Get started

Ictorderblock

$GBPUSD - Seeking Liquidity Short - 3:1 Scalp-ish TradeThe old me wants to buy it because it fits the trend-line/channel. Also, the double top doesn't help. I know that once we get near that double top it's going to break it. But everyone else is buying right now, thinking the same thing and that's why the smart money signals are telling me to sell soon. There is a breaker and an order block just above this consolidation area. I believe it will enter and exit this area pretty quickly and head south seeking more buyers and taking them out as they set their Stop Losses just below these liquidity areas like the previous daily lows. So I have 3 take profits marked out along the way in case it does hit another small Order Block and bounce, I'll take profit there, move my stop loss to where ever is appropriate and continue hoping that it's going to take out the sell-side liquidity. I believe it's currently building up sell orders, although it looks like a buy, that's what they bankers want you to think so that when you buy on this level they'll just turn around and take out your money by forcing the price to sell. So I'm going for the sell here and I'm already in position to do so. Happy Thanksgiving! and happy trading!
Short
by BodiesXWix
2
$GBPUSD - False Breakout - Going ShortAs it was nearing the highs, I put a small lot size on at 1.33104 for 10 pips to 1.33204 and got a short 10 pip scalp on the way up. Just because I knew it would break the highs to trigger the smart money stop runs and clear out tight stop losses people already had on sells. Now that it's above the Highs, I believe this is a false breakout as it's holding steady, letting people believe it will breakout, putting in their buy bids or waiting for it to retest the last high, or putting their stop losses just below the last high and already buying. I think Smart Money knows this and will go short to take out that liquidity that is building up at the current moment. Secondly, On a 4-hour chart, this is historically a great support/resistance level between 1.332 and 1.336. It's also at about the 80% retracement level on a Daily Chart (which is where you see most reversals occur). Now, It could turn to support and buy, but that's where I turned to the COT (Commitment of Traders) indicator. The Commercial Banks, you know like JP Morgan, IMF, Deutsch Bank, etc. decided to add more shorts last week. Not a lot more, but enough to be noticeable, that the shorts would've only netted about 116 pips. I believe if they were going to be adding shorts they're looking for more than 116 pips that only took about a day to achieve. (See Chart) On Barchart.com the COT report has commercial banks adding about 2,000 short positions as of 11/17. I believe they're looking for a much shorter move in the short term. But long term I do expect this resistance area to be broken within the next few months. Additionally, I always like to compare GU to EU as they move similarly. And EU is definitely looking like a swing sell. The Pound is definitely much stronger than the Euro, which is why I think the Euro will sell off much more, but in the short term, I think we'll see the Pound sell with it. I'm not 100% it will reach 1.32000. So I'm looking for take profit zones to shave off some earnings on the way down. The first about 25 pips, the second about 65 pips, the third about 115 pips, and I always leave a trailer at the end to see if I have a miracle drop below that. But then again, I could be completely wrong. This is just my analysis and I'm just some guy that likes to post his ideas. Good Luck and Good Trading.
Short
by BodiesXWix
2
$EURUSD Swing Sell Underway - Another one So this Blue Horizontal line that I've had on my charts for quite some time represents a significant resistance/support line for the past 8 years or so. I call the daily bias for the EURUSD to be a sell, and it was overnight and when I woke up I immediately exited the trade with a mere but decent 20 pips, closing the trade at 1.18337 about 8 hours ago. The move shifted sideways and then within the last part of the day I noticed the strong surge upwards, until it hit my resistance line that has been marked for weeks at 1.18790. I kinda looked at it for a second. Then I looked at the big picture and thought this could be another swing trade. So I went for it. Within the previous day it has attacked a daily high and a daily low but has not broken either of them. So tomorrow it's going to be a given that it will break one or the other. So I have set up second entry zone and that is just above the next two daily highs and allows for a stop loss above the 3rd daily high. I will probably try a combination of entry points and stop/losses to mitigate risk as I always do. Never put your eggs in one basket!! Where I drew my historical support/resistance line just happened to the bottom of an Order Block. (See Chart) As for Take Profit Goals, I chose 1.17400 because it's just below the current swing low and it's an institutional/psy number. No one at a bank is going to be aimin for 1.174214. And it also comes in contact with an order block that could turn the trade north depending on what time of day it is when it gets there. My second take profit area is 1.17000 which is just above a 4 hour low/swing low of 1.16978 and just below a daily low. Once/if I hit these zones I'll leave about a 5% profit trailer to roam to see if it gets lower while my s/l is below entry. Again, the Commercial banks are very net short with EU even though they have been adding longs. I did check the Open interest last night and it seems to be steadily rising, which wouldn't necessarily call for a sell. Unless a drop in interest has just happened or is about to happen. Here's a chart with the COT report, stochastic with interest, and Money flow with interest rates. The Money Flow Index with the Open Interest seems to be Diverging which would signal a sell in the near future. I'm not expecting it to turn around and sell off now. But I do Expect a struggle, probably breaking the highs (barely) before dropping a few hundred pips by the end of next week. Also Linked is every EURUSD call I've made so you can see the timeline of how bad I used to make calls, and my progression to making better calls and realizing where I went wrong with incorrect ones. At least now they're all in one spot. During this period I'll be trying to add more positions as well as give a breakdown of price action on this thread as the trade moves along. Just my two cents. And just a reminder, I could be completely WRONG. I'm just some guy with a 9-5 job that likes to post his ideas on here :) FX:EURUSD
Short
by BodiesXWix
1
$EURUSD - Practicing Daily Bias - Short for now on 11.19I'm practicing the reasoning I would have to trade a specific direction for a daily Bias. Today, November 19, would be a sell bias. We've reached another resistance area that could not be broken and have a few daily lows that can easily break. Not only that, there have been some false breakouts aka "Turtle Soups" that have resulted in a short drop followed by a shallow retracement into an optimal trade entry. Seeing two of these in the same area within about a week's time frame would leave me to believe we would be selling off to break at least a few of those lows. I have it stopping around an Order Block to see what the reaction might be at that point. Keep in mind the are still equal highs above which it will want to break, it's all about the time as to when that will happen. Anyway, this is more of a journal entry than anything. But I am short, I just didn't get the entry I wanted but I'm confident it will move in the direction intended on this chart. We can only wait and see. FX:EURUSD
by BodiesXWix
Importance of risk management : this trade is now risk free!I took this trade and was expecting price to move 3R in my favor. However, after hitting 1R, the price just collapsed back. Even though I might loose this trade - but because of my risk management plan, this trade is already risk free for me (after it hit 1R). I cannot express enough - HAVE A RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN that works for your attitude! Risk management 1) Reduce 50% at 1R => Trade becomes risk free 2) Reduce further 25% at 2R AND move SL to break-even 3) Close trade at 3R 4) Winner = 1.75R (looser = 1R)
by makuchaku
1
