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GOLD is expected to fluctuate slightly todayGold is poised to mark its first weekly decline in a month on Friday, as the U.S. dollar gains support from fading expectations of an early interest rate cut. Investors are eagerly awaiting a key employment report later in the day to glean further insights into the future of interest rates. The dollar index is on track to register its best weekly performance since July 2023, making the precious metal more expensive for holders of other currencies. The shift reflects the ongoing strength in the U.S. labour market, evidenced by Thursday's data revealing a larger-than-expected decline in new jobless claims and increased private sector hiring in December. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting held on December 12 and 13 indicate a growing sense among policymakers that inflation is under control. However, there remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding expectations for interest rate cuts. This ambiguity has contributed to a cautious approach in the market. The decline in interest rates diminishes the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, which monitors trader bets on interest rate movements, market expectations for a rate cut in March have dropped to 65%, compared to 90% the previous week. This shift reflects a reassessment of the economic landscape.
TVC:GOLDShort
by carefulLion07pab
What do you think about my XAUUSD trading strategy today? Let meAh, the glittering world of gold! It's like a treasure hunt in a maze filled with news and whispers. Picture this: a Thursday morning where the gold market is as quiet as a library, all due to that sneaky non-farm payroll announcement peeking around the corner on Friday. It’s like everyone's holding their breath, waiting for that big news to drop, hoping it won't ruffle too many feathers. Why all the hush-hush, you ask? Well, that announcement’s got a hefty influence on the bond market. And guess what? Bonds and gold are like old pals. They often do a little dance together. When interest rates decide to take a dip, gold tends to shine brighter than a disco ball. But flip the script, increase those rates, and suddenly gold's sparkle fades a bit. It's like playing a seesaw with your investments! Speaking of friends, let's not forget geopolitics – that nosy neighbor always sticking its nose where it doesn't belong. Sometimes it causes a stir, boosting the demand for our shiny friend, gold. When people start getting jittery about global affairs, they often turn to gold like it's a security blanket. It's the superhero cape of investments in uncertain times! Now, the US dollar – that's another player in this game. Its strength or weakness can make gold jitterbug or tap dance on the market floor. A weaker dollar usually gives gold a boost, while a strong one might dim its spotlight. But hey, gold's got a bit of a trick up its sleeve – it doesn’t pay out interest. That might sound like a snooze fest in a world where everyone wants a little extra moolah, but in the land of investments, sometimes stability outweighs the allure of a quick buck.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by carefulLion07pab
EURO - Price can bounce down from resistance line to $1.0800Hi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Recently price traded near support level, which coincided with support area, but soon it declined below to support line of pennant. After this, EUR in a short time rose back, thereby making fake breakout of $1.0775 level and later it made upward impulse. Price reached resistance level, which coincided with resistance area, and at once made correction, after which continued to grow. Euro in a short time rose to resistance line of pennant, but later it bounced and made downward impulse to support line. Also, price broke $1.1000 level, and now EUR trades very near to resistance line of pennant. I think, Euro can rise ot resistance line and then bounce down to $1.0800, exiting from pennant. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Short
by WalterMoon
3
XAUUSD: Analyze gold price trends todayGold prices (XAU/USD) struggled to capitalize on modest intraday gains and retreated to the lower end of the day's trading range during the first half of the European session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) attracted some buying activity and traded above a one-week high reached the previous day amid doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates soon ( Fed). This is underpinned by a further rise in US Treasury yields, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by NicoTradingMaster
💡December Bank of England Survey Reveals Divergent Views The most recent survey from the Bank of England Decision Maker Panel (DMP) in December is likely to maintain a division within the committee regarding the outlook on interest rates. Those leaning towards a more cautious approach will highlight the ongoing decline in inflation expectations. The 1-3 year ahead expectations, calculated on a three-month average basis, dropped by 4.3% and 3.1%, compared to the previous figures of 4.6% and 3.2%, respectively. On the contrary, proponents of a firmer monetary stance will emphasize the persistent lack of advancement in wage growth. Year-ahead expectations for wage growth increased by 0.1 percentage points to reach 5.2%. Additionally, Catherine Mann, a dissenting member with a hawkish stance who advocated for a 25 basis points hike in the December meeting, had previously highlighted concerns about price pressures originating from firms' expectations. This aspect was a crucial factor in her decision to vote in favor of higher interest rates.
