EURUSD: Potential Bullish Bat PatternComing off of yesterday's Bear Gartley & today's bearish 2618 trade the Euro has been very kind to us. let's see if we can take advantage of another opportunity with a bullish bat pattern, while we're still stuck in consolidation.
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: Potential Bullish Gartley & Trading Week #40 RecapI don’t do any active trading on Monday’s but I do make my way around my portfolio to see if there are any advanced patterns that need orders set for the day.
Here on the EURUSD we have a potential bullish Gartley pattern coming back into a structure zone that I would like for a buying opportunity whether it was a pattern or not.
Trading Recap Week #40 “the Curse Is Over” tradeempowered.com
Akil Stokes
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EURAUD: When to use the 2618 Strategy/Live Q&A TodayLast night I shot out a video to some traders looking at this opportunity to take a short on EURAUD. The trading idea was based off of a read of price action and a prediction of a continuation of the short-term trend. The idea was to wait for price action to reach that level of resistance and see if we could get some type of confirmation of a hold. (Double Top).
As you can see we got the double top (along with bearish divergence) and the market decided to roll over. Well the question is, for a trader like myself who is fast asleep during the London open, how do I get involved? You know what you need in order to take the trade however you don’t want to wake up every hour stalking it….so what do you do?
Well this is when the 2618 trading technique comes in handy. No it won’t replace the double top entry that you wanted, however it does provide another opportunity to get involved.
Now I’m not looking to get involved in this trade today because it’s Non-Farm Friday and I won’t be actively training. But hopefully this answered a few questions about how and when to use the 2618 strategy. Here’s the link to the free training if you haven’t seen it. tradeempowered.com
Lastly make sure you join me today for my Live Q&A session starting at 8am New York. www.youtube.com As mentioned above, I have no intentions of trading today so I figured we’d hangout and let you guys get to know a little bit about THE MAN, THE MYTH, THE LEGEND!....Oh and myself to hahaha. See you there.
Akil Stokes
EURUSD: Potential Bullish Garltey within the ConsolidationLot’s on my trading radar today gang. In fact out of the 11 pairs in my trading portfolio, I’m either involved or have pending orders on 7 of them. (EURUSD, EURJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, GBPJPY, NZDUSD, EURAUD).
The chart you’re looking at displays a potential bullish Gartley pattern on the EURUSD. This pair has been in consolidation as of late which has been a positive thing for pattern traders, nailing profits on both the previous bullish cypher and bearish bat patterns that were offered. Will this next potential pattern meet the same fate? I hope so, but honestly there is no way to tell. Remember traders we don’t have any control over the markets, they do what they want when they want. The only thing that we can control is ourselves and how well we execute our trading plan.
The green/red boxes on the side will give you an idea of where I’m looking for initial stops and targets. The risk reward on this particular pair is slightly above 1:1 so unless we have a perfect completion, I’m expecting an inverse risk/reward going forward.
If you’re around this Friday I’ll be doing a Live Google Hangout in my trading room. With the Non-Farm Employment release coming I have no intentions of trading so I figured we could all hang out and do a little Question & Answer. If you’re interested just head over and subscribe to my youtube channel. It will be THIS FRIDAY at 8am New York Time. www.youtube.com
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: Potential Bearish Bat Pattern (The Smaller One)Hey traders, there are more than a few opportunities setting up on the EURUSD, this one is still a ways away from me taking it serious, but believe it or not, it's the smallest of the potential opportunities. (The bigger potential patterns are on the 4 hour and Daily charts)
What we have here is a potential bearish pat pattern which would complete at 1.1418. Now it's important that we don't pass up on other trading opportunities because of the potential pattern because there's no reason to be confident in the completion until the "B" leg is broken providing us with a NSH, HHHC.
Just like with the USDJPY trade last week (Minute 2:35 of this Video www.youtube.com ) I'll be looking for a potential structure based trade at the structure level as well.
Hoping you guys have had a great trading week, and cheers to a great weekend.
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at www.TradeEmpowered.com
XAUUSD: A 2nd Cypher Forming on the 4 HourShared this idea with you yesterday during my Live Trading Room hours, so i didn't have a chance to write an explanation of what I was looking at.
What we had here (in orange) was a bearish Cypher pattern completion. The "D" leg of this Bearish Cypher also happens to be the "C" leg of a potential Bullish Cypher that would complete down at $1,110.97. I got the question the other day about "which pattern occurs most frequently" and my answer was the Cypher pattern mainly because it often comes after the completion of another pattern.
