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EURUSD escalating tensions between the EU and ItalyEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1487 Key Resistance: 1.1487 - 1.1522 - 1.1540 - 1.1558 Key Support: 1.1460 - 1.1435 - 1.1412 - 1.1396 Day Trading Range: 1.1420 - 1.1535 Technical Indicator: RSI: The RSI shows mixed bearish trend ahead. Moving Average: SMA 100 (1.1506) & SMA 50 (1.1499) both are strong resistance for EURUSD today. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1487 with targets at 1.1512 & 1.1536 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1487 look for further downside with 1.1458 & 1.1434 as targets. Fundamental: Italian Risk Continue: “Italian Deputy PM Salvini yesterday met with far-right former French presidential candidate Marie Le Pen, where the two publicly agreed that ‘dancing-man’ Juncker is the “real enemy” of Europe: perhaps that’s why the guy was shuffling from side to side in public, to make himself a harder target for populists?” “With the Italian bond and stock market making its own negative judgement on the Italian desire not to have to embrace Teutonic hair-shirt fiscal policy in a febrile socio-economic environment, Salvini added “If one had evil thoughts, he would think there are people betting on the spread because they don’t want Italy to grow and create jobs.” And there was also little sign of any retreat or surrender to the bond market or the European Commission: “We will not backtrack, we will not backtrack,” Salvini insisted, adding that “Speculators acting like Soros are betting on Italy’s collapse to buy at discount prices the healthy companies, and there are many of them, that have remained in this country.” The EURUSD closes yesterday on bearish note yesterday owning to high level of dovish pressure on common currency influenced by escalating tensions between the EU and Italy, over the budget approved a couple of weeks ago. European equities collapsed to multi-month lows on Monday, with banking-related equities leading the slump, as Italian government bond yields surged to over 4-year highs, with Italian Salvini pointing a finger on Brussels for the bonds’ sell-off and Deputy PM Di Maio claiming that anti-austerity views will grow stronger across the continent, meanwhile the pair hit a new 6-week low at 1.1459 during yesterday’s market hours. The EUR/USD is trading flat and steady in early Tuesday action just shy of the 1.15 handle as the pair holds close to near-term lows. Italy headlines remain a drag on the EUR, with Italian bonds continuing to under perform against their major benchmark peers as political confidence crumbles, and the downside pull of the Italian government’s budget concerns is poorly timed, with broader markets already suffering a lack of confidence at the hands of rising US Treasury bond yields and increasing discomfort surrounding global trade, and this week could see the EUR/USD take a further haircut. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
EURO under pressure from higher interest rateEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1516 (CMP 1.1499) Key Resistance: 1.1520 - 1.1540 - 1.1558 - 1.1580 - 1.1610 Key Support: 1.1491 - 1.1476 - 1.1448 - 1.1428 - 1.1410 Technical Indicator: RSI: Indicator shows mixed bearish trend ahead. Moving Average: SMA 50 (1.1510) & SMA 100 (1.1522) strong resistance for EURUSD today. Technical Trade View: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1500 with targets at 1.1530 & 1.1560 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1500 look for further downside with 1.1476 & 1.1450 as targets. Fundamental: EURUSD bulls have managed to hold support, next, they are likely to start thinking of increasing the buying and trying to push the euro higher. It may not be an easy task against the dollar which has been getting a lot of support from the Fed, of late. We have seen the dollar being well supported as the Fed has been hiking rates as per schedule and as per expectations of the market which has only increased its status as being one of the most stable currencies around, to invest in during times of crisis. This has been the case with the dollar for long but that feeling has only increased in recent times. The dollar has been further supported by the talk from the Fed Chief Powell who has made it clear that the rate hike cycle is not close to its end as yet and this has only further boosted the dollar. Under these circumstances, it is to the credit of the euro bulls that they have managed to hold the support region around 1.15 but the