Short
by Stone_Haven
Today's gold strategy will increase slowly againSpot Spot Gold's advance from its mid-December $1,974 per troy ounce low has briefly exceeded the 2020, 2022 and May 2023 highs at $2,070 to $2,082 by rising to $2,088 on Thursday before giving back some of its recent gains and slipping to $2,059 on Friday. Earlier today the precious metal resumed its ascent on increasing geopolitical tensions in the Res Sea and is on track to revisit last week's $2,088 peak. Only a fall through Friday's $2,059 low would put the 21 December high at $2,055 and the mid-December high at $2,048 on the map.Spot Spot Silver (5000oz)'s rally off last week's $23.54 per troy ounce low, made between the 200- and 55-day simple moving averages (SMA) at $23.67 to $23.57, is gaining traction with the mid-December high at $24.29 being in focus. Further up sits the 22 December high at $24.60.
TVC:GOLDLong
by carefulLion07pab
XAUUSD trading strategy today will increaseThe $2,050 level stands out as a pivotal point, having demonstrated substantial resistance across multiple instances. This price threshold demands vigilant observation from market participants due to its historical significance. While the market seems to be inching closer to this critical level, it's essential to recognize a notable trend: the market tends to allure buyers when experiencing downward movements. This observation is not limited to the current market scenario but potentially extends to the overarching outlook for 2024. Despite the approaching $2,050 resistance, the market's predisposition to attract buyers during price dips could shape the overall trajectory of gold in the coming year. Delving deeper into price dynamics, the $2,000 level emerges as a sturdy foundational support for the gold market's future movements. Consequently, any market activity near this price point is anticipated to draw significant attention. Adding to its significance, the convergence of the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in this vicinity provides further rationale to consider it an appealing buying opportunity.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by carefulLion07pab
The Euro's recent escapades with the US dollar have The Euro's dance with the US dollar last Thursday painted a curious picture - a spirited attempt to soar, only to stumble in the face of market fatigue, as if gravity suddenly remembered its role in the financial theatrics. This weariness isn't a solo act; it has accomplices. The Euro's recent surge stretched its limits, much like a rubber band pulled too far. And the timing? Well, it's the season of not just festivities but also fiscal scarcity. Liquidity tends to play hide-and-seek during this time of the year, leaving the market feeling a bit parched. The market's recent trajectory resembled a rocket's flight path - an upward surge that now seems to be enjoying a pause mid-air. This break isn't just a breather; it's a sigh of relief echoing across the boardrooms and trading floors. Ah, the holiday season! Nestled between the echoes of Christmas and the countdown to New Year's, it's a time when the market dynamics sway to a different tune. Prominent traders, much like eager kids waiting for the last firework to burst before the show's finale, choose to sit this one out. There's a unanimous decision to trade the trading for a while, thanks to the holiday mood casting its spell. It's not just a lull; it's the hush before the year-end storm. Most folks aren't glued to their screens analyzing FX trends; they're too busy contemplating the best roast turkey recipe or debating who'll win the family game of charades. The market, in its current subdued state, seems to be in harmony with the general mood - serene and taking a holiday siesta.