It's been a pretty big week in the markets. I'm looking forward to a final day of "Good Trading" (following my rules) and enjoying a nice weekend. I'm wishing the same to you traders.
Also if you didn't hear it yesterday, make sure you check out my latest trading video where I share a Great A Success Story from a trading friend of mine. Here's the link www.youtube.com the Success Story Starts at minute 10:30
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at www.TradeEmpowered.com
USDJPY: A Lot Going On Here So Let Me ExplainEarlier in the week I shared with you my idea for a potential bullish Cypher pattern here on the USDJPY and as you can see price action has yet to reach the “D” completion point. In Tuesday’s Live Trading Room session we were able to capture some profit on a long entry as the market retested the Cypher “B” leg and now price action looks to be retesting that zone once again.
I want to keep this as simple as possible but here’s what I’m looking at going into today’s trading.
1) Another potential long entry at the same level as Tuesday’s trade (orange box). Not only does that represent previous structure support, but we would have a nice harmonic move heading into that level as well. I haven’t drawn in any Fibonacci yet but I would assume some type of confluence too.
2) The potential Cypher pattern completion from earlier in the week and…
3) A potential Bullish Gartley pattern that has now formed as well.
I’ll see if I can record the Live Analysis I do on this pair during this morning’s Live Trading Room session and add it to today’s Youtube video ( www.youtube.com )
Akil Stokes
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USDJPY: Potential 1 Hour Back to Back Cypher PatternsI’ll tell you what trader’s, there’s nothing more exciting than a pain free trade and nothing more nerve racking then needing to put entries right back on but in the opposite direction.
That’s the situation that we have here on the USDJPY 1 Hour timeframe. Yesterday we had a bearish Cypher pattern roll over to smash targets (hopefully TGT 2 gets clipped) and now we have to be ready to enter once again but in the opposite direction. (Using a Stop and Reverse is an option but I’d personally rather get my targets off and not take the risk).
Do be a favor, before blindly following me WHICH I HOPE NONE OF YOU ARE DOING, double check your “C” leg to make sure it’s valid. As well all know (or know now) there’s no central market in Forex so price quotes will be different depending on your broker. That means for some of you it will be valid and for others it won’t. Hence why you always hear traders say “Trade What YOU See”
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: Potential Bullish Cypher Pattern & Why I'm Waiting It's a busy Monday in the Markets as we're seeing a lot of corrections from last week's major news event. I've got a lot on my radar including potential longs on GBPJPY & AUDUSD. As well as a few potential shorts on GBPJPY & USDJPY. In fact the USDJPY may be filled already on a bearish Cypher .
Speaking of Cyphers we have a potential bullish Cypher here on the EURUSD down at 1.1165. Now because the risk is beyond my acceptable levels (100pips) I won't be able to enter aggressively at the D completion, rather I'll have to wait until I get an alternate reason inside the Kill Zone. in the future I'll be able to simple move my entries down to a level that will put me within that 100pips zone however I do have "rules" about when I can change "rules" so that can't happen until the end of the quarter.
There looks to be lots of movement in the market which means lots of opportunities, so i'm excited about the week ahead. I'm also excited about some testing that I'll be doing trying to "break" a level III system to make sure all of the bugs are out. Admit it you'd be excited to if someone have you a sledge hammer and said "swing away"
Good luck out there traders and thanks for all of the kind comments from this past week's Weekend Review video. The speech that Jason Stapleton gave was great and hopefully it had an affect on your trading mindset! (Here's the link www.youtube.com)
Akil Stokes
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USDCAD: potential Bullish Bat (4 Hour Chart)Two trades on my radar this morning a potential bullish gartley pattern on the USDJPY & a potential bullish bat pattern shown here on the USDCAD. I wanted to share this one with you because it does a better job of following up on this week’s theme of combining patterns with the overall ebbs & flows of price action.
If you remember, yesterday’s video covered that same topic as we walked through the EURJPY combining both structure analysis and advanced patterns. (“Looking Over A Forex Trader’s Shoulders” tradeempowered.com )
Hope you guys stayed safe out there yesterday. I cancelled all three of my positions going into the rate statement just to remove all exposure. In hindsight I would have benefited greatly from leaving them on but it was 100% the correct move for me to get out. Although trading is technically a gamble, it’s a gamble I only want to take when I feel that I have the edge.
