This setup is valid as long as the price does not reach the stop loss at 24.05. Also, if the price reaches the first or second targets without a significant pullback, the validity of the setup for a new entry decreases.
Special Precautionary Notes: Avoid emotional entry at the current price; wait for a pullback to the 23.80 - 23.90 range. Refrain from trading during major economic news releases (if any in the coming days). Due to the average quality of recent BOS (Break of Structure) on LTF, manage your position size.
Section 3: Why the Analysis and a Deeper ICT Look
Higher Timeframe In-depth Analysis: On the daily timeframe (1D), the overall market trend is identified as bullish, but this trend has entered a mid-term corrective or bearish phase after price highs (like 55.84 and 30.85). The last bullish Break of Structure (BOS) on the daily had average quality (4.7/10) and was not accompanied by the creation of an FVG, indicating not-so-strong buyer power at that point. Currently, the price on the 4-hour timeframe (4H) is in a ranging phase, but the recent move downwards from the 26.82 high indicates seller dominance in this area. The market narrative from an ICT perspective is that after a distribution phase at higher tops, the price is now collecting liquidity at lower levels in a corrective phase or the beginning of a larger bearish move, even if the daily trend has not officially changed yet. Key pivots like 22.34 (Daily SL) and 21.27 (PWL) are important targets for the Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA). The current price, as of May 23, 2025, at 17:56:48 New York time, is near the bottom of the recent 4-hour trading range.
(Very Important) Reference to Previous Analysis: No prior analysis has been provided for the AVAX-USD symbol, so this analysis is our first assessment of the current state of this asset based on ICT principles.
Entry Timeframe Analysis: On the 1-hour (1H), 15-minute (15min), and 5-minute (5min) timeframes, the market structure has clearly turned Bearish, and bearish Breaks of Structure (BOS) have been repeated, although the quality of these BOS (score around 5/10) and the lack of strong FVG creation immediately after the breaks indicate a lack of strong momentum in each bearish wave. However, the dominant order flow on these timeframes is bearish, and the price is targeting lower internal and external liquidity levels. At the current time, May 23, 2025, at 17:56:48 New York time, the Asia session is active. Sharp moves often occur during the London or New York sessions, so expecting a pullback during the Asia session and the main move in subsequent sessions is more logical. The suggested entry range of 23.80 - 23.90 is based on the 4-hour FVG, which is a significant inefficiency area in the path of the recent downward move and could be ideal for re-entry for sell-side traders after a pullback.
Main Confluences:
Dominant bearish order flow on lower timeframes (1-hour, 15-minute, 5-minute).
Targeting significant liquidity levels below the current price (PDL 23.15 and SL 22.34).
Existence of a 4-hour FVG (23.66 - 23.93) as a potential pullback area for sellers to re-enter.
Price position in the lower part of the 4-hour trading range and approaching important targets.
Invalidation Conditions and Alternative Scenario: The main scenario (sell after pullback) is invalidated if the price reaches the stop loss at 24.05. In this case, the price will likely intend to fill higher inefficiencies or target liquidity above recent swing highs (like PDH 25.43 or 25.97). If the price reaches the lower liquidity levels (first and second targets) without a significant pullback, the sell setup based on this entry point will no longer be valid, and planning for a new setup at lower levels (e.g., based on testing a lower OTE or reacting to the 22.34 liquidity) will be necessary.
Section 4: Educational Tip or Small Exercise
ICT Educational Tip of the Week: The importance of combining timeframes and following institutional order flow. As we saw in the AVAX/USD analysis, even if the overall trend on a very high timeframe (daily) is bullish, examining mid-term (4-hour) and lower (1-hour, 15-minute, 5-minute) timeframes can indicate a change in order flow in the short and medium term. Observing Breaks of Structure (BOS) and following the path price takes to collect liquidity helps us predict the probable direction of the next move and find entry zones (PD Arrays) in the direction of the dominant order flow on the entry timeframe. Always try to align your bias with the institutional order flow on the main timeframes.
Exercise for You: On the AVAX/USD chart, identify the 4-hour FVG range (23.66 - 23.93). Also, mark the liquidity levels PDL 23.15 and SL 22.34. Monitor the price movement in the coming hours and days. Does the price pull back to the 4-hour FVG? If it pulls back, what reaction do you observe on the 5-minute or 1-minute timeframe in this area (e.g., CHoCH - Change of Character - and bearish FVG)? Does the price succeed in targeting the lower liquidity levels? This exercise will help you better understand how to use PD Arrays and liquidity levels alongside market structure analysis.
Section 5: Risk Management and Disclaimer
Risk Management Warning and Disclaimer: Trading in financial markets involves significant risk and may result in the loss of your capital. The analysis and signals provided are purely for educational and analytical purposes and are by no means financial advice or definitive trading signals. The final decision to enter any trade, determine position size, stop loss, and targets is your own responsibility. Always use appropriate risk management (such as determining position size based on a small percentage of your capital per trade) and only trade with capital you can afford to lose. The responsibility for any profit or loss resulting from the use of this analysis lies with the individual trader.
AUD_USD SHORT FROM RESISTANCE|
✅AUD_USD has been growing recently
And the pair seems locally overbought
So as the pair is approaching a horizontal resistance of 0.6515
Price decline is to be expected on Monday
SHORT🔥
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GBP_CAD RISING SUPPORT AHEAD|LONG|
✅GBP_CAD is trading along the rising support
And as the pair will soon retest it
I am expecting the price to go up
To retest the supply levels above at 1.8605
LONG🚀
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BITCOIN Will Keep Growing! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
BITCOIN is trading in an
Uptrend and the coin made a
Great breakout of the previous
ATH which makes us super
Bullish biased so as BTC is
Making a local bearish correction
We will be expecting a bullish
Rebound from the rising support
And a further bullish move up
Buy!
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