NZDUSD: Bullish Gartley with TCT Outlook This NZDUSD trade is something that I've been keeping tabs on for the past few weeks. In fact by this point I think my Live Trading Room & Sydnicate members are probably sick of me mentioning it. But during yesterday's FOMC events price action finally pushed down into the area that I was willing to buy at. Although i didn't get filled on the initial push (due to FOMC trading rules) I did get filled over the London session & currently have a long position.
On the 4 hour chart this is simple an advanced pattern trade, but if you were to take a look out on the higher timeframes you'll see that this is also a trend continuation play as well with a lot of legroom to the bullish side.
I just finished recording my Weekend Review video & this week's topic was "Building A Rules Based Trading Strategy" (Link below). The video reminded me of this trade because although I use a simple example of a TCT trading strategy in the video, advanced patterns can also be used as reasons for entries as well.
I'm a big fan of combining the two, however you have to be very care of when to shoot for extended targets & when not to or else you may end up sabotaging your system by accident. let me know what you think of the video guys!
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Akil Stokes
Ilovetrading
EURUSD: My FED Day OutlookAs many of you know today is FED day as the FOMC has its Interest rate Decision & Statement coming out today at 2pm (New York). The expectation is that there will be no changes made at this particular time so most of the “volatility” and “reaction” will be based off of the tone of the statement as trader hunt for any clues of when the rate hike may occur.
This is one of those fundamental events that I stay away from as we can potentially see some massive moves and larger spreads during those moves. Ever been stopped out of a position without your stops actually being hit? Yup!
Although I won’t be trading during it, I still like to perform my technical analysis and see if I can predict where price action may shoot too after all of the madness is said and done. After all I firmly believe that the technicals tell you where the market will go and the fundamentals just help push it there faster.
To the bearish side I have a potential Gartley pattern on the daily along with a level of previous structure support which could prove to be a good holding area. While to the bullish side I’m still eying up the intermediate level of resistance that we were looking at in yesterday’s trading session. (Here’s the video in case you missed it www.youtube.com
There’s more resistance to the upside but its way too far to be attacked today as it’s over 400pips away….but hey you never know, that’s why I don’t try and predict these things.
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at Trade Empowered
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EURUSD: BREAKING DOWN A KILLZONE on the Euro (VIDEO)Here's a video of the breakdown we performed on the EURUSD in this morning's Live Trading Room www.youtube.com
If you're interested in trading with me Live, check out our FREE 1 week trial. See you in the room!
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Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst
www.TradeEmpowered.com
EURJPY: Bullish Bat Pattern With Better EntryWanted to share with you one of the trades I got involved in after yesterday’s ECB reaction. It’s a bullish bat pattern on the EURJPY which is now offering a slightly better entry. Just my opinion of course but I think the best place for stops is beneath the 1.3300 even handled psychological number. Yes it opens you up to a little more risk, but as we saw with last weeks $EURUSD trade (Which smashed through second targets yesterday) sometimes having a little extra protection makes it worth it. Your call of course follow your rules
Also if you missed it yesterday check out my latest Trading Video over at youtube. www.youtube.com The reaction to this week’s video has been MASSIVE as I go on a great rant about the 3 Steps to changing your trading future as well as a breakdown of a simple pattern trade on the GBPUSD.
I’m trying to reach 15,000 subscribers by 2016 so it would be a BIG help if you became a subscriber or at least shared the word with your trading buddies. Of course that’s only if you like the content.
Have a good weekend traders and Syndicate members I’m going to try and give you guys a quick video this morning before heading out of town.
PLAN YOUR TRADE, & TRADE YOUR PLAN
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at Trade Empowered
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USD/TRY D1 Perspective I had a request from a friend to analyze USD/TRY:
On daily perspective I saw a nice classical Elliot Wave with double zigzag till point E correction waves.