Long
by carefulLion07pab
It is expected that GBPUSD will increase slightly today and thenLet's talk about the pound and the dollar - they had quite a week! The pound was like a kid on a seesaw, going up and down against the dollar. Sometimes it looked like it was winning, but by the end of the week, it didn't close at the top. There was a holiday break for the markets on December 25, but the GBP/USD pair didn't rest much. There was some action because of the conflict in Gaza. That situation over there? Pretty intense. It's causing a lot of tension worldwide, and sadly, it's taking lives. That kind of stuff affects the currency market too. The US dollar had its own drama. People started thinking the Federal Reserve might drop interest rates, and that made the dollar less appealing. Traders got excited, thinking it could mean smoother sailing for the global economy. But then, things got a bit wobbly for the pound against the dollar. You see, the pound hit a high note at the start of Thursday but quickly lost that vibe and went back to where it started on Wednesday. Why? Well, there's a fear of high prices and a possible economic slump, which got worse because people weren't sure what the Bank of England was planning. Then, last Friday, the pound was all over the place. The news about house prices dropping more than expected probably made things more jumpy. But there were some positive things happening elsewhere that kept the pound from totally crashing. The US dollar? Well, it was a mixed bag. Some folks were willing to take risks, so it faced some challenges at different exchange rates.
Long
by carefulLion07pab
AUDUSD: Market analysis strategy on I chart todayThe Australian Dollar (AUD) tries to end a losing streak on Friday. The AUD/USD pair is facing bearish pressure, even as the US Dollar (USD) lacks clear direction and China's Caixin Services PMI improved in December. Market Sentiment Weakness and widespread commodity price declines have both played a role in the Australian Dollar's weakness. Australia's Judo Bank's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data shows a decline in business activity across both the services and manufacturing sectors, further highlighting vulnerabilities of the Australian Dollar. The Services PMI specifically showed the fastest contraction in the services sector since the third quarter of 2021. However, Matthew De Pasquale, Economist at Judo Bank, suggested that a slowdown in the economy Australia has not yet gained momentum. The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds a steady trend, showing a slight tilt towards positive sentiment and potential profits. However, a pullback of recent advances in United States (US) Treasury yields could put some pressure on the Greenback. Furthermore, upbeat jobs data released on Thursday could strengthen support for the US Dollar.
Long
by NicoTradingMaster
2
EURUSD: EURUSD strategy todayThe EUR/USD pair remains on the defensive during the early Asian trading session on Thursday. The backdrop of a stronger greenback and higher US Treasury yields exerted some selling pressure on the major pair. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0922, up 0.01% on the day. On Wednesday, Germany's unemployment rate remained steady at 5.9%, according to estimates. Unemployment change shows the number of unemployed increased by 5k compared to the market consensus of 20k and at 21k previously. Investors are awaiting Friday's Eurozone inflation report for fresh impetus. The annual Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) in December is forecast to rebound to 3.0% from 2.4%.
Long
by NicoTradingMaster
NZDUSD | COULD BE A GOO SELLHey Traders! Check this out – NZDUSD is shaping up to be a pretty exciting play. We've just seen a break below the 1-hour moving averages, and we're now under a key pivot level on the lower timeframes, which hints at some solid bearish momentum. Also, the 4-hour candlestick is sporting a long upper shadow, suggesting that the sellers might be settling in for the long haul. Plus, hedge funds seem to be leaning towards a continued bearish push, as they're starting to sell off NZD a bit. ✅📊
Short
by FX-TradingLions
USDJPY: Analysis of the usdjpy market today, January 4The au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory for the seventh straight month and fell to 47.9 in December – the lowest level since February. Predictions of a reversal in the policy divergence between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024 will continue to support the JPY. Minutes from the December 12-13 FOMC meeting reflect consensus that inflation is under control and concern about the risks that overly restrictive policy could pose to the economy.
Short
by NicoTradingMaster
AUDUSD: My audusd prediction trend todayThe Australian dollar (AUD) faces challenges as it struggles to stem a losing streak on Thursday. The AUD/USD pair is under downward pressure due to risk-taking sentiment and the general bearish session of the commodity complex. Weaker Judo Bank Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data added further pressure on the Australian Dollar (AUD). According to the latest Judo Banking Services PMI, Australia's Services sector contracted in December. The index reported a reading of 47.1, missing market expectations that it would remain flat. 47.6. Additionally, the composite PMI dropped to 46.9 from the previous figure of 47.4. This marks the fastest pace of Services contraction since the third quarter of 2021.
