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Week of May 19 - NDX/VIX/10y/OilNew record highs on indexes!! The DJI broker 40k, and CME_MINI:NQ1! itself broke to nATH as well. CBOT_MINI:YM1! never actually made a nATH, but cash DJ:DJI did - so I wan waiting for that to resolve itself. The good news is that CME_MINI:NQ1! has a really clean weekly chart here, so I will be focusing on that this week instead of the Dow. I think we are entering the final blow-off phase of the markets where we could see a final up leg that takes us vertical to 50k on the Dow, 7k on SPX, and 22k on NDX. That said - I still see Q4 as being super weak, but the market wants to go higher and it will get its wish with the VIX and bond market helping along - but I will cover that later. Nasdaq Last week, we made a nATH which is great. From HERE - I want to see a pullback on CME_MINI:NQ1! to around $18k. This is a weekly FVG as well as ~50% pullback from the ATH. This will also satisfy our ERL -> IRL move. Once we take that out, we can see a weekly Fib projection of 19.6k - and at that point I think they would just muscle this thing to 20k. VIX Our poor baby TVC:VIX - what have they done to you!? Friday was OPEX so I was expecting to see them pin price somewhere as they drained the VIX dry - and thats exactly what they did. VIX nLOY - and we almost swept the 2023 lows which is a 4 year low. The TRAP in all of this - is that I do NOT want to be looking for Longs with a VIX that is at multi-year lows. I want the VIX to pop to help pressure indexes for a normal pullback. The faster the pullback and the higher the VIX - the sooner we can get on with this final leg of a 40 year bull market. Bonds I have been watching the 10yr note really closely as it looks like rates are going to backtest higher before resuming lower. A slight backup in rates, along with a VIX pop, SHOULD give us the needed pressure on indexes to get a proper pullback to buy. The longer term picture is still much lower for rates from here as the economy continues to weaken. Stocks won't care WHY rates are dropping - at least not for a while. So long as we have a low-ish VIX, and bonds are bid - the indexes (especially tech) will FLY higher. Oil Oil FINALLY gave us some weekly context we can start leaning against. Oil is starting to march lower and this week was just the pullback into a weekly IRL level. From HERE, I want to see Oil continue to march lower on the weekly. This will continue to ease inflation - which will drop rates - which will bid bonds - which will allow indexes to FLY. Everything is starting to align for a final leg up in a parabolic - exactly what David Hunter has been talking about. So here is the setup I am watching for this week; I am looking for indexes to start a pullback this week led by NQ. Any pullback I expect to be fast and sharp - so that nobody can capitalize on it. Set your alerts - I am looking for ~ 18k on NQ1! I want to see the 10yr sweep the highs of last week, and then continue to march lower. This added pressure from the Bond market will weight on indexes. I want to see oil start a march lower from here. The next weekly target for me is down around 75.6 Until next week - We'll be watching.
CME_MINI:NQM2024Short
by Baero-Trading
Unlocking Opportunity: GBPUSD NY Session Sell Setup Unveiled!At present, GBP/USD is showing bearish momentum on the M15 timeframe. We anticipate that the price will target and fill the Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG), where sell stops are likely positioned. This is due to the smart money potentially using a retail pattern, such as the support zone, to engineer liquidity, which we expect the price to manipulate. There are currently two key regions where price resistance may occur as it moves towards our sell-side objective: the bearish FVG and the bearish order block on the M15 timeframe. I am awaiting a confirmation entry signal that will indicate a push towards the downside. For an in-depth understanding of my analysis on GBP/USD, please watch this video: Happy Trading, The_Architect
Short
by The_Archi-tect
DXY & GBPUSD: Addressing Inefficiencies 📉 | Friday OutlookGreetings Traders! Join me in today's video as we delve into an in-depth analysis of GBPUSD and DXY, exploring key expectations for today's trading session and summarizing this week's trends. This analysis is crucial as it sets the tone for next week's trading as well. We've reached a critical juncture on both the DXY and GBPUSD charts, making it essential to understand what lies ahead. What do you think will be the major market mover going into next week? Stay tuned for valuable insights, and don't hesitate to leave any questions or comments in the section below. Happy Trading, The_Architect
by The_Archi-tect
Trading GBPUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 13/05/2024 At 8:25 AM EST, we got to our trading desk and started the day doing the basics on our Judas Swing strategy checklist which includes: - Making sure the timezone is set to New York time - Making sure we're on the 5 min timeframe - Marking the trading period from 00:00 - 08:30 - Marking the high and low of the zone Next, we patiently awaited price action to take the liquidity positioned on either side of the trading zone, providing us with a directional bias for the trading period. In this instance, liquidity was taken at the highs after 10 minutes, signaling our focus would be on identifying potential selling opportunities. To avoid getting trapped, we waited for price to create a Break of Structure (BOS) to the opposite side (sell side) to indicate selling. Subsequently, our focus shifted to identifying the initial Fair Value Gap within the displacement leg that broke structure. Next, we waited for price to retrace, filling or touching the created Fair Value Gap (FVG), and only executed our trade once the candle that touched or entered the FVG had closed. In this case, the subsequent candle that formed was a bullish one, closing within the Fair Value Gap. Our stop loss is set above the high that formed the Break of Structure (BoS) leg, with a minimum requirement of 10 pips. In this instance, placing the stop loss above the high would result in only 7 pips, necessitating an increase to meet the 10-pip minimum. This rule was established not by chance, but through extensive backtesting of numerous