move higher is only going to get more and more difficult in the days ahead. The economic news on the calendar is pretty much limited as of today and hence we can expect the euro to consolidate and range for most of the day. Chinese equities took a big hit after traders returned from a week-long holiday. Efforts by the People’s Bank of China to free more than $100 billion in liquidity through cutting the reserve requirement ratio were not enough to offset the fear of slowing growth, the escalated trade dispute, and the rise in U.S. interest rates. The CSI 300 fell 3.6% late morning led by the technology sector as investors had the chance to respond to reports claiming that Chinese intelligence agents planted microchips to hack big tech firms and U.S. government agencies. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
EURO looking ahead US NFP TodayEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1490 Key Resistance: 1.1520 - 1.1545 - 1.1568 - 1.1590 Key Support: 1.1490 - 1.1455 - 1.1532 - 1.1512 Day Trading Range: 1.1440 - 1.1560 Technical Indicator: RSI: Indicator shows mixed bearish trend. Moving Average: SMA 50(1.1511) & SMA 100(1.1539) strong resistance for pair today. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1490 with targets at 1.1522 & 1.1548 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1490 look for further downside with 1.1450 & 1.1422 as targets. Fundamental: Concerns on Italian politics eased somewhat on Thursday and allowed spot to rebound from recent lows in the 1.1460 region. In addition, news citing the ECB was discussing its reinvestment policy also lent some support to the single currency. However, the bull run met strong resistance in the 1.1540/45 band, forcing the pair to recede to the current 1.1500 zone. In the meantime, spot is expected to remain under pressure amidst rising US yields while further range bound should be seen ahead of the release of US Non-farm Payrolls for the month of September. Earlier in the session, German Factory Orders expanded 2.0% MoM during August, surpassing estimates. In addition, Producer Prices rose more than expected 0.3% inter-month during the same period and 3.1% on a yearly basis. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
EURUSD comes under further pressure and navigate the 1.1480 areaEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1530 (CMP 1.1584) Day Trading Range: 1.1535 - 1.1420 Key Resistance: 1.1498 - 1.1520 - 1.1535 - 1.1555 Key Support: 1.1465 - 1.1440 - 1.1408 - 1.1388 Technical Indicator: RSI: The indicator having hidden bullish divergence but still moving below 50 level. Moving Average: SMA 50 (1.1530) & SMA 100 (1.1562) strong resistance for EURUSD today. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.1518 with targets at 1.1460 & 1.1410 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1.1518 look for further upside with 1.1565 & 1.1595 as targets. Fundamental: This helped the dollar to gain some strength over the last few months and just when we were thinking that the bulls were getting tired and that we could see a reversal in the fortunes of the dollar, we are seeing another boost being given to the dollar by the Fed Chief Powell. His speech was scheduled late in the day yesterday and though not much was expected from it and the impact from that was expected to be minimal, it was anything but that. He said that the interest rates were still accommodating and made it very clear that further interest rate hikes could be along the way in the coming months. What we are looking at now is some serious strength in the dollar with some strong support from the Fed, which was quite unexpected as far as the market is concerned. The Fed under the new Chief Powell seems to be doing a good job of speaking its mind and giving some clear messages to the market and it had followed the path that it had laid out for itself at the beginning of the year. Looking ahead, there are no scheduled events in Euroland, whereas September’s Factory Orders, the usual weekly report on the labour market and Challenger Job Cuts are all due across the pond. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
