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They Were 84% Short — Here's What Happened Next on GBPAUDThis is not just a simple breakout — this is what happens when data, price action, and psychology align with surgical precision. Today, we entered a long position on GBPAUD directly from a well-defined weekly demand zone. The setup was already technically solid, but what made it exceptional was the alignment of multiple institutional-grade factors: ✅ Weekly demand zone respected to the pip, with proven historical sensitivity ✅ Change of structure on the H1 chart, confirming a short-term reversal from a deeply discounted area ✅ COT data showing a clear build-up of commercial long positions on the British pound ✅ AUD net positioning deep in negative territory, with declining open interest and no signs of reversal ✅ Retail sentiment: 84% of traders short on GBPAUD according to MyFxBook → strong contrarian signal ✅ Seasonality: GBP tends to outperform AUD during May and June The result? A rapid and aggressive bullish impulse that allowed us to move the stop loss to break-even just a few hours after entry. 📌 Current trade status: ➤ Long from the demand zone ➤ SL at BE = zero risk ➤ Monitoring price action above 2.07 for potential continuation 🎯 Mid-term target zone: 2.1150–2.1300, with focus on liquidity clusters and previous inefficiencies as potential magnets. This is how you build trades that are not just reactive, but proactive — based on multiple layers of confluence and edge, not on emotions or noise.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GOLD - Smart Money Selling, Retail Chasing Longs📉 Technical Context: Price has reacted precisely to the 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone between 3,386–3,442 USD, aligning with a clear weekly supply zone and imbalance. The current market structure suggests a potential lower high, with the first target around 3,060 USD, and the second near 2,880–2,900 USD demand. 🧠 COT Report (as of April 29, 2025): Non-Commercials (speculators) cut 18,519 long contracts, signaling waning bullish conviction. Commercials (hedgers) increased shorts by +9,848 contracts, maintaining a bearish contrarian stance. 📊 Retail Sentiment (MyFxBook): 65% of retail traders are short from 3,062, while 35% are long from 3,184 — ideal environment for a bull trap before reversal. 📅 Seasonality (Market Bulls): May is historically weak: 10Y: -9.98% 5Y: -12.21% Strength historically returns in June/July → a correction before continuation is likely. ✅ Conclusion: Technical structure, macro context, and positioning all align for a high-probability short. 📍 Entry Zone: 3,420–3,440 🔒 Stop: Above ATH (3,500) 🎯 Targets: TP1: 3,060 TP2: 2,900
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
A 3-Step Process For Analytical SuccessIn this video I go through the 3-step process of implementing a Bias, Narrative, and Model. This process was a game-changer for me when it came to analysis, as well as taking actual trades. It considered high-probability targets, patience in waiting for traders to coming for me, and the calm of being prepared when it was time to take an entry. It filters out pointless trades, because if I don't have Bias, then I can't have a Narrative, and if I don't have a Narrative, then I don't have a Model. I use ICT concepts, but this process works equally well for most other methodologies that aren't completely mechanical and algorithmic. I give a real example of a trade I took yesterday on EURUSD where I utilized this 3-step process to frame a trade. I hope you find this video insightful and gives you more clarity in your trading! - R2F Trading
Education
by Road_2_Funded
17
The Candles Are Bullish… BUT Is a Reversal on the Horizon?Back on April 28th, we talked about the ES potentially pushing higher — and guess what? It did exactly that! 🎯 Now we find ourselves at a key crossroads. A new month is here, and with the previous monthly candle officially closed, there’s a strong case to be made for even higher prices — possibly up to the 5776 level. 📈 That said, I’ll be diving into the analysis today where I’ll also touch on some reasons why short-term selling could still show up. To be fair, the price action from April (1st–30th) hasn’t given us a lot of evidence for a major reversal, but as always, it’s our job as analysts to stay sharp and open to all possibilities — especially in today’s climate. Right now, I’m still on board the bullish train 🚂 and the charts continue to suggest upward momentum. But I’ll be watching closely for any shifts that might hint at a change. What about you? What’s your take on the current setup? Let’s get the conversation going — I’d love to hear your thoughts! Let's Keep Studying - One Candlestick At A Time!
CME_MINI:MES1!