Akil Stokes
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AUDCAD: A Cypher Within A CypherLast week we put this potential bearish Cypher pattern (left) on our radar, but because the risk was so large, it wasn’t a trade that I was able to take. Whenever this happens instead of calling it a day and deleting my charts, I always look for secondary reasons to enter. After blowing past the “D” completion the AUDCAD has found resistance at our “X” structure and has slightly retraced. As I look down to the 15 minute chart in preparation for today’s Live Trading session, I noticed a potential Cypher pattern within the bigger Cypher pattern that I can use to be involved in the trade. No it won’t be the same trade because going from 4 hour to 15 minute is just too large of a jump to expect the same results as far as target location, but it does give me a reason to get involved short at a level that I’m fond of.
With patterns like this, stops are always beyond the X leg and initial targets are looking for a 38.2 and 61.8 retracement. Of course extended targets wouldn’t be a bad idea in this scenario as well.
Akil Stokes
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USDJPY: Trading with Price Action & Fibonacci Tools (VIDEO)Hey traders, sorry for being away all week but I needed to get away from some of the negativity that exist on these social sites and concentrate fully on what matters most TRADING. The chart above is of a trade we took on the USDJPY this week using nothing more than the fundamental skills of reading a price chart and using the Fibonacci ratio tools.
Obviously explaining the trade would mean numerous paragraphs so to make things easier, I just recorded a video. Enjoy and hopefully I’ll be back on tradingview next week. We’ll see, I love sharing ideas with you guys and helping you out but I must admit, being away has been refreshing.
FOREX TRADING USING PRICE ACTION & FIBONACCI RATIOS VIDEO
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Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered
EURUSD: Potential Bullish Gartley on the Hourly Potential Bullish Gartley pattern here on the EURUSD 1 hour chart completing at 1.1206. The recent consolidation on the Euro has been good for pattern traders allowing us to profit on the Gartley/Cypher from earlier in the week, hopefully this Gartley can deliver us the same. (tradeempowered.com)
One thing about this particular pattern that you may want to keep an eye out for is the potential risk/reward. The safest place for a stop loss is going to be below the 1.1150’s level and because it’s not a deep “D” completion that may mean stretching your risk reward ratio past 1:1 if you want to be down there. That’s a personal decision obviously, but I do think it’s something to think about if taking this trade.
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: Bearish Gartley In A Bearish Market (w/Video Link)Short & simple today (no pun intended). We have a potential bearish Gartley pattern setting up on a market that has been in a strong bearish trend. Perfect chance for those of you who aren’t trend continuation traders, to hop on a TCT type of move using advanced patterns.
With Jason Stapleton out of town today, I’ll be running this morning War Room meeting, running through what trades are on my radar for the day. Here’s the link where you can watch it live. www.youtube.com See you there!
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: Counter Trend @ 1.12s or TCT In Anticipation of the moveA lot of my radar today going around my trading portfolio including the EURUSD. After being stopped out for a loss on yesterday’s bullish Bat pattern, we re-did our IPDE process and started making predictions for our next opportunities. I still don’t see a structure level that I’m a fan of on this pair that is until/unless we get down to the 1.1000 area, but the next potential speed bump may come around the 1.1200 even handle number.
Aside from it being a psychological number, we have multiple harmonic moves setting up in that area, some Fibonacci extensions, and most importantly, looking left we’ve got structure leaving clues.
As discussed in yesterday’s live session, the question just isn’t “where will we go?” but “how will we get there?” And this offers yet another trend continuation (TCT) opportunity if the market were to retrace in anticipation on that 1.1200 level being hit. Of course counter trend (CT) traders, this makes no difference to you as you’re only waiting for the next structure level.
We’ve got the Jackson Hole Symposium going on today which may provide some movement along with Pre-GDP and our normal Thursday Unemployment Claims out at 8:30am & Pending Home Sales at 10:00am. I don’t even try to pretend that I can predict the outcome of these events, but keep those in mind while trading today. We’ll be keeping an eye out for this one in our live trading room today along with potential trades on the GBPUSD, EURJPY, GBPJPY & USDCAD which are all high on my radar.
Also it’s THURSDAY so make sure you check out my Youtube page later for my weekly Forex Trading Video www.youtube.com
Have a great day of trading gang!
