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Trading EURUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 08/07/2024Last week proved challenging for the Judas swing strategy, which experienced losses on AUDUSD and GBPUSD. However, this has heightened our anticipation for a more successful trading week ahead. As is customary, at 8:25 AM EST, we commenced the day by reviewing the essential items on our Judas Swing strategy checklist, which comprises: - Setting the timezone to New York time - Confirming we're on the 5-minute timeframe - Marking the trading period from 00:00 - 08:30 - Identifying the high and low of the zone Now that our trading zone is defined, we wait for a liquidity sweep at either side of the zone to inform our trading bias for the session. Liquidity was taken at the highs after 25 minutes, signaling our focus would be on identifying potential selling opportunities. Even though we have a bias for the trading session, we do not enter trades blindly. Instead, we consider the following questions and do not rush into any trades until all the criteria are met. The questions are: 1. Is there a break of structure (BOS) to the sell side? 2. Has the price leg that broke the structure left a Fair Value Gap (FVG) behind? 3. Has price retraced into the FVG that was left behind? After an hour's wait, two of our previously mentioned conditions were met, indicating we were on the right track. We just needed to wait for price to retrace into the Fair Value Gap (FVG) to execute the trade. After the Break of Structure (BOS), the following candle entered the Fair Value Gap (FVG) that had formed. However, our thorough backtesting revealed that it is preferable to execute trades after the candle that entered the FVG has closed. This approach is due to instances where the candle entering the FVG may proceed to hit our stop loss, but waiting for the candle to close prevents us from such trades. After initiating the trade, we experienced a drawdown for approximately 35 minutes before the position began to move in our favor. Patience is now required for the trade to unfold. Based on the data we have gathered, we anticipate an average trade duration of 8 hours and 27 minutes. We are aware that our strategy does not guarantee a 100% win rate but rather hovers around 50%, indicating that some losses were inevitable. To avoid becoming emotional over the position, we used only 1% of our trading account with the goal of achieving a 2% gain. Upon checking our position later, we observed that it was progressing favorably in the direction we intended. After 12 hours and 20 minutes, our Take Profit was triggered, and our patience paid off as we hit our target on EURUSD, resulting in a 2% gain from a 1% risk on the trade.
by CleoFinance
1
Liquidity is KEY to the MarketsIn this video I go through more about liquidity and why it is important. The markets move because of liquidity. Without liquidity, there is no trading. The larger the trader, the larger the liquidity required. Understanding the concept of liquidity and the fractal nature of price, trading becomes very interesting. A whole new world opens up to you and you no longer have to keep guessing where price is going. You no longer have to keep chasing candles. I hope you find this video insightful. - R2F
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Road_2_Funded
1
R2F Weekly Analysis - 8th July 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. I'm going to go through various assets/markets, and give a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what I'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it! My short-term bias for DXY has switched to bearish. I am looking for a possible lower move on the Dollar Index this week, which should offer some shorts on EURUSD and GBPUSD, the pairs I usually trade. Check out my analysis in the video. I hope you found it insightful. - R2F
Short
by Road_2_Funded
DAILY FOREX MARKET WATCH: SILVER IS BULLISH!Silver is the market analyzed. After respecting the W +FVG, a bullish BOS followed. The D1 shows another +FVG was formed, a bullish indication. I am looking for the D1 +FVG to be tested before price heads higher. It would be a great POI to long from. If you like the video, give a thumbs up and subscribe! And thanks! May profits be upon you. Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX_MINI:SIL1!Long
by RT_Money
XAUUSD CPI day! lets deep dive ... good evening gold gang! hope you're all well and had a great day! .. i would have loved the buys up but i just couldnt get an entry so the sells had to do from the top zone down to the newly formed liquidity .. lovely price currently still respecting 4h trend to the upside. I have an important daily level where the trend meets to take buys from in london, only problem is the no wick candle below it which can be a liquidity target no sells confirmation until all trend is broken below .. im still bullish so im predicting a bullish CPI .. i may change my mind as price unfolds in asia and london lets do what we always do, turn up in session and take highly probable trades follow, boost and like if you want more of this content from me catch you in london Tommy boi COME ON ENGLAND!!!!!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tommyXAU
