AUDCHF at Make-or-Break Zone: Smart Money Reversal or Breakdown?1. Price Action
Price is currently trading within a descending channel, with 0.5244 hovering near a key demand zone (0.5150–0.5200), where a first bullish reaction has already occurred.
The structure suggests a potential fake breakdown, with room for a rebound toward static resistances at 0.5330, and possibly 0.5450.
RSI is rising from oversold, showing signs of a potential bullish divergence.
📌 Technical bias: Waiting for confirmation of a reversal at key support.
Upside targets: 0.5330 > 0.5450.
Ideal stop-loss below 0.5160.
2. Retail Sentiment
72% of retail traders are long, with an average entry at 0.5551, now facing a 300+ pip drawdown.
This increases short-term contrarian bearish pressure, but also signals liquidity above the highs, which could be targeted before a true bullish reversal.
3. Commitment of Traders (as of June 17, 2025)
AUD – Bearish
Massive drop in both commercial longs (-60k) and shorts (-60k) suggests broad disengagement.
Non-commercials remain net short (-69k), with overall open interest declining.
CHF – Neutral to Bullish
CHF also sees declines in positioning, but commercial traders remain firmly net long (+51.7k).
Non-commercials are net short (-25.5k).
📌 COT Conclusion: AUD remains structurally weaker than CHF, but both currencies are showing signs of positioning uncertainty. This compression phase may precede a technical rebound on AUDCHF.
4. Seasonality
AUD
June historically shows modest strength on 10Y and 5Y averages.
However, 2Y data points to weakness → any rally may be short-lived or fragile.
CHF
CHF tends to be strong in June, especially on 20Y and 10Y views.
Yet, short-term (2Y) data shows end-of-month weakness, suggesting possible profit-taking ahead.
✅ Operational Outlook
Short-term bias: Long AUDCHF (corrective rebound)
Medium/long-term bias: Bearish (still in a downtrend)
Ict
Bitcoin Respecting FVG Again – Is This the Launchpad to 112K+ ?Bitcoin has once again shown strong respect for a key Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the daily timeframe, tapping into a previously identified imbalance around the $98,000 region. This area had earlier acted as a base for bullish structure, and price's return to it suggests re-accumulation by smart money rather than a breakdown. The reaction was swift, rejecting off the FVG and forming a strong bullish daily candle, implying intent for higher prices.
This move into the FVG also swept sell-side liquidity resting below a clear 4-hour equal low. This kind of liquidity grab is a textbook ICT-style move, used to trap retail shorts before a reversal. With that liquidity cleared and institutional interest likely engaged, the structure has shifted bullishly, creating a higher low and showing momentum building to the upside.
The next major upside objective lies at $111,921, which marks short-term weekly buyside liquidity. This area represents a key magnet for price — where many stop-losses and buy-side orders are likely stacked — making it a logical destination for a move upward. The projected move offers a potential 14.6% upside over the next few weeks.
If price can hold above the $106K-$108K zone, the probability increases that we’re witnessing the beginning of a broader impulsive leg toward the $112K region. However, failure to maintain bullish structure here could mean deeper accumulation is still unfolding. As always, this setup should be approached with discipline, and further confirmation should be sought using your own risk model and strategy.
GBP_USD WILL KEEP GROWING|LONG|
✅GBP_USD broke the key structure level of 1.3620
While trading in an local uptrend
Which makes me bullish biased
And I think that after the retest of the broken level is complete
A rebound and bullish continuation will follow
LONG🚀
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EUR/JPY higherPrice retraced from Weekly FVG. The retracement had high momentum down, making Fair Value Gaps on the 4H. After 3 things aligned:
1. Price made new 4H Fair Value Gap coming from the Daily Fair Value Gap
2. Price disrespected Swing High in 4H Fair Value Gap
3. Rejection off D FVG closed with perfect 2 candle rejection.
I entered the trade after I've seen the close on the daily timeframe, Stop below the 4H Fair Value Gaps.
EUR_USD BULLISH BREAKOUT|LONG|
✅EUR_USD is going up
Now and the pair made a bullish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 1.1630 and the breakout
Is confirmed so we are bullish
Biased and we will be expecting
A further bullish move up
LONG🚀
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AUD-NZD Long From Rising Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
AUD-NZD went down but
Will soon retest a rising
Support line from where
We will be expecting a
Bullish rebound and a move up
Buy!
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AUD_JPY LOCAL SHORT|
✅AUD_JPY made a retest of the
Strong horizontal resistance level of 94.800
And as you can see the pair is already
Making a local pullback from
The level which sends a clear
Bearish signal to us therefore
We will be expecting a
Further bearish correction
SHORT🔥
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EUR-CAD Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-CAD is trading in an
Uptrend and the pair made
A bullish breakout of the key
Horizontal level of 1.5936 so we
Are bullish biased and we
Will be expecting a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
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EURUSD - Bears Preparing a Bearish Shift in StructureEURUSD has been pushing higher over the past few sessions, reaching into a key liquidity zone. On the 4H chart, we’ve now seen a very clean sweep of previous swing highs, which completes the first step needed for a potential reversal. This sweep acted as a buy-side liquidity run, taking out resting orders before showing early signs of exhaustion.