Before starting the analyze I want you to eliminate the harmonic pattern that I draw there; First we start with trends and the potential of opening trade. PA (Price Action) creates trend and trends give us opportunity to open a position trade by its steep. On S2 line we had 2 potential of Buy and why we do not Sell on R1.2 is because of its upward steep and we will never Sell on upward trend and never do amateurish scalping and we do not close our deal until either S2 breaks or we see a PA TP Signal which we had it on the top and Also a good Sell Signal at the same time.
Remember as a good trader how we open Sell Position is not when ever we see double top just sell on it. Even though we have seen a bearish PA on the top we still should wait ti S 1.1 trend to break and then we can open Sell position with SL of above R 1 + Spread. Since price follows our expectation we will sell any time if price touches the R1.1 with SL of above it. (Remember you must first observe that does the price are going to touch and pull back or it will breaks the trend. You never Sell if your trend is broke out. You follow the price till you reach the Future Expected Price A (FEPA) and if price does not change direction; you will follow the same strategy till you reach FEPB. (If R 1.1 dose not break).
Since we have S 2 Trend line seems to be stronger than R1.1 you also can expect an uptrend around that area. If we see S 2 Breaks R 1.1 we get ready to see a harmonic pattern in future.
Our expected Patterns and Elliot are not our signal, it's just a map and idea that we can look at them some time. We trade based on your best friend (trend) and PA.
Any time if the harmonic pattern is completed you can expect for a bullish movement.
Remember you will close all the sell position if R 1.1 breaks and will not open any position till you reach on 1 safe trend. Hold is also an option.
FEP are found by Orbits strategy that I have explained in many of my previous perspective. If you are new to it please read my previous analysis and if still you have problem with it feel free and email me at farsi.masoud@gmail.com
EURUSD 4 Hour: Bearish Bat Pattern Completion Finally filled short on the bearish bat pattern that we’ve been waiting for on the EURUSD. We’ve got a small rising wedge with bearish divergence on the RSI heading into that level which is a plus, but at the end of the day the pattern is the pattern is the pattern.
We’ve been on a heater as of late, hopefully we can keep things rolling with the Euro.
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at Trade Empowered
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CADJPY: Perfect Example of a Structure Based TCT Opportunity Not a pair that’s in my trading portfolio but I have no doubt that this will be on Jason Stapleton’s radar during this morning Warroom meeting. This is a simple Trend Continuation Trade (TCT) setup on the CADJPY as we look to get long at our current level of structure support.
WHAT I’M LOOKING AT
Price action has just broken a resistance level and has retraced back to structure for the second time. The current structure shelf allows you a nice area to get involved with minimum risk, while our previous structure highs look to be a good area to do some profit taking. The only question is “how do I get involved?” Well that parts up to you and your trading plan. An aggressive trade can simply buy it up at market, while a more conservative trader may need to go down to a lower timeframe and wait for confirmation at that level. Either way I think it’s a great example of the type of trades that I look for when searching for TCT type setups. Just do me a favor, make sure you follow your rules, because you saw what happened to me when I didn't ( www.youtube.com )
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at Trade Empowered
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USDCAD: Minimize Your Mistakes Video (Not a New Trading Idea) Last week i mentioned that I took a "Bad Trade" In this video I walk through my analysis of the pair and the reasons that the trade was not executed properly in hopes that you guys can learn from my mistake.
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Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Trader
www.tradeEmpowered.com
EURUSD: What We've Had & What We Have NextAs mentioned in this week’s video (link below), the Euro has been a great pair for me over the past month or so and has helped me greatly in finally breaking my September Curse. As price action breaks to the upside I’m preparing for my next short in the form of a potential bearish Bat Pattern.
The patterns prior to the bat setup are all described in the video below along with a discussion about trading competitions, a 270% return in 3 months, a walkthrough of my audusd trade from earlier in the week (from thought process to completion) and a lot more. Please let me know what you think.
