Ictstudent
USDCAD LONGBased on the ICT p3 daily candle concept
Price consolidated durin gasian session
London took out the asian Low and accumulated before expansion above the asian high
After said manipulation to trap traders short, price once again retraced before the new york open to mitigate institutional shorts
Providing a discount for new institutional longs
New york will proceed to make a new higher high
SPX 9/28/22 BUY setup and FVG failure exampleToday took a trade based on the 4H setup as the 10am candle opened. Saw that we had a LTF FVG on the 15m (bearish) that failed and became short term bullish and got the entry on the 15m-FVG(H). Order flow confirmed entry to the upside. Buyers hit the bid price at the entry and followed through afterwards.
Stop loss in profits and partialed at target 2 so this is risk free. Target 3 is the 4H-FVG(H) and that where I'm aiming for another partial. I hope this has some legs to keep running.
$XRP - Bearish near .492 - 3 pivots to Watch *SMT**SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Tasla or Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will do 2 things 1) move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and 2) Move toward Imbalance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids. Open Gaps) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.*
Price moving up into Fair Value Gap in 1 hr marked in red on chart marked
Opening gap that price just reached...will it continue or move back down now?
Near that area will be bearish order block and get rejected and should move down to at least near $0.4455. I'll be setting limits on the three levels to ensure I at least take home a profit. 75% at 0.4455, 15% @ 0.42860, 5% @0.40241
We'll see what happens
EURUSD 15M TF (9/26/22)Price is bearish with a protected high and targeted low. Yesterday during London price into supply and gave us bearish PA that continued through NY session. All of the PA is internal within the 15m and the internal ranges have realigned with m15 swing structure. We have valid supply zones to short from but also realize that on the HTF we are in discounted pricing, so longs could also be valid. Yesterdays mitigations also left liquidity. Structural confirmation for longs would be for the most recent internal bearish range to fail, that would signal the internal leg as weak. Make the case for both sides of the market.
$XAUUSD to short after reachng 4HR FVG *SMT+\*SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Tasla or Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will do 2 things 1) move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and 2) Move toward Imbalance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids. Open Gaps) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.*
Even though Im calling short could also long it until it starting, However, I feel like the move to short will be a quick on and unless I set a take profit on Longing it, I may lose out on the full potential of shorting, in which I have 3 take profit goaks.
On a Higher Time Frame (4 hour) There are two imbalances neat the current price. 1 above and 1 below. The question is why do I believe it will strike these imbalances in this order? First it will appear as if that market is taking it up because there is liquidity on the sell side. More than likely it will break the little liquidity point above within the 15 min fair value gap. Here I would expect it to consolidate through the Asian Session but break the swing/spiked high during that time frame, leading retail investors to believe it will continue bullish, but will move back down under that high. At midnight NY time is when the algorithm will take effect. Whatever price it is at that time is what kind if effect price will do moving forward. I believe that after midnight it would slightly drop to convince retail traders that it's shorting, then the Judas swing kicks in. This is where it will run up into the 4 hour fair value gap where there is a daily bearish order block. Here is where to expect the price to get rejected and maybe spik e up to fill the 4 hour FVG, then you start to see the price decline due to the curtrent equal lows where there is liquidity. Institutional investors would want to hold on to their investment but make a profit of the shorting of gold and place sell stops just above the low. As all that liquidity floods the market, the price runs down into the 4 hour fair value gap below the liquidity line. At this point the price is now a duiscount in whjich institutional investors quickly pick up the tab on the cheap prices and at his poinmt yo may see the pivot toward bullishness as the dollar may start finally lowering.'
Additionally, After checking the CoT report Institutional investors have been adding longs to their positions, expecting a long eventually but until they start adding shorts, is when I expect to see longs.
Just my thoughts and thew esperience I've seen from these types of charts and formation via Smart Money,
I'm Testing my students and many have the same thoughts, so we'll just have to see what happens :)
-BodiesXWuiix
S&P 500 - Long ideaExpecting price to bound at discount price on NY am or pm
bullish on the daily until price is rebalanced
S&P ShortBad entry !
I expect NY PM session to run sellside liquidity after bslq
ranging before fomc wed
EUR/USD dailyBroke the daily OB last week, liquiduity near 3721 is looking good
Price could bounce from there to rebalance above 4k
AUDUSD, ICT Stop Hunt, Equal Highs/LowsJournal Entry 1, a won trade R:R at around 2. First I started with weekly bias, haven't studied that yet so I used 9/18 EMA MA cloud and then a weekly/daily cross & bias confirmation. The weekly bias is short. I notice equal highs at M15 timeframe and a run up and start looking for the stop hunt at M3 . As soon as there is a break in market structure down the algo changes program to sell. This particular change in program only appears at liquidity pool in this case buyside liquidity (Buy Breakout traders trapped and Short traders with buy stops above resistance trapped too and used as liquidity). Another sign of algo buying here is the FVG (smart money buying), which shows its hand clearly and at that moment it's the stop hunt. FVG coupled with BMS at liquidity pool is a sure sign of stop hunt. Target determined by liquidity matrix (Fibonacci with only 50% level drew from highest high to the lowest low of the session). At that point price is at discount and the target is going to be at premium side of the matrix. Price bounced of several liquidity pools and liquidity pools + FVG and settled at FVG. I grabbed the first liquidity pool + FVG target at premium side. A fine trade if you ask me.