Ictstudent
$SPX Repost - Finally Hit Entry 3595 (Original Idea Linked)I'm going to point to the original breakdown of the this idea to my related ideas. The continued added comments in the linked idea were just price reading along the way from the time I called this price until now. Now that we've finally entered the trade at 3595, I'll continue the rest on this of the analysis on this idea as it slides down and what I plan to do and distribution of lots. The differences between this idea and the original idea is that I replaced the fib, This ideas fib is that the 100% is now the old 62%. And that I've also added a second, riskier entry at 3602 with a tighter stop loss at 3614. The original Idea has the entry at 3595 which we hit just before close, stop loss at 3630.8. Both have expected sells to 3439.5. However, on this idea, I'll be sharing percentages of lot sizes I'll be shaving off as profit at different parts of the trade on the way down, as well as trying to add more positions or find scalps within this trade. I still think there's a strong possibility that it could reach 3602 and the explanation is in the linked idea. I found a stand alone Breaker in the price action at that point that could prove to be the real fake out price since 3595 seems a bit too obvious and I don't think Smart Money is going to play that game. There's also a possibility it could find itself at 3655 or 3669 in which if I get my S/L hit early in this Trade then that's where I will be looking for price to go next before I plan to make a long term sell.
But then again what do I know, I'm just some dude that likes sharing his Ideas. I could be COMPLETELY WRONG. But that's how we all learn isn't it?
OANDA:SPX500USD
$GBPUSD - Daily Bias Long - Pull Back to 1.30500 (SMT)SMT = Smart Money Theory.
A lot of this can be explained in my EU Idea since both move in concert together (usually) Just GBP happens to make bigger moves. So that's why this chart is on the hour chart and the EU is on the 15 min chart. GU is looking to break the next daily low. There's a far reach for the next daily low. Price will reach the GU daily order block which looks like a breaker on the one hour chart, before then moving higher. When moving high it will reach for the next daily highs which two are almost equal. And price loves to break equal highs.
(GU DAILY CHART)
Additionally it looks as if the dollar will rise clearing highs before, hitting a bearish order block before moving lower which the opposite will occur with GU.
(DOLLAR CHART)
I've tried to look at this from a selling perspective and the only thing that makes sense is the equal lows notated in the chart with the green trend line and that's around 1.29140. But I expected that to happen a long time ago and it still hasn't happened.
And as I always state, I COULD BE COMPLETELY WRONG. What do I know, I'm just some guy that likes to post his ideas.
Good Luck and Good Trading ;)
FX:GBPUSD
$EURUSD - Daily Bias Long - Waiting on Pullback 1.7835 (SMT)SMT = Smart Money Theory
After looking at this from multiple time frames, price action needs to have a daily bias and after today it seems to have turned from the sell to a buy bias. Price seeks previous highs and lows to break and now we have multiple highs in succession and it is close to those highs. However, there needs to be a pull back before moving forward. So I pulled a fib from the most recent explosive movement to the most recent and daily high. The 62% retracement seems to lay right on top of the 4 hour chart Order Block. That price is at 1.17833 (Smart money we'll round up to 1.17835 or 1.17850) for an entry which is also the 62% retracement level. Cha-ching!
(4HR CHART - BULLISH ORDER BLOCK)
I think it's also safe to assume that it could get as low as 1.17110 it (near the 79% retracement level) because that is the low of the previous Asian Session as well as a previous Daily High and a Daily Low. It shouldn't get below 1.17585. however I would personally place my stop loss 10 pips below that (1.17585 is what is pictured) Once it hits the 4 hour bullish order block it should push higher and try to reach for each of the previous daily highs. If I need to hold over the weekend, I will.
Looking at the dollar it looks as if it will push higher breaking highs, then hitting an order block before pushing lower which would cause the exact opposite reaction in EU which is what is proposed.
(DOLLAR CHART)
I've tried to look at this as if it would sell and I can't make sense out of it so that's why I believe this is likely to happen.
And as I always make a disclaimer, I COULD BE COMPLETELY WRONG. What do I know? I'm just some dude that likes to post his ideas.
