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GOLDMASTER1| USD/JPY 15MIN ANALYSIS USD/JPY 15M ANALYSIS – SMC PERSPECTIVE Price is currently trading around 142.108, just above a marked Bullish Order Block. We’ve identified equal lows (EQL), indicating potential liquidity resting below, but price has yet to break structure lower. The bullish OB zone (141.784 - 141.600) may act as a strong demand area. If price respects this level, a potential bullish move could occur towards the Bearish Order Block near 142.419. The projected path shows a retracement towards the supply zone (Bearish OB), where we can anticipate a potential reaction or rejection. TRADE IDEA: Monitor bullish OB for confirmations (e.g., engulfing candles or FVG on lower timeframe). Potential TP near 142.300 - 142.419 (before or at Bearish OB). Bias: Bullish short-term toward bearish OB, then reassess for possible reversal. GOLDMASTER1---
Short
by Goldmasters1
Trading AUDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 15/04/2025Tuesday's price action on FX:AUDUSD , we got a textbook Judas Swing play and for those still getting used to spotting these setups in real-time, let’s break this one down and talk through what happened and more importantly, why it happened. Going into the session open, we had a relatively tight consolidation, with the 00:00 - 08:30est range acting as a container for liquidity. Price had built up liquidity at the high and low of the zone. Whichever side gets swept first will determine our directional bias for the session Just after the session began, we saw price aggressively push up taking out the buy side liquidity resting above those early highs. This is what is called the "Judas move", a false breakout meant to trap breakout buyers and entice liquidity into the market. This move is not random. It’s designed to induce traders into the wrong side of the market before the real direction reveals itself As soon as that liquidity grab was complete, we noticed price begin to stall and form a shift in market structure. This is critical. Once you see a break of structure to the downside, followed by a lower high into a FVG, that’s your confirmation that the real move, the sell-off is in play. We then saw clean displacement to the downside, confirming the manipulation phase was over Now we wait for a retracement into the Fair Value Gap (FVG). We'll only look to execute a trade once a candle enters the FVG and closes. After a few minutes of waiting, price finally retraced into the FVG, giving us the green light to execute the trade. Entry: 0.63749 Stop loss: 0.63849 Take profit: 0.63549 This FX:AUDUSD trade gave us a smooth ride with minimal drawdown. Right after entry price moved swiftly into profit. Although there was a brief retrace back to our entry point, it quickly corrected, and we were back in the green. With just a 1% risk, the trade delivered a solid 2% return all within 1 hour and 20 minutes This setup is an excellent example of why you don’t want to chase early session breakouts blindly. The Judas Swing strategy teaches us to look for the trap, wait for confirmation, and then trade in alignment with the real intention behind price. Beginners often get caught up in the initial move, thinking it’s the real trend. But if you can slow down, understand the time of day, the draw on liquidity, and the reaction around key highs/lows, you’ll start to see how often price manipulates before delivering.
by CleoFinance
Gold Quarterly Shift Analysis - April 2025This post is based on my learnings from #ICT Quarterly Shift Analysis teachings. ---------------------------------------------- Previous Analysis: In September 2024, I published my quarterly shift analysis for #Gold. Back then, I estimated a shift in the market structure for Gold on or around the US Presidential Election date. It happened exactly as outlined. I estimated Gold would make a bearish move or create a large range; it indeed created a large range and has been moving within the range since then. The top of the range is 2790.10, and the bottom of the range is 2536.60. Then I posted a new Quarterly Shift Analysis on 13 Jan 2025. I specified the time window for a shift in the market structure to happen, and price indeed delivered as outlined. I said that between the 20th and 31st of January, Gold would determine its new direction. On 30 Jan 2025, Gold created a new all-time high and closed a strong daily candle above the range described before. Gold hit and exceeded all the targets outlined in my analysis. ------------------------------------------------------- New Quarterly Shift Analysis: As we get closer to the end of April, Gold seems to be in a rush to make new highs and hit new targets. I believe that from the end of April to the 2nd of May 2025, Gold can hit $3411 and possibly $3498 or $3500. If it's too aggressive, $3582 can also be reached. Between 30 April and 02 May (NFP Announcement Date), Gold should make a new quarterly shift. The possible scenarios are as follows: 1. Continuation: Gold could make a retracement and then continue the current uptrend for the next 3–4 months. The retracement could go as deep as 3180, 3068 and 2982. The uptrend targets will be the targets mentioned above plus 3618 and 3738. 2. Enter a long-term range (My guess is this is the most likely scenario): Gold could enter a new long-term range for the next 3–4 months. The bottom of the range will be 2958, and the top of the range will be the highest high created by Gold by or before 30 April to 2nd of May. If this scenario happens, it is a good chance to look for sell opportunities near or within the top 25% level of the range and look for buy opportunities near or within the bottom 25% level of the range. 3. Bearish Move: If Gold closes a strong daily candle below 2958, then for the next 3–4 months, it could go lower towards 2832, 2790, 2728, and 2662. This scenario might not be highly likely, but in the event if it happens, it's a wonderful opportunity for long-term Gold investors to buy and hold Gold. ----------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer: This is not a signal, just an analysis for your consideration and benefit. Please combine it with your own analysis.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by DastanKarim