Liquidity Sweep and Structural Confirmation
The sweep of the highs marked a potential turning point, but for this setup to gain validity, we need to see confirmation through structure. That confirmation would come from a decisive 4H close below the red mitigation zone. This area aligns with a small demand that previously pushed price up, so a close below would mark a clean break in bullish order flow and confirm a bearish structure shift.
Downside Expectations and Key Levels
If the structure shift is confirmed, I expect EURUSD to move lower toward the fair value gap around 1.14600 to 1.14400. This FVG could provide temporary support, and we may see some reaction there. However, due to the size of the imbalance and the overall context, price has the potential to continue lower through that level.
Interim Reactions and Minor Scenarios
There is a chance price reacts to the FVG and pulls back before continuing lower. Any bounce from this zone would likely be short-term unless it leads to a clear market structure shift back to the upside. If price fails to hold above the FVG, the deeper support zone below near 1.13800 would become the next logical target.
Trigger Point for Bearish Bias
The most important trigger for this trade is a 4H close below the red box. Without that, the bullish structure technically remains intact. Once that level is broken, I will consider the sweep and break combination a completed reversal signal, targeting the FVG and beyond.
Conclusion
This setup follows a textbook liquidity grab followed by a potential structure break. Patience is key here, as I’m waiting for confirmation before taking action. If price closes below the red zone, I’ll be actively looking for shorts targeting the 1.14600 region, with room to extend lower depending on how price reacts at the FVG.
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DAX: Move Down Expected! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DAX together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 23,509.95 Therefore, a strong bearish reaction here could determine the next move down.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 23,438.51..Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
GOLD: Local Bullish Bias! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 3,314.13 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 3,322.84 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD: Strong Growth Ahead! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding above a key level of 1.16017 So a bullish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next high. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
SILVER: Will Go Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 35.768 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 35.645..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
NZD_CAD SHORT FROM RESISTANCE|
✅NZD_CAD will soon retest a key resistance level of 0.8320
So I think that the pair will make a pullback
And go down to retest the demand level below at 0.8267
SHORT🔥
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GOLD Risky Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD made a bullish
Rebound but will soon
Hit a wide horizontal
Resistance of around 3,345$
And as we are locally bearish
Biased after the recent rising
Support breakout we will be
Expecting a bearish pullback
And a local move down
Sell!
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XAUUSD Bullish OutlookThis chart captures a highly strategic bullish setup on XAUUSD, rooted in Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and institutional trading principles. The market has performed a major liquidity sweep, dipping below previous lows to collect resting sell-side liquidity before reacting sharply from a key demand zone.
Why Bullish? The Confluences:
Liquidity Sweep:
Price manipulated below a significant structural low to trap late sellers and activate institutional orders. This move into deeper liquidity suggests the smart money is building long positions.
Extreme P.O.I. + Demand Zone:
The blue zone marks a high probability reversal area where demand outweighs supply. This zone is validated by historical reactions and refined to align with an Order Block (OB) a clear footprint of institutional accumulation.
Bullish Structure Anticipation:
After the reaction, price is expected to form a series of higher highs and higher lows, confirming bullish market structure. Multiple resistance levels are in sight, each one representing an objective for price to reach in its journey upward.
Entry Point: $3,343 – $3,330
Located inside the OB and demand zone, this is where price is likely to build a base for upward continuation.
Stop Loss: Below $3,324
TP1: $3,363 (first internal structure break)
TP2: $3,375 (mid range target)
TP3: $3,383 (structural high retest)
TP Final: $3,405 (liquidity target above EQH)
Remember confirmation is key before execution.
#GOLD 2H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
NATGAS SUPPORT AHEAD|LONG|
✅NATGAS is going down now
But a strong support level is ahead at 3.450$
Thus I am expecting a rebound
And a move up towards the target of 3.600$
LONG🚀
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AUD-CAD Will Go Down! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
AUD-CAD made a retest
Of the wide horizontal
Resistance around 0.8934
And we are already seeing a
Local bearish reaction so
We will be expecting a
Further bearish move down
Sell!
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CAD_CHF RETESTING LOWS|LONG|
✅CAD_CHF will be retesting a support level soon around 0.5830
Which is a deeps low for the pair
From where I am expecting a bullish reaction
With the price going up but we need
To wait for a reversal pattern to form
Before entering the trade, so that we
Get a higher success probability of the trade
LONG🚀
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GBP-CHF Support Ahead! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GBP-CHF is going down now
And the pair will soon hit a
Horizontal support level below
Around 1.0933 from where
We will be expecting a
Local rebound and a move up
Buy!
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US30: The Market Is Looking Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse US30 together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 43,045.6 Therefore, a strong bullish reaction here could determine the next move up.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 43,152.9.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
SILVER: Strong Bullish Sentiment! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 35.758 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 36.094 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD: Bears Are Winning! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 1.16242 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️