Trading EURUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 30/07/2024Risk management ought to be a trader's closest ally, as the previous week demonstrated the practical significance of incorporating risk management into every trader's toolkit. Last week, we executed four trades; despite having only one win and three losses, we concluded the week with a mere 1% loss on our trading account. This has heightened our excitement for the opportunities that this week may present. As is customary, at 8:25 AM EST, we commenced the day by reviewing the essential items on our Judas Swing strategy checklist, which comprises:
- Setting the timezone to New York time
- Confirming we're on the 5-minute timeframe
- Marking the trading period from 00:00 - 08:30
- Identifying the high and low of the zone
The next 5 minute candle swept liquidity resting at the low of the zone, which meant our focus would be on identifying potential buying opportunities for the trading session.
To increase the likelihood of success of our trades, we wait for a break of structure (BOS) towards the buy side. Once the BOS occurs, we anticipate price to retrace to the initial Fair Value Gap (FVG) created during the formation of the leg that broke the structure.
We patiently waited for price to retrace into the created Fair Value Gap (FVG), and executed our trade upon the closing of the first candle that entered the FVG, as all the conditions on our checklist for trade execution were satisfied. Please note that our stop loss is set at the low of the price leg that broke structure, and we implement a minimum stop loss of 10 pips. The minimum stop loss value was not chosen randomly; it was determined through extensive backtesting. This allows trades sufficient space to fluctuate, avoiding premature stop-outs and trades later moving in our anticipated direction.
After 15 minutes, a large bearish marubozu candle formed, which could have exited us from the trade if we had set our stop loss solely based on the low of the price leg that broke structure, without including a minimal stop loss in our checklist. By using that price leg, our stop loss would have been around 6 pips, whereas a 10 pip stop loss provides the trade with sufficient breathing room.
We are aware that our strategy does not guarantee a 100% win rate but rather hovers around 50% on EURUSD, indicating that some losses were inevitable. To avoid becoming emotional over the position, we used only 1% of our trading account with the goal of achieving a 2% gain. Upon checking our position later, we observed that the position was a few pips away from hitting SL.
We remained calm despite the drawdown we were experiencing and were prepared for any outcome of the trade. All that was left was to wait for either our stop loss or take profit to be triggered to determine the result of our trade. A few hours later, the trade began to move in our favor.
After 13 hours, our Take Profit was triggered, and our patience paid off as we hit our target on EURUSD, resulting in a 2% gain from a 1% risk on the trade.
Ictconcepts
NQ to 20,162.75After rejecting large bullish wick in daily timeframe then forming a divergence with ES in said wick via Jul 30th 13:00pst low, NQ displaced past the Jul 30th 12:45pst high and swept equal highs without taking internal sell side liquidity. Targeting 20,162.75 (-4 standard deviation of manipulation move + equilibrium of external range + equal highs) if NQ reacts strongly to taking internal sell side liquidity, with stop loss below said reaction.
Week of July 28 - NDX/YM/CL/10yrThe past 2 weeks of selling in the NDX has been exactly what I wanted to see on the weekly charts.
We have been talking about a Tech sell off for a while- into a bottom ~ 18.5k where we can position for the BIG & FINAL Long entry - and we almost got it this week.
The Nasdaq sold off this week finally filling the quarterly FVG that we have been looking for. From HERE, we are going to print a new bearish FVG on the weekly chart that I want us to backtest & respect.
The weekly chart has given us our step 1 of 3 in the form of displacement lower - now we need to see step 2 via respecting the overhead FVG that will form .
The DOW however - gave us an entirely different view.
The Dow has a quarterly FVG ~ 7% lower from here that I want to see visited. Couple that with the equal lows on the quarterly and weekly chart at 37,881 - that to me is the BIG draw on liquidity that we are hunting.
SO FAR - the h4 has rejected the 50% level and this breaker block - I want to see follow through next week on DJI sell pressure.