Mastering HTF Analysis: DXY & EURUSD Weekly to Monthly Forecast!Greetings, traders, and welcome back to today's video! In this session, we'll be conducting a higher timeframe outlook on the DXY and EURUSD. Our goal is to understand what we can anticipate in this week's and this month's trading sessions. This video will also provide insight into how I approach my trading, focusing on different logs for various aspects of my analysis: Higher Timeframe Analysis : Monthly, weekly, and daily analysis conducted at the beginning of each week. (Primary Focus In Todays Video) Interest Rate Logs: Tracking changes and impacts of interest rates. Intraday Trading Layouts: Used daily to keep my charts organized and clutter-free. Analyzing these layouts separately at different times helps me stay organized and maintain a clear perspective. Let's discuss the market structure. Markets are driven by smart money, also known as the banks. They are the liquidity providers, while we are the spectators. Central banks own the currencies and set their trading values. Understanding that markets are liquidity-based—it's us against the banks—we see that banks move prices toward liquidity to pair and book against it. So, where does the most liquidity reside? The higher timeframes. The higher the timeframe, the larger the sponsorship. That's why we'll be analyzing the higher timeframes today to gain a strategic edge. Let's dive into the charts and uncover these crucial insights together. Premium & Discount Price Delivery in Institutional Trading: If you have any questions, please leave them in the comments section below. Happy Trading, The_Architect
by The_Archi-tect
USDJPY towards 154 or 166?Current Situation USD/JPY is holding at elevated levels near 161.00 during Asian trading on Tuesday. The high-risk sentiment, driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut, contributes to the pair's latest increase. All eyes are on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony for further indications on monetary policy. Recent Data and Technical Indicators Daily Chart: On Wednesday, July 3, USD/JPY posted a bearish Hanging Man candlestick pattern, followed by a bearish down day, confirming the bearish sentiment. Support and Resistance: Support: The pair found support at the April 29 high of 160.32, forming a price gap indicating potential exhaustion. Resistance: It is currently trading against resistance from the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Key Factors Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Speculation about a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has increased, with the CME’s FedWatch tool indicating a 76.2% probability, up from 65.5% the previous week. Powell’s Testimony: Market participants are awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the US Congress for further insights into future policy direction. Japanese Yen Weakness: The JPY is extending losses due to foreign asset purchases by Japanese individuals under the Nippon Individual Savings Account (NISA) program and concerns over potential intervention by Japanese authorities in the FX markets. US Treasury Yields: Rising speculation about a Fed rate cut is putting pressure on US Treasury yields, which could limit the upside for the US Dollar. Market Sentiment and Projections Short-term Trend: USD/JPY remains in a short-term downtrend. However, given the exhaustion gap and the strong medium to long-term uptrend, there is a risk the pair could continue recovering. Potential Targets: Upside: If the pair surpasses 161.40, it would be a bullish signal, with further gains potentially reaching 162.90. Downside: A break below 160.20 would confirm further downside towards a probable target of 158.50.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
XAUUSD **Critical area for gold. **look for this pattern ! whats up gold gang!! a great day on the charts today catching the forecast sells down to the target and the last level for gold to be bullish. This is a critical level for gold now as if it breaks this level at 2346 and closes below on the 4h .. the bias is bearish. If we react here and we find the reversal pattern shown on the chart ... then we remain bullish and i want to buy up to 2412 area this week. that reversal pattern occurs everywhere on the chart, if you can learn it, youll catch reversals much easier. Lets let asian session let us know where we're going! catch you in london tommy
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tommyXAU
3
XAUUSD Next moves for gold this weekgood morning gold gang and happy sunday! hope you're resting and doing a bit of backtesting NFP! wow it whipsawed which we dont normally see ... took my buys out instantly but then i got the continuation to break even thankfully Price continuing with the trend now leaving some holes to be filled .. i like to see the NFP candle filled in the next week so a move down to take lower buys would be great! .. sells only when confirmation is present. Above the current zone is nice clean traffic with imbalance so expect a strong move up to the top engulfing marked on the chart as always we react to price at the time so make sure you follow along for updates! catch you tomorrow morning in london session tommy
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tommyXAU
6
XAUUSD Heading Towards $2440?Current Situation The gold price (XAU/USD) registered a decline during the Asian session on Monday, following the news that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) suspended gold purchases for the second consecutive month. This decision negatively impacted the gold price as China is the world's largest consumer of this precious metal. Recent Data Current Price: Gold has experienced a decline, stabilizing below the $2,400 threshold. Key Factors PBoC Purchases: The PBoC maintained its gold stock at 72.80 million troy ounces in June, contributing to the decrease in gold demand. US Interest Rates: The possibility of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the third quarter could support the gold price. Political Situation in France: Political uncertainty in France might increase the demand for safe-haven assets like gold. US Treasury Yields: A slight recovery in US Treasury yields makes gold less attractive as an alternative asset. Technical Forecast Resistances: $2,400 (psychological level) $2,450 (all-time high) Supports: $2,330-$2,340 Outlook In the short term, if buyers regain strength, the gold price could retest the six-week high of $2,393, with a potential break above the $2,400 threshold opening the path towards the all-time high of $2,450. However, a further decline could lead the price to challenge Friday’s low of $2,352, with a possible drop to the support zone at $2,340.