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Week of August 4- NQ/YM//VIX/CL/10yrWhat a great fresh week of selling we just had! Last week I was looking for a slight bounce in NQ before running to our 18.5k target area - but they wanted to run is down there faster. We have been writing about this 18.5k area for MONTHS - I'm just glad we finally got the entry we wanted. To be clear - I think the next move higher in markets will cement highs that we won't see again for decades, or possibly our lifetimes. But there is a LOT of upside between here and there Nasdaq - I am so bullish on the NDX here that it basically hurts. this 18.5k area has been a long held liquidity pool I wanted to see get visited so I could load the boat on longs. The weekly charts looks great - this was a textbook measured pullback, and I love the wall of worry that has been re-erected on the market. We got a garden-variety 12% pullback - and now we have bears on parade - and everyone is selling out of their tech stocks to go bid recession stocks like Utilities and Consumer Staples - at the EXACT wrong time. Investor psychology is truly a thing of beauty, and it's all playing out in the charts - exactly how we have been expecting. FROM HERE - I am expecting nATH on NDX. I am looking for ~ 22k on the NDX which is 18% higher from where we are now. The Dow I am much more bearish on. I think we need to see some cleanup work done to the downside on the DJI , and then it can really get going. I believe that tech will lead out of this correction into the final parabolic move higher - but when the DJI bottoms and starts to move higher - the entire market will broaden out. The current Draw on Liquidity for DJI is coming from the quarterly chart - we need to revisit the quarterly IRL while sweeping the equal lows down ~ 38k. Once that is complete, I am expecting nATH on the DJI as well. One thing we have noticed is that DJI and NDX tend to move inversely of each other - but when you average the 2 indexes together - you get the SPX. You could see NDX +3% - and the DJI -2%, and SPX would be flat - which is why we tend to focus on NDX/DJI as they offer cleaner directional plays. I think moving over the next 2 months or so, you will see DJI sell off, which will help power the NDX rally - and then once the DJI bottoms - everything everywhere will rally into the top . The main driver to this market melt-up is going to be based on 3 things - but its all technicals. VIX, Oil, and the 10yr. The VIX did a very VERY interesting move on Friday. The VIX was +60% on the day mid-Friday, but after we swept that weekly level the VIX started to retreat. I expect the VIX to possibly make one more sweep higher to run the stops ~ 31 - but that would be a HUGE buying oppty. WTI Crude Oil is on the verge of REALLY cracking to the downside. This is yet another indication of the weakening global economy - and affirmation that inflation is actually rolling over. The 10yr is always ahead of the game - the bond market is the smartest dudes at the table. We have been long bonds since the April highs and we are just now getting back into an area where we could see a sweep & bounce of the 10yr relatively soon. I want to see the 10yr REALLY smash the December Lows , and then I will be looking for a backtest. To be clear - I am looking for higher stocks, bonds, Precious Metals, and lower oil as we head into the Election. I believe that whatever highs we print (for stocks) wont be seen again for decades. I'm looking for the largest bear market in history to begin in Q1 of 2025 - and its all driven by global debt. So here is the setup I am watching for this week; I want to see NQ start the next and final leg up for the final top of 20-30%. I want to see the low of the week put in by lunch on Tuesday, and expansion higher starts soon. I Want to see The DJI continue to sell off towards 38k. I want to see the 10yr and oil continue to march lower and take out the December Lows I also want to see Oil continue to march lower due to weakening global macro. Until next week - We'll be watching.
