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$GOLD & $SILVER BullishGold and silver on the monthly chart exhibited SMT and mitigation of a PDA in the discounted region, signaling a potential MMBM, which was later confirmed on the daily chart. As a result, we maintain a bullish bias for these assets, considering they may be targeting the external liquidity of the monthly chart as the final objective. However, it is worth noting that the price might correct beforehand, returning to the discount region on the daily chart to seek internal liquidity and build momentum to reach the monthly chart's final liquidity target.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Pilucax
$NQ & ES BearishThe NQ and ES on the monthly chart showed signs of rejection, indicating a possible correction toward a PDA located in the discounted region of this timeframe. Consequently, on the daily chart, there was a shift in the price delivery state, now seeking this liquidity as well as the daily sell sides. We maintain a bearish outlook for the assets, but it is important to note that the price may correct toward the premium region of the daily chart, seeking new liquidity to build momentum and ultimately reach the monthly chart objective: a more pronounced drop.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Pilucax
NAS100USD: Bullish Reversal on the Horizon?Greetings Traders, and welcome to the new year! I wish you all success and prosperity in the year ahead. In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, we observe that the market has been delivering bearish institutional order flow, influenced by high-impact economic releases such as Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate. Despite this bearish momentum, I am anticipating a potential bullish reversal due to several key factors. Key Observations: 1. Rejection Block Signal: A rejection block at the lows indicates that institutions have been entering buying positions. This resulted in a rejection of the previous low, signaling bearish weakness and suggesting the possibility of a reversal. 2. Bullish Break of Structure: Price recently broke a high during its upward movement, signaling bullish strength. This shift suggests that institutions may now be favoring upward price delivery. 3. Mitigation Block as a Key Zone: Price is currently reversing toward a key institutional area known as the mitigation block. What is a Mitigation Block? This zone represents an area where institutions previously entered sell orders during the bearish trend. As price has since moved upward, these sell orders are now in loss. Institutions retrace price to this area to mitigate their losses and reinstate new buy orders to align with the prevailing bullish narrative. These zones are pivotal and form the basis of support and resistance concepts. Trading Strategy: After confirmation, I will be looking for buying opportunities at the mitigation block, targeting the liquidity pool above. This aligns with the narrative that institutions are scaling into bullish positions and preparing for upward price delivery. Stay observant and strategic as we analyze this potential shift in market structure. Feel free to share your thoughts or questions in the comments below, and let’s capitalize on the opportunities ahead! Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by The_Archi-tect
Mastering Fibonacci in TradingMastering Fibonacci in Trading Unlock the secrets of Fibonacci and its applications in trading. Learn how to utilize this powerful tool to find optimal entry and exit points, manage risks, and enhance your trading strategies. What is Fibonacci? The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones. The sequence begins as follows: The sequence is named after the Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci, who introduced it to Western mathematics in his book Liber Abaci in 1202. One of the fascinating properties of this sequence is the ratio between successive numbers, which converges to approximately 1.618—known as the Golden Ratio . The Golden Ratio and Its Significance The Golden Ratio (1.618) and its inverse (0.618) appear frequently in nature, art, architecture, and financial markets. In trading, these ratios, along with derivatives like 0.382 and 0.786, are used to identify potential support and resistance levels. How Fibonacci Became a Trading Tool Traders and analysts observed that price movements often respect Fibonacci levels, retracing or extending along these key points. This led to the creation of Fibonacci-based tools, such as: Fibonacci Retracement : Used to identify potential reversal levels during pullbacks. Fibonacci Extension : Helps forecast profit-taking levels during trends. Fibonacci Arcs, Fans, and Time Zones : Advanced tools for multi-dimensional analysis. Using Fibonacci in Trading Step 1: Identifying the Swing High and Swing Low Select a clear price movement, either an uptrend or a downtrend, and mark the highest point (swing high) and lowest point (swing low). Step 2: Applying Fibonacci Retracement Using the Fibonacci tool on platforms like TradingView, draw from the swing low to the swing high (for uptrends) or from the swing high to the swing low (for downtrends). Key levels to monitor are: 0.236 (23.6%) 0.382 (38.2%) 0.5 (50%) 0.618 (61.8%) 0.786 (78.6%) These levels often act as support or resistance zones. ICT Optimal Trade Entry Zone Fibonacci retracement levels have been widely used by traders, from traditional to Smart Money concepts. While technical analysis has evolved, traditional tools like Fibonacci retracement levels still hold their relevance. A modern adaptation of this is the ICT Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) concept. The Fibonacci level range from 62% (0.618) to 79% (0.786) is known as the Optimal Trade Entry Zone . This zone is critical for identifying high-probability reversal points during retracements. Bullish Setup : In an uptrend, the OTE zone provides a favorable entry point when the price pulls back to this area, indicating a potential continuation of the bullish trend. Bearish Setup : In a downtrend, the OTE zone serves as a resistance area where the price is likely to reverse and continue its downward trajectory. The Golden Pocket The zone between the 0.618 and 0.650 levels is also referred to as the "Golden Pocket," emphasizing its importance as a high-probability area for price reversals or trend continuation. Combining Fibonacci with Other Tools Fibonacci works best when combined with other technical analysis tools: Candlestick Patterns : Confirmation signals for reversals or continuations. Trendlines : Validate key Fibonacci levels. Volume Analysis : Assess the strength of price movements near Fibonacci levels. ICT Strategies : Use concepts like mitigation blocks or liquidity voids to refine entry points in the OTE zone. Practical Applications Scalping: Use Fibonacci on shorter timeframes to identify intraday opportunities. Swing Trading: Combine Fibonacci retracements with trend analysis for multi-day trades. Long-Term Investing: Employ Fibonacci on weekly or monthly charts to identify major turning points. Conclusion Fibonacci tools are essential for any trader looking to enhance their market analysis. By mastering these tools, including the ICT Optimal Trade Entry concept, you can: Identify optimal entry and exit points. Manage risks more effectively. Gain deeper insights into market behavior. Start experimenting with Fibonacci today on TradingView and discover how it can transform your trading strategy!
