(BLOG) One of the Toughest Trades to TakeDespite going 0 for 2 (with 1 breakeven) in my swing trading today, I was able to nail both of the trades taken during Tuesday’s Live Trading Room session. It also just so happened that both of the trades taken were on the same pair and occurred right after each other. This doesn’t happen on a regular basis, but often enough for me to understand exactly how to handle the situation when it does. Here’s the trick…Just follow the plan and do what you’re supposed to do. Unfortunately to many traders this is easier said than done.
I believe that taking back-to-back patterns is one of the hardest feats to overcome in trading. Let’s think about this for a minute. You’ve just taken a bullish gartley pattern, dealt with a little bit of pain as the market churned for a while only come out the other side with profit. Typically at this moment a trader would like to sit back, relax, let out a sigh of relief and maybe tap themselves on the back for following there plan and reaping the benefits. Let’s admit it, we trade in the toughest market out there and winning is a very difficult thing to do. However, instead of getting time to celebrate and refocus another opportunity appears going the exact opposite direction of your initial trade and the first thing that comes to mind is what? “______”
“No way is the market going to reverse again already. I should just skip this trade so I don’t give back any profit.” Obviously, sometimes this will work in your favor but remember our job as pattern traders isn’t to guess which will be successful and which will not, our job is to execute every valid pattern that we see even if it’s very difficult to do mentally. However if you can pull it off it’s a great reminder of why we have rules and how the markets reward those who follow them
This particular trade yielded close to 200pips total to a trader using 2 positions on multiple targets. Yup almost 200pips total on a 15 minute chart. I tell the clients I work with all of the time, “if you’re going to be a day trader stick to watching 4 pairs. Maybe 6 max.” Many think that it’s impossible to be profitable without a massive portfolio. Hopefully scenarios like this will provide a great example of how it’s not about the quantity of pairs you watch it’s the quality of how you can trade the ones that you do that matter most.
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM /
Forex Weekend Review Videos:
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GBPUSD: Trend & Counter Trend Opportunities I have a handful of trades on my radar today but I wanted to concentrate on the GBPUSD this morning because of the multiple opportunities. The main trade that I’m looking for is the Bearish trend continuation setup. This market has clearly broken structure to the downside and if we get relief we have an excellent structure level to predict where our next pullback will come to.
We’ve also just come into a minor support level which may offer counter trend traders a buying opportunity. This will be something that I dig into during my live room on a smaller timeframe (waiting for confirmation ofcourse), but with the RSI buried, minor structure and a little Fibonacci ratio confluence, my eyes are certainly looking for a chance to buy the GBPUSD as the bears become exhausted.
We had a good day in the Syndicate yesterday. I went 1 for 2 and I’m pretty sure Jason went 2 for 2 on his NZDUSD and GBPJPY shorts. Also on my radar today is the GBPAUD, EURJPY (already long), GBPJPY (already long), EURUAD and AUDCAD
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst
www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM /
Forex Weekend Review Videos:
www.youtube.com
GBPAUD: Bear Gartley Within ChannelCan't take credit for finding this one. Monday is my off day but a few of my clients have been keeping me up to date with some of the opportunities that they've found. Most of the action has seen to come on the GBP pairs (GBPNZD $ GBPUSD) and with the Greece situation time it's still risky business in the markets as soon as something major is released. but if we are going to consolidate until we gear a decision then I might as well take advantage of the opportunities that consolidation provides. Just make sure you have a stop order on because the last thing you's want to be is unprotected during these times.
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst
www.TradeEmpowered.com
The Weekend Review Video Series www.youtube.com
USDJPY: Bearish TCT Cypher Pattern When checking out the USDJPY this morning, the first thing that I noticed was rotation in then tend. After getting rejected on a gap fill the market dipped lower breaking previous support and giving us a new structure low. As price action shows some relief and retraces back I was looking for an opportunity to get short as close as possible to previous structure highs. Looking closer I noticed that we actually had a bearish cypher as well and BAM that was a good enough reason for entry for me.
So this is a scenario where I’m not just looking to play this as an advanced pattern, but as a potential trend continuation trade as well.
*The "risk/reward" tool isn't quite accurate on the stop but I was rushing to get this posted before the move was made
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM
Forex Weekend Review Videos: www.youtube.com
GBPJPY: A Look Ahead (Day4) Euro was boring, but this pair isn'tI was supposed to be following the EURUSD this entire week, but if you look at the chart there is just absolutely nothing new going on. So instead of giving you a chart that simply read “see yesterday’s post” I thought I’d look at another pair that has been on my radar.
One of my clients and I were discussing the situation on GBPJPY last night looking for a potential bullish entry based on the retest of the structure lows. Well instead of holding those lows with say a double bottom, we broke through to the downside causing me to flip my entire analysis. With the lower low, lower close, the question that I’m no asking myself is how can I get short?
There were a few chances over the London session and another this morning but, with all of the Greece back and forth going on, I didn’t want to hop on too aggressively on the news based spike. What I’m looking for is a push back into our previous outside return, that way I can give myself the opportunity to potentially gain massive reward without a lot of risk. Just in case I have to be wrong once or twice before nailing it (not necessarily for this trade, but in general those are the benefits of having a good risk to reward ratio).
This is a pure trend continuation/trend following trade (depending on you as a trader) which has a massive downside. Our next major structure level on this pair doesn’t come until a little under 190’s. I would expect a few road blocks on the way around the 193 and 192 even handles, but when was following a trend ever that easy (one of the reason I’m not a trend following trader).
So I’ll be keeping a close eye on this intraday in the Live trading Room and see if I can find a way in. if I do I’ll certainly share it with you when tonight’s Weekly Video comes out (www.youtube.com), but until then I’d like to leave you with this quote that I used in yesterday’s blog post. tradeempowered.com
“Perhaps the most important rule is to hold on to your winners and cut your losers. Both are equally important. If you don’t stay with your winners, you are not going to be able to pay for the losers. You also have to follow your own light. Because I have so many friends who are talented traders, I often have to remind myself that if I try to trade their way, or on their ideas, I am going to lose. Every trader has strengths and weaknesses. Some are good holders of winners, but may hold their losers a little too long. Others may cut their winners a little short, but are quick to take their losses. As long as you stick to your own style, you get the good and bad in your own approach. When you try to incorporate someone else’s style, you often wind up with the worst of both styles. I’ve done that a lot.” –Michael Marcus
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com
EURUSD: A Look Ahead (Day 2) "I Got Long This Morning"Surprisingly the bulk of the movement on EURUSD yesterday seemed to come in the…Asia session (whaaat?) Anyway, we are now down in a zone where I thought we may see a potential reversal. Personally I got long on the smaller Gartley pattern this morning (from 1.1231) but keep in mind we also have a bigger bat pattern lurking down at 1.1182.
I got the question yesterday asking “Akil which one will be more accurate to take?” Honestly, I don’t know. If I did, I’d bet the house on it but seriously, we never know what the market is going to do and if someone is telling you otherwise, then they’re lying to you and probably trying to sell you something. With that being said this situation is interesting because for some, the gartley pattern stops will be below the bat pattern completion which means that you’ll either have to choose one over the other, or split the position and take both trades.
I like the saying “a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush.” Meaning a completed pattern is always valued over a potential pattern assuming there aren’t any risk issues. I also like the protection that the 1.1200 level offers in the form of a psychological number and Fibonacci ratio cluster. Currently I’m looking for a push up to the 1.13 even handle to take profit, but that may change depending on how far this “D” leg falls.
Until we get out of this consolidation, I don’t really have any long-term outlooks on this pair, so I’ll continue to look for intraday opportunities until a true direction is determined. Other pairs on my radar today are the USDJPY (already long), EURAUD (again), EURJPY and AUDUSD
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at www.TradeEmpowered.com
My Trading Videos: www.youtube.com
My Latest Blog Post "Watch Your Position Sizing" tradeempowered.com
EURUSD: A Look Ahead (Day 1)The response of last week's test of following a single pair throughout the entire week was FANTASTIC! I really enjoyed doing it, and a lot of you really enjoyed seeing how my analysis (IF/THEN Thought Process) changes throughout the week. Per request, this week I'll be following the EURUSD. Now Monday's are typically my non-trading day. I will place them if something comes up, but I'm not as actively engaged in the markets due to my educational obligations and because I like to give the market a full London & New York session to feel its way out.
So I haven't done any long term analysis on the Euro as of yet, but I did notice two potential Gartley patterns that are setting up. One bullish and the other bearish. Which makes perfect sense if you think about it since this pair as been in consolidation and consolidation breeds pattern trading opportunities.
I'll keep you guys updated each day this week on how my thought process had changed and if I ended up entering a position or not. Speaking of positions, your you guys that were following me last week with my GBPUSD analysis, i did end up entering long this morning down at 1.5810's. I'm looking for an initial bounce to 1.5850's and if we can continue to see GBPUSD strength after that, well let's say that I'll be a very happy camper.
Talk to you guys throughout the week!
Akil Stokes (@AkilStokesRTM)
Chief Currency Analyst at www.TradeEmpowered.com
You Can Check Out My Weekly Trading Videos Here: www.youtube.com
GBPAUD 2618 TradeLooking at the weekly time frame on this pair, we are at a level of previous structure looking left. If we go down to the daily time frame you can see the market has put in three candles with high test wicks. For me, this shows that the bulls have attempted to push through the resistance level but have been rejected by the bears each time.
This would signal a potential shorting opportunity. But how can we get involved?
Well moving down to the hourly time frame, price action has put in a double top, a break and close below structure then a retest of the 618 retracement completing a 2618 trade set up.
This presents a great shorting opportunity with good risk reward.
If price action is around the same level of Fridays close, the more conservative traders could look to shoot for targets at previous structure offering a 1:1 RR . Those more aggressive traders could shoot for extended targets down at the 618 retracement which lines up in the zone with previous structure or even the 786 retracement which comes right in line with the circled level of indecision structure.
Whatever happens, good luck in the markets and I hope you all have a good week trading.