Battle for the bulls and the bears for control of EURUSD EURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1538 (CMP 1.1573) Key Support: 1.1555 - 1.1532 - 1.1510 - 1.1490 Key Resistance: 1.1588 - 1.1612 - 1.1628 - 1.1645 Day Trading Range: 1.1628 - 1.1490 Technical Indicator: Moving Average: SMA 50 (1.1566) strong support & SMA 100 (1.1603) strong resistance for the day. RSI: The indicator shows bullish divergence for the day. Technical Trade View: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1538 with targets at 1.1610 & 1.1645 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1538 look for further downside with 1.1510 & 1.1488 as targets. Fundamental: After bottoming out in the boundaries of the 1.15000 neighborhood in the first half of the week, the pair seems to have recovered some attention and is now up around a cent since those lows. However, Italian politics remains a hot topic for the time being, with the budget deficit still in centre stage. It is worth mentioning that the official budget submission to the EU will be on October 15. In addition, some renewed weakness around the greenback is also bolstering the corrective up move in the pair. Looking ahead, final September Services PMIs in Euroland is due next seconded by EMU’s Retail Sales. Across the pond, the labour market will come to the fore in light of the release of the ADP report, while the key ISM Non-manufacturing will also grab attention. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has called a budget meeting with his ministers to go over Italy's budget discussions further, as holiday-impinged markets tread on the volatile side on reaction to Euro-centric headlines. Key highlights Conte will be meeting with select members of his cabinet as they look for more ways to squeeze some wiggle room out of the European nation's books, with headlines on Tuesday sending the EUR lower after Italy decided to stick to their guns and plan for a 2.4% budget deficit in fiscal year 2019, bringing Italy's budget deficit beyond the 2% target set out under EU guidelines. Conte and his posse have attempted to smooth over frictions in markets regarding Italy's budget, promising to reduce Italy's deficit to 2.2% in fiscal year 2020 and dropping it further to the 2.0% barrier by FY 2021, but these proposals lie several years down the road, and traders will be keeping a close eye on the Italian bond yields this week, bearing in mind that the previous government was targeting a deficit of just 0.6% in 2019. The region around 1.15 is likely to be the key and this would be the region of battle for the bulls and the bears for control of this pair and there is likely to be a lot of stops below this. Any break below this region would trigger these stops and would accelerate the move lower and then the bears would be in control. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
Today EURUSD eye on Fed Chair Powell SpeaksEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1594 Key Resistance: 1.1568 - 1.1594 - 1.1622 - 1.1645 Key Support: 1.1522 - 1.1498 - 1.1465 - 1.1445 Day Trading Range: 1.1622 - 1.1498 Technical Indicator: Moving Average: SMA 50 (1.1593) & SMA 200 (1.1653) strong resistance for EURUSD today. RSI: The indicator moving oversold level below 30, soon it will go up side Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: short @ 1.1594 with targets @ 1.1535 & 1.1512 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1.1594 look for further upside with 1.1622 & 1.1658 as targets. Fundamental: The euro countries' eco. calendar is pretty light with EU PPI being the only data due out. However, we have ECB Galhau speaking in Paris at 14:30GMT. There is EU Eco. and Financial Affairs Council meeting (ECOFIN) today which starts at 09:00GMT and ECB VP de Guindos will participate. The Euro is inching lower against the U.S. Dollar early Tuesday after plunging 0.22% on Monday. Pressing the single currency were renewed concerns about Italy’s budget deficit. According to reports, Italian Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio accused European Union officials of deliberately upsetting financial markets with negative comments about Italy’s budget plans. He was essentially firing a shot at European Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici, who earlier in the session said that Rome’s plans were “obviously” deviating from EU rules on fiscal discipline. The markets opened on Monday to the news that the United States, Mexico and Canada managed to agree on a new deal. The new trade deal replaces the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and is now called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) deal. The deal is said to give greater access to the U.S to Canadian dairy markets in return for allowing extra imports of Canadian cars. Economic data from the U.S. was slightly. Construction spending was seen rising less than expected August. Official data showed that spending on construction rose