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Gold Quarterly Shift Analysis - April 2025This post is based on my learnings from #ICT Quarterly Shift Analysis teachings. ---------------------------------------------- Previous Analysis: In September 2024, I published my quarterly shift analysis for #Gold. Back then, I estimated a shift in the market structure for Gold on or around the US Presidential Election date. It happened exactly as outlined. I estimated Gold would make a bearish move or create a large range; it indeed created a large range and has been moving within the range since then. The top of the range is 2790.10, and the bottom of the range is 2536.60. Then I posted a new Quarterly Shift Analysis on 13 Jan 2025. I specified the time window for a shift in the market structure to happen, and price indeed delivered as outlined. I said that between the 20th and 31st of January, Gold would determine its new direction. On 30 Jan 2025, Gold created a new all-time high and closed a strong daily candle above the range described before. Gold hit and exceeded all the targets outlined in my analysis. ------------------------------------------------------- New Quarterly Shift Analysis: As we get closer to the end of April, Gold seems to be in a rush to make new highs and hit new targets. I believe that from the end of April to the 2nd of May 2025, Gold can hit $3411 and possibly $3498 or $3500. If it's too aggressive, $3582 can also be reached. Between 30 April and 02 May (NFP Announcement Date), Gold should make a new quarterly shift. The possible scenarios are as follows: 1. Continuation: Gold could make a retracement and then continue the current uptrend for the next 3–4 months. The retracement could go as deep as 3180, 3068 and 2982. The uptrend targets will be the targets mentioned above plus 3618 and 3738. 2. Enter a long-term range (My guess is this is the most likely scenario): Gold could enter a new long-term range for the next 3–4 months. The bottom of the range will be 2958, and the top of the range will be the highest high created by Gold by or before 30 April to 2nd of May. If this scenario happens, it is a good chance to look for sell opportunities near or within the top 25% level of the range and look for buy opportunities near or within the bottom 25% level of the range. 3. Bearish Move: If Gold closes a strong daily candle below 2958, then for the next 3–4 months, it could go lower towards 2832, 2790, 2728, and 2662. This scenario might not be highly likely, but in the event if it happens, it's a wonderful opportunity for long-term Gold investors to buy and hold Gold. ----------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer: This is not a signal, just an analysis for your consideration and benefit. Please combine it with your own analysis.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by DastanKarim
BTC/USD: Hero's Quest to the Boss Treasure BTC/USD: Hero's Quest to the Boss Treasure Price Action Deep Dive: BTC/USD has formed a powerful SPAWN POINT breakout on the 4H timeframe, characterized by three consecutive blue candles with minimal wicks, indicating strong buyer control Prior to the breakout, we observed a period of tight consolidation (level 15-20 grinding phase) where price was building energy for the current upward thrust The breakout volume significantly exceeds previous candle volumes, confirming legitimate player interest in this upward move Recent price structure shows higher lows and higher highs, establishing a clear uptrend path toward our target zones Current candle formation suggests momentum continuation rather than exhaustion, with minimal upper wicks indicating buyers absorbing all selling pressure Market Structure Context: The breakout has successfully cleared the previous resistance zone (ELITE LvL 2 HP: 2), transforming it into support for future pullbacks The Treasure Hunter color shift preceded this move, acting as an early warning signal for observant traders Major support trendline from previous lows remains intact, providing a "regeneration shield" for any temporary retreats Each pullback has been increasingly shallow, demonstrating growing reluctance from sellers to engage the hero's advance The most recent consolidation formed a bull flag pattern before the continuation, classic "power-up charging" price action With our Hero at Level 159 with full health and the Wizard's Journey already 53% complete, all technical indicators align for continued progress toward BOSS TREASURE around $94,000-$95,000, though we should remain vigilant for temporary pullbacks to the HEALTH POTION zone around $84,000.
ICMARKETS:BTCUSDLong
by CognitiveAlpha
GBP/USD: The Wizard's Descent from the Double Top MountainGBP/USD: The Wizard's Descent from the Double Top Mountain Technical Analysis: GBP/USD 4H chart shows a clear Double Top formation at approximately 1.3725, a critical resistance level The Treasure Hunter indicator has shifted color, signaling bearish momentum building (Hero taking damage) Our Wizard's Journey progress bar indicates we're at 50% completion of the Mountain Pass, suggesting we're at a prime reversal point Currently testing Elite Level 235 resistance zone (2345 XP), with declining XP Progress (35%) Forecast: Anticipating a significant pullback from current resistance Initial Minion Zone at 1.3200 provides first target level Watch for confirmation with HERO's Health declining from current 100% Trading Strategy: Short position opportunity forming with ELITE LvL 2 resistance rejecting price advance Stop loss placement above Double Top at 1.3750 Risk/reward favorable with multiple support levels to target Watch 4H candle closes below 1.3690 for entry confirmation Quest Status: Active - Prepare for the wizard's descent from the mountain peak!
