EURUSD trading ideas todayThe EURUSD lost momentum on Wednesday as concerns about the eurozone's economic outlook intensified. However, the intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidation is likely below 1.1008. A further rebound is expected as long as the 1.0722 support level is held. On the upside, a break above 1.1016 would resume the overall uptrend starting from 1.0450 and retest the high of 1.1274.
From a broader perspective, the EURUSD is still hovering within a consolidation zone in 2023 with strong resistance at 1.1275 (a 17-month high) and support at 1.0450 (a 10-month low).
If it breaks above the 200-week EMA, then it could touch the 200-week EMA at 1.1150 ahead of 1.1275. a move higher could shift the bias to bullish. However, any move below the 50-week and 100-week SMAs will cause it to fall to 1.0450, below which the psychological barrier of 1.0200 will be closely watched to prevent further declines.
In the near term, the EURUSD could break below 1.0880 and the 4-hour 100 SMA at 1.0870 to add bearish pressure and turn bears' attention to 1.0825 until the December low at 1.0715. It is recommended to go short at the highs.
IDEA
GBPUSD trading strategy todayOn Wednesday, the GBPUSD fell sharply during the European session as UK inflation for November came in below expectations. The fresh weakness is expected to completely reverse Tuesday's gains and challenge key support at 1.2636. With the overall decline of the GBPUSD, bears are expected to test the starting point of the upward impulse waves. Subsequently, the bullish bias will still exist to keep the structure of "upward impulse waves" intact.
But the focus is now on the downside. As the Relative Strength Index in the 4H timeframe fell below 50 and below the lower limit of the long-term rising regression channel, reflecting a shift in the technical outlook to bearish.
On the downside, the 1.2600 level is now the first support level for the bullish market. A 4-hour close below this level could open the door to a further slide towards the 1.2550 level. It is recommended to go short at the highs.
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GOLD: The gold price I expect today, December 21This is what we said before, once a trend has formed it cannot end anytime soon. The market no longer believes in the Fed's management of expectations anymore. Next year, the Federal Open Market Committee will have new members and then moderate officials will prevail. More data and time are needed to verify the resilience of inflation and the economy before changing policy. This Friday's core PEC and Q3 GDP data are crucial. The volatility pattern of gold prices will not change before.
Regarding trading, gold price yesterday fell to a low of 2021 USD, followed by upward fluctuations. The US market reached a recent high of $2047, surpassing the top of our range. Our short selling strategy failed, causing a small loss before we exited the market. Gold trading was very strong yesterday and the short-term market was completely dominated by sentiment. Don't be too stubborn and have a clear mind.
XAUUSD Today's gold strategy I predictGold prices yesterday during the Asian session mainly fluctuated in a narrow range. At the start of the US market, gold prices quickly surged amid a weakening dollar index and after a close until 2047. However, under pressure from hawkish theory and strong economic data strong, gold prices fell slightly, eventually closing. a small white body. Gold prices are currently at the upper edge of the volatility range over the past 2 weeks, where temporary resistance has been encountered. Back to technical analysis, the daily uptrend is still clear and the weakness is that the MACD signal is at high levels; The 1-hour candle stands above the 60-day moving average, but due to the lack of a key intraday chart, it will be aligned to the 60-day moving average. The following focus is on support for 2028 and further focus on support for 2015; Today's trading range may still be called 2015-2048, you can still buy low and sell high within the range, and progressives may refer to the smaller range 2028-2040.
EURUSD tends to decrease when it encounters resistanceThe EURUSD appeared to be on firm footing on Monday after falling below the psychological barrier of 1.10 on Friday. However, the recovery is unlikely to last long as much weaker-than-expected German Ifo data and rising bearish momentum in the 1D timeframe are keeping the near-term trend under pressure.
Additionally, last week's (1W timeframe) long upper shadow and the repeated failure of the weekly close to break above the 1.1000 threshold exacerbated the negative signals of the momentum.