Short
by NicoTradingMaster
USDJPY | COULBE A GOOD SELL?Hey Traders! Got a bit of a challenging one for us today. The market's been on a steep downtrend, but recently, it showed signs of upward movement after the release of somewhat positive PMI news for the dollar. Despite these dynamics, I'm sensing a potential drop of 60-100 pips. The currency is hovering around a monthly pivot line, and the 200-day moving average is looming over the daily timeframe. These factors alone make a compelling case for entry. It's a tough trade, no doubt, but too intriguing to skip. My take? Go for it, but consider trading with a smaller lot size. Remember, this is a pullback trade, so we're not fully in sync with the trend 📈✅
Short
by FX-TradingLions
XAUUSD trading plan on January 3, 2024. The market waits for theThe S&P U.S. Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December fell below investor expectations on Tuesday, sliding to a four-month low of 47.9 vs. The forecast level is stable at 48.2 from November. Market appetite is distorted by erroneous data and investors are starting to temper expectations for interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), with average expectations of The market is pricing in about 150 basis points of interest rate cuts through the end of the year. This is in stark contrast to the dot chart of Fed interest rate expectations, which currently shows a maximum rate cut of 75 basis points through 2024. Market sentiment will be buoyant this week as the first 2024 US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) print is expected on Friday. December's NFP is expected to show a slight decline in US job additions from 199K to 168K. NFP watchers will have to weather the mid-week crunch, with ISM Manufacturing and the latest Fed Minutes released on Wednesday, followed by ADP Employment Change and Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday in the week ending December 29.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by NicoTradingMaster
It is expected that GBPUSD will decrease graduallyThe pair even broke the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours). The next major support lies at 1.2610 or the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours). A downside break below the 1.2600 zone could trigger an extended decline. The next major support is 1.2520, below which the pair could decline and test the 1.2450 level. Any further losses could push the pair towards the 1.2300 zone. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the 1.2680 level. The next key resistance is near the 1.2720 level. A close above the 1.2720 zone could open up more upside opportunities. The next stop for the bulls could be 1.2800.
Short
by NicoTradingMaster
EURUSD Could fall to 1.0950-1.0900 and then rise againThe Dollar Index is rising as expected and could test the 102.50 level while the Euro could fall to 1.0950-1.09. EURJPY looks bearish towards 155/154 while USDJPY has rebounded and could test the 143 level now, contrary to our expectations of a fall to 140-138. USDCNY is rising towards our mentioned target of 7.15/16. The Australian Dollar is heading towards 0.6750/0.67 while the Pound is near the immediate support of 1.26, which needs to produce a bounce or could be vulnerable to a drop to 1.24. USDRUB increased sharply yesterday but appears to be falling from the current 91 level. USDINR rose slightly above our expected resistance at 83.30 but then turned back down. The 83.35-83.20 range could hold well during the day. EURINR has risen above 91 and could soon test 91.50 before pausing. US and German Treasury yields are seeing upward revisions in line with our expectations. Both output may increase further from here in the coming days. The 10-year GoI could rise to test its resistance before turning back down to resume the downtrend. On the other hand, the 5-year GoI is stuck in a tight range within its broader downtrend.
Long
by NicoTradingMaster
Technical analysis shows that GOLD is likely to declineGold prices did not fluctuate much last Friday, basically oscillating around 2065, with an amplitude of $16, and finally closed with a Doji Star with long upper and lower shadows. It was a continuous trend from last Thursday. Recently, with the lack of crucial data and speeches, gold prices' volatility has fallen. The Red Sea situation continued to heat up last Saturday, and with the influence of geopolitics, gold prices could be supported. However, with optimistic rate-cut expectations to be adjusted, the overall gold price lacks direction, so it will mainly fluctuate! Looking at the technical chart, the current gold price is still under pressure in the resistance area of 2075-2080, which also indicates that gold prices do not have the momentum to break through that range in the short term. Judging from the 1-hour chart, the MACD golden cross began to widen, so a rebound can be seen at the hourly level. Investors need to watch for resistance near the MA60 around 2073. However, the MACD death cross in the 4-hour chart began to widen. It is estimated that gold has limited room for a rebound during the day. At the same time, the bearish divergence in the daily chart is prominent,so we do not recommend medium-term bullish investors buy gold now. Today, aggressive traders can still buy low and sell high in the range of 2055-2073.
