IDX Composite - Take A Breath & Get Back to Running Track SoonHello traders & investors... how are you?
I hope all of you are healthy & prosperous.
Today, I try to capture the movement of IDX Composite for the next 6 months, 'till August 2021.
IDX Composite will tend to move sideways until June 2021 because the FY'20 earnings result might release "as expected", and Indonesia soon will entering the fasting month (mid of April'21), that may reduce daily transaction and drive IDX Composite slightly lower. Thereafter, start in Q3 2021 it will back to move in up trend in the moment of dividend seasons & Q2 2021 GDP release.
Gong Xi Fa Cai!
-AJ-
IDX
ANTM Jericho1.
EMA 55 : Biru
EMA 144 : Hijau
EMA 377 : Kuning
2.
Saat terjadi Cross antara (exponential moving average) EMA yang lebih kecil ke yang besar, contoh: EMA55 menembus EMA144 dan EMA377 maka grafik akan membentuk trend naik menuju batas Soft Resistance dan Strong Resistance yang sudah kita prediksi
Saat terjadi Cross antara (exponential moving average) EMA yang lebih besar ke yang kecil, contoh: EMA377 menembus EMA55 dan EMA144 maka grafik akan membentuk trend turun menuju batas Soft Support dan Strong Support yang sudah kita prediksi
3.
Kapan terjadi Double Death Cross dan Double Golden Cross
- Double Deathcross (saat EMA 55 menembus EMA 144 & 377 secara bersamaan saat grafik turun) terjadi pada sekitar Desember 2011
- Double Goldencross (saat EMA 55 menembus EMA 144 & 377 secara bersamaan saat grafik naik) terjadi pada Januari-Februari
2021 IDX:ANTM
MPMX Current Price at about 15% Div YieldFor MPMX looks good in fundamental as it has lower PBV around 0.34. Current price (575) has potential 15% Div Yield comparing current year DPS at 90 per share.
There is 450 price level if possible the price re-test it, will generate 20% div yield for next year.
EXCL Bearish TrendlineAfter sideways trendline of EXCL as I predicted before (hanging on Fibo 23.6), it broke out the support with Three Black Soldiers and the continuation of bearish signal is happened. Also confirmed with Stochastic RSI.
There isn't any reversal signal, so if it can rebound on Fibo 50, we will see again whether EXCL can break resistance on 2590 or not. Any thoughts?
Summary:
Not a buying signal right now
TP1 2700
TP2 2820
EXCL masih sideways?Trend bearish ditandai dengan Hanging Man lalu dilanjutkan dengan 3 CS bearish. Pada closing hari Jumat, tidak berhasil menunjukkan adanya reversal pattern. Namun EXCL masih ada di support fibo 23.6, jadi apakah masih akan sideways beberapa hari?
NB: analisis murni dari teknikal sederhana, belum dari berita beredar
Bearish sign MTDLLook like MTDL will face bearish phase after ascending triangle pattern fail and now it will test the major trendline. And if its breaked MTDL will fall to next support area as the picture roadmap drawed. Oscillator stochastic was confirmed that MTDL will fall because we found hiden bearish divergence.
BJTM 13%+ INDONESIA STOCKS EXCHANGEWE KNOW THAT DOW THEORY IS PRIMARY SECONDARY AND PRIMARY AGAIN
THE MARKET ALREADY SECONDARY REACTION AND NOW BJTM IS MAKING A BASE, A BASE IS LIKE A CAGE WHICH THE PRICE TRAP INSIDE THE CAGE, WE HAVE TO WAIT THE CONFIRMATION OF THE BREAKOUT OF THE CAGE, IF BREAKOUT THAN THE PRICE WILL RALLY MAKING HIS PRIMARY REACTION AGAIN,
THE TARGET PRICE AREA WILL BE 750 - 770
AND WHY A GREEN LINE AT 720? WHY THE TARGET PRICCE 750 - 770?
THE REASON IS SIMPLE,
THE GREEN LINE PRICE PROFIT AREA IS BY USING FIBONACCI PRICE PROJECTION (AB = CD) AND IT STOP AT 720, SO IS THE GAP AREA, WE CAN SEE 750 - 770 IS AN OPEN AND CLOSING GAP AREA WHICH CLUSTER TO FIBONACCI AB = CD
STOPLOSS AREA
630
WHY? BECAUSE IF WE BUY AT BREAK OUT AREA, AND THE PRICE ISNT CAPABLE TO RISE, AND DROP TO THE BASE (CAGE) AGAIN AND ALSO BREK THE BOTTOM OF THE BASE WE CAN ASSUME THAT SUPPLY IS MUCH HIGHER THAN THE DEMAND
DISCLAIMER ON!