Currently, the price is holding above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0900 of the 1.0723 - 1.1009 uptrend line, which is expected to show a slight bullish bias, but more work on the upside (e.g., a close above 1.0950) would be needed to remove the downside threat; otherwise, a continuation of the bearish structure would be expected.
It fell below the threshold of 1.0900 and the 20-day SMA (1.0875), which will likely lead to further declines after the completion of the reversal pattern and the double top. It is recommended to go short at the highs.
GBPUSD: GBPUSD trend today December 19The dollar index fell 0.1% as markets weighed potential timing of 2024 Fed, ECB and BoE rate cuts and whether the BoJ on Tuesday will offer more clarity regarding when they might hike.
That came after last week's dovish Fed and hawkish ECB and BoE meetings and Fed speakers' pushback against big 2024 rate cut pricing.
EUR/USD rose 0.3% in line with the Bunds-Treasury yields spreads rebound fostered by more ECB policymakers arguing against early 2024 rate cuts with disinflation metrics not yet met. But German Ifo business sentiment worsened, creating risk of a second quarterly GDP drop and thus recession reading.
EURUSD is trending downThe euro gained 1.08% to $1.0991, the highest since Nov. 29. It is on track for its biggest daily percentage gain since Nov. 14.
The ECB kept rates steady and pushed back against bets on imminent cuts to interest rates on Thursday by reaffirming that borrowing costs would remain at record highs despite lower inflation expectations.
“The ECB was unable to “out-dove” yesterday's pivot by the Fed. The ECB continues to signal that rate hikes are done but their updated economic projections show no reason to hurry towards less restrictive policy,” said Samuel Zief, head of global FX strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank in London.
Gold trading trends and strategies todayFocusing on technical analysis, XAU/USD retains a bullish outlook, although its upward journey may encounter temporary setbacks. This means there could be transient pullbacks in the uptrend, especially if overbought conditions are reached. We are not there yet, but the 14-day RSI indicator is heading in that direction,
In terms of major levels to watch, resistance looms at $2,050. On further strength, the focus shifts to May’s peak near $2,075. Previous attempts to breach this barrier on a sustained basis have been unsuccessful, so history could repeat itself on a retest. However, if a decisive breakout materializes, a rally toward the 2023 swing high becomes a realistic prospect.
On the other hand, if upside momentum wanes and sellers spark a reversal, the first line of defense against a bearish attack appears at $2,010. Maintaining this floor is crucial; a failure to do so could reinforce downward pressure, exposing trendline support near $1,990. Below this threshold, all eyes will be on the 50-day simple moving average.
TVC:GOLD SELL 2038 - 2040
✔️TP1: 2033
✔️TP2: 2028
🚫SL: 2048
Gold trading ideasGold rose to around $2,030 an ounce on Thursday, hitting its strongest levels in a week as the dollar and Treasury yields weakened sharply after the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and signaled three rate cuts in 2024.
Fed officials expect to lower rates by 75 basis points in 2024, more aggressive than indicated in September’s projections, and forecast softer inflation this year and next.
Markets are now pricing in a more than 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in March next year.
Investors now look ahead to policy decisions from other major central banks including the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.
OANDA:XAUUSD SELL 2038 - 2036
✔️TP1: 2033
✔️TP2: 2028
🚫SL: 2041
EURUSD is trending downThe Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates on hold in a decision at 1900 GMT, and how the dollar moves afterward will depend on whether policymakers counter recent growing expectations for rate cuts next year, UniCredit Research analysts say in a note. UniCredit doesn't expect the Fed to "push back firmly against recent market expectations of aggressive rate cuts," which means EUR/USD could stabilize above 1.08. However, if the Fed suggests rate-cut expectations are overdone, the DXY dollar index should rally further above 104 and EUR/USD would retreat, albeit likely staying above 1.07, UniCredit says. EUR/USD trades flat at 1.0790 while the DXY rises 0.1% to 103.924.
Today's gold trading strategyGold was subdued around $1,980 an ounce on Wednesday, holding near its lowest levels in three weeks as investors cautiously awaited the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.
