Get started

Ict

GBPNZD: Support Rebound! Target 2.26 on the Horizon? The weekly chart of GBPNZD shows a consolidation phase following a strong bearish impulse. The price has reacted positively from the support area around 2.2200, forming a significant bullish candle that could indicate a rebound towards the resistance area at 2.2600. The positive momentum suggests a possible test of the intermediate resistance at 2.2500, with the RSI gradually rising from an oversold zone. Fundamental Analysis According to the COT data updated as of April 29, 2025, we observe an increase in long positions on GBP by institutional traders, with an increment of +10,665 contracts. On the other hand, commercial traders (hedgers) continue to maintain a significant short exposure on GBP. This imbalance may suggest a potential short-term speculative interest in a bullish GBP move. Regarding NZD, the latest COT report shows a significant increase in commercial long positions (+3,884 contracts), indicating a strengthening of the New Zealand dollar. However, the overall market sentiment shows a prevalence of short positions on GBPNZD (59% short vs. 41% long), suggesting that retail traders might be on the wrong side of the market. Seasonal Analysis Historically, in May, GBP tends to show weakness (-0.0076 over the last 20 years), while NZD does not show a clear seasonal pattern. This could reduce the likelihood of a decisive GBP movement during this month. Operational Strategy The rebound from 2.2200 could favor the opening of long positions with the first target at 2.2500 and the second target at 2.2600. The stop loss could be placed below the key support at 2.2100. In case of a resistance breakout, an extension towards the 2.2700 area would be plausible.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
NAS100USD: Volatility Opens Door for Sell Setup in NY SessionGreetings Traders, As we enter the New York session—a period known for heightened volatility—we note that NAS100USD remains in a broader bullish environment. However, current price action suggests the potential for a short-term reversal, prompting us to explore selling opportunities. Key Observations: 1. Bearish Internal Structure Developing: Despite the overall bullish trend, internal price action reveals a sequence of lower lows, indicating the formation of a bearish microstructure. This internal weakness is reflected in the way bearish arrays—such as mitigation blocks and fair value gaps (FVGs)—continue to act as resistance zones. 2. Mitigation Block & FVG Alignment: Recently, price delivered a strong displacement to the downside, followed by a retracement into a mitigation block that aligns with a fair value gap. This confluence reinforces the bearish bias and suggests institutional selling may be active in this zone. 3. Downside Targets – Gap Fill & Liquidity Pools: The first downside target is a nearby inefficiency (gap) in price action, which the market often seeks to fill. The second target lies below, where sell-side liquidity pools are likely resting. Trading Plan: Monitor price behavior within the current resistance zone. If confirmation of continued bearish momentum appears, short positions targeting the aforementioned levels may be viable. Stay focused and wait for confirmation before committing to any positions. Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
Ultimate Guide to Master CISDCISD stands for Consolidation, Inducement, Stop Hunt, Displacement. It’s a simple, repeatable structure that shows how smart money sets up traps in the market to grab liquidity and then make a clean move in the opposite direction. If you’re serious about trading the ICT style, this is one of the most useful frameworks to learn. It helps you avoid chasing bad breakouts and teaches you to wait for real setups that come after stop hunts and proper market structure shifts. But there’s one rule that’s non-negotiable — a CISD setup is only valid after a liquidity sweep. If the market hasn’t taken out a clear high or low where stops are sitting, then the rest of the model doesn’t mean anything. No sweep, no trade. 1. Start With the Liquidity Sweep Everything begins with the liquidity grab. If price hasn’t taken out a high or low where stops are stacked, you should walk away from the setup. Don’t try to front-run a move before smart money has done its job. The liquidity sweep is what gives the rest of the move power. That’s when price runs through obvious levels, swing highs, swing lows, the Asian range, New York session highs or lows and hits stop losses. Those stops give smart money fuel to enter in the opposite direction. When you’re watching the market, ask yourself this: "Who just got stopped out?" If you can’t answer that, then it’s not a sweep. And if it’s not a sweep, it’s not a CISD. 2. Consolidation — Where Liquidity Builds This is the first part of the structure. Price starts to move sideways in a tight range, usually during Asian session or during parts of London where volume is low. It can last for hours or even across sessions. The key here is to understand what’s happening. Traders are placing buys above the highs and sells below the lows. Liquidity is building on both sides. It’s a trap being set. Retail traders are expecting a breakout, but smart money is waiting to use that breakout to their advantage. Your job in this phase is to identify the range and mark out the highs and lows. That’s where stops will be sitting. You’re not looking to trade during this phase. You’re watching and planning 3. Inducement (sweep)— Fake Break to Trap Traders After the range is set, price gives a small push out of the range just enough to get people to commit. This is the inducement. It’s the bait. Let’s say the range high is being tested. Price breaks just above it, traders think it’s a breakout, and they go long. Maybe it holds for a couple of minutes, even gives a small push in their favor. But then it rolls over. That’s the trap. Now those traders are caught, and their stops are sitting below. Sometimes the inducement comes before the real sweep. Other times, the inducement is the sweep. What matters is that traders have been lured into bad positions and their stops are exposed. As a trader, your job is not to take the bait. Watch how price reacts to these fake moves. Often, they come with weak volume or are followed by an immediate sharp reversal. 