just 0.1% in August on a month over month basis. The ISM’s manufacturing PMI showed the index easing to 59.8 in August compared to 61.3 in July. The data also missed estimates of 60.1. However, the USD managed to close on a high note, maintaining the gains from last Friday. The day ahead will be marked by the RBA’s monetary policy meeting. No changes are expected to the interest rate which stands at 1.50%. The European trading session is relatively quiet. Spain will be releasing its unemployment change followed by the construction PMI data from the UK. The median estimates put the activity in the construction sector to ease slightly to 52.8 from 52.9. Later in the evening, the NY trading session will see the Fed chair, Jerome Powell speaking. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
EURUSD Under Pressure Focus Shifts to US FOMC MeetingEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1765 Day Trading Range: 1.1800 - 1.1690 Key Resistance: 1.1760 - 1.1788 - 1.1810 - 1.1835 Key Support: 1.1735 - 1.1718 - 1.1694 - 1.1674 Technical Indicator: RSI: The indicator shows bullish divergence but still moving around level 50. Moving Average: SMA 100(1.1735) strong support, SMA 20(1.1756) & SMA 55(1.1757) strong resistance for EURUSD today. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.1765 with targets at 1.1728 & 1.1700 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1.1765 look for further upside with 1.1780 & 1.1798 as targets. Fundamental: The common currency rose to 1.1815 yesterday after the European Central Bank (ECB) head Mario Draghi took note of the "relatively vigorous" pick-up in the underlying price pressures and rising wage-price inflation. However, he added further that the pick-up in inflation is conditional on interest rates staying low through next summer, dashing hopes of an early rate hike. As a result, the common currency surrendered gains and ended up creating a bearish outside-day doji, which indicates the rally from the Aug. 15 low of 1.301 has likely run out of steam. Global markets saw a mixed dollar in North American market hours after ECB President Draghi’s economic update to the EU Parliament sent the euro through 1.18 temporarily on hawkish rhetoric, signaling the ECB’s forward intentions when he explained that “a relatively vigorous pick-up in underlying inflation” was underway, underscoring an improving labor market and signs of shortages, supporting the ECB’s expectations of higher wages. EUR/USD jumped from 1.1750 to 1.1815 – a three-month high – on Draghi’s speech. However completely retraced a few hours later, as ECB chief undercuts his own bullish comments on inflation with warnings over potential effects from protectionism, and also perhaps due to the unease surrounding Italy’s fiscal plans and indeed ahead of the FOMC later this week. The EUR/USD could feel the pull of gravity amid rising treasury yields, having created a big outside-day doji candle yesterday. EU’s Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom commented that “talks between the EU and the US remain in an exploratory stage, and getting down to the hard details of a limited trade agreement between the two are not going to begin until a trade meeting slated for early November ” while at a United Nations General Assembly. Investors turn their focus back on this week’s key event risk – the highly anticipated FOMC decision on Wednesday, where the central bank is widely anticipated to raise interest rates by 25bps. The US 10yr treasury yield made a four-month high at 3.09% and the Fed sensitive 2yr yields hit 2.83% to make a fresh high since 2008. The Fed fund futures yields continued to price 100% chance of a hike on Wednesday, while the chance of another hike in Dec is priced at 90%. On the data front, the German wholesale price index (WPI) is scheduled for release at 06:00 GMT. Further, ECB's Praet is scheduled to speak at 08:25 GMT and ECB's Coeure is due to speak at 12:00 GMT. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