XAUUSD market is currently exhibiting a high-probability Setup!Gold Market Analysis (XAUUSD) : The XAUUSD market is currently exhibiting a high-probability trading setup, conforming to the IRL to ERL model, a signature pattern in the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology. This model suggests a strong potential for bullish momentum. Key Observations: 1. The market is anticipated to revisit the downside, targeting the Monday low liquidity pool. 2. A potential fill of the 1D marked Fair Value Gap (FVG) is expected, which could provide a crucial confirmation signal. 3. Upon confirmation, a pump towards the ERL (External Range Liquidity) level is anticipated, driven by buying interest. Trading Strategy: We're adopting a patient approach, waiting for the market to provide a clear confirmation signal before entering a trade. By monitoring the market's behavior and waiting for the setup to unfold, we aim to capitalize on the potential bullish momentum. Let's closely monitor the market's movement and adjust our strategy accordingly.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Peter_Wade
GBPAUD. Can we expect price to retrace higher?Good morning traders, we back with another idea on GBPAUD, yesterday I entered some positions and since I swing all my trades to TP/SL. Today morning following the AUD news, my stops were triggered but only due to ignorance because on Sunday as I was looking at it my plan was to enter today after the 8 am news on GBP. But it’s another lesson for the journal, on the daily TF this pair is ready to move lower but on this 1 hour we can see that price swept the liquidity below and failed to close below the lows, proving that price will move higher for our hourly high in purple. But since I’ve hit my daily loss, I’ll just monitor and study this setup to avoid today’s loss.
Long
by FxPipMaster_TebohoMatla
Bitcoin is not going back to 100k anytime soon!!Good day traders, back against it with this bitcoin idea I’m currently on back on what price has shown us in recent weeks. 1W- Here price is still very much bearish as we can see that the market is in an expansion meaning any idea of price moving higher is what we all wish for but price does not care so overall here we bearish and need to be ready alert to price always wanting to move higher by taking recent highs. 4H- Now here we can see price shot higher for the liquidity that was resting above the recent broken highs, keeping in mind that our weekly bias is still bearish we than wanna see a shift in structure on the 1 hour TF to give us our first confirmation of many confirmations we use to come at a decision. After price respects our idea than we wanna see price go take the equal lows(Sellside liquidity) below. Now I wanna make this bold prediction, and it’s my opinion by the way it’s not a fact or anything like that right. In my opinion I don’t think bitcoin will see 100k for the rest of 2025. And my prediction is based on my analysis only!!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by FxPipMaster_TebohoMatla
Examples of invalid setups | Judas Swing Strategy 07/04/2025As traders, it's crucial to spend time in the lab backtesting your strategy and exploring ways to optimize it for better performance in live markets. You’ll start to notice recurring patterns, some that work in your favor, and others that consistently lead to unnecessary losses. It might take time to spot these patterns and even longer to refine them to fit your trading system, but going through this process is what helps you evolve. In the long run, this is what you need to do to become a better trader. We spent a considerable amount of time refining our entry technique for the Judas Swing strategy after noticing a recurring issue where entering with a limit order sometimes gets us stopped out on the very same candle. After testing a few alternative entry methods and making some key adjustments, we finally found an approach that worked consistently for us. On Monday, April 7th, 2025, this refinement proved its worth by saving us from two potentially painful losses. In this post, we’ll walk you through exactly what happened and how the improved entry made all the difference. We got to our trading desks ready to scout for setups and were drawn to promising setups forming on both FX:AUDUSD and $NZDUSD. This was exciting since the previous week offered no solid trading opportunities. As price swept the liquidity resting above the highs of the zone our bias quickly shifted toward potential selling setups for the session. But before taking any trade, we always ensure every item on our entry checklist is met. Here’s what we look for: 1. A break of structure to the sell side 2. The formation of a Fair Value Gap (FVG) 3. A retracement into the FVG 4. Entry only after a confirmed candle close With the first two requirements on our checklist confirmed, all that remained were the final two and at this stage, patience is key. As price began retracing toward the FVG on both FX:AUDUSD and OANDA:NZDUSD , things got interesting. Price came into the Fair Value Gap on both pairs, checking off the third requirement. Now, all that was left was to wait for the current candle to close. But that’s where things will be clear to you now. Had we jumped in early with a limit order, we would’ve been stopped out on the same candle. This moment served as a perfect reminder of why we now wait for a confirmed candle close before taking any trade. It’s this extra step that helps us avoid unnecessary losses and stick to high-quality setups. This entry technique like any other, comes with its own set of pros and cons. At times a limit order might offer a more favorable entry price compared to waiting for a candle close and that can influence both your stop-loss and take-profit placements. On the flip side, there are also instances where waiting for the candle close gives you a better entry than the limit order would have. That’s why it’s so important to backtest. Your job as a trader is to put in the time to study and test what works best for your system. We chose this candle close entry method because we did the work. After extensive backtesting and data analysis, we found this approach aligns best with the results we aim for in the long run.