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered
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EURUSD: Now I'm Ready To Buy On Our 2nd Test of Yesterday's ZoneFollowing up on yesterday’s EURUSD analysis, the market reached my killzone and we saw a slight bullish bounce as previous resistance turned into support. We have now made our way back down into that zone, but this time the ebbs and flows of price action have set up a potential advanced pattern in the form of a bullish bat.
If you’re a Syndicate member, check your emails as I just recorded a video on this same trade talking about the potential bearish bat that may form as a result of this as well and why you may, or may not want to use this as an “aggressive C” opportunity, but to keep things simple, the ATR has been big enough on this pair to provide more than enough potential profit by taking traditional targets so there’s really no need to get fancy. After all, as I mentioned yesterday I’m still uncertain whether our new structure high was a true move or just a fear based reaction to the madness that’s been occurring.
Personally, I’ve always been a fan of getting my money and getting out, especially in times like these. Anyway, we can discuss it more in the Live Room today. Good luck traders and continue to be safe out there.
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: Who The Heck Knows What's NextI’m not even going to lie to you guys. I have no idea what the next move is on the Euro. As I told my training course clients yesterday, right now I’m in defense mode as I don’t want to give any of this years gains back trying to get cute in these crazy markets. With that being said I have gotten messages here on Tradingview to share my opinion and do some analysis so here it is.
After resistance is broken it turns to support, so I’m looking for price action to retrace to our previous level of structure and potential give us some type of reaction. Normally I would say to expect a trend continuation move here but I do think yesterday’s moves were overblown and a correction is in store, especially for those interested in buying USD’s and this discounted price.
Looking on the hourly chart a harmonic move (ABCD) would put us right at a previous level of structure both minor on the hourly and major on the daily. Also, keep in mind we have an important consumer confidence number coming out this morning as well. So will there be a reaction, I don’t know. Where will that reaction take us, I don’t know. Hey I’m just being honest with you. The only think I’ll be looking at is short term trading opportunities once my live room opens. By the way if you want to spend a free week in there with me, you can sign up here. tradeempowered.com
Maybe I’ll see you throughout the week, maybe I won’t. As mentioned before I’m not in a rush to gamble and try to catch the “hot” move, rather I’m concerned with conserving my capital and not letting a decent year of trading profits get eaten up by greed.
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: Bat Pattern Setting Up, How Will We Get ThereIn yesterday’s post I mentioned that the EURUSD was at a decision point. Well, it looks like the markets didn’t decided to go with my decision to get short as I was stopped out on the 2618 opportunity. Luckily Jason had a monster day in the Syndicate bringing in just under 300 pips himself. That’s what friends are for!
Now that the Euro has broken and closed above the previous resistance level it’s time to redo that IPDE process and prepared for the next move. Our next structure level starts around the 1.1360’s area which would also line up with a bearish bat pattern completion here on the daily. I’m not a daily chart trader, but this information will be useful for building a CTS score as I do analysis on the lower timeframes. One thing to be careful with is the higher level of structure looking left. In my experience I’ve noticed that when two levels of structure are close to eachother, the higher one is typically tested. Something to keep in mind when placing those stop losses.
In the mean time, there are two ways that price action can reach that level, it can either go directly there, or we may see a pullback into previous resistance which should now act as support
Because I didn’t have the chance to record a Weekend Review video last night I’m going to do another Live Google Hangout for the first 20 minute so of today’s Live Trading Room. Here’s the link if you want to join. And make sure you subscribe to my channel.
Click here to join the hangout www.youtube.com
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: The Next Potential Short on Euro, Bearish 2618As price action makes its way back up towards previous structure highs, we’ll reach what I like to call a “decision point” in the market. I call it that because it’s at this point where our “IF/THEN” thought process comes in today play in our decision of whether to go long or short.
Because we have yet to break structure, I won’t touch on the long option, but the short option is playing this current move as a 2618 trade. We have already entered the killzone starting at 1.1120’s and at this point I would be dialing down to your lower timeframes and looking for an entry reason.
IF this 2618 does complete and rollover, it would also be the “C” leg of a potential bullish bat pattern. You guys know how I feel about the “aggressive C” trade (BAD! BAD! BAD!) but this would be one that actually makes sense, only because you have a valid reason to enter.
I’m feeling horrible today as I’ve caught a cold from somewhere, but with A LOT on my trading radar (Syndicate members, take a look at the tradefloor this morning) I don’t want to miss what could be a day ripe with opportunity.