by MarketsByLee_
NAS100USD: SMT Divergence Hints at Potential ReversalGreetings Traders, In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, although the current market structure reflects bearish institutional order flow, there are growing signs that a potential reversal may be forming. Key Observations: 1. Smart Money Technique (SMT) Divergence: We are currently observing SMT divergence—a strategy where the underlying asset (NAS100) is compared against its benchmark (US500). These indices typically maintain a 90–100% correlation. However, when this correlation breaks down, it often signals that a reversal may be imminent. In this case, while NAS100 continues to show bearish momentum, the divergence from US500 suggests the possibility of bullish interest building. 2. Institutional Support at the Rejection Block: Further confluence for a potential reversal lies in the presence of a rejection block acting as a strong institutional support level. This is a zone where smart money previously defended price, and if confirmed, it could provide an optimal entry for long positions. Trading Plan: We will monitor the rejection block for confirmation of bullish intent before entering any trades. If confirmed, the idea is to target the buy-side liquidity residing in premium pricing zones. Invalidation Level : This reversal idea will be invalidated if NAS500 breaks below its most recent swing low. Stay alert for confirmation, and always ensure the idea fits within your broader trading framework. Kind regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by The_Archi-tect
NAS100USD: Bearish Setup Builds as Price Retests Key Supply ZoneGreetings Traders, In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, we continue to observe bearish institutional order flow, and as such, our objective is to align our trading opportunities with this directional bias. Key Observations: 1. Bearish Break of Structure and Retracement: Following a clear bearish break of structure, price has retraced into a mitigation block. This zone represents an area where institutional buying previously occurred. As price trades back into it, institutions often mitigate those earlier positions and reintroduce sell-side interest—offering us an opportunity to follow their lead. 2. Confluence at the Mitigation Block: The mitigation block is further reinforced by the presence of a bearish order block, adding strength to the resistance zone. This alignment suggests the area may serve as a high-probability reversal point for bearish continuation. Liquidity Sweep Scenario: There remains a possibility that price may take out nearby buy-side liquidity (buy stops) before continuing downward. If this occurs, we will wait for confirmation before entering short positions, maintaining alignment with the overall bearish narrative. Trading Plan: Upon confirmation of rejection at the mitigation zone, we will seek to engage in short setups targeting liquidity pools in discount pricing zones. Remain patient, disciplined, and ensure each trade aligns with your strategy. Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
2
Institutions Are Loading EUR/NZDIn the current market context, EURNZD is showing a highly compelling technical and fundamental structure for both short- and medium-term opportunities. After a prolonged retracement from the March highs, the price has strongly reacted from a clearly defined weekly demand zone between 1.8712 and 1.8600. From a technical perspective, this reaction aligns with a moderate RSI divergence and a still intact macro bullish market structure, despite the corrective nature of recent weeks. However, what truly validates this setup goes beyond price action alone. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data strongly supports the long thesis. On the euro side, we observe a significant increase in commercial long positions (+14,659 contracts), signaling institutional hedging activity. At the same time, non-commercials (speculators) have been cutting their short positions, suggesting growing expectations of euro strength. On the NZD side, the picture is even more decisive: non-commercials maintain a net short position of -40,444 contracts, with a further reduction in long positions. The speculative sentiment toward the NZD is clearly bearish and shows no signs of short-term reversal. Adding to this, retail sentiment data currently shows that 59% of retail traders are short on EURNZD. From a contrarian perspective, this is particularly bullish — the crowd is selling while smart money is buying. Seasonality also supports the setup: historically, the months of May and June have been positive for the euro and negative for the NZD, adding an additional statistical layer of confluence to the trade idea. 🎯 Conclusion We may be witnessing the early stages of a new bullish leg on EURNZD. The 1.89 area represents a potential re-entry zone in the event of a retest. The medium-term target is set between 1.9300 and 1.9500. Technical structure, institutional positioning, retail sentiment, and seasonality all align in favor of a clear bullish bias in the coming weeks.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Bullish till March 26 High but open for retrace.We are at a daily -BPR at the moment. All daily candles have been bullish so far since April 22. The whole sentiment behind this has been the 90 day tariff pause. There definitely is a mix of fundamental and technical reasons for both bullish and bearish bias once we achieve this target. For this week, I would look for a long entry only if NQ retraces lower first. Otherwise would have to just watch it do its thing. Once we hit the March 26 High, I am very open for NQ to go to All time high again because that is what it historically does but I am also completely open for it to start dumping to monthly lows because it seems that the sell-side was not hit and the higher lows made on the 4H chart seem to be very low resistance targets. Not a good time to marry a bias.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by winnercircletrader
1
Did They Buy the Bottom? EUR/USD Set for Another Reversal!After an explosive bounce from the 1.0800–1.0850 demand zone, EUR/USD is now in a key structural retest around 1.1300. The COT data shows a net increase in long positions by Non-Commercials, but with the Dollar still holding structural strength in its own COT report and an RSI showing bearish divergence, this area may act as a key zone for price discovery. 📊 WHAT THE DATA SAYS: 📉 Price Action: Clear rejection from the 1.1450–1.1550 supply zone. Retest at key structure near 1.1300. 📑 COT (EURO): Net long positions up by +183 (196,388 long vs 120,591 short) = bullish tone. 📑 COT (USD): Still balanced, but Non-Commercials are reducing net longs → potential weakening. 📊 Retail Sentiment (MyFXBook): 70% retail traders are short = contrarian long bias remains. 🌱 Seasonality (May): Historically negative for EUR/USD (–0.0088) = potential downside pressure ahead. 📌 Key Levels: Resistance: 1.1450 / 1.1550 (Supply Zone) Support: 1.1300 (Structural retest) — 1.0850 (Strong demand) 📉 BASE SCENARIO: Pullback toward 1.1100–1.1050 before renewed long accumulation. 📈 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO: Break above 1.1450 could target 1.1600–1.1720 zone. 🔍 Watch out for May's seasonal inversion and extreme speculative positioning — fakeouts may precede real directional moves.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney