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$ETH - Finds 1HR Breakers, FVG'S, & IOFED's *SMT**SMT* = Smart Money Theory. See Related Idea. Alright, it's the end of the week and we always see some bizarre movements at the end of the week. And the way Eth just found the previous breaker in my short call and that breaker acted as support (good thing I was paying attention and got out at 1311) and then sky rocketed out. That is know as an Institutional Order Flow Entry Drill, knowing as soon as it enters the fair value gap, it has the ability to spring out and run the opposite way it was going for a bit. That's why you see IOFED on your chart (Maybe) What goes up must come down... and fill the fair value gaps. Which is why I'm making yet another ETH call for the day. I rarely make two a week, but Sunday's are interesting as it is the end of the weekly candle and it tries to create a weekly profile. For price to retrace down into the bottoms of the a 15 min fair value gap, price may then return on the way back up, mitigating the fair value gap, and then aiming toward the double highs where there is a massive amount of liquidity, and breaking them. Will it close above them? If it does, next week will be interesting, I do think we'll see a liquidity run up first before we see the actual RUN (Liquidity run= when Price spikes into an unsuspected area and then continues in that direction) Example from earlier in ETH With out first selling off to give the retail traders some hope that what they were taught is going to work for them. The and the Millions of other people trading like that. Me, Nah, that's where they get ya. You start Selling at "Resistance "and it starts moving down and you think your safe. That resistance has a lot of sell limits near it, which means there's a lot of retail traders shorting it around that area. So if you have enough money to control the charts, how would you win? BUY into the liquidity, THE IDIOTS TRADING WITH 100-500 LEVERAGE WILL GET REKT IN NO TIME. and then their money is gone and give to those that bought into the liquidity. Because retail is taught to sell at "resistance", the Deep pockets will Play their game for a bit, just like they did last night with Ethereum. Then, As soon as price Action fills a fair value gap, between 1317 AND 1321, I wouldn't be surprised to see another blast off, then slow down and play the retail game, get retail baiting on the sell and then there goes your money as price flies up through "Support". IF YOU HAD THE ABILITY TO PUSH THE CHARTS AROUND, WHAT WOULD YOU DO? (15 min wide version) Lastly to defend my point, I'm looking at 1 broken Liquidity Level today, it's currently creating another and there's a 3rd just above it. I don't think it would fall just to com back and attack th0ose liquidity levels. Because price attacks Liquidity. Instead, I think it would go after all 3, and then fall, Because I'm still thinking it might try to get to the weekly/dialy fair value gap [s in the $800 range. What better way to do that than to fake out the public that you look like your going up. To me, it makes sense... but so did the last ETH call Lol. II know we're supposed to minimize risk but I think I might actually use 3.5% of my account for this trade, Split it up between 2-3 entrances? We'll see. Entrance - 1321.48 SL - 1313.16 TP - 1342.41 But Hey, I'm not a licensed professional so don't take anything that I say as advice. I'll keep us updated.. hopefully! Happy Sunday Ya'll KUCOIN:ETHUSDT COINBASE:ETHUSD CME:ETB1! CME:ETH1! BTSE:ETHUSDZ2022 CME:ETH1! CME:MET1! CME:EYB1! INTOTHEBLOCK:ETH_MINERTOTALFLOWS
Long
by BodiesXWix
1
$ETH Short Now to 1292 (Scalpish) *SMT* EDIT: SL ChangeSMT = See related idea about "Smart Money TA" Price has broken buy side liquidity. Retail is expecting a breakout. And it's doing a good job of acting like it is going to continue upward Nope, It is now looking for an Imbalance. Below is a 4 HR Fair Value Gap. I'm being conservative and only reaching for the 62% retracement of the pullback. Additionally it would break the liquidity sitting at 1294.27. it could get deeper, it also may not. I edited the SL Because Price could possibly reach up tot the 15 minute Bearish Order Blocks. Entrance - now (1313.40) S/L - 1329.61 (Edited) TP - 1292.45 KUCOIN:ETHUSDT COINBASE:ETHUSD CME:ETH1! CME:ETB1!
Short
by BodiesXWix
2
Learn "Smart Money" TA - Let All Other TA Go - A Case by BXWToday I posted a GBPUSD idea and it was my first Idea posted that hit my stop loss first before I was able to secure profit. All of my ideas dating back to may are hit the target almost every time. If it doesn't, it will usually hit a couple take profit levels that I will have prepared, Or it may not hit the entrance yet the idea is there and price goes to the area I expect it and I still get in on the trade and update my idea as to when and how My trade was changed. I cannot give financial advice as I am not a licensed by the SEC for taking the series 7 exam. I'm studying to be a financial advisor and The series 7 is primarily on how to use option on equities (or indices) for your clients and how to protect them from losing a lot of money. Your taught the straddle strategy, the point of the straddle strategy in options is due expecting volatility but you don't know which direction the market will go. What if theres a technique out there that will provide you with information to study the price action and you'll be able to know the direction already? You wouldn't need a straddle option for equities. You'll just need to move that principle to futures trading and move away from equities, (Or you can still use options, just buy a call or a put if you know the direction and don't straddle, waste of money on buying the premium for the options contract) Being Privately mentored in "Smart Money" It has been months since I have had to guess the direction on a trade. I may not have the perfect entrances to trades (Although I'm working on it and getting really close) I have used "Smart Money" In the Forex Markets, (You can see my recent ideas on EURUSD that took two days to hit the take profit, but I barely got the full take profit () I have used it in the Crypto market and have kept the same principles and profited Ripple hit two take profit levels () Ripple Switches directions - Chart Updated () Chart for the above idea Counter Trade within this current trade Also, Used the same principles on a Commodity such as Gold () Current Futures Chart for the Above Idea that was called with Smart Money If things don't go your way always remember two smart money principles. 1) price will want to attack liquidity 2) (more importantly what helped me out of the red on todays GBPUSD trade) Price will look to fill imbalances. Therefor you have an advantage as to knowing the direction. But it's much more complicated. What's an Imbalance? A fair value gap is an imbalance, a regular gap in price between candles is an imbalance (if you trade equities, you know that those gaps need to be filled), a liquidity void is an imbalance (when bodies of two consecutive candles don't touch, when you get a candle with a large wick, it's close and the next candles open has a sizeable gap) These are all forms of imbalances. Some do not fill immediately. Especially if you see a liquidity void on the monthly chart and you 400 pips away. (But if you have a sizeable one on the 15 minute chart and it's been a few hours, I would start looking for order blocks or breakers that price maybe moving to and reject back to the liquidity void) The rest of the Tutorial is an example of why learning Smart Money is of utmost importance (Monthly GBPUSD Chart where there are two liquidity voids, after two, the price moves towards them and fills them but now we have a monthly fair value gap and another liquidity void, this was 1985 and 1986, price is now below this aiming for that monthly fair value gap as rice neared it) Understand that it will fill at some point, mark it on your chart, but as you move down the smaller time frames (weekly, daily, 4 hour, 1 hour, 15 min Dont use odd time frames like 10 mins or 3 days, the institutions do not think like this, they use the monthly, weekly ,daily to p [lan and the hour and 15 min when executing a trade) Look for these gaps, rectangle them, color coordinate them, make sure you know which one is which because by the time you get to the 15 min chart you could have a monthly weekly and daily overlapping, you need to know which is which, look for areas where liquidity will build (equal lows/highs, Multiple same price level hits) You see this on your monthly chart Expect price to break those lows because that's not support, that's where a lot of buy limits will release a lot of money into the market when price nears it. Retail is taught to "BUY" at these lows. But if people buy at support and price goes against what you've been taught and sells through to your stop loss, the money is then transferred from your account to those that shorted. Look below it's the 1986 Monthly fair value gap You could get lucky and buy at Support, for probably 15 minutes to an hour, after that, I would personally look to bail and get out. In Fact, I wouldn't even be looking to buy. Because price is going to pierce A lot of stop losses. This is the daily chart buying into 3:1 ratio with 100 pip stop loss, you got slaughtered (I just lost 200 so I can't say anything, but I gained it back so there's that) Now 4 hour You had less than 4 hours to try and catch the "Support long" After price buried into the monthly FVG (Now this was during covid) However, I feel as if it was going to do this anyway at some point just based on the 1985/86 price action. I want you to look at the bottom Indicator. That is the Commitment of Traders. it provides information on 3 classification of traders based on their account sizes. Retail Traders (us using this site mostly), Large Traders, and Commercial Hedgers (I'll explain them in a minute) Now, You wouldn't have seen theses numbers ahead of time but I encourage you to look up the same chart and add the same indicator, because if you trade anything that is on the Futures Market, it has to be reported to the CFTC and they create a report out of it. And when see a chart with a similar formation, you can expect the same reaction by each of the classification of traders. Who are the Large Traders and Commercial Hedgers? It is not very clear who is who, the law was made to be more transparent. However, a brief overview can be found on the CFTC website here: (For Financial Futures - This includes things like Bitcoin, The S&P 500, and the Japanese Yen www.cftc.gov ) Website all inclusive: www.cftc.gov During my private mentorship this is how the 3 categories were described to me. The Large Traders (could be a single person that is considered an accredited investor with a lot of money to small money management firms that have been given permission by their client(s) to trade forex. It says on the website it depends on the form 40 that is completed by a broker/dealer. Usually this a small company that find and/or teach people how to trade. They then trade with money given to them by the owners. If they prove themselves to the owner or who's money they are trading with then they get more money to trade and a commission deal is created between them. These guys are taught by technical analysis via another human what they have learned in the basics from the the series 7 test prepared by the SEC (WHERE THE LARGEST BANKS INFLUENCE BUT THE SEC DOES NOT GOVERN) However, these people usually trade in the equities markets and trade single stock options. Not Forex or Crypto. At the time of the above chart, where price came down below "Support" that week the Large Traders added .5k long contracts. This shows me they were thinking it would go long at the level of support. The Commercial Hedgers are usually in the Asset Managers/Institutions section of the CoT report. These are certified Series 7 completed asset managers that can work for Edward Jones, Scwab, TD Ameritrade, etc. Except they usually focus on long term and manage other peoples 401k's on ETF's and mutual funds. Every once and a while you'll get an accredited investor who asks their asset manager to be more aggressive. At that poin again, they focus on stock option strategies. Forex has the most liquidity of all markets with more that 7 trillion USD$ a day.The reason this number is so big is due to the institutions. Also called Market Makers, they are the traders employed by central mostly banks and other larger banks such as Deutsche Bank, The Federal Reserve, The Bank of England, The Bank of Japan, Credit Suisse, Reserve Bank of Australia, European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, etc. These are the institutions because currency is their commidity and they want to protect it. (The banks that have endless amounts of money vs. an asset manager like Schwab) In the trade above where price is moving toward "Support", the commercial Hedgers have added 20,000 net short contracts. And those short contracts were probably coordinated on the futures market right at that time between all of the privately owned central banks. These bankers created modern day Technical Analysis. Here on Tradingview, nearly 99.5% of every chart that is created and shared as an Idea originally was from an institutional trader. They created retail and taught the masses the same. If they know how you trade. And they have much more money than you, then they know how to trade against you. This is why smart farmers short their trade their crop they grow if they know the yiekld for the year is not going to to be a high yield for most of the U.S. on the futures market, if they probably know that the price is going down then they will move with the commercials like we see in GBPUSD. The following week when price goes up, the Large Traders (The ones who don't think outside the box and think that they're catching a breakout down, by selling at "Resistance" after it broke "support" because they're just doing what they were taught by the banks. The Large Traders add 10k net short contracts that week. As you can see it does not go down it instead co es back up and is now losing money, Do you have a money manager? Could be your money. Commercial Hedgers? They control the chart so they add 10k net long contracts making the money that the large traders lost. And the Chart moves up past the "Resistance" Into a new level, finding price levels From previous months that need to be filled. You want your money in the hands of asset managers? As I'm studying to become a asset manager, again, the series 7 required by FINRA, to be an asset manager, is very options heavy. They focus on options Spend large amounts on the premium just to gain a little on a covered call or short. It drives me mad studying for this. Additionally, Yet the Commercial Hedgers (aka large institutional banks) banks only give you 1%-3% annual yield on a savings account or a Cash Deposit (aka "CD"). Whose getting screwed on this deal? (you) Give your money to a licensed money manager? They're going to lose it for you, or at best, grow it very slowly for you you. Whose getting screwed on this deal (You)? I wanted to learn technical analysis because I wanted to retire earlier. After my first year being taught by a Multi Level Marketing Company, I lost thousands of dollars. Then by accident, someone mentioned the name of the godfather of smartmoney in the chatroom of the previous scam company I was learning from. At the time I was learning Wyckoff method, (en.wikipedia.org) which really only explains what is typical during consolidation phases and to understand when the chart could ready itself for distribution, and suggests that there's an "operator" in the market manipulating it. Wyckoff is a good thing to know. I took the time to look up who the person named and realized he did not live in the world we all live in. It was a breathe of fresh air. His trades had a meaning to them, a meaning to why the direction was going where it was going, how to measure certain things, when to expect these things, and I was lucky enough to be in his last mentorship program that he will do in private. He has one on youtube now that's free for the public but it's nowhere near as detailed as what he taught us with 3-4 videos a week. Core Lesson Videos along with Current Market Price Reading Videos. For a full year, I stopped trading, I studied instead, I studied what he told us to stuudy and I would do it for hours. There are others that were mentored by him on here as well. They are rare to find. My mentor was innercircletrader, a former computer programmer turned institutional trader. Trading since the 80's, He wanted to learn so he could learn an algorithm and program a robot to trade for him. There were many times he thought he had the market figured out. A combination of a moving average and the commitment of traders, with an overlay of the Commodities index and he thought that was it in his 20's, now in his 50's, I can say I've never seen anyone predict price with such precision, He could get it within 1-2 pips from entry to exit most times. He did say that after so many years there's no way he could program a robot to trade for him even though he knew so much. And that's because the market's algorithm changes every 24 hours. And by looking at the Commitment of Traders report, seeing this evidence of the so called "Support" your supposed to trust, and see it get obliterated (By institutional traders), I can't trust my money with just anyone and expect to be ok when I retire. I need to take it into my hands. And I did, slowly built up an account lost some trades, but I kept practicing, kept my head in the charts, and I now have a sizeable account myself as you can probably imagine with the ideas posted that I have consistently profited from for the past 6 months. If you're technical analysis is not " Smart Money", and it doesn't have a narrative, you're burning your money. Are you making the money you want? Would you consider yourself successful? Be honest with yourself. According to statistics, most people quit after 1-2 years because they've lost way more than they should've (money they could've spent on buying a house ,cars, vacations etc... and I was on my way). I was told in the beginning that technical analysis will be easy. Well it's not, it takes time and a lot of work. I can spend hours on one chart. Are you being consistent with your trading? Do you only trade on certain days? Are their webasites you can go to to see if they will release information that will create market volatility? T here are a lot of people on here that have very pretty charts, but their analysis is way off, and they offer no explaination as to why they think that price is going to move in the way their chart suggests. I just see "Looks like We're going down!" C'mon, put some effort into it. Yet they are featured by the Tradingview Team. I remember being feature for my analysis a few times, and it was when I did not know how to trade. Ever since I have learned how to trade, have consistent earnings, and my students that I teach privately have shaared a few consistent winning trades on here, and they haven't been featured on here, yet. I hope one day that it will get recognized and start winning charts with "Smart Money" Principles, and they have yet to be featured. Why? Tradingview wants "Pretty Charts." If you've got a cool looking indicator and you have a channel and use the channel feature in the drawings section, Also ad some solid boxes where you think the "Supply" and "Demand" zones are and boom. Your front and center of everybody. Then you click on their play button on their Idea and you see it go the opposite way. No reflection on the idea after the loss. How are you supposed to learn if you don't opine on the loss? This entire tutorial is has been my reflection on my GBPUSD loss today. Which I actually didin't lose in the end. My mentor would've told me to walk away and not rage trade to try and get my money back. I didn't, Instead, I calmly remembered my training, and what price does, and had a few scalps and earned my money back thast I had lost plus more and I surprised myself that he was spot on what price would do as far as filling imbalances. After you read this, and you see the evidence I have presented hardening my case for "Smart Money", and if you look at my last 10-12 ideas I have posted here, hit play, and see some charts nail the entrance and exit, some make good profit, but I mmay have not have hit the whole target (But you always have 2 prior targets prior to your final profit that wauy in case you do lose, you'll gain something and add a win to that W column. My charts maybe ugly because I use three features (Horizontal line, Fibonacci that has been altered (specifically for Smart Money trading), and rectangles/boxes featjre), When price finally has a narrative as to where it's going, that's the only things you need. The Reason I thought about Bodies And Wicks as a name had to do with Smart Money Trading, in a 3 candlestick motion, if he wicks don't touch the bodies on each side, it leaves a gap called the Fair Value GapAnd these gaps need at least halfway filled 95% Of the time. Based on that information alone, Where is Bitcoin going? Learn Smart Money Technical Analysis
Education
by BodiesXWix
$GBPUSD - Sterling Needs More Attractive Price for Buyers *SMT**SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm sorry, but you won't convince me that Tesla or Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react to that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will do 2 things 1) move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines , etc.) and 2) Move toward Imbalance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids. Open Gaps) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.* As the price of the pound has fell to record lows this year, During the london session it dropped a filled a daily fair value gap. However it has not returned tp the starting gap price to completely fill in the imbalance. Sterling is usually a sure bet when thinking long term VS the USD, it's going to need to drop a little more for Investors to feel safe with their money in the Sterling again. With the current wave and the dollar moving up, The pound Should be heading down toward below a current liquidity level and the bulloish order Block. I may have already missed the best entrance, and it could just be going straight down in here, but I have my traders hunch it will pull up during the US session and fall last minute. This trade may take a while to play out not just two days like my EURUSD trade did. However to get there it will have to create an illusion that it will buy during the NY SESSION and instead will fall into next week possibly. Or it could create equal lows giving the illusion of support and the up into the red and drop OANDA:GBPUSD TVC:DXY BET:GBPUSD1! CME_MINI:M6B1!
Short
by BodiesXWix
1
$EURUSD = Ending the week With a Judas Swing Short *SMT**SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges, trendlines, channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm sorry, but you won't convince me that Tesla or Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react to that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will do 2 things 1) move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines, etc.) and 2) Move toward Imbalance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids. Open Gaps) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.* The asian range ican be a good determining factor as to where to look as to which direction the end of the week will move toward. First I look at the NY opening price at midnight. Price should cross that point at some time during the next trading day, whether it be during london or NY session, I honestly don't know. But it should get just above the recent swing high and breaking buy side liquidity and hitting a bearish blockj and then dropping towards the sell side liquidity breaking the lsell side iquidity created last friday by the daily low. The standard deviation of the asian range is exactly at that same low from last friday. So I have two entries,. 0.51% of account - 1.7:1 ratio Entry 1 -0.98135 Stop Loss - 0.98797 Take Profit - 0.97000 (Just above the standard deviation to be safe) 1.75% of account ~6.4:1 ratio Now my second entry is based on the space between two bearish order blocks . Entry 2 -0.98456 SDtop Loss - 0.98670 Take Profit 0.97000 Additionally, I ee the dollar dropping to a bullish order block and moving up to fill a liquidity void (that should happen about the same time as the take profit hits) Then My analysis has the dollar dropping below the liquidity as the dollar contiues to drop in its valuation. I'm hoping I hit both entries and I am able to calculate this correctly that I hit both entries and hit bothj take profits. However, due to the nature of the asian sedsion, I think It's only going to hit the first entry and take profit. If I expect that, I will probably add more to my position at some point, probnably when I can the direction is reversing, (if it does) I could be wrong and it continue upwards, breaking structure in the upper prices. Howevber, if you look at my ideas back til may, I have not lost a trade. I may have to pass on the knowledge that was given to me via private mentorship if I keep this up. EDIT: AFTER POSTING AND LOOKING AT PRICE ACTION THERE IS A 15 MIN fvg ALREADY LOWER THAN CURRENT PRICE, IT WILL WANT TO FILL THAT IMBALANCE. Lastly in case it doesn't get to my final take profiut, I do have 3 goals to aim for. I usually do 30% 1st target, 30% second target 35% last target, leave a 5 % trailer to see if it continues down and keep moving your stop loss each time you hit a take profit so you dont los your winnnings. Good luck and happy trading. OANDA:EURUSD TVC:DXY ICEUS:DX1! BMFBOVESPA:EUR1!
Short
by BodiesXWix
5
$EURUSD - UPDATE: New Entry, Close 15 min FVG then BEARISH *SMT**SMT = SMART MONEY THEORY* WHERE INSTITUTIONS RIP RETAIL TRADERS TO SHREDS BECAUSE THEY DON'T THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX. Please see related Idea for details. I posted on earlier 0.98045but after watching it closely I only believe it will get as high as enclosing a 15 min Fair Value Gap, then it wil drop aiming for the liquidity uner neath last friday's lows. which is also 1 standard deviation below the Asian Range during the Asian Session. I'M GOING 2% OF ACCOUNT -USING ALL 50 OF MY LEVERAGE entry - 0.98045 S/L - 0.98540 TP 0.97080 IF YOU FIB FROM THAT LAST 15 MIN CANDLE UP BEFORE THE LARGE DROP, YOU'LL SEE IT WILL RETURN ABOUT 80% OF THE RETRACEMENT. THAT'S ABOUT NORMAL FOR RETRACEMENTS. OANDA:EURUSD BMFBOVESPA:EUR1! ICEUS:DX1! BIST:EURUSD1!
Short
by BodiesXWix
3
EURUSD Scalp Is Now A Swing, EU to 0.97 if the dollar continues I entered early at 8:30AM as you can see from my first post. I reentered at the stop hunt at 9-10 and trusted the new 4H momentum and the fact that price only stop hunted from 10AM news. I manage trades around the open volume of 9AM 4H candle, plus NY open and any news. This is a paper trade to make sure im comfortable with my confluences to enter. In a real account Id cose the first pos. then reenter after the stop hunt and close it at the end of the day. We are headed to a lower long term low so im going to hold this paper trade as a swing trade to see if i will benefit from letting runners run.
Short
by kobethecancer
1
EURJPY: THE MOST PROFITABLE TREND FOR NEXT WEEK!!!!. EJ took out buyside liquidity creating turtle soup ( Smart money repricing ), leading to the current sell situation we're having. Price already took out the external range liquidity to the upside which is causing it to attack the internal range liquidity, the smart money buy sell stops and sell them to willing buyers, and the sell buystops and buy from. willing sellers. we're expecting the smart money to sell their buy orders to willing buyers which resides in the relative equal low below. we also have a weekly order block which price is going to mitigate below the sellside liquidity, there we expect price to start booking buying orders. EURJPY is heavily bearish for now, and buying opportunities are low probability. Short trade will be more profitable. STEFANFX.......
by stefan143
1
$XRP - Hedging Bullish Against Pevious Call? *SMT**SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Tasla or Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will do 2 things 1) move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and 2) Move toward Imbalance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids. Open Gaps) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.* I batttled withthis and had two ideas and I've narrowed it down to one. It should fill the 4 hour fair value gap bellow before shooting up and filling the Weekly fair value gaps created back in May/April So Currently the price dropped today in the new day and month but has not finished out the week. And I don't think that my original idea will be finished out this week. I do believe that the price will Move up. because if you look at the current Wave, the 162% is the current high within the last few days . Additionally it is within the weekly Faif value gap that it entered and droped created an Instititional Order Entry Drill (WHICH IS THE CURRENT HIGH) Now you can enter now with little leverage and leave a atop loss of about $0.42000 as well as a second entry of $0.4400 with the same stop loss. also with very low leverage. The reasoon I have it bullish above these prices are because the last quartly highs haven't been above $0.4100 and I would expect them to stay above that considering the weekly fair value gap prices. However, I do take a step back and think that it could fulfill the current 4 hour fair value gap before moving updward and then fulfilling the weekly fair value gap before getting to the current high. So that's why I have a thir entry, this would be high leveraged and the current 4 hour fair value gap price jumps from .4050 to .4230 Lastly I have an entry of $.42500 with a stop loss that would cover the 4 hour fair value gap and that entry would be the last bullish order block of $0.42545 covering to the previou areas consolidation low of $0.3760 ( 9however, if this is what you think you might as well add more leverage to your short and us these numbers as take profit) although, it' really the 4 hour FVG Low of 0.40550 that O dpn't think it will get lower than before I put on a high leverage long through the current Weekly Fair Value Gap and Hoping It gets to the other weekly Fair value Gap just above it. as you can see the weekly lows of the current chart are balanced vut where there is a weekly fair value gap above that price usually wants to fill, this is where the unbalanced act is that needs to be balanced. If it does fill the below 4 hour fair vlaue gap, my previous idea's take profit is complete and then it should move up to complete the banlancing of the weekly now that the daily's have been balanced. But if it goes up first and completes the balancing of the weekly, I wouldn't be surprised to see price not hi my original stop loss and turn around and filll the 4 hour gap. So just to be clear here is what I think the scaenarios are on chart 1. Now until $.4400 is an entry with a S/L of $0.42 Staying above highs. but falling again once it covers the weekly FVG near 5585 or 2. Entry at or below $0.4250 to $0.40550 To up above 0.5585 In which case the original idea has hit it's Take profit and now we're just going the opposite way So while I believe it is going to long, right now, it's whether it's going to go long short term and fall back to cover the 4 hour? Or cover the 4 hour FVG first and then go long? Considering most prices still follow bitcoin and I think Bitcoin still has time to get to it's ultimate low of $15,6 I think it's going to cover the second option first, clear out my first take profit and then head to my second. Giving it a 3.25 R:R. However, if you think right now is the time to go long, then you have a 2.75 R:R ... This is why I currently have a small amount in low 3x leverage going long, because if the second comes true, I can get 4 times the amount if I enter correctlty with 12 x leverage. Because I believe either are going to win. And I might Just not enter a second time until .41 and just ad double my current entry and have 15x leverage rather than losing any at all. Quite a bit to think about but any of these scenarios I believe are winners, It's just paying attention to Bitcoin now.
Long
by BodiesXWix
$XAUUSD - CoT Suggests A Quick Short Before the Long Run *SMT*Inverse relationship with the dollar may also suggest a quick short as the dollar just dropped from the all time-high. The dollar may start to pull back down and if so we should see Gold rise. But not after it shorts from the next bearish order block to the nearest Bullish order block and by looking at the Commitment of Traders for Gold Futures, it appears that the longs outweigh the shorts over all. But short term there are mostly shorts. Here's the daily up close to see how the CoT Compares. As we know bonds have not been great this year and currency chases the bond yield . If the yield is inverse the bond then It may suggest that all currency become weaker which would make gold more valuable. That's why I believe this may be the last short to capitalize on before it takes off. I expect the short to happen during the London session just a little after midnight NY Time, I would expect the gold start creeping higher until it around 2-3 a.m. a rush up into that bearish order block and then a slow drop through the rest of the day until the end of the London session, that's when I would expect it hit the bullish order blck and turn around and start moving back up. We'll see what happens I guess. Good luck and happy trading :) OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX:GC1!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BodiesXWix