Education
by CleoFinance
BTC/USD more sells incoming? 66k?!Good morning traders, I’m back again with another beauty guys!! I’m sure everyone is asking what’s happening in the markets recently, well Trump(era) is happening. Back to the charts, here I have a 1 hour TF, yesterday we saw very big moves in price following the news that the tariffs are on hold, but that doesn’t or shouldn’t take always our market sentiments and our biases we had coming into this new week. This setup is basically a continuation set up but for now I’m only focusing on the relative equal lows because we understand that’s there is sell stops resting below those lows. For the rest of the day we can expect price to deliver lower price for the rest of the week but my question is this…can price drop to the 66k level? Good luck traders and remember we study price and time not technical analysis!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by FxPipMaster_TebohoMatla
Eur/Usd sell setup update!!Good day traders, we back again we another beauty of a setup well Atleast I like to believe that😂. Eur/Usd a set was posted here by me on TradingView before market opened on Monday and if you go look at that set up today’s move was seen before hand and now that price went higher, we can now expect to see price move lower for the rest of the week to our liquidity resting below(equal lows). On the 4 hour price just broke structure higher solidifying a low that we want to see get broken during today trading day. As soon as price breaks structure lower on the LTF’s than we have a alert to enter our shorts, good luck and have a wonderful day✌️ My name is Teboho Matla but you don’t know me yet…
Short
by FxPipMaster_TebohoMatla
1
Nas100 continuation lower?Good evening traders, I am busy with my market recap and I saw this beautiful idea on nas100/US100 or whatever name your broker uses. Indices have been pretty bearish from our understanding as we saw price crush, well my thought process when analysing chart is question based, question like did price move above our weekly opening price to give us our manipulation phase in the power of 3, and in this case or in the case of this analysis the answer is yes it moved higher following this week’s open. Today in the 1 hour TF we have a structure shift lower and before we can do anything we need to see price come higher to Atleast the FVG that is marked on the chart, I know ICT teaches deeper about FVG but for me it’s fine for price to completely cover it. Or if maybe the OTE(optimal trade entry) is the method you use to enter trades it’s still fine or even order blocks if maybe you can see any than it’s also completely fine. Currently price is showing momentum lower and maybe it’ll close prices lower but if we close the daily candle above the midpoint of the weekly gap we can expect price go than trigger the limit.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by FxPipMaster_TebohoMatla
AUDCAD…When is enough, enough?!Good day traders, we back with another beautiful idea on AUDCAD but here we not focusing on buying and selling but rather to test a study I’m currently busy with, well in a nutshell I’m studying inside day candle stick pattern, currently on the 4hour TF we have a big bearish candle followed by a lot of small bullish candle sticks but all that trading is happening inside that one big 4 hour candle. How I like to interpret this pattern in my years of back testing this pattern(still am)😂 inside day candles can be used as both a continuation or a reversal pattern but but depending on the market structure!! What price is doing currently on the 1hr TF I like to explain it to my friends as a beautiful lady who only wants your money 😂😂 because price is making traders believe that the reversal has started but truth is price is still gonna move lower the the liquidity resting below before moving higher to reverse the big move we saw last week and beginning of this current week. We can expect price to take to low of Monday than shift structure higher to confirm our bias that price will reverse. Remember we study price and time not technical analysis.
Long
by FxPipMaster_TebohoMatla
BTC/USD update on the drop!Good day traders, yesterday I posted the same set up on bitcoin and now I’ve decided I’m gonna update this setup till we hit our Daily lowest low. 1H TF yesterday before end of trading day we show price bounce off the the horizontal lines and that is used as my support area, going into the New York session we can expect price to retest the break after it breaks below the support which will than become my resistance. Hopefully today we can see price run our liquidity resting below(equal lows). My name is Teboho Matla but you don’t know me yet..#Salute
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by FxPipMaster_TebohoMatla
EUR/USD pullback from last week’s bull run!!Good day traders, this past week was filled with so much volatility and momentum but now we focus on the new week, new opportunities, new challenges and all things new😂 EURUSD here we want to take advantage of last week’s run, we expecting price to pullback and already we have had confirmations agreeing with the idea in mind, we’ve already had a shift in structure on the hourly TF and we also see price left equal lows that we also wanna see price run through them this coming week.
Short
by FxPipMaster_TebohoMatla
NQ! Short Idea (MXMM, Quarterly Theory)Dear Traders, today I present you once again my current idea on the Nasdaq. We have swept a High Liquidity Area marked as my lower HTF PDA. Because of that we might see a stronger Pullback as shown on my Chart. However, I will still keep my eyes open and wait for the 9:30 (UTC-4) Manipulation to look for a Market Maker Sell Model which I will only consider a after a Pullback into my Key Areas and Price Action showing interests of a bearish continuation. (09:30 Manipulation, Liquidity Sweep + SMT Divergence, Break Of Structure, Any PD-Array) Praise be to God -T-
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by MarketMakers_T
1