The US central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady, but traders will focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary amid bets of rate cuts in the first half of 2024.
Still, a robust US jobs report and upside risks to inflation could prompt policymakers to take a less dovish stance than what market participants anticipate.
Meanwhile, data released on Tuesday showed that US consumer inflation figures for November came largely in line with forecasts.
Investors also look ahead to monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England on Thursday.
OANDA:XAUUSD XAUUSD BUY 1977 - 1975
✔️TP1: 1982
✔️TP2: 1987
🚫SL: 1970
EURUSD is likely to rise againThe Indian rupee opened marginally higher on December 12 tracking gains in local equity and Asian currencies.
At 9.10am, the home currency was trading at 83.37 a dollar, up 0.03 percent from its previous close of 83.39.
Traders awaiting CPI and IIP data due later today. India's headline inflation rate likely jumped to 5.8 percent in November from October's 4.87 percent, according to a Moneycontrol survey of 15 economists, with an unfavourable base effect and resurgence in prices of vegetables and pulses propelling inflation to a three-month high.
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Recent US economic data surpassed expectations, showcasing a drop in unemployment claims from 3.9 percent to 3.7 percent. Non-farm payrolls hit 199K and average hourly earnings rose by 0.4 percent, outperforming projections. As a result, expectations for rate cuts in March and May decreased to 43 percent and 76 percent from 63 percent and 85 percent respectively.
Attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy, with signs pointing towards the Fed taking the lead in rate-cut initiatives, traders said.
Asian currencies were trading higher. Japanese yen was up 0.38 percent, Thai Baht rose 0.23 percent, China Offshore 0.12 percent, Singapore dollar 0.1 percent, South Korean won and Philippines peso 0.08 percent each.
The dollar index, which measures the US currency’s strength against major currencies, was trading at 104.0032, down 0.09 percent from its previous close of 104.095.Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Gold trading ideas todayThere was little oscillation during the Asian session last Friday. After ascending to $2034, gold plummeted below $2000 after the employment data was released. Moreover, gold once reached $1995, and then rebounded above $2000 after gaining support, ending the two consecutive gains with a big bearish candle, and returning to a weak pattern. At present, gold fell from highs and lost the previous gain in the weekly chart, indicating a downward bearish signal. Nonetheless, gold showed an oversold pattern in the 1H chart, and the MACD located at the oversold area to form a golden cross, suggesting a possible rebound in the 1H chart today. Thus, investors should focus on the resistance near $2009, and aggressive investors can go short with small positions there. Today, the trading range will be from $1986 to $2009, in which investors can buy low and sell high.
TVC:GOLD XAUUSD SELL 1996 - 1998 - 2000
✔️TP: 1086
🚫SL: 2005
EURGBP | COULD BE A GOOD SELL Overall market direction is bearish, The monthly pivot seems to have broken on the daily at least, likely its going to touch the wedge or bearish flag tp, if all breaks then tp3, we need a solid break of 4h support to confirm this trade 100%, but I feel like the patterns are already enough to push this through. 😊✅
EURUSD tends to decrease when it meets support and will increaseEUR/USD rallied vigorously last month, but has sold off in recent days, with prices slipping and closing below the 200-day moving average last week – a bearish technical event. If the pair deepens its pullback in the coming days, a retest of the 50-day SMA could come any minute. Continued weakness may shift focus towards trendline support near 1.0620.
Conversely, if EUR/USD stages a turnaround and charges higher, technical resistance is visible near 1.0820, but further gains could be in store on a push above this threshold, with the next area of interest at 1.0960, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July/October decline. Continued strength may catalyze a retest of November’s highs.
$BTCUSDT have a chance to move down, but then turn backBINANCE:BTCUSDT more probable that it will move more down, achieve point of overselling and then be ready to move back to the 36-40k.
Does not constitute a recommendation.
