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USOIL: Local Bearish Bias! Short! My dear friends, Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 68.669 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 67.925..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
FX:USOILShort
by FreeXauusdSignals
1
Soybeans Loading a Bounce? Demand Zone + COT1. Price Action & Technical Structure Price has bounced off a strong daily demand zone (1011–969). Today’s daily candle shows a clear rejection wick from the low, and RSI is signaling a potential reversal. The market is trading inside a falling channel, currently near the lower boundary — setting up a possible breakout move. Technical Targets: • First upside target: 1039–1049 Invalidation: daily close below 990, which would confirm structural breakdown. 2. COT Report – Soybeans Futures (as of July 9, 2025) • Non-Commercials:  +11,539 spreads | +7,017 shorts | –7,520 longs → Slight bearish pressure, though spreads suggest growing speculative complexity. • Commercials:  +7,876 longs | –9,084 shorts → Moderate commercial bullish bias. • Open Interest:  +8,076 contracts → Market activity increasing. Overall COT positioning is neutral to slightly bullish, with growing signs of accumulation around the 1000 level. 3. Seasonality – MarketBulls Historically, July is one of the weakest months for Soybeans: • –44.82 (20Y avg) • –36.86 (15Y avg) • –34.74 (10Y avg) However, early August shows signs of seasonal recovery, and price action is already diverging from typical seasonal behavior. This makes a deeper breakdown less likely — we could be nearing the end of the seasonal weakness. Operational Takeaway Current Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish Confluence of signals supports the idea of a technical rebound: ✅ Bullish reaction candle in demand ✅ Fibonacci support + lower trendline touch ✅ COT data stabilizing with rising open interest ✅ Seasonal weakness possibly exhausted
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
EUR/USD Reversal Ahead? COT + DXY Strength Signal Price has broken below the ascending channel that started in mid-May. The current candle is rejecting the weekly supply zone (1.17566–1.18319), leaving a significant upper wick. Daily RSI is losing strength but has not yet reached extreme levels. A key daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) lies between 1.1600 and 1.1480, with the first potential downside target at 1.14802, which aligns with support and the FVG zone. A deeper bearish continuation could push price towards 1.1350, but only if the FVG lows are clearly broken. 📊 COT Data (CME - Euro FX & USD Index) Euro FX Net long: +15,334 Commercials increased both longs (+13,550) and shorts (+9,913) → mild divergence. Non-Commercials (speculators) increased shorts (+4,786) more than longs (+1,188) → speculative bias tilting bearish. USD Index Strong net long accumulation across all trader types: +4,597 net. Non-Commercials added +3,590 longs, with only a minor increase in shorts. → USD strength continues, reinforcing potential weakness in EUR/USD. 🧠 Retail Sentiment 67% of retail traders are short EUR/USD → typically a contrarian bullish signal. However, the price is already showing distribution, not accumulation, so we may see price push lower first to trap remaining retail longs, invalidating the contrarian signal in the short term. 📅 Seasonality July is historically bullish, especially on the 2Y (+0.0142) and 10Y (+0.0106) averages. However, the 15Y and 20Y averages show a much more moderate performance (+0.007 / +0.0025). Based on current price action, the seasonal rally may have already played out with the run-up to 1.1830. A correction now seems likely, even if the broader macro remains supportive mid-term. 🧩 Conclusion Despite historically bullish seasonality for July, both price action and COT data indicate distribution with early signs of reversal. Retail sentiment is too skewed short for a major breakdown just yet, but the technicals support a short-term pullback toward more balanced levels. USD strength from COT and DXY structure reinforces a corrective short bias for now.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
11
EURAUD Breakdown Incoming? Price + COT + Seasonality🧠 MACRO & INSTITUTIONAL FLOWS (COT) EURO (EUR) Strong increase in net long positions by non-commercials: +16,146 Commercials also added long exposure: +25,799 Bias: moderately bullish AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (AUD) Non-commercials remain heavily net short (long/short ratio: 15% vs 63.6%) Slight increase in commercial longs: +2,629 Bias: still bearish, but showing early signs of positioning exhaustion COT Conclusion: EUR remains strong, AUD remains weak — but the recent extension calls for caution on fresh EURAUD longs. 📊 SEASONALITY (JULY) EUR shows historically positive July performance across 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y averages AUD also shows mild strength, but less consistent 🔎 Net differential: No strong seasonal edge on EURAUD in July 📈 RETAIL SENTIMENT 54% of retail traders are short EURAUD, 46% long Slight contrarian bullish bias, but not extreme yet → neutral to slightly long 📉 TECHNICAL STRUCTURE – MULTI-TIMEFRAME 1. Weekly Chart Strong bearish engulfing candle after 4 weeks of upside RSI dropped below 50 → clear momentum shift 1.7960–1.8100 is now a liquidity zone that’s been tapped 2. Daily Chart Confirmed break of the ascending channel formed since May Price reacted from demand zone around 1.7460–1.7720, signaling potential pullback Watch for rejection around 1.7910 (50% body of the weekly engulfing candle) 3. Entry Setup Key area for short entries: 1.7910–1.7940 This zone aligns with: ✅ Former support now turned resistance ✅ Inside a valid bearish order block ✅ Ideal retracement level (50% engulfing body) 🎯 OPERATIONAL CONCLUSION While the macro context still favors a stronger EUR against AUD, price action tells another story. The weekly engulfing candle is a strong technical reversal signal, and the daily structure confirms the break. → Shorting the pullback into 1.7910–1.7940 could offer an excellent R/R trade setup. Bias: Short-term bearish – Targeting 1.7700, 1.7550, and potentially 1.7315 Invalidation: Daily close above 1.8040
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
8