trades, demonstrating how it prevents us from being stopped out before price moves in our favor. After executing our trade, we experienced a significant drawdown that nearly reached our stop-loss level, only for the price to eventually reverse in our favor. Had we set a 7 pip stop, we would have been stopped out; however, our rule of a minimum 10 pip stop saved us from that outcome. Although the price reversed again and entered a drawdown, we remained unfazed by this reversal due to our cautious risk management strategy. We had committed just 1% of our capital to this trade, with the prospect of a 2% return. We maintained confidence in our strategy, given its extensive backtesting, which has demonstrated a win rate of 52% on GBPUSD trades. The GBPUSD pair then consolidated around our entry point, prolonging our involvement in this trade. However, based on our collected data, we anticipated an average position duration of 6 hours and 35 minutes, which could extend to 2x-3x longer for the trade. Patience is crucial in trading, as it often places you in challenging situations We patiently waited, and our persistence paid off when our target was finally reached, securing a 2% gain on the trade where we had risked 1%
by CleoFinance
GBPUSD: Unveiling Long-Term Sell-Side PerspectivesGreetings Traders, In today's analysis, we observe a retracement of prices into premium levels. Presently, there is evidence of liquidity engineering through the formation of a retail pattern (resistance zone) within this premium range. This suggests the potential for further movement into premium territory, likely targeting the removal of H1 Premium Buy stops. Consequently, engineered liquidity will be paired with Smart Money's sell orders, directing price action downwards. Upon the breach of the H1 buy stops, my focus will shift towards monitoring price movement towards the Daily Sell stops, aligning with one of my sell-side objectives. For a comprehensive understanding of my long-term sell-side perspective on GBPUSD, I invite you to watch the accompanying video below: Best Regards, The_Architect
Short
by The_Archi-tect
May 12, DXY & GBPUSD: Trading Insights for the Week Ahead!Greetings Traders! In this comprehensive video, I will provide in-depth analysis of the DXY and GBPUSD pairs, offering valuable insights for the upcoming week in trading. Both of these currency pairs have reached critical junctures, necessitating a thorough understanding of potential price movements and the need to adjust trading strategies accordingly. Currently, we have observed retracements to significant points of interest in both pairs, prompting the question: what can we anticipate in terms of trading opportunities for the week ahead? May 10, Analysis (Explaining H1 Draws & Confirmations, Entry): April 29, Long-term Video Analysis (DXY & GBPUSD): March 15, SMT Divergence (Educational Lecture Explaining how to use it): Stay tuned for ongoing updates and analysis throughout the week to stay informed and make informed trading decisions. Kind Regards, The_Architect
by The_Archi-tect
2
GBPUSD: Bearish Momentum Emerging!Greetings Traders, As we enter this new week of trading, I anticipate a shift towards bearish institutional order flow. Following Friday's NFP news release, we saw a draw towards the final buy-side objective, namely the weekly bearish order block. This move appears to be a temporary shift, reinforcing our long-term bearish outlook. Currently, price action on the H1 timeframe has retraced to the mean threshold of the H1 bearish order block. I'll be closely monitoring for confirmation of further bearish momentum from this point onwards. There are important objectives which we can use as sell side objectives, especially the engineered liquidity (trendline liquidity), we understand that there is a large amounts of liquidity resting at those points which smart money will be looking to absorb. Stay tuned for my upcoming weekly outlook video on GBPUSD. Best Regards, The_Architect
Short
by The_Archi-tect
May 06, Navigating DXY and GBPUSD: Insights for the Week Ahead!Greetings Traders! In this comprehensive video, I'll delve into the DXY and GBPUSD, offering valuable insights for the week ahead in trading. It's essential to adapt your strategies to the market conditions. Presently, we've witnessed a retracement to a significant point of interest, hinting at potential bearish momentum to follow. Stay tuned for the latest updates throughout the week. Kind Regards, The_Architect
by The_Archi-tect
4
The Dollar(DXY): Charting the Path to Bullish MomentumGreetings Traders, I'm observing a sustained bullish institutional order flow in the Dollar, targeting the weekly and monthly buy stops as my buy-side objectives. Currently, we're operating within discount prices, having rebalanced the daily discount Fair Value Gap (FVG) and tapped into the mitigation block, a zone of institutional support. Additionally, price has respected the rejection block and provided a market structure shift, signaling a potential continuation to the upside. Watch the DXY & GBPUSD Weekly Outlook Video: Feel free to leave any questions you may have. Best Regards, The_Architect
TVC:DXYLong
by The_Archi-tect
2
GBPUSD: Bearish Momentum Ahead! Weekly Trading OutlookHello traders, In today's video, I'll delve deep into the GBPUSD analysis, offering a thorough outlook for the upcoming trading week. With significant developments unfolding on both the DXY and GBPUSD charts, it's imperative to dissect the possibilities that lie ahead. Stay tuned for invaluable insights that can help guide your trading decisions. Don't hesitate to drop any questions or comments in the section below. For a comprehensive analysis on the DXY, be sure to watch the May 06 video linked below. Happy trading! The_Architect
Short
by The_Archi-tect
2
GBPUSD: Navigating Potential Temporary Bullish ObjectivesGreetings Traders, GBPUSD is currently exhibiting bearish institutional order flow from a long-term perspective. However, there's a temporary bullish momentum as price approaches the H1 bearish order block, aiming to fill the liquidity void and reach the mitigation block. From there, we anticipate a continuation of the bearish momentum towards the daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) in discounted prices. Best Regards, The_Architect
Long
by The_Archi-tect
2