Crude Oil has been a super tough trade lately. I am still bullish short term into a top ~ 84 so we can setup the big sell - but the tape has been just so so tough lately. Its fun to observe oil but at this point, I am about to throw in the towel on commodity trading. Indexes have been FAR smoother and better respect my models.
That said - what oil IS SAYING for those that are willing to listen - is that inflation is rolling over, and the global economy is weakening.
The 10yr has continued its march lower.
This is driven by the same macro forces that are taking Oil lower - a weakening global economy
So here is the setup I am watching for this week;
I want to see NQ start the next up leg here - I'm looking for a 6% pop or so into the weekly IRL. This will setup for a weekly TS sell to our final bottom target ~ 18.5k.
I Want to see The DJI continue to sell off.
I want to see the 10yr and oil continue to march lower
Until next week - We'll be watching.
NQ Short for 19,075.00 or LowerDivergence between assets (Jul 29th 10:12 pst) high was taken on ES, inside 1h fvg. Displacement on NQ past 05:30 equal lows and rejection of bearish 15 minute fvg with turtle soup occurring in said fvg at 07:17 pst. Finally closing below and rejecting Jul 29th 21:03 pst 30m ifvg
BTCUSDAfter doing top-down analysis I can see that we've hit the monthly resistance level and was unable to break through it. Although major influencers and government official have spoken about FUSIONMARKETS:BTCUSD going to ATH's as of right now it's not happening. We are in a premium array so i'm looking to short sell for a bit.
There are no better levels to trade than these, perfect ICT/SMCAlready know we are bullish, we have a decent re-entry zone in the +BB/FVG I marked with the 🐮
However, as we know when a new HTF FVG is printed, IPDA will bring all the resting orders higher into the range between here and 50% of the new FVG.
It's looking very clear from here. We love this type of one sided targeting
Vechain/USDT-H1Hello everyone, we are back with an update for the VETUSDT currency. As we can see, the price started with three waves, very clear. And the fourth wave was complicated in the form of WX and Y. Now, a price explosion. From these places specifically? Without any pullback. And the price is forbidden? Pullback to the top of wave one. I wish you success. See you soon.
GBPJPY H4 As observed in the month, the price was strongly rising. Now, we notice the formation of weakness on this pair. It may be temporary. We may witness a free fall from these levels. We will divide the risk. The best environment areas, the 50% Fibonacci levels by 100, may be somewhat dangerous, so we will risk 0.50% in the first trade, which will have a profit of one on 3.25. However, if we sell above the 50% levels in the dollar, something? In girls, something? However, if we sell above the 50% Fibonacci levels, the probability of success will be very high. The profit ratio will be 1. /. 5. 1/2. Good luck.
Trading AUDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 24/07/2024Last week concluded positively, with three trades taken and two big wins on EURUSD. This success has heightened our anticipation for the opportunities this week may present. We began our trading day at 8:25 EST by marking the zones for the Judas Swing strategy. This is a fundamental part of the checklist and cannot be skipped.
The next step on the checklist is to wait for a sweep on either side of the zone, which will assist in establishing a bias for the trading session. After 25 minutes, the high of the zone was swept, indicating that we should look for potential selling opportunities during this trading session.
Although we have a bias for the trading session, we do not rush into every selling opportunity. Instead, we wait for a Break of Structure (BOS) on the sell side. The price leg that establishes this BOS should leave behind a Fair Value Gap (FVG), and price must retrace into this FVG before we consider executing a trade using this strategy.
The next five-minute candle entered the Fair Value Gap, indicating that we could execute our trade at the candle's close since we had met all the checklist criteria.
After executing the trade, price remained in a deep drawdown, which can be unsettling for many traders who do not manage their risk adequately. Additionally, traders who do not backtest their trading strategy thoroughly often struggle to adhere to their plan in these situations. However, this was not an issue for us, as we were aware that our strategy has approximately a 50% win rate, indicating that losses are part of the process. Therefore, we only risked 1% of our trading account on the trade, aiming for a 2% return.