Good Luck and Good Trading!
FX:EURUSD
$SPX Fake Out - Has Yet To Reach Full Extension On SellOnce price creates a new low that extends past the 0% fib extension, you would expect it the have a mirror of price reach, not necessarily price action. The original trade set forth was the new high as being the bottom and the beginning of the explosion being the full length of the trade. I has reached that and has barely made any moves under it. It was a very slow day. I personally see a fake out coming. As the price reaches upwards into the breaker, maybe near the 50% of the original fib is when we'll see the down shift and probably toward the full 200%, Asymmetrical, extension. The full extension would also cross equal lows that create a façade of support but into another bullish breaker that it may not push below the next low. Probably land somewhere in the middle maybe? I've taken a look at all time frames and I believe the rise up into the sell will happen rapidly leaving the body of candle below somewhat current conditions to create a strong resistance point. You also have to take into consideration of the CRB index which seems to be turning as well. If the commodities start going lower with a higher dollar value, stocks are likely to decrease with bonds. And that's what I feel like I'm seeing. The banks want your money and they'll take it any way they can. So beware if your thinking "New High!" ... That's not something I'd be comfortable putting my money on. Watch the Asian session closely and see what kind of reaction London session makes. It could be a quick strike in the middle of the night or one that happens at the open of market. But I see a lot of posts with analysis suggesting a new high. And I just don't see it. But those are my thoughts and that's just me. I'm just some dude.
$XAUUSD - On Pullback to Entry 1949 (Smart Money Concept)The only thing I am worried about with this call is that it could hit that Buy-side breaker and not reach my entry. But I've mapped out all key levels. and I believe this is what is possible. The previous fib it reached between the 70 .5% level and 79% level before breaking a new high. (Previous fib chart)
Should it retrace from the current high, or the projected high that I have in place before retracement it should do the same. At the 70.5% level happens to be an order block/breaker depending on the time frame you look at. This should propel it to a new high which I have mapped out in 3 Take Profit zones. The first being the current high. The second being the possible new high before retracement, the third being the next swing high which is also 127% extension of the proposed new high. We shall see.
$SPX All Time High? - Not Before A Drop (Smart Money Concept)As a student of ICT, retail theory is not our thing. What I see that creates the current All time high is a liquidity run. It dips, creating a breaker, comes back up but doesn't get higher than the All time high. This is a signal for price to drop below a previous low. Which low is that? Depends on where the strongest breaker/order block is. Anyway, I was looking at this yesterday and noticed that the daily highs were all closer currently than previous days lows. So I had a feeling it would gravitate toward and break those current highs. It has done so. Next is the breaker. There are two. I believe it will actually hit the higher one but I'm placing the entry on the lower on just to be safe. To understand what I'm referring to, please see the chart here of the all time high price action here.
So, one of the breakers will be hit, and it will then drop to where I've placed my box. Why did I draw the fib at that point? Because the low of my fib is what creates the price action that breaks a daily and swing high. See chart here
After reaching a current high which should be near the breaker, price should retrace back to near the 70.5% level possibly the 79% level. So I have three take profit zones, one at 50% just in case it does only go 50% and turns around. At this point, you should have your stop loss at break even. It's also a bullish order block, shown here.
The second at the 62% retracement level. Which I think is a good level to shave off more profits. And the 3rd near the 70.5% level which happens to break somewhat equal lows, and if you know smart money theory, you know that's what price is attracted to, and also be at a buy-side breaker since the liquidity run is on the left side of the breaker and doesn't create a lower low forcing price higher. Which should then be the buy that could possibly break the high. It could possibly go lower too, in that case, I would probably take 95% of my pips off by TP 3 and leave a 5% trailer just to see what happens.
With it being the weekend of the presidential election being called. anything could happen. But just by going by smart money theory, this is what is likely to happen. We shall see.