4. Stop Hunt — The Sweep That Validates the Setup This is where the real move starts to form. Price aggressively runs through the level that holds liquidity, usually below the low or above the high you marked earlier. This is when smart money takes out the traders who were induced during the fake move. Their stops get hit, and that gives institutions the volume they need to get into the opposite side. You should be actively watching for a reaction here. Do you see rejection? Does the candle close with a strong wick? Are there signs of absorption or order flow flipping? This is your validation point. Once price sweeps liquidity and starts to reject the level, that’s your cue to get ready for the next part, the actual shift. 5. Displacement — The Real Move Begins Once the sweep happens, price doesn’t just drift, it snaps back hard. This is called displacement. Displacement is a sharp, clean move in the opposite direction of the stop hunt. This is when market structure breaks, momentum shifts, and a fair value gap usually forms. This is your confirmation that the setup is live. The sweep happened, smart money entered, and now the market is moving with intent. You don’t want to chase the displacement candle itself. Instead, wait for the retrace. Look for price to come back into the fair value gap or an order block left behind by the impulse. That’s your entry point. Make sure: Structure is broken in your direction The move away is impulsive, not choppy You’re not forcing an entry on a weak pullback This is the only part of CISD where you actually take the trade. Everything else is just setup. How to Manage Risk and Entries Once you’ve got a valid setup, here’s how to manage it: Entry: Enter on the CISD or wait for the pullback into the fair value gap or order block. Enter on the reaction or confirmation. Stop Loss: Place it just past the low or high that got swept. If you’re long, your stop goes below the stop hunt candle. If you’re short, it goes above. Take Profit: Target the next liquidity level. That could be the other side of the range, a swing high or low, or an inefficiency in price. You can scale out if price approaches a session high or low, or hold for a full range expansion depending on the session. Final Thoughts The CISD model works because it’s built on how the market actually moves, not indicators, not random patterns, but liquidity. Don’t jump in early. Don’t guess. Wait for the sweep. Wait for the displacement. That’s where the edge is. Once you get used to watching this play out in real time, you’ll start to see it everywhere. It’s in Forex, crypto, indices, any market that runs on liquidity. Stick to the rules. Let the model do its job. And remember: no sweep, no setup! ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this guide helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
Education
by TehThomas
59
NAS100USD: Institutional Support Fuels Bullish MomentumGreetings Traders, In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, we observe that institutional order flow remains bullish, and as such, we aim to align our trading opportunities with this directional bias. Key Observations: Institutional Support Zones: Price has recently retraced into a significant institutional support area—a large mitigation block, where smart money typically mitigates previous sell orders and initiates new buy orders. This zone is further reinforced by the presence of a reclaimed order block, signaling an area where prior institutional buying occurred and may now be re-engaged. Confluence of Bullish Arrays: The alignment of the mitigation block, reclaimed order block, and an adjacent breaker block provides strong confluence. While price is currently showing signs of rejection at this zone, it is important to exercise patience and wait for confirmation before entering, especially given the size of the mitigation block. Trading Strategy: Upon confirmation, we will look to initiate long positions from these institutional support levels, targeting liquidity pools resting in premium pricing zones where buy-side liquidity is likely to reside. Stay disciplined and let the market confirm your narrative. Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by The_Archi-tect
They Were 84% Short — Here's What Happened Next on GBPAUDThis is not just a simple breakout — this is what happens when data, price action, and psychology align with surgical precision. Today, we entered a long position on GBPAUD directly from a well-defined weekly demand zone. The setup was already technically solid, but what made it exceptional was the alignment of multiple institutional-grade factors: ✅ Weekly demand zone respected to the pip, with proven historical sensitivity ✅ Change of structure on the H1 chart, confirming a short-term reversal from a deeply discounted area ✅ COT data showing a clear build-up of commercial long positions on the British pound ✅ AUD net positioning deep in negative territory, with declining open interest and no signs of reversal ✅ Retail sentiment: 84% of traders short on GBPAUD according to MyFxBook → strong contrarian signal ✅ Seasonality: GBP tends to outperform AUD during May and June The result? A rapid and aggressive bullish impulse that allowed us to move the stop loss to break-even just a few hours after entry. 📌 Current trade status: ➤ Long from the demand zone ➤ SL at BE = zero risk ➤ Monitoring price action above 2.07 for potential continuation 🎯 Mid-term target zone: 2.1150–2.1300, with focus on liquidity clusters and previous inefficiencies as potential magnets. This is how you build trades that are not just reactive, but proactive — based on multiple layers of confluence and edge, not on emotions or noise.