$GBPUSD - Daily Bias Long - Pull Back to 1.30500 (SMT)SMT = Smart Money Theory. A lot of this can be explained in my EU Idea since both move in concert together (usually) Just GBP happens to make bigger moves. So that's why this chart is on the hour chart and the EU is on the 15 min chart. GU is looking to break the next daily low. There's a far reach for the next daily low. Price will reach the GU daily order block which looks like a breaker on the one hour chart, before then moving higher. When moving high it will reach for the next daily highs which two are almost equal. And price loves to break equal highs. (GU DAILY CHART) Additionally it looks as if the dollar will rise clearing highs before, hitting a bearish order block before moving lower which the opposite will occur with GU. (DOLLAR CHART) I've tried to look at this from a selling perspective and the only thing that makes sense is the equal lows notated in the chart with the green trend line and that's around 1.29140. But I expected that to happen a long time ago and it still hasn't happened. And as I always state, I COULD BE COMPLETELY WRONG. What do I know, I'm just some guy that likes to post his ideas. Good Luck and Good Trading ;) FX:GBPUSD
Long
by BodiesXWix
$EURUSD - Daily Bias Long - Waiting on Pullback 1.7835 (SMT)SMT = Smart Money Theory After looking at this from multiple time frames, price action needs to have a daily bias and after today it seems to have turned from the sell to a buy bias. Price seeks previous highs and lows to break and now we have multiple highs in succession and it is close to those highs. However, there needs to be a pull back before moving forward. So I pulled a fib from the most recent explosive movement to the most recent and daily high. The 62% retracement seems to lay right on top of the 4 hour chart Order Block. That price is at 1.17833 (Smart money we'll round up to 1.17835 or 1.17850) for an entry which is also the 62% retracement level. Cha-ching! (4HR CHART - BULLISH ORDER BLOCK) I think it's also safe to assume that it could get as low as 1.17110 it (near the 79% retracement level) because that is the low of the previous Asian Session as well as a previous Daily High and a Daily Low. It shouldn't get below 1.17585. however I would personally place my stop loss 10 pips below that (1.17585 is what is pictured) Once it hits the 4 hour bullish order block it should push higher and try to reach for each of the previous daily highs. If I need to hold over the weekend, I will. Looking at the dollar it looks as if it will push higher breaking highs, then hitting an order block before pushing lower which would cause the exact opposite reaction in EU which is what is proposed. (DOLLAR CHART) I've tried to look at this as if it would sell and I can't make sense out of it so that's why I believe this is likely to happen. And as I always make a disclaimer, I COULD BE COMPLETELY WRONG. What do I know? I'm just some dude that likes to post his ideas. Good Luck and Good Trading! FX:EURUSD
Long
by BodiesXWix
6
$SPX Fake Out - Has Yet To Reach Full Extension On SellOnce price creates a new low that extends past the 0% fib extension, you would expect it the have a mirror of price reach, not necessarily price action. The original trade set forth was the new high as being the bottom and the beginning of the explosion being the full length of the trade. I has reached that and has barely made any moves under it. It was a very slow day. I personally see a fake out coming. As the price reaches upwards into the breaker, maybe near the 50% of the original fib is when we'll see the down shift and probably toward the full 200%, Asymmetrical, extension. The full extension would also cross equal lows that create a façade of support but into another bullish breaker that it may not push below the next low. Probably land somewhere in the middle maybe? I've taken a look at all time frames and I believe the rise up into the sell will happen rapidly leaving the body of candle below somewhat current conditions to create a strong resistance point. You also have to take into consideration of the CRB index which seems to be turning as well. If the commodities start going lower with a higher dollar value, stocks are likely to decrease with bonds. And that's what I feel like I'm seeing. The banks want your money and they'll take it any way they can. So beware if your thinking "New High!" ... That's not something I'd be comfortable putting my money on. Watch the Asian session closely and see what kind of reaction London session makes. It could be a quick strike in the middle of the night or one that happens at the open of market. But I see a lot of posts with analysis suggesting a new high. And I just don't see it. But those are my thoughts and that's just me. I'm just some dude.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by BodiesXWix