Price eventually reversed and started moving in our intended direction. We remained unperturbed by the duration of the trade, as our strategy data indicates an average trade duration of 8 hours and 5 minutes.
Now all we need to do is be patient and let the trade run. We patiently waited, and our persistence paid off when our target was finally reached, securing a 2% gain on the trade where we had risked 1%
Week of July 21 - NDX/YM/RUT/CL/BTC/Real Estate The past 2 weeks were what a lot of perma-bulls were citing as "market rotation" - when I honestly think it was nothing more than a short squeeze in small caps and on the Dow.
This weeks post will be a lengthy one as I will cover many different asset classes - as it looks as though the market is setting up for a broad sell of.
The Nasdaq came perfectly down into our decision zone - and now we need to wait to see what the next move is.
From here - I could see NQ going either way - and it would make total sense. There might also be a more mechanical game being played here. If they can hold the NDX steady or bid - then they can dump the rest of the market - and the net carnage on the SPX will be somewhat muted.
The DJI and the Small Cap Russel 2000 - both had some gnarly weekly reversal candles last week. The DJI and RUT both have very similar setups - so I will be covering the DJI,
The Dow now has a really large weekly rejection block formed with that last weekly candle - and it looks like they still want to respect that weekly trendline.
I still maintain that the DOL for the DJI is those yearly lows ~2500 pts lower
Crude Oil rolled contracts to Sept last week - so it morphed the charts a little bit.
From HERE - I want to see oil retrace to 77 - and then pop to take out the Sept Contract highs ~ 84.4
The 10yr continues its march lower - its a slow grind but its doing what we expect.
When you have giant liquid instruments like the bond market or FX - things tend to move slow - but they are somewhat reliable.
Bitcoin has now complete its full retrace on the weekly chart. From HERE - I want to see it drop to take out the June lows.
Real Estate also has a chart similar to the small caps. I think we just saw a massive short squeeze occur - just in time for a broad based sell off across the market.
Everyone and their dog is 100% on board with the David Hunter Melt-Up call , and I can see why. But I think this rally we saw in Small caps was more of a short covering squeeze, rather than a broadening of the market.
Add to the fact that Japan is now openly and directly intervening in Yen markets - this puts massive pressure on the carry-trade.
So here is the setup I am watching for this week;
I want to see NQ pick a direction and show me confirmation via h4 structure. Half of me is bullish NDX just as it will be used as a mop to soak up capitol that is getting rinsed out of Small caps and the DJI.
I Want to see The DJI and RUT continue to sell off
I want to see Oil drop to 77 and respect it, providing an 8% bounce. IF we simply break down from here (and rightfully so - the global economy is weakening) - then we will see it via the weekly chart market structure shift.
I want to see YM, Real Estate, Bitcoin, and Small caps start moving lower. I think this is the start of a nice market-wide correction
Until next week - We'll be watching.
GOLD testing the hourly 200EMA @ 2420 || ICT levels includedI believe we will catch our next major bearish delivery from this $2420 mitigation. If we get any bearish activity in this range is is to be taken very serious as we push into the fib level resistance around 50%.
We have just at current PA run the stops of any early bears and may be seeking higher stops to trigger anything leftover in the bearish continuation flow.
The only thing that would change our bias bullish is seeing the print and subsequent retest of an hourly FVG array. Closing above thereafter would mean super high probability of catching multiple hours of expansion into buyside to absorb all of the low resistance liquidity resting at the highs on the way up (LRLR).
You can see how we only have two primary imbalances. One in the buyside we are dealing with now after absorbing a mitigation at the previous break of structure
We either expect some sort of sweep of a newly created high in this range to open up a flood of bearish continuation, or a massive bullish gap up to either deeply mitigate or run the high.