$XAUUSD - On Pullback to SweetSpot Entry 1930As a student of ICT, you're taught to draw your fibs at specific points. Like the low of the last explosive move that broke a high is where you would place the bottom. And of course the obvious top. Fib has been drawn. There's usually a sweet spot of the 70.5% that it likes to narrowly cross for a great entry. It just so happens that there is a breaker in the 5 min chart at that exact spot. The stars align. You also must have a sell or buy bias going into a trade. The bias is to the buy-side as it just broke two previous highs and created equal highs while doing so. People see two equal highs and think resistance. Smart Money sees two equal highs and sees Liquidity which smart money wants to take. Put your sell stop there, smart money will buy through it and take your money. That's how smart money works. Additionally, there are two more previous daily highs just above that at the first TP extension of 127%. Everything ICT teaches is unfolding in this one setup. I haven't looked at gold in a while because it was getting a bit tough to see what could happen. But this one just speaks to me. So this is my call. OANDA:XAUUSD
$XAUUSD - Scenario Two Buy at 1934ish Bullish OBI redrew the fib to include the explosive move that would be the bottom of the fib to be the final little resting place before it broke the daily highs. This time the 70.5% retracement level is on target with a bullish order block. This scenario seems a bit safer than my first call. But either (or both) are highly likely in my eyes. The rest of the analysis remains the same with the bias and breaking new highs, etc. We shall see. I place lots on both and see what happens.
And if you dig deep into this price action there is a gap just before the order block. Gaps are like magnets, price is driven to them. It should go straight through this gap to the order block and bounce for the buy
(1 MIN CHART MAGNIFIED LOOK AT PRICE ACTION)
$EURUSD - Waiting on a pullback for buyIf you study any of ICT's work you can see why this would be called. I just hope it's the correct one. Buy-side bias with highs to attack. A large gap to fall back to for the buy at a break / order block. And the price action should do the rest of the work.
$GBPUSD - Sell Bias Setup - Sell at Breaker Clear the LowThe picture is pretty self descriptive. The next daily bias seems to be heading toward the direction of selling. There are many daily lows stacked up ready to be broken as well as an equal low setup just prior to the previous daily lows. I think during the Asian session we'll see Cable range but create equal highs and lows that it will want to break to creating a breaker that will propel it to the current breaker. I'm seeing the same Bias in EURUSD as it seems to be struggling to create a higher high.
The current swing high in GU was formed from a previous breaker but the low has yet to be cleared. To be honest it could just keep going lower without pulling back for the set-up. But if it does pull back to around 1.30995 I will be looking to sell with about a 40-50 pip stop loss, but it should gain over 100 pips to break the low so well worth the risk to reward. But I like to peel off profits in case it does not get to my target so I have planned 3 TP zones and depending on price action will depend on how much I move my stop loss and where. Will be giving updates as I continue to watch this setup unfold.
Edit: The S/L Depicted in the graph may be too tight. I may loosen it back to 1.31500 depending how the market is reacting. I don't want to go above the prior swing high of 1.31757 because if it breaks that, it's more than likely going higher.
There could also be a lower sell at 1.30787 in which it may not get higher as that is another bearish breaker. Just another thing to watch for in this setup.
$XAUUSD to Pullback - 1896 to Buy and Clear Equal HighsDon't you hate it when you set a sell limit at a high that's close to equal to another one? Well that's because there's liquidity there and the banks want to take you money so it will run through your sell limit. That's why I'm waiting for the pull back to the unmitigated order block in the 15 minute time frame chart, which happens to be sitting around the 61.8% (62%) Fib level near the 1896 level, before it propels price above the near equal highs, around 1912, as my first target. The second target would be the next high after that. Today is a volatile day and I see the metals market as the place to catch the action. Let's see what happens.
My $EURUSD Analysis - Sell Below 1.76 Until It Breaks Lows 1.622Kinda Self-explanatory. Price hit a major breaker. The goal is for the take profit to beat the current low and the stop loss to be just above the current swing high. Plus it just changed sentiment and when measured with a fib, it's already bounced off some key levels. Maybe expect it to get a little higher at the cluster of breakers but there is where I would expect a major sell for 80-90 pips.