European Session EURUSD looking Range tarding Breakout TodayEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1685 Day Trading Range: 1.1630 - 1.1740 Key Resistance: 1.1698 - 1.1722 - 1.1735 - 1.1748 Key Support: 1.1685 - 1.1668 - 1.1645 - 1.1610 Technical Indicator: RSI: RSI facing toward upside moving above 50 level. Moving Average: SMA200 (1.1633) & SMA100 (1.1670) strong support for EURUSD. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.1685 with targets at 1.1645 & 1.1628 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1.1685 look for further upside with 1.1715 & 1.1735 as targets. Fundamental: The pair regained some positive traction during the Asian session on Wednesday, albeit remained well below the 1.1700 handle as investors continue to assess the latest escalation of US-China trade tensions. There isn’t any market-moving economic data due for release from the Euro-zone, while the US economic docket offers housing market data – building permits and housing starts. The range bound price action is expected to continue in near future as the spread between the US and German bond yields for 10-year bonds currently stands at 257 basis points – the highest level since Aug. 8. The daily chart of the EUR/USD is flashing a bullish reversal pattern, but a breakout may remain elusive, as the bond yield differentials are rising in the EUR-negative manner. Today In US Session Mr Draghi speech more important for pair. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
European Session EURUSD Focus on Draghi Speech & Trade WarEURUSD Technical Overview: Day Trading Range: 1.1665 - 1.1790 Key Resistance: 1.1720 - 1.1745 - 1.1768 - 1.1788 Key Support: 1.1688 - 1.1665 - 1.1635 - 1.1612 Technical Indicator: RSI: Indicators shows upside bias in a day. MACD: MacD having bullish trend. Moving Avg: SMA55 (1.1626) & SMA200 (1.1568) are strong support for EURUSD. Technical Idea: Pivot: 1.1665 Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1665 with targets at 1.1728 & 1.1755 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1665 look for further downside with 1.1635 & 1.1614 as targets. Fundamental: A bigger rally above 1.17 could be on the cards if ECB's Draghi plays down risks arising out of trade wars and the stock markets pick up a strong bid. On the economic data front, the final Euro-zone CPI confirmed the flash readout of 2.0% y/y in August and remained supportive of the positive tone surrounding the shared currency. The US President Donald Trump imposed 10% tariffs on about $200 billion worth of Chinese imports and warned to pursue tariffs on $267 billion of additional imports if China takes retaliatory action. As of writing this article, the pair is trading at 1.1688 up 0.04% on the day. Today’s key focus would be on the ECB President Mario Draghi’s scheduled speech, where any relevant comments related to monetary policy should influence the common currency and provide some meaningful trading opportunities. Apart from this, the economic docket lacks any major market moving releases and hence, the USD price dynamics might continue to act as a key driver of the pair’s momentum through Tuesday’s trading session. Although odds of a big risk-on move are quite low, as the prospects of a breakthrough deal between the US and China are quite low. The recovery is likely associated with conciliatory comments from China's commerce minister. More importantly, the risk assets seem to have taken heart from the fact that the Trump administration imposed a 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports worth $200 billion as opposed to expectations of 25 percent levy. This is evident from the recovery in the JPY crosses. For instance, the EUR/JPY pair witnessed a 70 pip recovery from session lows in Asia and could extend gains further if the global stock markets pick up a strong bid, although odds of a big risk-on move are quite low, as the prospects of a breakthrough deal between the US and China are quite low. The EUR/USD may also find acceptance above 1.17 if the European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi downplays the trade tensions and reiterates that the QE program will likely end in December. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Long
by yoCryptoManic
2
European Session EURUSD Boost From ECB UpdateEURUSD Technical Analysis Day Trading Range: 1.1635 - 1.1755 Pivot: 1.1665 Key Support: 1.1690 - 1.1665 - 1.1635 - 1.1600 Key Resistance: 1.1720 - 1.1735 - 1.1752 - 1.1775 Technical Indicators: MACD: MacD is having Strong Bullish volume. Moving Avg: SMA100 (1.1624) & SMA200 (1.1570) Strong Support for EURUSD. Technical Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1665 with targets at 1.1718 & 1.1735 in extension. Technical Alternative scenario: below 1.1665 look for further downside with 1.1635 & 1.1605 as targets. Fundamental: The EUR/USD has found acceptance above the 100-day moving average for the first time since April 25. The common currency picked up a strong bid yesterday after the European Central Bank (ECB) sounded optimistic about prospects for inflation, bolstering the already bullish technical setup. Today’s data is US meets expectation the possibility for USD to gain upper hand against EURO before market closes on Friday is very low as it will scale down investors’ expectations for faster Fed rate hikes. Meanwhile, an above-forecast reading would reinforce expectations that domestic demand would cushion the US economy from external shocks and could put a bid under the USD. Risk sentiment in market has died down a bit as President Trump tweeted that he felt no pressure to do a trade deal with China, causing some unwind of the positive risk sentiment despite his government reaching out to China for trade related talks. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Long
by yoCryptoManic
6
European Session EURUSD eye on ECB & US CPI DataEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1610 Key Resistance: 1.1655 - 1.1678 - 1.1700 - 1.1734 Key Support: 1.1600 - 1.1574 - 1.1555 - 1.1528 Technical Indicators: RSI: Indicator shows upside bias, moving above 50 level. MACD: MacD having buyer side volume. Moving Avg: SMA100 (1.1617) & SMA55 (1.1603) support for the day. Technical Most Likely Scenario: long @ 1.1627 with targets @ 1.1650 & 1.1670 in extension. Technical Alternative scenario: below 1.1610 look for further downside with 1.1585 & 1.1570 as targets. Fundamental: The EUR/USD has cleared a key trendline resistance, possibly on renewed hopes of US-China trade talks. The ECB is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, so the focus is on the latest staff forecasts and Draghi's tone at the presser. The markets are expecting President Draghi to sound dovish today, courtesy of the recent slide in inflation. More importantly, the ECB's QE tapering is set to begin next month and hence, the bank will likely adopt a dovish stance to cushion the bond markets and the economy from the impact of the drop in the bond purchases. As a result, the bull breakout witnessed in the EUR/USD 4-hour chart could fail, especially if the US August CPI, due at 12:30 GMT, beats estimates by a wide margin, reinforcing hawkish Fed expectations. On the other hand, if Draghi sounds neutral/hawkish, then the common currency could quickly jump to the recent highs above 1.1700. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Long
by yoCryptoManic
European Session EURUSD Playing Game with TradersEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1575 Day Trading Range: 1.1530 - 1.1630 Key Support: 1.1575 - 1.1545 - 1.1530 Key Resistance: 1.1600 - 1.1620 - 1.1635 Technical Indicators: Moving Avg: SMA100(1.1571) strong support & SMA200 (1.1611) strong resistance for the day. MACD: MacD still having buying volume & looking toward selling pressure. Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1575 with targets at 1.1605 & 1.1620 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1575 look for further downside with 1.1555 & 1.1525 as targets. Fundamental: The Euro is trading slightly higher at mid-week, recovering from two-weeks of selling pressure. Traders are paying attention to Brexit negotiations, global trade issues and rising U.S. Treasury yields. Early Wednesday the Euro is holding steady ahead of reports on Italian Industrial Production, Euro Zone Industrial Production, and the Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate. The big event is in the U.S. with the release of the August Producer Price Index (PPI) at 1230 GMT. The PPI is expected to rise 0.2%, up from the previously reported flat performance in July. Core PPI is also expected up inch higher to 0.2%, up from the previously reported 0.1% gain. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
European Session EURUSD Looking US NFP Data TodayTechnical Overview: Day Trading Range: 1.1580 - 1.1710 Pivot: 1.1635 (EURUSD CMP 1.1642) Key Resistance: 1.1662 - 1.1688 - 1.1710 Key Support: 1.1630 - 1.1610 - 1.1580 Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.1634 with targets at 1.1608 & 1.1578 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1.1634 look for further upside with 1.1664 & 1.1688 as targets. Technical Indicators: MACD: The MacD lacks upward momentum. Moving Avg: SMA200 (1.1580) & SMA100 (1.1577) strong support for the day. Price is above SMA, Short term bullish scenario. Fundamentals: Sino-U.S. Trade War Updates Remain Main Focus of Investors However, a break above the previous day’s high of 1.1659 may remain elusive, courtesy of escalating US-China trade tensions. Moreover, China is likely to retaliate in kind if the US goes ahead with the fresh round of tariffs. That said, a big rally towards 