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Macro Monday 57 - Venezuela Update ( 5 charts)Macro Monday 57 - Venezuela Update I'll have more charts for you over the coming week but feel this is an important event that could help shape South America's economic trajectory over the coming 5 - 10 years Last week I shared the country that has the largest oil reserves in the world, Venezuela. I noted that Venezuela stands at a critical juncture, with the potential for a historic return to democracy by way of national election on 28th July 2024. Unfortunately, the authoritarian socialist incumbent President Nicolás Maduro appears to have "claimed" victory in the election, amidst many observations of election fraud and interference. At present the people of Venezuela have taken to the streets in protest, are toppling Maduro's statues and demanding him to leave office. Only an hour ago reports of counter forces apparently breached a barricade to Maduro's home. Many world leaders have called out Maduro on what they see as a false election victory. The international pressure is mounting on Maduro's régime. The world recognizes the violation of the peoples choice. The election might look like its a major loss for the people of Venezuela, however it appears to have invoked an incredible revolutionary type response from the people, it has captured the worlds attention, and the attention of the likes of Elon Musk and Javier Milei (Argentinian President) both calling for Maduro's exit. In response Maduro has called out Elon Musk, whom he calls his "arch-enemy" since his post earlier today. Clearly threatened, pressure is mounting on Maduro internally and from the International community. The election results could be the tipping point for the Venezuelans , it appears that change is in the air in and a new dawn is approaching with the world backing the Venezuelans who have clearly had enough. Lets hope for as peaceful a transition as possible. If successful, the country with the largest oil reserve in the world, that was once twice as rich as China, 4th ranked world economy (1st in Latin America), can return to its former glory. If such an event were to unfold, Venezuela, IMO, could lead South America out of a developing economy to a booming one within the decade. Charts in South America Please see South America and all its compressing pennant formations and ascending triangles. Few cup and handles too at present Peru is a clear leader with Argentina, however it does not hold the worlds largest oil reserve like Venezuela which appears to be about to make major political change. Chile - AMEX:ECH Brazil - AMEX:EWZ iShares Latin America ETF - AMEX:ILF MSCI Peru NTR Index (USD) - ICEEUR:MPU1! Argentina - AMEX:ARGT PUKA
ILong
by PukaCharts
Macro Monday 46 - South America Indexes Signaling Major Trend Macro Monday 46 Emerging Chart Trend in South America and Brazil Brazil is the largest economy in South America, followed by Argentina, Chile, Colombia, and Peru. These 5 countries together hold a huge 90% share of the South American economy. Today we will look at index charts for South America and Brazil to get an overall initial technical picture from a price standpoint of the aggregate in these regions. IShares Latin America 40 ETF - AMEX:ILF The iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) is a collection of the 40 largest Latin American equities by market cap. The index is heavily weighted in Financial Services which makes up 33% of the Index. Basic materials form 19% and Energy makes up 15% of the Index allocation. Interestingly NUBank NYSE:NUS has a large c.6% holding within the index. This is a stock I hold that has performed incredibly well and I have shared many bullish charts on NU. Incredible that a relatively New Bank has grown large enough to make it into the top 5 holdings here. The Top 5 companies in the ILF Index are: 1. Vale S.A. NYSE:VALE : 9.3% Allocation. This company is a global leader in iron ore production and the second-largest nickel producer (Basic Materials). 2. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras NYSE:PBR : 7.6% Allocation. Known as Petrobras, this is a multinational corporation in the petroleum industry (Energy). 3. Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. $ITUB. 6.5% Allocation. Itaú Unibanco is one of the largest banks in Brazil, providing a range of financial products and services (Financial Services). 4. Nu Holdings Ltd. NYSE:NU : 5.84% Allocation. Nu Holdings is a financial technology company that offers banking services and is known for its digital banking platform, Nubank (Financial Services). 