(If you’re unfamiliar with the 2618 trade, the free training is on our website under the “Learn to Trade” tab)
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: CPI & FOMC Today. My Advice of Trading News ReleasesToday should be a very important day for the EURUSD as we have both CPI and FOMC Meeting minutes coming out for the USD at 8:30am & 2:00pm (NY) respectively. Like many pairs as of late the Euro is currently at a spot right between structure levels where I have neither buying or selling interest. Hopefully today’s releases will push price action to either support or resistance, allowing me to have a much better read on the market for the remainder of the week.
On yesterday’s post I had a good conversation with a trader about predicting news. Whether you should or shouldn’t is completely up to you as a trader, but I do offer this advice to those who are new. Good news doesn’t always equate to a good move and bad news doesn’t always equate to a bad move. Rarely does the market move based on the actual number that is released, more so the interpretation of that number which is what makes trading news a difficult thing to consistently do (unless you’re a longer term trader). If you already have a position on (based off of the technicals) and you decide to hold an extended target because you think that the market may react a certain way, then that’s a different story as I trust that you’re using well planned out trade management techniques. But I would urge you not to try and take a position purely based off a guess, the risk over time well outweighs the reward in my opinion.
For you guys that joined me in yesterday’s Live Room Google hangout, (here’s the recording www.youtube.com) I did get filled the USDCAD that we talked about. This may be a perfect example of what I mentioned above about holding a partial position if you anticipate a certain move.
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: What's Going On With The EURO???I wanted to title this post What’s Going On With The Euro? Because I honestly don’t have a clue. With the lack of movement in the markets, it’s been really difficult to get a true read on certain pairs since they just aren’t moving too much. With no major news out today and CPI & FOMC coming tomorrow I’m expecting more of the same today.
None the less, it’s still important that I go through my I.P.D.E. process and at least make some predictions so that I have some sort of structure (no pun intended) going into the trading day.
As I always do with my analysis, what I have drawn on this chart is just a series of harmonic moves and Fibonacci extensions, inversions & retracements. They create a nice zone between the 1.1020-1.0980’s level. With that being said there’s no real level of structure at that level that gives me confidence in a reversal at that area so I’m not actively looking to get long there from a swing traders perspective. Could be a good day trading option if we get the right type of reaction once we hit it.
Anyway we’ll see what happens and hey, if you want to see me do this analysis live, I’m testing out a Youtube Live Stream today at 8am New York time. Here’s the link (I think) www.youtube.com but if you’re subscribed to my youtube page you should be notified I believe (based off of the test this morning).
Akil Stokes
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AUDUSD Trend Continuation TradeAnalysing the Bearish Trend on this pair, we can see that after the new structure low, we got a 382 retracement right at previous structure before continuing the downward movement down into the 1.618 extension before consolidating again.
If we are looking to get short and jump on the trend, the question we need to ask is where can we get involved?
So we build a case for entry.
First of all, looking left we can identify previous support which "should" now act as resistance.
Next we can draw in a Fibonacci retracement tool from the previous outside return to the new structure low and you can see we get a 382 retracement which ties in nicely with the previous harmonic move.
Next we can tae a Fibonacci retracement from the Starting Point to the most recent low and you see we get a 0.618 retracement right in the same level.
This identifies the pink area as nice probable entry zone or kill zone to get involve in shorting this pair.
Some high impact news out on the AUD tonight which may see the pair push up out of this consolidation. If we can push up into this zone we can then look to get involved.
Aggressive traders may enter at the 382 whilst more conservative traders may look for further filters strengthening their case for entry such as an AB=CD harmonic move, advanced pattern completion or even a double top on a lower time frame.
I will be keeping an eye on this pair over the next few days.
Good luck in the markets.
USDJPY: Potential Bearish Bat Pattern w/ Supply Zone Not too much on my radar today, which is perfect since I prefer not to be actively trading on Monday’s. With that being said, something that I have my orders locked and loaded on for later on is this potential bearish bat pattern on the USDJPY completing at 125.09 right around a 4hr supply zone. This one may also be worth watching as it approached 125 even as we know how these psychological numbers affect price action.
Last week was one of our rougher week’s in the Syndicate program. If you’d like to read about it check out the blog post I wrote reviewing my 33rd Week of Trading in 2015. tradeempowered.com
Akil Stokes
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