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Trading AUDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 24/07/2024Last week concluded positively, with three trades taken and two big wins on EURUSD. This success has heightened our anticipation for the opportunities this week may present. We began our trading day at 8:25 EST by marking the zones for the Judas Swing strategy. This is a fundamental part of the checklist and cannot be skipped. The next step on the checklist is to wait for a sweep on either side of the zone, which will assist in establishing a bias for the trading session. After 25 minutes, the high of the zone was swept, indicating that we should look for potential selling opportunities during this trading session. Although we have a bias for the trading session, we do not rush into every selling opportunity. Instead, we wait for a Break of Structure (BOS) on the sell side. The price leg that establishes this BOS should leave behind a Fair Value Gap (FVG), and price must retrace into this FVG before we consider executing a trade using this strategy. The next five-minute candle entered the Fair Value Gap, indicating that we could execute our trade at the candle's close since we had met all the checklist criteria. After executing the trade, price remained in a deep drawdown, which can be unsettling for many traders who do not manage their risk adequately. Additionally, traders who do not backtest their trading strategy thoroughly often struggle to adhere to their plan in these situations. However, this was not an issue for us, as we were aware that our strategy has approximately a 50% win rate, indicating that losses are part of the process. Therefore, we only risked 1% of our trading account on the trade, aiming for a 2% return. Price eventually reversed and started moving in our intended direction. We remained unperturbed by the duration of the trade, as our strategy data indicates an average trade duration of 8 hours and 5 minutes. Now all we need to do is be patient and let the trade run. We patiently waited, and our persistence paid off when our target was finally reached, securing a 2% gain on the trade where we had risked 1%
by CleoFinance
GBP/USD towards 1.277 before reaching 1.31Current Context The GBP/USD pair settled at 1.2895 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The increasing possibility that the Bank of England (BoE) might start cutting interest rates in August has weakened the British Pound. In the absence of significant economic data releases from the UK, the GBP/USD pair will be influenced by the US Dollar (USD). Support and Resistance Levels Support Levels: 1.2875-1.2870: This range is defined by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest uptrend. 1.2830: Level corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci retracement. 1.2800: Psychological and static level. Resistance Levels: 1.2900: Psychological and static level. 1.2940-1.2950: Range defined by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Economic Data Influence UK Data: The S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI for the UK improved to 52.7 in the flash estimate for July from 52.3 in June, indicating ongoing expansion in private sector business activity. However, statements from Chris Williamson of S&P Global Market Intelligence highlight caution among policymakers in changing monetary policy due to inflationary pressures and additional costs from shipping delays and rising freight prices. The risk-averse market context limits the ability of GBP/USD to regain ground despite positive PMI data. US Data: S&P Global will release the July PMI data for the United States. If either the Manufacturing or Services PMI unexpectedly falls below 50, the US Dollar could maintain its strength, further capping the upside potential for GBP/USD. Market Sentiment The risk-averse market climate is negatively impacting GBP/USD. At the time of writing, the UK's FTSE 100 Index is down nearly 0.5%, and US stock index futures are down between 0.5% and 0.9%. This risk-averse sentiment supports the strength of the US Dollar and exerts bearish pressure on GBP/USD.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST July 22-26th: OIL INDICES GOLD SILVERThis is Part 1 of the Weekly Forex Forecast JuLY 22 - 26th In this video, we will cover: S&P500 NASDAQ DOW GOLD SILVER US OIL UK OIL Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX_MINI:SIL1!
by RT_Money
1
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST July 22-26th: EUR GBP AUD NZD CAD CHFThis is Part 2 of the Weekly Forex Forecast for July 22-26th. In this video, we will cover: USD Index, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY ... and BitCoin Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by RT_Money
Oil Prices Plunge Amid Global UncertaintyCurrent Price Movement: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on the NYMEX have extended their downside, trading below $78.00. This decline is primarily driven by concerns over China's economic outlook and political uncertainty in the United States. Factors Influencing the Oil Price: China’s Economic Concerns: The People's Bank of China (PBoC) unexpectedly reduced its Loan Prime Rate by 10 basis points to 3.35% (one-year) and 3.85% (five-year). This rate cut follows weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP growth of 0.7%, below estimates of 1.1% and previous figures of 1.5%. As the world's largest oil importer, China’s economic slowdown raises concerns about future oil demand, exerting downward pressure on prices. Supply Outlook: Morgan Stanley forecasts an increase in oil supply by 2.5 million barrels per day by 2025 from OPEC and non-OPEC producers. The anticipated supply growth exceeds demand growth projections, contributing to the easing of tight market fears and further weakening oil prices. US Political Uncertainty: The potential nomination of Kamala Harris as the Democratic leader and speculation about Donald Trump’s potential victory in the upcoming presidential election have created political uncertainty. Trump’s promise to increase US oil production if elected could lead to a future increase in supply, adding downward pressure on oil prices. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has edged lower amidst this political uncertainty, affecting oil prices inversely. Global Economic Indicators: Preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data from various nations are expected to provide insights into the global demand outlook, which will further influence oil prices. Canadian Dollar (CAD) Dynamics: The USD/CAD pair has risen to near 1.3750, influenced by the sharp correction in oil prices. Canada, being a leading oil supplier to the US, sees its currency affected by oil price movements. The weakening CAD amidst declining oil prices reflects this relationship. Expectations of the Bank of Canada (BoC) cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% due to easing price pressures and a cooling labor market also impact the CAD. US Economic Data: The trajectory of the US Dollar will be influenced by upcoming US economic data, providing clues about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Political developments, such as the withdrawal of Joe Biden's re-election bid, have added to the uncertainty, impacting the DXY and, consequently, oil prices.
TVC:USOILShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBPUSD: Anticipating Bullish Momentum Towards Key ObjectivesGreetings Traders, Current Market Analysis: At the moment on GBPUSD, I am anticipating a bullish draw targeting key objectives. The primary focus is on the engineered trendline liquidity, followed by the Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG). Key Observations: Trendline Liquidity: The first objective is the engineered trendline liquidity, which is expected to contain a significant amount of buy stops. This area provides an opportunity to either scale out of positions or hold them to reach the next target. Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG): The second objective is the Daily FVG, which serves as a key area of interest for this bullish draw. Trading Strategy: Current Position: I am already in a buy position taken earlier. Potential Entry Point: There is another potential point of interest for considering long positions, as indicated on the chart above. This aligns with one of my entry models. NOTE: Please ensure to further investigate this information before making any trading decisions. NOTE: The possibility of price also taking out the sell stops before continuing higher. All of this needs to be consider in your trading, also the possibility of my bias being wrong. Therefore, further investigate this idea. Refer :https://www.tradingview.com/x/FUE5vKZd/ Target Levels: Engineered Trendline Liquidity: The primary target to observe for scaling out or holding positions. Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG): The secondary target, serving as a significant area for the bullish draw. Conclusion: By understanding the current bullish institutional order flow and identifying key liquidity zones, we can effectively anticipate and execute trades on GBPUSD. The engineered trendline liquidity and Daily FVG provide strategic targets, guiding our outlook towards continued bullish momentum. Happy Trading, The_Architect
Long
by The_Archi-tect
1
EUR/USD: will it reach the level of 1.11?EUR/USD stays below 1.0900: The pair has defended gains in a context of a weak US Dollar (USD), despite risk aversion, which has supported the EUR/USD exchange rate. Focus on Political and Macroeconomic Data: Attention remains on US political updates and mid-tier economic data from both the EU and the US for fresh trading impetus. Key Technical Levels Resistances: First resistance at 1.0950. Followed by the March high at 1.0980. Psychological level at 1.1000. Supports: June low at 1.0668. May low at 1.0650. 2024 annual low at 1.0600. Fundamental Factors Factors Affecting the US Dollar: The USD regained momentum on Thursday, pushing the USD Index (DXY) above the 104.00 level, thanks to a rebound in US yields. Prospects of Fed rate cuts, with the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicating a nearly 98% probability of lower rates at the September 18 meeting and another cut expected in December. Factors Affecting the Euro: The ECB maintained a dovish stance at Thursday's meeting, with a slight uptick in German 10-year Bund yields. Christine Lagarde highlighted expectations of a recovery supported by consumption, with a resilient labor market and high domestic inflation. The ECB projects that the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) will reach the target in the second half of 2025. Monetary Policy Outlook: Ongoing debate about how many times the Fed will cut rates this year, despite the current projection of a single cut. Prospects of Fed rate cuts occasionally support EUR/USD, reducing the gap between the Fed's and the ECB's monetary policies. Outlook and Prospects Short-Term Prospects: The trading dynamics for the EUR/USD pair will likely be influenced by upcoming Fed speeches and economic updates from both the US and the Eurozone. The loss of bullish momentum indicated by the 4-hour chart suggests caution, but defending key levels like the 200-SMA and the indicated supports could provide further bullish impetus. Medium-Long Term Prospects: If the EUR/USD convincingly surpasses the 200-SMA, further gains may be on the horizon. However, failure to do so could lead to a test of lower support levels.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Power of 3 - ICT Concept ExplainedIn this video I cover the topic of Power of 3 or otherwise known was PO3. This concept is also the same as AMD, which is Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution. PO3 is the basis in which Smart Money approaches the market. As we have covered before, liquidity is the lifeblood of the market. To maximize efficiency for Smart Money, liquidity is engineered for the purpose of trapping uninformed money on the wrong side of the market and assuming the counter-party to their trades. At the open of a candle, Smart Money is accumulating positions, usually in some sort of range. The next stage is the manipulation, where price makes a fast run towards liquidity, usually in the opposite direction of where price is intended to go, and then reversing rapidly. The final stage is distribution, where Smart Money is offloading their positions above or below the marketplace depending on whether it is a buy or sell program. The whole purpose of understanding this concept is to be able to anticipate the future direction of price, and to ideally buy below or above the open of a candle, again depending on what type of candle it is. I show how I anticipate the PO3 in this video. - R2F
Education
by Road_2_Funded
2
4 Stages of Price Delivery (ICT Concepts)In this video I go through the 4 stages of price delivery as it pertains to ICT Concepts. Generally, the market is going through either of the following: Consolidation Expansion Retracement Reversal Price starts from a consolidation, where Smart Money accumulates their position, and then an expansion, where price is trending in a direction for the purpose of seeking liquidity and/or manipulating sentiment. From an expansionary phase, price will either retrace to re-accumulate orders and expand again, or have a complete reversal. Now, it is important to note that price is fractal, meaning the signatures you see on a lower timeframe perspective could also be seen on a higher timeframe perspective. In a singular candlestick, there can be multiple phases of price delivery happening. Once one can fit all these pieces together in regard to how market makers book price, one can have a clear insight into where price is likely going and where it likely won't go again, all with a high degree of accuracy. Thanks for watching and reading! - R2F
Education
by Road_2_Funded
2
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST JULY 15-19th: BITCOIN BUY SETUPAnalyzing BTCUSD for the upcoming week. It looks like there is evidence that price turning bullish in this market. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by RT_Money
1