5. Grupo Financiero Banorte, S.A.B. de C.V. SKILLING:GFNORTEO.MX : 5.36% Allocation. Banorte is one of the largest and most prominent financial institutions in Mexico (Financial Services) The Latin America 40 ILF Char SUBJECT CHART ABOVE What jumps from this chart? ▫️ Firstly we appear to forming a long term pennant style flag from which a break up is more likely than a break down. ▫️ We have been rejected from the upper diagonal line repeatedly and if we break above this line it would be a very good indication of an initial trend change. ▫️ We have dashed underside diagonal support line warns of lower prices if broken (historically has been useful). ▫️ We are above the 200 week SMA at present and we are challenging the PointOfControl (POC) Line. Summary South America 40 Index As this is a long term pennant style flag from a major increase in price action in the early 2000’s, a break above the long term diagonal resistance line would be a major signal of the beginning of a new bullish trend, keep in mind that such a price move would also demonstrate a break above POC (strong trading range to hold as support). We need to watch the diagonal underside support line (dashed line) for a break lower which would be an indication of significant weakness. Either direction will give us a good signal of how the largest companies in Latin America are performing and by extension South America. Now lets look at the largest performing country in South America, Brazil. Brazil Brazil is the 8th largest economy in the world and the only country in South America to make it into the top 10 world’s economies. Brazil is the top contributor to South American nominal GDP accounting for 61% of the increase in the South American economy (Int. $264 bn). In 2nd and 3rd place are Colombia (Int. $50 bn) and Peru (Int. $25 bn) with much lower contributions. Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the year 2023 grew 2.9% and is expected to grow by c. 2% in 2024, lower is anticipated mainly as a result of the delayed effects of monetary tightening. Brazil is considered a key financial center for South America. It has the largest economy in the region and is home to a number of significant financial institutions and stock exchanges. São Paulo, in particular, is recognized as the financial capital of Brazil and is a primary hub for international business activity in the country. Brazil is also a leading producer of a host of minerals, including iron ore, tin, bauxite (the ore of aluminum), manganese, gold, quartz, and diamonds and other gems, and it exports vast quantities of steel, automobiles, electronics, and consumer goods. iShares MSCI Brazil ETF - AMEX:EWZ The iShares Brazil ETF (EWZ) seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of Brazilian equities. The ETF tracks a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index designed to measure the performance of the large- and mid-capitalization segments of the equity market in Brazil. All this means is that Larger companies have a bigger impact on the index’s performance. The index is heavily weighted in Financial Services which makes up 25% of the Index. Energy at 22% and Basic materials at 16.6% of the Index allocation are 2nd and 3rd after Financial Services. The Top 5 companies in the ILF Index are: 1. Vale S.A. NYSE:VALE 3.SA : 11.3% Allocation. This is a mining company and one of the largest producers of iron ore and nickel in the world (Basic Materials) 2. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras $PETR4.SA & $PETR3.SA: 10.1% Allocation. Commonly known as Petrobras, this state-controlled company is involved in the energy sector, primarily focusing on the exploration, production, and distribution of oil and gas (Energy). 3. Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. $ITUB4.SA: 8.3% Allocation. Itaú Unibanco is one of the largest financial conglomerates in the Southern Hemisphere (Financial Services) 4. Banco Bradesco S.A. $BBDC4.SA: 8.0% Allocation. This is another major player in the Brazilian financial market, offering a wide range of banking and financial services (Financial Services) 5. WEG S.A. $WEGE3.SA: 3.5% Allocation. WEG is an industrial company that operates globally in the electric engineering, power, and automation technology areas (Industrials). The EWZ Chart What jumps from this chart? ▫️ Firstly we appear to forming a long term pennant from which a break up is more likely than a break down IMO. ▫️ We have been rejected from the upper diagonal line repeatedly and if we break above this line it would be a very good indication of an initial trend change. ▫️ We have dashed underside diagonal support line warns of lower prices if broken (historically has been useful). ▫️ We have yet to break above the 200 week SMA and