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GOLD - Smart Money Selling, Retail Chasing Longs📉 Technical Context: Price has reacted precisely to the 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone between 3,386–3,442 USD, aligning with a clear weekly supply zone and imbalance. The current market structure suggests a potential lower high, with the first target around 3,060 USD, and the second near 2,880–2,900 USD demand. 🧠 COT Report (as of April 29, 2025): Non-Commercials (speculators) cut 18,519 long contracts, signaling waning bullish conviction. Commercials (hedgers) increased shorts by +9,848 contracts, maintaining a bearish contrarian stance. 📊 Retail Sentiment (MyFxBook): 65% of retail traders are short from 3,062, while 35% are long from 3,184 — ideal environment for a bull trap before reversal. 📅 Seasonality (Market Bulls): May is historically weak: 10Y: -9.98% 5Y: -12.21% Strength historically returns in June/July → a correction before continuation is likely. ✅ Conclusion: Technical structure, macro context, and positioning all align for a high-probability short. 📍 Entry Zone: 3,420–3,440 🔒 Stop: Above ATH (3,500) 🎯 Targets: TP1: 3,060 TP2: 2,900
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
A 3-Step Process For Analytical SuccessIn this video I go through the 3-step process of implementing a Bias, Narrative, and Model. This process was a game-changer for me when it came to analysis, as well as taking actual trades. It considered high-probability targets, patience in waiting for traders to coming for me, and the calm of being prepared when it was time to take an entry. It filters out pointless trades, because if I don't have Bias, then I can't have a Narrative, and if I don't have a Narrative, then I don't have a Model. I use ICT concepts, but this process works equally well for most other methodologies that aren't completely mechanical and algorithmic. I give a real example of a trade I took yesterday on EURUSD where I utilized this 3-step process to frame a trade. I hope you find this video insightful and gives you more clarity in your trading! - R2F Trading
Education
by Road_2_Funded
17
The Candles Are Bullish… BUT Is a Reversal on the Horizon?Back on April 28th, we talked about the ES potentially pushing higher — and guess what? It did exactly that! 🎯 Now we find ourselves at a key crossroads. A new month is here, and with the previous monthly candle officially closed, there’s a strong case to be made for even higher prices — possibly up to the 5776 level. 📈 That said, I’ll be diving into the analysis today where I’ll also touch on some reasons why short-term selling could still show up. To be fair, the price action from April (1st–30th) hasn’t given us a lot of evidence for a major reversal, but as always, it’s our job as analysts to stay sharp and open to all possibilities — especially in today’s climate. Right now, I’m still on board the bullish train 🚂 and the charts continue to suggest upward momentum. But I’ll be watching closely for any shifts that might hint at a change. What about you? What’s your take on the current setup? Let’s get the conversation going — I’d love to hear your thoughts! Let's Keep Studying - One Candlestick At A Time!
CME_MINI:MES1!
by MarketsByLee_
NAS100USD: SMT Divergence Hints at Potential ReversalGreetings Traders, In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, although the current market structure reflects bearish institutional order flow, there are growing signs that a potential reversal may be forming. Key Observations: 1. Smart Money Technique (SMT) Divergence: We are currently observing SMT divergence—a strategy where the underlying asset (NAS100) is compared against its benchmark (US500). These indices typically maintain a 90–100% correlation. However, when this correlation breaks down, it often signals that a reversal may be imminent. In this case, while NAS100 continues to show bearish momentum, the divergence from US500 suggests the possibility of bullish interest building. 2. Institutional Support at the Rejection Block: Further confluence for a potential reversal lies in the presence of a rejection block acting as a strong institutional support level. This is a zone where smart money previously defended price, and if confirmed, it could provide an optimal entry for long positions. Trading Plan: We will monitor the rejection block for confirmation of bullish intent before entering any trades. If confirmed, the idea is to target the buy-side liquidity residing in premium pricing zones. Invalidation Level : This reversal idea will be invalidated if NAS500 breaks below its most recent swing low. Stay alert for confirmation, and always ensure the idea fits within your broader trading framework. Kind regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by The_Archi-tect
NAS100USD: Bearish Setup Builds as Price Retests Key Supply ZoneGreetings Traders, In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, we continue to observe bearish institutional order flow, and as such, our objective is to align our trading opportunities with this directional bias. Key Observations: 1. Bearish Break of Structure and Retracement: Following a clear bearish break of structure, price has retraced into a mitigation block. This zone represents an area where institutional buying previously occurred. As price trades back into it, institutions often mitigate those earlier positions and reintroduce sell-side interest—offering us an opportunity to follow their lead. 2. Confluence at the Mitigation Block: The mitigation block is further reinforced by the presence of a bearish order block, adding strength to the resistance zone. This alignment suggests the area may serve as a high-probability reversal point for bearish continuation. Liquidity Sweep Scenario: There remains a possibility that price may take out nearby buy-side liquidity (buy stops) before continuing downward. If this occurs, we will wait for confirmation before entering short positions, maintaining alignment with the overall bearish narrative. Trading Plan: Upon confirmation of rejection at the mitigation zone, we will seek to engage in short setups targeting liquidity pools in discount pricing zones. Remain patient, disciplined, and ensure each trade aligns with your strategy. Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
2