$AUDUSD - Likely Scenario (Buy at 0.70180)I could be completely off as I haven't seen a break in Market Structure as I'm trying to catch it before it happens, not with just this pair but EURUSD AND GBPUSD. I think If AUDUSD does break it before any others than we have a high probability of the rest of them breaking structure. I'm seeing a lot of equal highs and lows and breakers in price action. Which leads me to believe that at current price will break lower until it hits the bullish order block, which is where the buy takes place. that will then correct price above the current equal high's at the 0% of my fib. Additionally breaking previous days highs as that is what price likes to gravitate toward (previous days highs or lows) It will then bounce off the breaker to a lower point (not sure where, will have to wait and wsee what happens with price action when it gets there) but ultimately it will end up being twice the symmetrical range of what it currently is which will break the higher equal highs around .71600
The impression that I'mgetting that it will be changing sentiment is that price entered a daily order block but didn't make it to the halfway point, which usually indicates a reversale in price.
Whether this happens today or tomorrow, or during the asian session, this is what I am anticipating.
Next $EURUSD Sell in this Swing Trade - 1.18198As price rapidly drop at the end of the day I could easily spot the next movement price action would return to before going lower. Trade against it to the point if you wish or trade with it and add another position if you're still in my long swing trade with me. Entry will likely be around 1.18198 (allow room for broker) and it will trade back to the low it just created giving another 25-30 pip scalp or just keep holding until we reach TP3 (Which i just below the current low formed) Or until we reach the final take profit of the swing trade near 1.16800-1.16600. I'll probably leave a trailer on just to see if it can get lower since I've been holding my original trade at 1.8400 and 1.18550. And just adding icing's on top of the cake as we go. I don't expect this to hit in the Asian session, but more likely the London Session. Today's trade took two full days to form as I called the same trade that happened yesterday morning but it never developed until today. So who knows, it may slowly retrace all day tomorrow. But as far as my price action skills are concerned, another sell underway at 1.18198.
FX:EURUSD
My two $EURUSD Sell Limits Same as I had earlier this morning. The Asian session solidified my thoughts. Having two positions just in case it retraces deeper than first thought. See related chart for this mornings idea on the pair. Also sometimes you need to break down to the 5 MIN and 1 MIN chart for specific price action movements for these determinations but still using the daily chart as my overall directional bias. I place the fib on the bodies of the candles in the 5 min chart, wicks can differ wildly depending on broker. This gives you the best accurate reading of the chart from a fib standpoint if you want to enter at 62% or 71.5%.
$EURUSD Short - Pulling Back For Another SellI have two depictions as to what could happen and one may have already happened but I don't think so. It has barely touched the 15 minute order block for it to be selling already and there's too much movement in the 5 min chart that Il'll show here.
There are two 5 min order blocks that price could reach before returning lower. The first around 1.8305 and the second around 1.8412. This could used to add another position to a swing sell I have that related to this idea (which is why you see the TP1 running through the middle of my charts) or it can be a quick 20-30 pip scalp. depend on which position you choose and which it actually goes to.
it appears to be enticing buyers with a stop loss but I don't think that's all it's doing is trying to attract buyers.
Fingers Crossed.
NAS100 (TECH WILL BE FOREVER)Here we see a price cap off close to 12500! It dropped as I believe was a correction to the market bullishness.
The yellow zone is where the resistance is on the daily time frame and it matches up nicely with the Fib levels I'm confident in taking trades in.
Price had also shoot through 11500 and looks to be retesting it!
Grey box is were I woud look for longs.
Update on the UJLast USDJYP setup I posted was stopped out however I used a lower price leg and it matches up with the 79% on the fib
That debate was better than the last one.Here we see gold coming in range for a sell.
The boxed zone is where I would personally take a sell.
Price has broke 1920 but falls short to break 1950
Last time price was above 1950 was Septemeber 21st!
Don't see gold making large moves to untested highs until after the election possibly.
OTE pattern? Let's study price action!We can see a potiental push to the upside once price enters that fib zone I've boxed out.
Key levels 104.500, 104.800 & 105.000
*Dont mind those trend lines I was playing around with them lol*