CME_MINI:NQU2024Long
by Baero-Trading
Trading EURUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 30/07/2024Risk management ought to be a trader's closest ally, as the previous week demonstrated the practical significance of incorporating risk management into every trader's toolkit. Last week, we executed four trades; despite having only one win and three losses, we concluded the week with a mere 1% loss on our trading account. This has heightened our excitement for the opportunities that this week may present. As is customary, at 8:25 AM EST, we commenced the day by reviewing the essential items on our Judas Swing strategy checklist, which comprises: - Setting the timezone to New York time - Confirming we're on the 5-minute timeframe - Marking the trading period from 00:00 - 08:30 - Identifying the high and low of the zone The next 5 minute candle swept liquidity resting at the low of the zone, which meant our focus would be on identifying potential buying opportunities for the trading session. To increase the likelihood of success of our trades, we wait for a break of structure (BOS) towards the buy side. Once the BOS occurs, we anticipate price to retrace to the initial Fair Value Gap (FVG) created during the formation of the leg that broke the structure. We patiently waited for price to retrace into the created Fair Value Gap (FVG), and executed our trade upon the closing of the first candle that entered the FVG, as all the conditions on our checklist for trade execution were satisfied. Please note that our stop loss is set at the low of the price leg that broke structure, and we implement a minimum stop loss of 10 pips. The minimum stop loss value was not chosen randomly; it was determined through extensive backtesting. This allows trades sufficient space to fluctuate, avoiding premature stop-outs and trades later moving in our anticipated direction. After 15 minutes, a large bearish marubozu candle formed, which could have exited us from the trade if we had set our stop loss solely based on the low of the price leg that broke structure, without including a minimal stop loss in our checklist. By using that price leg, our stop loss would have been around 6 pips, whereas a 10 pip stop loss provides the trade with sufficient breathing room. We are aware that our strategy does not guarantee a 100% win rate but rather hovers around 50% on EURUSD, indicating that some losses were inevitable. To avoid becoming emotional over the position, we used only 1% of our trading account with the goal of achieving a 2% gain. Upon checking our position later, we observed that the position was a few pips away from hitting SL. We remained calm despite the drawdown we were experiencing and were prepared for any outcome of the trade. All that was left was to wait for either our stop loss or take profit to be triggered to determine the result of our trade. A few hours later, the trade began to move in our favor. After 13 hours, our Take Profit was triggered, and our patience paid off as we hit our target on EURUSD, resulting in a 2% gain from a 1% risk on the trade.
Education
by CleoFinance
Week of July 28 - NDX/YM/CL/10yrThe past 2 weeks of selling in the NDX has been exactly what I wanted to see on the weekly charts. We have been talking about a Tech sell off for a while- into a bottom ~ 18.5k where we can position for the BIG & FINAL Long entry - and we almost got it this week. The Nasdaq sold off this week finally filling the quarterly FVG that we have been looking for. From HERE, we are going to print a new bearish FVG on the weekly chart that I want us to backtest & respect. The weekly chart has given us our step 1 of 3 in the form of displacement lower - now we need to see step 2 via respecting the overhead FVG that will form . The DOW however - gave us an entirely different view. The Dow has a quarterly FVG ~ 7% lower from here that I want to see visited. Couple that with the equal lows on the quarterly and weekly chart at 37,881 - that to me is the BIG draw on liquidity that we are hunting. SO FAR - the h4 has rejected the 50% level and this breaker block - I want to see follow through next week on DJI sell pressure. Crude Oil has been a super tough trade lately. I am still bullish short term into a top ~ 84 so we can setup the big sell - but the tape has been just so so tough lately. Its fun to observe oil but at this point, I am about to throw in the towel on commodity trading. Indexes have been FAR smoother and better respect my models. That said - what oil IS SAYING for those that are willing to listen - is that inflation is rolling over, and the global economy is weakening. The 10yr has continued its march lower. This is driven by the same macro forces that are taking Oil lower - a weakening global economy So here is the setup I am watching for this week; I want to see NQ start the next up leg here - I'm looking for a 6% pop or so into the weekly IRL. This will setup for a weekly TS sell to our final bottom target ~ 18.5k. I Want to see The DJI continue to sell off. I want to see the 10yr and oil continue to march lower Until next week - We'll be watching.
CME_MINI:NQU2024
by Baero-Trading
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