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD Heading towards 1.095?Current Situation EUR/USD has shown signs of losing traction but remains above the 1.0800 level after peaking above 1.0840, its highest in three weeks. Despite the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increasing more than expected in June, downward revisions for May and April have prevented the USD from gaining strength. Technical Indicators Relative Strength Index (RSI): On the 4-hour chart, RSI has risen above 70, indicating that EUR/USD is technically overbought. However, this overbought condition does not necessarily signal an imminent drop, as long as key support levels hold. Support Levels: The 1.0800 level, which coincides with the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), is a crucial support. A drop below this level could see the next supports at 1.0760 and 1.0730-1.0740. Resistance Levels: On the upside, the 1.0840 level (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) serves as interim resistance, followed by the psychological level of 1.0900. Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment Nonfarm Payrolls: The US NFP report exceeded expectations with a rise to 206K, higher than the forecasted 190K, but revisions for previous months and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1% have tempered the positive impact. Unemployment Rate: Increased to 4.1%, the highest since November 2021, slightly higher than the expected 4.0%. Average Hourly Earnings: Growth slowed to 3.9% YoY, matching expectations but down from the previous 4.1%. Market Expectations Fed Policy: The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 25% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave the policy rate unchanged in September. Weak job data could push the USD down further, as markets may price in a September rate cut. Conversely, stronger-than-expected NFP data could lead to reassessments regarding the timing of the Fed’s policy adjustments, potentially triggering a downward correction in EUR/USD. Upcoming Economic Events Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Appearance: Traders will look for insights on monetary policy direction. EU and US Inflation Data: Final inflation figures will be released on Thursday, which could impact EUR/USD movements. German Retail Sales and US PPI: Scheduled for next Friday, these data points will provide additional market cues.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
4
ICT Breaker & Mitigation Blocks EXPLAINEDToday, we’re diving into two powerful concepts from ICT’s toolkit that can give you an edge in your trading: Breaker Blocks and Mitigation Blocks. There are one of my favourite PD Arrays to trade, especially the Breaker Block. I’m going to explain how I interpret them and how I incorporate them into my trading. Stay tuned all the way to the end because I’m going to drop some gold nuggets along the way" Ok, so first of all let’s go through what both these PD Arrays look like and what differentiates them, because they are relatively similar and how they are used is practically the same. On the left we have a Breaker Block and on the right a Mitigation Block. They both are reversal profiles on the timeframe you are seeing them on, and they both break market structure as you can see here. The actual zone to take trade from, or even an entry from, in the instance of this bearish example is the nearest down candle or series of down candles after price makes a lower low. When price pulls back to this area, one could plan or take a trade. The defining difference is that a Breaker raids liquidity on its respective timeframes by making a higher high or lower low before reversing, whilst a Mitigation Block does not do that. For this reason, a Breaker is always a higher probability PD Array to trade off from. As you should know by now if you are already learning about PD Arrays such as these is that the market moves from one area to liquidity to another. If you don’t even know what liquidity is, stop this video and educate yourself about that first or you will just be doing yourself a disservice. Alright, so let’s go see some real examples on the chart. Later on I’ll give you a simple mechanical way to trade them, as well as a the discretionary approach which I use. And of course, some tips on how to increase the probability of your setups.
Education
by Road_2_Funded
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST June 8-12th Part 2: FX PairsThis is Part 2 of the Weekly Forex Forecast. In this video, we will cover: USD Index, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, NZD, CHF, JPY Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME:6S1!
by RT_Money
2
My Bullish Idea For USOIL Trade - Here is Why am Buying USOILFOREXCOM:USOIL Here is why am bullish on USOIL. 1. The daily time frame structure is extremely bullish. 2. The 4hour is also bullish. 3. The 1hour chart structure is extremely bullish such that there is no reason to go short. The orderflow on 1hour is very bullish, price is respecting bullish PD Arrays like Fair value Gaps (FVG), Bullish Orderblocks, bullish breaker etc. My entry, target and stop loss are all on the chart. I hope this inspires you. Drop your idea in the comment section.
FOREXCOM:USOILLong
by Elijahenoch7