IDX PGAS : ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS EXPLANATION AND HOW TO USE IT.ELLIOTT WAVE HAVE 5 WAVE BEFORE DO HIS CORRECTIVE WAVE,
PGAS CURRENTLY IN WAVE 3 TO 4
ELLIOTT WAVE, WAVE 1 - 2 ALREADY VALID @0.618
ELLIOT WAVE, WAVE 2-3 VALID 1.618
WE HAVE TO WAIT THE SECONDARY REACTION OF WAVE 3 - 4 @0.382 AND WE CAN ENTER AT THAT POINT WITH BULLISH HARAMI CANDLESTICK (THE INSIDE BAR) OR HAMMER, ENGULFING WHATEVER IT IS FOR THE ENTRY
AND WAVE 4 - 5 LENGTH HAVE TO BE SAME WITH WAVE 1 - 2 (AB = CD)
WE CAN MEASURE WITH FIBONACCI EXTENSION (HARMONIC PRICE PROJECTION) FROM WAVE 0 = A - WAVE 1 = B , AND THE WAVE 4 = C WE CAN SEE THE PRICE WILL STOP AT 2185
AFTER REACHING THAT POINT SHOULD BE A CORRECTIVE WAVE
THIS IS A TUTORIAL OR A SIMPLE WAY TO KNOW OR USE ELLIOTT WAVE
NO POINT OF ENTRY!
JUST A LESSON FOR WAVE ANALYSIS
THE FLAG PATTERN BTPS ROAD TO 4790BTPS FORMING A PATTERN CALLED BULLISH FLAG,
THIS PATTERN CAN LEAD BTPS TO @4790 (BUT HAVE TO BREAK THE FLAG TRENDLINE FIRST!)
AFTER BREAK AND THAT DAY THE CANDLE CLOSED ABOVE THE TRENDLINE IS THE KEY TO 4790
AFTER BREAK AND RALLY, PRICE HAVE TO RE-TEST (PULLBACK/SECONDARY REACTION) TO THE TRENDLINE.
CUTLOSS AREA @ 3930 OR BREAK THE LOWER TRENDLINE OF THE BTPS.
DISCLAIMER ON !
KAEF BULLISH PENNANT IDONESIA STOCKS EXCHANGEA BULLISH PENNANT IS A PATTERN OF CONTINUATION, KAEF ALREADY FORMED AND BREAK THE PENNANT TRENDLINE, WHICH WILL LEAD KAEF TO AROUND 3750-3800 FOR THE FIRST TARGET PRICE.
BEFORE START BULLISH IT MIGHT BE A PULL BACK TO THE AREA I MARK WITH A BLUE RECTANGLE (@3300~) IDX:KAEF
THE FIRST TARGET PRICE IS 3750 - 3950 (REASON: PENNANT TARGET PRICE)
THE SECOND TARGET PRICE IS 4170 - 4240 (REASON : FIBONACCI XAY : 1.618 CLUSTER WITH HARMONIC PRICEPROJECTION (HPP) : 78.6%)
THE LONG TERM IF THE TARGET PRICE ALL TIME HIGH WILL BE 4860 - 4970 (XAY : 2.618 CLUSTER WITH HPP : 1.272)
THE STOP LOSS AREA : 3090
DISCLAIMER ON!
TLKM - BULLISH REVERSAL - DOW THEORY (INDONESIA STOCKS EXCHANGE)TLKM BULLISH REVERSAL
AFTER SEVERAL ROUGH MONTHS OF ITS BEARISHNESS, TLKM START REVERSE TO BULLISH, FROM DOW THEORY WE KNOW THAT MARKET MOVE IN A PRIMARY, SECONDARY AND FOLLOWED BY PRIMARY AGAIN JUST LIKE AB = CD, TLKM ALREADY DO HIS PRIMARY AND SECONDARY BULLISH REACTION, NOW TLKM START TO FORMING HIS PRIMARY REACTION WHICH WILL LEAD TLKM TO AROUND 3700 - 3720
WHY THAT AREA?
THE REASON IS
1. WE CAN SEE A GAP AROUND 3700
2. THE GOLDEN RATIO OF 1.618 FIBONACCI EXTERNAL RETRACEMENT ALSO STOP AT 3720 (XAY).
SO THE FIRST POINT AND SECOND POINT CLUSTER AT THE SAME TIME
CUT LOSS AREA SHOULD BE
3150
REASON : 2ND SWING LOW ALREADY MAKE A HIGHER LOW AND IF BREAK THE FIRST LOWER LOW THEN IT MIGHT GO TO 3060 AND GO UP TO CHASE THE 3700 TARGET
3060 IS THE AREA OF FIBONACCI XAB FOR THE FIRST PRIMARY OF THE BULLISH
DISCLAIMER ON !