1.1733 (recent high) could be in the offing if the US average weekly earnings and non-farm payrolls figure for August, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT, misses estimates by a wide margin, adding credence to the argument put forward by the likes of Fed’s Bullard that the central bank should stop raising rates now. On the other hand, a big beat on the wage growth figure would reinforce hawkish Fed expectations, driving the US dollar higher across the board. While the Eurozone second-quarter GDP, due for release at 09:00 GMT could move the EUR pairs. Moving forward, a close above 1.1704 opens the door for a test of the 1.1840-52 area. Alternatively, a push back below support in the 1.1530-54 zone paves the way for a decline back to Augusts swing bottom and unless either of these price levels are breached the pair is expected move in range bound pattern trapped inside mentioned price levels. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
European Session EURUSD, Still in RangeEURUSD Technical Overview: Day Trading Range: 1.1570 - 1.1730. Pivot: 1.1615 Key Resistance: 1.1655 - 1.1682 - 1.1732 Key Support: 1.1605 - 1.1565 - 1.1520 Technical Trade Idea Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1615 with targets at 1.1660 & 1.1675 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1615 look for further downside with 1.1595 & 1.1570 as targets. Technical Indicators: MACD: Indicator shows upside momentum. Moving Avg: SMA100 (1.1560) & SMA200 (1.1583), strong support for today. Fundamentals: Falling Spread Between German and Italian Bonds Boost EURO in Broad Market Besides the ongoing Italian budget noise, it’s pretty quiet going in terms of local drivers for the EUR and Investors seem to have put off chasing any ECB policy normalization story. However, there is little out there that supports the case for long euro, albeit there have been some less negative wires on the political front with respect to Italy and Brexit updates and there have not been any EM nor fresh trade headlines to sink the dollar’s peers so far this week. US Greenback lost some ground on recovering momentum in EURO & GBP however skittish emerging market currencies helped limit the greenback’s retreat. The dollar may have pulled back from two-week highs but it is expected to stay well supported in the longer term, continuing to garner safe haven bids in the wake of weakness in emerging market currencies. On release front, today’s European calendar remains silent however macro data across key European markets were dovish yesterday while US Trade balance was well in line with expectations. Today’s market hours will see release of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventory and ADP Non-Farm employment change data and a hawkish outcome in same could help USD gain upper hand against the shared currency. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Long
by yoCryptoManic
European Session EURUSD Range Bound, Amied Strong $EURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1575 Day Trading Range: 1.1540 - 1.1635 Key Resistance: 1.1594 - 1.1622 - 1.1635 Key Support: 1.1555 - 1.1528 - 1.1510 Most Likely Scenario: long @ 1.1594 with targets @ 1.1610 & 1.1625 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1575 look for further downside with 1.1550 & 1.1530 as targets. Technical Indicators: StochRSI: The indicator shows upside momentum. MACD: MacD is having Bullish Divergence Line. Moving Avg: SMA100 (1.1540) strong support for the day & SMA200(1.1585) short term resistance. Fundamentals: A move above 1.1620 could be seen if the treasury yields retreat from the three-week highs clocked yesterday and the Eurozone retail sales, due at 9.30 GMT, beat estimates. However, if the 10-year treasury yield continues to rise, then the EUR/USD could come under pressure. Add to that, an uptick in the Italy-German yield spread could result in the pair testing yesterday’s lows with possibility for a bearish breach on current support level. USD traders returned from the Labor Day long weekend uninspired, but the week could see a return of the Greenback as trade war fears linger in market with investors cautiously observing how market would react once US President Trump implements tariff on Chinese goods worth $200 billion. Today’s calendar will see Markit composite PMI in Eurozone along with retail sales data and speech by ECB executive board member Peter Praet while US market will see release of trade balance data and Red book data. Thanks YoCryptoManic For Any Question, Please Comment.
by yoCryptoManic