Forex Trading: “A Little Bit of Everything Related to trading” www.youtube.com
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at Trade Empowered
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EURUSD: Potential Bullish Bat PatternComing off of yesterday's Bear Gartley & today's bearish 2618 trade the Euro has been very kind to us. let's see if we can take advantage of another opportunity with a bullish bat pattern, while we're still stuck in consolidation.
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at Trade Empowered
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EURUSD: Potential Bullish Gartley & Trading Week #40 RecapI don’t do any active trading on Monday’s but I do make my way around my portfolio to see if there are any advanced patterns that need orders set for the day.
Here on the EURUSD we have a potential bullish Gartley pattern coming back into a structure zone that I would like for a buying opportunity whether it was a pattern or not.
Trading Recap Week #40 “the Curse Is Over” tradeempowered.com
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at Trade Empowered
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EURAUD: When to use the 2618 Strategy/Live Q&A TodayLast night I shot out a video to some traders looking at this opportunity to take a short on EURAUD. The trading idea was based off of a read of price action and a prediction of a continuation of the short-term trend. The idea was to wait for price action to reach that level of resistance and see if we could get some type of confirmation of a hold. (Double Top).
As you can see we got the double top (along with bearish divergence) and the market decided to roll over. Well the question is, for a trader like myself who is fast asleep during the London open, how do I get involved? You know what you need in order to take the trade however you don’t want to wake up every hour stalking it….so what do you do?
Well this is when the 2618 trading technique comes in handy. No it won’t replace the double top entry that you wanted, however it does provide another opportunity to get involved.
Now I’m not looking to get involved in this trade today because it’s Non-Farm Friday and I won’t be actively training. But hopefully this answered a few questions about how and when to use the 2618 strategy. Here’s the link to the free training if you haven’t seen it. tradeempowered.com
Lastly make sure you join me today for my Live Q&A session starting at 8am New York. www.youtube.com As mentioned above, I have no intentions of trading today so I figured we’d hangout and let you guys get to know a little bit about THE MAN, THE MYTH, THE LEGEND!....Oh and myself to hahaha. See you there.
Akil Stokes
EURUSD: Potential Bullish Garltey within the ConsolidationLot’s on my trading radar today gang. In fact out of the 11 pairs in my trading portfolio, I’m either involved or have pending orders on 7 of them. (EURUSD, EURJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, GBPJPY, NZDUSD, EURAUD).
The chart you’re looking at displays a potential bullish Gartley pattern on the EURUSD. This pair has been in consolidation as of late which has been a positive thing for pattern traders, nailing profits on both the previous bullish cypher and bearish bat patterns that were offered. Will this next potential pattern meet the same fate? I hope so, but honestly there is no way to tell. Remember traders we don’t have any control over the markets, they do what they want when they want. The only thing that we can control is ourselves and how well we execute our trading plan.
The green/red boxes on the side will give you an idea of where I’m looking for initial stops and targets. The risk reward on this particular pair is slightly above 1:1 so unless we have a perfect completion, I’m expecting an inverse risk/reward going forward.
If you’re around this Friday I’ll be doing a Live Google Hangout in my trading room. With the Non-Farm Employment release coming I have no intentions of trading so I figured we could all hang out and do a little Question & Answer. If you’re interested just head over and subscribe to my youtube channel. It will be THIS FRIDAY at 8am New York Time. www.youtube.com
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at Trade Empowered
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EURUSD: Potential Bearish Bat Pattern (The Smaller One)Hey traders, there are more than a few opportunities setting up on the EURUSD, this one is still a ways away from me taking it serious, but believe it or not, it's the smallest of the potential opportunities. (The bigger potential patterns are on the 4 hour and Daily charts)
What we have here is a potential bearish pat pattern which would complete at 1.1418. Now it's important that we don't pass up on other trading opportunities because of the potential pattern because there's no reason to be confident in the completion until the "B" leg is broken providing us with a NSH, HHHC.
Just like with the USDJPY trade last week (Minute 2:35 of this Video www.youtube.com ) I'll be looking for a potential structure based trade at the structure level as well.
Hoping you guys have had a great trading week, and cheers to a great weekend.
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at www.TradeEmpowered.com
XAUUSD: A 2nd Cypher Forming on the 4 HourShared this idea with you yesterday during my Live Trading Room hours, so i didn't have a chance to write an explanation of what I was looking at.
What we had here (in orange) was a bearish Cypher pattern completion. The "D" leg of this Bearish Cypher also happens to be the "C" leg of a potential Bullish Cypher that would complete down at $1,110.97. I got the question the other day about "which pattern occurs most frequently" and my answer was the Cypher pattern mainly because it often comes after the completion of another pattern.
It's been a pretty big week in the markets. I'm looking forward to a final day of "Good Trading" (following my rules) and enjoying a nice weekend. I'm wishing the same to you traders.
Also if you didn't hear it yesterday, make sure you check out my latest trading video where I share a Great A Success Story from a trading friend of mine. Here's the link www.youtube.com the Success Story Starts at minute 10:30
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at www.TradeEmpowered.com
USDJPY: A Lot Going On Here So Let Me ExplainEarlier in the week I shared with you my idea for a potential bullish Cypher pattern here on the USDJPY and as you can see price action has yet to reach the “D” completion point. In Tuesday’s Live Trading Room session we were able to capture some profit on a long entry as the market retested the Cypher “B” leg and now price action looks to be retesting that zone once again.
I want to keep this as simple as possible but here’s what I’m looking at going into today’s trading.
1) Another potential long entry at the same level as Tuesday’s trade (orange box). Not only does that represent previous structure support, but we would have a nice harmonic move heading into that level as well. I haven’t drawn in any Fibonacci yet but I would assume some type of confluence too.
2) The potential Cypher pattern completion from earlier in the week and…
3) A potential Bullish Gartley pattern that has now formed as well.
I’ll see if I can record the Live Analysis I do on this pair during this morning’s Live Trading Room session and add it to today’s Youtube video ( www.youtube.com )
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at Trade Empowered
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USDJPY: Potential 1 Hour Back to Back Cypher PatternsI’ll tell you what trader’s, there’s nothing more exciting than a pain free trade and nothing more nerve racking then needing to put entries right back on but in the opposite direction.
That’s the situation that we have here on the USDJPY 1 Hour timeframe. Yesterday we had a bearish Cypher pattern roll over to smash targets (hopefully TGT 2 gets clipped) and now we have to be ready to enter once again but in the opposite direction. (Using a Stop and Reverse is an option but I’d personally rather get my targets off and not take the risk).
Do be a favor, before blindly following me WHICH I HOPE NONE OF YOU ARE DOING, double check your “C” leg to make sure it’s valid. As well all know (or know now) there’s no central market in Forex so price quotes will be different depending on your broker. That means for some of you it will be valid and for others it won’t. Hence why you always hear traders say “Trade What YOU See”
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at Trade Empowered
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EURUSD: Potential Bullish Cypher Pattern & Why I'm Waiting It's a busy Monday in the Markets as we're seeing a lot of corrections from last week's major news event. I've got a lot on my radar including potential longs on GBPJPY & AUDUSD. As well as a few potential shorts on GBPJPY & USDJPY. In fact the USDJPY may be filled already on a bearish Cypher .
Speaking of Cyphers we have a potential bullish Cypher here on the EURUSD down at 1.1165. Now because the risk is beyond my acceptable levels (100pips) I won't be able to enter aggressively at the D completion, rather I'll have to wait until I get an alternate reason inside the Kill Zone. in the future I'll be able to simple move my entries down to a level that will put me within that 100pips zone however I do have "rules" about when I can change "rules" so that can't happen until the end of the quarter.