Education
by BigBeluga
19
EUR/USD Bearish - FOMC Release!EUR/USD trades near 1.0320 after dipping to a low of 1.0275, with recent price action reflecting a prevailing bearish sentiment driven by employment data, a cautious Federal Reserve, and concerns over potential tariff measures by President-elect Donald Trump. Technical indicators on the daily chart show accelerated declines in negative territory, suggesting the likelihood of further downside movement. In the short term, the bearish outlook remains intact as EUR/USD continues trading below all its key moving averages. The 20-period SMA has lost bullish momentum, positioning below longer-term SMAs and confirming persistent selling pressure. Meanwhile, technical indicators maintain a negative slope, signaling further potential losses. The pair experienced a sharp drop ahead of key US economic data amid reports that Trump might declare a national economic emergency to implement a broad tariff program. Despite holding near session lows, EUR/USD showed little reaction to the ADP Employment Report, which revealed that the US private sector added 122K jobs in December, below expectations of 140K. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 3 came in at 201K, better than the expected 218K but lower than the previous 211K, with no significant impact on the pair’s price. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 4.25-4.5%. The decision was made in response to economic data showing solid expansion in economic activity, a labor market displaying slight easing signals, and inflation still above the 2% target. Although some Committee members considered keeping the rate unchanged as a valid option, the majority agreed that further easing was necessary to support the economy and continue reducing inflation toward the established target. From an economic standpoint, real GDP continued to grow at a sustained pace in the fourth quarter of 2024. Inflation, as measured by the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index, slowed compared to the levels recorded in the previous year, though it remained elevated. Employment data indicated an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, with a slight decline in labor force participation. International indicators pointed to a slowdown in economic growth across several advanced economies and declining inflation, mainly due to lower energy prices. From a financial market perspective, the Committee observed a degree of stability in money markets and short-term funding conditions, despite high political and economic uncertainty. Long-term Treasury yields remained stable, while the dollar appreciated against major foreign currencies, reflecting expectations of diverging monetary policies between the United States and other advanced economies. The Committee also discussed the future path of monetary policy, indicating that if data continued to show declining inflation and an economy near full employment, it might be appropriate to further slow the pace of monetary policy interventions. However, members emphasized the need to maintain a cautious approach, considering both upside and downside risks to inflation and economic activity. Key risks highlighted included potential changes in trade and immigration policies, as well as possible geopolitical tensions that could impact global supply chains. Finally, it was decided to proceed with the process of reducing the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS), maintaining a monthly cap on reinvestment of principal payments.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
TOTAL3 ChartHey, This is really a text book chart, together with many others in the crypto atm.. A lot of fear and greed is currently in the market, you see that in the PA. But that is old news, cuz I shared that a long time ago already. For me more upside from this zone is very likely, if it fails... I have to go back to the drawing board and see what is the next area of weekly or monthly demand to time when and where price is likely to move towards. Have a good one, more charts soon. Make sure you follow us :) Kind regards, Max Nieveld
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3
by newcapitalfx
2
GBP/USD Holds Key Level Amid US Data WatchCurrently, GBP/USD is attempting to hold above the 1.2500 level after hitting an intraday high of 1.2575, but pressure from a strengthening US Dollar, driven by positive economic data, has capped further gains. A sustained move above this level could pave the way for new bullish targets, with the first resistance area at 1.2620-1.2630, corresponding to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, followed by 1.2700, which aligns with the 78.6% retracement level. On the downside, the first significant support stands at 1.2302. The recent strength of the Pound has been supported by broad-based USD weakness earlier this week, driven by improved market sentiment, which reduced demand for the greenback as a safe-haven currency. However, risk flows could be influenced by upcoming US macroeconomic data. Traders are focused on December’s ISM Services PMI and JOLTS job openings data. A reading above 50 has strengthened the Dollar, signaling expansion in the services sector.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1