we are challenging the PointOfControl (POC) Line. Summary Brazil Index A break above the long term diagonal resistance line would be a major signal of the beginning of a new bullish trend, keep in mind that such a price move would also demonstrate a break above POC (strong trading range to hold as support). We need to watch the diagonal underside support line (dashed line) for a break lower which would be an indication of significant weakness. Either direction will give us a good signal of how the largest companies in Brazil are performing and by extension South America (as Brazil is thee major contributor to South America. Overall Overall IF the Latin America ETF and the Brazil ETF break out of their respective pennants to higher levels and find support prior diagonal resistance lines, the 200 weekly SMA, and the POC, this could indicate a bullish trend in South America for years to come. It would then be worthwhile to then look at companies within Brazil and South America for trading and investing opportunities. All these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next few years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide to see how the South America market has performed. I hope its helpful. PUKA
AMEX:ILFLong
by PukaCharts
Portfolio Selected Visuals (PSV) vol IThis is a list of my personal portfolio selected ETFs with the simplest visuals, using MACD as the only technical indicator and the trend lines with breaks or breakdowns to give us a new series of PSV charts. ;-) Note that these are using Weekly charts, and a break out is qualified when there is a trendline break out accompanied by a MACD crossover (within a week or two). From left to right... GDX (Gold Miners ETF) qualified a break out on 31 Oct, after a higher low, but sees to have met resistance (red ellipse) ILF (LatAm ETF) is still within a trapped range. XLK (Technology ETF) qualified a break out on 14 Nov, after a higher low, but seems to have met resistance (red ellipse) soon after. GXC (China ETF) qualified a break out on 28 Nov, after a higher low. Appears to have another break out above a resistance line. XLE (Energy ETF) qualified a break out on 17 Oct, after a higher low, but seems to have broke down of support/resistance (red ellipse). INDY (India ETF) qualified a break out on 31 Oct, after a higher low, but seems to have met resistance (red ellipse). XME (Metal Mining ETF) qualified a break out on 24 Oct, after a higher low, but seems to have met resistance (red ellipse). EWS (Singapore ETF) qualified a break out on 14 Nov, without a higher low, and further qualified a better stronger break out pattern on 28 Nov. From this set of visuals, GXC and EWS are the front runners. GDX appears a close third.
AMEX:GXCLong
by Auguraltrader
The two most interesting macro chartsI find these two charts absolutely fascinating right now in the face of the geopolitical changes happening. This idea stems from a pretty simple question: Who stands to benefit the most should supply chains need to be retooled because our current providers fail? If the economy in China implodes due to civil unrest or a structural change in CCP/PRC leadership, where will the globe look to in order to replace that gap? Latin America and/or Africa. Yes, I know there's a shit load of assumptions, leaps in logic, etc. in this. I could write a novel on the mechanics of how this could theoretically play out. But just for a moment, think about it. We trade one cheap labor for another. We already have well-established supply chains in Latin America. We have geopolitical leverage over them and have been willing to push heavily to influence elections. Who knows. Anyways, again, I thought the charts were just so interesting in the wake of a sea of other charts that suggest things are just getting warmed up. The $ILF and $EZA are the most interesting macro charts to me right now.
AMEX:ILFLong
by rfc4
Latin America - the multiyear perspectiveJust by chance, the Latin America ETF (ILF) was noted to be doing very well this week as the S&P500 and friends are given a beating. In a bigger picture perspective, a descending triangle has been formed in the last 12 years. While the upside to resistance may be smaller than previously, it is also projected that IF and WHEN there is a breakout, Latin America would do a multiyear climb to 2.5X of what it is today. Technicals are just turning around, including a very bullish weekly candlestick last week, with MACD turning bullish. Overly optimistic or an amazing opportunity? I am not well versed in emerging markets, particularly Latin America. Do share your thoughts...
AMEX:ILFLong
by Auguraltrader
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