There looks to be lots of movement in the market which means lots of opportunities, so i'm excited about the week ahead. I'm also excited about some testing that I'll be doing trying to "break" a level III system to make sure all of the bugs are out. Admit it you'd be excited to if someone have you a sledge hammer and said "swing away"
Good luck out there traders and thanks for all of the kind comments from this past week's Weekend Review video. The speech that Jason Stapleton gave was great and hopefully it had an affect on your trading mindset! (Here's the link www.youtube.com)
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at Trade Empowered
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USDCAD: potential Bullish Bat (4 Hour Chart)Two trades on my radar this morning a potential bullish gartley pattern on the USDJPY & a potential bullish bat pattern shown here on the USDCAD. I wanted to share this one with you because it does a better job of following up on this week’s theme of combining patterns with the overall ebbs & flows of price action.
If you remember, yesterday’s video covered that same topic as we walked through the EURJPY combining both structure analysis and advanced patterns. (“Looking Over A Forex Trader’s Shoulders” tradeempowered.com )
Hope you guys stayed safe out there yesterday. I cancelled all three of my positions going into the rate statement just to remove all exposure. In hindsight I would have benefited greatly from leaving them on but it was 100% the correct move for me to get out. Although trading is technically a gamble, it’s a gamble I only want to take when I feel that I have the edge.
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered
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AUDCAD: A Cypher Within A CypherLast week we put this potential bearish Cypher pattern (left) on our radar, but because the risk was so large, it wasn’t a trade that I was able to take. Whenever this happens instead of calling it a day and deleting my charts, I always look for secondary reasons to enter. After blowing past the “D” completion the AUDCAD has found resistance at our “X” structure and has slightly retraced. As I look down to the 15 minute chart in preparation for today’s Live Trading session, I noticed a potential Cypher pattern within the bigger Cypher pattern that I can use to be involved in the trade. No it won’t be the same trade because going from 4 hour to 15 minute is just too large of a jump to expect the same results as far as target location, but it does give me a reason to get involved short at a level that I’m fond of.
With patterns like this, stops are always beyond the X leg and initial targets are looking for a 38.2 and 61.8 retracement. Of course extended targets wouldn’t be a bad idea in this scenario as well.
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst
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USDJPY: Trading with Price Action & Fibonacci Tools (VIDEO)Hey traders, sorry for being away all week but I needed to get away from some of the negativity that exist on these social sites and concentrate fully on what matters most TRADING. The chart above is of a trade we took on the USDJPY this week using nothing more than the fundamental skills of reading a price chart and using the Fibonacci ratio tools.
Obviously explaining the trade would mean numerous paragraphs so to make things easier, I just recorded a video. Enjoy and hopefully I’ll be back on tradingview next week. We’ll see, I love sharing ideas with you guys and helping you out but I must admit, being away has been refreshing.
FOREX TRADING USING PRICE ACTION & FIBONACCI RATIOS VIDEO
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Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered
EURUSD: Potential Bullish Gartley on the Hourly Potential Bullish Gartley pattern here on the EURUSD 1 hour chart completing at 1.1206. The recent consolidation on the Euro has been good for pattern traders allowing us to profit on the Gartley/Cypher from earlier in the week, hopefully this Gartley can deliver us the same. (tradeempowered.com)
One thing about this particular pattern that you may want to keep an eye out for is the potential risk/reward. The safest place for a stop loss is going to be below the 1.1150’s level and because it’s not a deep “D” completion that may mean stretching your risk reward ratio past 1:1 if you want to be down there. That’s a personal decision obviously, but I do think it’s something to think about if taking this trade.
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered
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EURUSD: Bearish Gartley In A Bearish Market (w/Video Link)Short & simple today (no pun intended). We have a potential bearish Gartley pattern setting up on a market that has been in a strong bearish trend. Perfect chance for those of you who aren’t trend continuation traders, to hop on a TCT type of move using advanced patterns.
With Jason Stapleton out of town today, I’ll be running this morning War Room meeting, running through what trades are on my radar for the day. Here’s the link where you can watch it live. www.youtube.com See you there!
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered
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