Short
by CognitiveAlpha
USDCAD Ready to Collapse? COT Signals a Bearish Storm!🔎 1. COT Context – Canadian Dollar (CAD) Asset Managers: Consistently net short for most of the period, but since January 2025, there's been a strong recovery—net positions have become progressively less negative. By mid-April, they’re still short, but significantly less so. Leveraged Money: Also heavily short in December 2024, but showing a clear bullish reversal starting in early 2025, with net positions turning increasingly positive on CAD. ✅ Interpretation: There's been a clear sentiment shift from bearish to bullish on CAD starting late 2024. This adds downward pressure on USDCAD. 💵 2. COT Context – US Dollar Index (USD) Asset Managers: Consistently long, but reducing their net exposure since late March 2025. Leveraged Money: Opposite of CAD – heavily short in December 2024, now recovering, though without strong momentum. Positions are hovering around neutral. ⚠️ Interpretation: While CAD grows stronger, USD shows signs of indecision or profit-taking. This amplifies the bearish bias on USDCAD. 📉 3. Technical Analysis – USDCAD Current Price: 1.38369, right near a strong demand zone between 1.3700 – 1.3830, which has already been tested multiple times. The current weekly candle is forming a doji or pin bar, hinting at a potential technical bounce. Key Resistance: 1.45215 (monthly high). Key Support: 1.3700. A breakdown below this could trigger a move toward 1.3480. RSI: Neutral to slightly bearish, no major divergences observed. 🧠 Technical Outlook: If the 1.3700–1.3830 zone holds, we might see a corrective bounce toward 1.4000–1.4100. If that zone breaks, expect a bearish continuation toward 1.3580–1.3480. 📊 Trade Summary Fundamental Bias (COT): Bearish USDCAD → Strong CAD, weakening USD. Technical Bias: Neutral to bearish, potential for short-term bounce before continuation. 🧭 Trade Plan 🎯 Short on pullback toward 1.4000–1.4100 with stop above 1.4150, targeting 1.3600–1.3500. 🎯 Breakout trade below 1.3700 → Enter on daily close confirmation, target 1.3480.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GOLD: The Market Is Looking Down! Short! My dear friends, Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 3,422.40 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 3,375.96..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by FreeXauusdSignals
1
NAS100USD: Bearish Momentum Likely to Extend in NY SessionGreetings Traders! At present, NAS100USD continues to reflect clear bearish institutional order flow. This is evidenced by the consistent formation of lower lows and the way bearish arrays—such as fair value gaps and order blocks—continue to hold as effective resistance zones. Key Observations: Sustained Bearish Structure: The market has maintained a downward trajectory, with each rally being absorbed by bearish arrays. This behavior reinforces the dominance of institutional selling pressure. High Volatility Window – New York Session: With the New York session now underway, heightened volatility is expected. This presents a favorable environment for bearish continuation trades, particularly if price respects the key supply zones. Trading Strategy: Entry Consideration: I am awaiting a retracement into a key bearish array—either a fair value gap or a bearish order block. Upon confirmation of rejection from these zones, I will seek to enter short positions. Profit Targets: The primary objective will be to target liquidity pools residing at lower discount levels. These areas represent external liquidity where institutional participants are likely to complete order execution. By aligning with the prevailing bearish institutional narrative and waiting for high-probability confirmations within premium zones, we can strategically position ourselves to benefit from further downside momentum during this high-impact session. Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
2
SILVER Bearish Bias! Sell! Hello,Traders! SILVER is already making A local bearish pullback From the horizontal resistance Level of 33.20$ which is happening After a strong bullish move up Which temporarily took Silver into the Overbought territory so we are locally Bearish biased and we will be Expecting a local bearish correction Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by TopTradingSignals
1
EUR/NZD About to Explode? Traders Are Watching THIS Level!📊 General Analysis of EUR/NZD (Higher Timeframe) 1. 📌 Price Context The price had a strong bounce from a demand zone (highlighted in light blue) around 1.85. It then broke through multiple supply zones (gray and maroon) to the upside and is currently hovering near 1.91874. 🔍 Key Zones 🔵 Demand Zone (Support) Range: 1.8430 – 1.8712 This zone has been tested multiple times, with long wicks to the downside → indicating strong buying interest. A powerful bullish move originated from this area. 🔴 Supply Zone (Resistance) Current resistance: 1.9187 – 1.9450 This is where the price is currently paused → potential rejection area. Monthly upper zone (1M): 1.96 – 2.00 A strong long-term resistance. If reached, we might see profit-taking or even a reversal. 🕯️ Candles & Momentum The large green candle represents a strong bullish breakout. The weekly candle (labeled "1W") shows indecision → this could be a pause before continuation or the beginning of a pullback. 🔮 Possible Future Scenarios ✅ Bullish Scenario If the price decisively breaks above 1.9187, the next target is 1.9600 – 2.0000. ⚠️ Bearish Scenario If price gets rejected at current levels, it may fall back into the support zone 1.8712 – 1.8500, which has previously shown strength. 📈 Lower Indicator (Likely RSI or Wavetrend) Currently bouncing from an oversold area. No clear overbought signals → there’s room for more upside. 🧭 Conclusion Current trend: Bullish (especially in the short to mid term). Key levels to watch: Resistance: 1.9187 and 1.96–2.00 Support: 1.8712 and 1.85
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
AUD-CAD Free Signal! Sell! Hello,Traders! AUD-CAD shot up sharply But the pair failed to break A horizontal resistance Level of 0.8880 and we are Already seeing a local pullback Which is likely to turn into a Local correction on Monday So we can enter a short trade With the Take Profit of 0.8779 And the Stop Loss of 0.8887 Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TopTradingSignals
1