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Gold broke the upward price channel and tended to decreaseGold edges higher in the early morning Asian session in a likely position adjustment, with focus on U.S. CPI data and the FOMC meeting this week. The precious metal is still holding above $2,000/oz, a key short-term support level, Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and forex.com, says in an email. Gold has to hold this level in order to sustain its recent bullish bias, Razaqzada says. Otherwise, there could be a deeper retracement, with subsequent major support in the $1,950/oz area, which includes the 200-day average, Razaqzada adds. Spot gold is up 0.1% at $2,006.58/oz.
OANDA:XAUUSD XAUUSD SELL 2008 - 2010,2018-2020
✔️TP1: 2003
✔️TP2: 1998
🚫SL: 2025
Today's gold trading ideaYesterday, gold prices edged higher to $2036 in the Asian session and then fell rapidly to around $2017. After gaining support, gold prices rebounded to around $2025 and finally closed with a small bull candle, which also ended the 2 consecutive declines. The market began to stabilize. Investors who want to go short need to be cautious and should not chase the market to sell low. Instead, they should go short with small positions after a rebound. At the daily level, as the MACD formed a death cross at a high level, the retreat is still not over. However, a golden cross is likely to show in the 4-hour chart. If gold can rebound to around $2052 and form a local head and shoulders top pattern, perhaps the daily pullback will be smoother. The upper edge of volatility range should be higher today. The resistance is near $2041, with further resistance at the shoulder position of $2052. Today's reference trading range is $2017-$2041, and aggressive traders can buy low and sell high in the range.
❌❌❌: Close all orders when there is news.
OANDA:XAUUSD XAUUSD SELL 2038 - 2040
✔️TP1: 2033
✔️TP2: 2028
🛑SL: 2045
EURUSD is likely to fall, touching supportThe euro EURUSD inched 0.07% lower to $1.0757, its lowest point since Nov. 14. The single currency is down 1% this week and is on course for the steepest weekly decline since May.
Traders are betting that there is about an 85% chance that the ECB cuts interest rates at the March meeting, with almost 150 basis points' worth of easing priced by the end of next year.
The question of a rate cut could emerge in 2024, ECB member and Bank of France head Francois Villeroy de Galhau told a French paper in an interview published on Wednesday.
Villeroy said that "disinflation is happening more quickly than we thought".
The ECB will set interest rates on Thursday next week and is all but certain to leave them at the current record high of 4%, although the focus will be on comments from officials about rates outlook.
A slim majority of economists in a Reuters poll expect the ECB to cut rates in the second quarter of next year, earlier than previously thought, with a new tug of war on the exact timing of the first cut emerging.
The dollar has found its footing this month after a 3% drop in November as traders ramp up rate cut bets for other central banks.
XAUUSD : Gold's target today will slowly increase again until itGold's target today will slowly increase again until it reaches 2050. If gold breaks 2050, gold will go up to 2061, then gold will fall sharply next week.
The prospect of lower interest rates is still an important factor supporting gold prices, but analysts say investors do not want to place big bets before the US Department of Labor releases the November jobs report and before the meeting. Fed monetary policy on December 12-13.
TD Securities experts said that gold may face selling pressure in the near future. After conquering a new all-time high, the precious metal has been unable to hold on to gains and is now trading near the key psychological level of $2,000 an ounce.
Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, said the gold price uptrend has ended and paused after the recovery, and the $2,000/ounce level will probably be the short-term floor for the gold market.
Rising gold prices are prompting some Indians to trade in gold jewelry for new pieces, amid rising demand for gold during the wedding season in India, the largest consumer of the precious metal. after China.
More Indians want to reuse their gold and higher prices mean imports will remain under pressure, said Surendra Mehta, National Secretary of the Indian Bullion and Jewelery Association. in the coming months.
A segment of consumers actively buys gold to meet wedding-related needs, but the majority of people are staying away from this expensive market.
Mr. Ashish Pethe, a partner at jewelry company Waman Hari Pethe Jewelers, said: “Wedding jewelry shopping is in full swing as this is the peak of the wedding season. Indian gold prices fluctuate around 60,000 Rupees ($720) for 10 grams and some consumers tend to exchange old jewelry for new jewelry."