USDCHF (4H) Backtest : 68% win rate (net 17 R)Detailed backtest results - prnt.sc - Win/Loss ratio : 300% - Non losers : 78% - Net R : 17 R across 18 trades - Avg R / winner = 1.42 - Avg R / trade = 0.94 Icons on the chart - Thumbs up : Trade was a win - Thumbs down : Trade was a loss - Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven - Cross : Did not take the trade due to one or more trade qualifiers - Bug : I could not understand how to trade, so avoided trading Trade qualifiers - $ icon : DXY was either supporting the trade direction (and we took the trade as win/loss/BE), or DXY was not supporting the trade direction (and trade was not taken) - Dollar bill icon : Liquidity was present behind the stop loss How to read icons on chart? - Thumbs up + $ icon => Winner trade, direction was supported by DXY - Thumbs down + $ icon => Loser trade, direction was supported by DXY - Cross + $ icon => Trade skipped because DXY didn't support trade direction (though a liquidity hunt wasn't an issue) - Cross + $ icon + Dollar bill => Trade skipped because DXY didn't support trade direction & a potential liquidity hunt was due near the stop loss - Cross + Dollar bill => Trade skipped because a potential liquidity hunt was due near the stop loss (though DXY did support trade direction) Indicators at bottom of chart 1) Count of HH/LL for the pair - shows when market structure is broken => Also generates a signal on the main chart (highlighted vertical lines) 2) Count of HH/LL for DXY - shows how the pair is moving in correlation to DXY 3) Correlation of the pair with DXY - just to give an idea about how the correlation is moving Strategy Pickup a pair which is highly correlated to DXY (or ignore the DXY correlation) AND Wait for market structure to break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders AND Liquidity in form of equal highs/lows should not be present behind the stop loss AND Since the pair is highly correlated to DXY , the formation of HH/LL in DXY should support the trade's direction at the time of zone's formation How to draw the zones? Check this tutorial : Risk management 1) Reduce 50% at 1R => Trade becomes risk free 2) Reduce further 25% at 2R AND move SL to break-even 3) Close trade at 3R 4) Winner = 1.75R Variables Avg winner = 1.75R PS1 : Please excuse the busy chart! PS2 : This backtest was performed right to left, so could include visibility bias. However, I tried to follow the strategy rules in all trades.
by makuchaku
$SPX All Time High? - Not Before A Drop (Smart Money Concept)As a student of ICT, retail theory is not our thing. What I see that creates the current All time high is a liquidity run. It dips, creating a breaker, comes back up but doesn't get higher than the All time high. This is a signal for price to drop below a previous low. Which low is that? Depends on where the strongest breaker/order block is. Anyway, I was looking at this yesterday and noticed that the daily highs were all closer currently than previous days lows. So I had a feeling it would gravitate toward and break those current highs. It has done so. Next is the breaker. There are two. I believe it will actually hit the higher one but I'm placing the entry on the lower on just to be safe. To understand what I'm referring to, please see the chart here of the all time high price action here. So, one of the breakers will be hit, and it will then drop to where I've placed my box. Why did I draw the fib at that point? Because the low of my fib is what creates the price action that breaks a daily and swing high. See chart here After reaching a current high which should be near the breaker, price should retrace back to near the 70.5% level possibly the 79% level. So I have three take profit zones, one at 50% just in case it does only go 50% and turns around. At this point, you should have your stop loss at break even. It's also a bullish order block, shown here. The second at the 62% retracement level. Which I think is a good level to shave off more profits. And the 3rd near the 70.5% level which happens to break somewhat equal lows, and if you know smart money theory, you know that's what price is attracted to, and also be at a buy-side breaker since the liquidity run is on the left side of the breaker and doesn't create a lower low forcing price higher. Which should then be the buy that could possibly break the high. It could possibly go lower too, in that case, I would probably take 95% of my pips off by TP 3 and leave a 5% trailer just to see what happens. With it being the weekend of the presidential election being called. anything could happen. But just by going by smart money theory, this is what is likely to happen. We shall see.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by BodiesXWix
2
$XAUUSD - Scenario Two Buy at 1934ish Bullish OBI redrew the fib to include the explosive move that would be the bottom of the fib to be the final little resting place before it broke the daily highs. This time the 70.5% retracement level is on target with a bullish order block. This scenario seems a bit safer than my first call. But either (or both) are highly likely in my eyes. The rest of the analysis remains the same with the bias and breaking new highs, etc. We shall see. I place lots on both and see what happens. And if you dig deep into this price action there is a gap just before the order block. Gaps are like magnets, price is driven to them. It should go straight through this gap to the order block and bounce for the buy (1 MIN CHART MAGNIFIED LOOK AT PRICE ACTION)
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BodiesXWix