TVC:GOLDShort
by carefulLion07pab
GBP/USD tends to increase when it meets supportThe GBPUSD has been forming an upward structure with higher highs after breaking above a key downtrend line in early November. Although the GBPUSD's uptrend came to a temporary halt at the four-month high level of 1.2826, the completion of the golden cross between the 50- and 200-day SMAs is expected to provide upside momentum. However, during the European session on Tuesday, the GBPUSD fell sharply during the day as the USD rose sharply and formed a death cross downward structure in the 4H timeframe, potentially creating more uncertainty for the GBPUSD in the near term. Now, we believe that as long as Wave 4 of the "upward impulse waves" structure has not been broken, the end of the "upward impulse waves" is still worth looking forward to. Given that the short-term oscillators are continuing to provide cautiously positive signals, the bulls may try to eliminate the latest weakness and overcome the December resistance at the 1.2794 level. A break above this resistance could open the door to a four-month peak at 1.2826. If it fails to stay here, the GBPUSD could move towards the June high of 1.2847 until it reaches the 1.2900 level. On the other hand, if the GBPUSD reverses lower, several previous support levels at 1.2642 and 1.2612 could now become the initial line of defense. A break below that bottom could see the price fall to recent support at 1.2611, or even lower, with upward Wave 4 1.2500 likely to provide a correction. Overall, risks remain cautiously tilted to the upside in the near term, even though the GBPUSD rally appears to be losing its momentum. To change this situation, the price cannot go below a series of key supports or the uptrend will be reversed. It is recommended to buy the dips.
Long
by carefulLion07pab
1
EUR/USD is trending downAs all investors anticipate for the upcoming Non Farm Payroll on Friday, the Dollar gains its strength on the 2nd day of 2024. Trading at 102.10, the US Dollar experienced a significant increase, indicating a noteworthy uptrend in the index. This upward shift can be attributed to market anticipation for guidance and investors turning to the USD as a safe haven in anticipation of key labor market reports scheduled for release later this week. The economic calendar will be packed with news releases starting on Wednesday, at 23:00 (GMT +8), we have the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) and U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (SA) (Nov). Besides that, there will be a short FOMC Meeting coming up, it is something to look forward to as the Fed has been mentioning that rate cuts is around the corner, we could hear some dovish or hawkish comments coming up that would determine the Dollar direction for this week. EUR/USD was trending up aggressively until it got rejected by a strong resistance level at price 1.11392. It has also broken out of the short term uptrend support zone which indicates EUR/USD could be in a short term downtrend which is why I am interested in looking for shorts for short term. Besides that, one of the reason I am looking for shorts is we have a huge imbalance to be filled . The imbalance will be my take profit target for the shorts.
Short
by carefulLion07pab
Technical analysis shows that XAUUSD is likely to declineGold prices did not fluctuate much last Friday, basically oscillating around 2065, with an amplitude of $16, and finally closed with a Doji Star with long upper and lower shadows. It was a continuous trend from last Thursday. Recently, with the lack of crucial data and speeches, gold prices' volatility has fallen. The Red Sea situation continued to heat up last Saturday, and with the influence of geopolitics, gold prices could be supported. However, with optimistic rate-cut expectations to be adjusted, the overall gold price lacks direction, so it will mainly fluctuate! Looking at the technical chart, the current gold price is still under pressure in the resistance area of 2075-2080, which also indicates that gold prices do not have the momentum to break through that range in the short term. Judging from the 1-hour chart, the MACD golden cross began to widen, so a rebound can be seen at the hourly level. Investors need to watch for resistance near the MA60 around 2073. However, the MACD death cross in the 4-hour chart began to widen. It is estimated that gold has limited room for a rebound during the day. At the same time, the bearish divergence in the daily chart is prominent,so we do not recommend medium-term bullish investors buy gold now. Today, aggressive traders can still buy low and sell high in the range of 2055-2073.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by carefulLion07pab