GBPUSD: The Week Ahead (Day 5)On Thursday the GBPUSD broke a very important structure level around the 1.58 even handle. Since that moment I had to redo my I.P.D.E. and shift my focus from a potential short at that area, to a potential long to hop on the underlying trend. In yesterday’s update I told you guys that I was looking for a retracement and you know what it looks like we’ve got one, or are in the process of getting one.
I initially thought we had a Bat pattern completion setting up but our “B” leg comes in a little too deep. So shifting back to harmonics and structure an AB=CD pattern would put us right at our previous outside return, which lines up right with that structure level that was broken earlier in the week. We have a minor Fibonacci retracement down there as well (for those using the CTS) but the main thing is structure at that key level. Could be a demand zone as well for those who are into that.
Technically the “A-Kill” zone starts a little bit higher at the 1.5850’s levels, but I think the lower level will provide the least amount of risk. Either way if you’re a trend following trader and believe that this market is going to continue bullish then both levels would be buying at a bargain price.
Hope you guys enjoyed this week of walking through a single chart. My question for you guys is next week would you like me to continue with this same pair, or pick something different? Please let me know and if there’s a pair you have in mind shoot me those ideas and I’ll pick one over the weekend.
Have a great end of the week, and if you missed my ideas on USDCAD, GBPAUD and the Short Film that I shared representing the everyday battle that is trading. Make sure you check out my latest trading video. www.youtube.com
Until next week traders, Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan and have a fantastic weekend!
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at www.TradeEmpowered.com
GBPUSD: The Week Ahead (Day 4)Yesterday’s news gave us a lot of continued strength in the GBP blowing right past previous structure without a pause it seems. So the question is what’s next? Well going off of the basic price action principles of higher high, higher close, I’m expecting the bullish move to continue. The next stopping point that I have on my radar is around 1.6200 even handle where we have a cluster of Fibonacci extensions, retracements & inversions along with some minor structure (looking far left). Technically the “killzone” is a lot wider than that, but that would be the first area that would cause me to place close attention. Our harmonic move (ab=cd) is towards the higher end of that zone, but if you look left on the screen or zoom out to the weekly, you’ll see we have some pretty decent previous structure throughout
Although we’re still a few hundred pips away from that level it’s important that I make that prediction as it’s part of the Identify, Predict, Decide, Execute (IPDE) process that I go through when evaluating every price chart. Now that I’ve predicted where I think the market is going, the next question that I want to ask myself is “how is the market going to get there?” Well, there are two ways, 1) we’ll shoot straight up, or 2) the market will show some relief and we’ll get a retracement back into previous structure.
IF the market retraces THEN I’ll be looking for opportunities to hop on the bullish move.
I appreciate all of the kind feedback on this “Weekly Follow” idea that I’ve been trying out this week. It’s been pretty fun to do, and we all need some fun in this stressful field we work in. I’ll see many of you guys in my Live Room in an hour or so, and for the rest of you, it’s Thursday, so that means be on the lookout for my weekly “Weekend Review” video www.youtube.com
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at www.tradeempowered.com
GBPUSD: The Week Ahead (Day 3)In last night’s video we talked about Wednesday being a busy news day and how one of the major releases to keep an eye on was the GBP Average Hourly Earnings. Well, waking up and seeing big spikes in the GBP pairs I can assume that this number came out better than expected. I’ll make my news rounds after getting this post out to you. Now before we get into the technicals, keep in mind that we still have a good amount of news to come including the FOMC statement at 2pm NY time.
Just to give you guys an update, I did not take the bearish bat pattern yesterday, but I did involve myself in an intraday (structure based) trade that was taken out for about a 40pip loss. With our bat pattern now being invalidated by the penetration of our “X” leg we have to restart our IPDE process and ask ourselves “what’s next?” Well a harmonic move would put us right back into a 1.618 Fibonacci extension along with previous structure highs (look left). Normally in this case I would look for a retest of previous structure highs and a chance to jump on the move up but with the FOMC coming later today, I think it’s more likely that we just consolidate until that release at 2pm.
Which way will the market go after the FOMC statement? I’d be lying to you if I said I knew. I sort of have an idea based off simply opinion, but would never base a trade because of that alone. IF we move bearish, it wouldn’t surprise me if the 1.5550’s level was tested and IF we go bullish, we’ll probably break structure to the upside.
With both the BOE and FED looking to raise rates in the future, this is truly a battle between 2 very strong currencies at the moment. It’ll be interesting to see what unfolds…from the sidelines of course.
Akil Stokes
www.TradeEmpowered.com
Check out my trading videos on YouTube www.youtube.com
GBPUSD: The Week Ahead (Day 2)If you're new to following me, yesterday I decided to dedicate an entire week to keeping you guys updated on a single pair. Below is a link to the Day 1 chart if you missed it or just need a recap on what I was looking at.
The cable was very bullish yesterday an nearly pushed up to our projected bat pattern completion. Since then we've retraced and are setting up another potential drive to that level. With all of the heavy news out of the way today and the markets waiting on tomorrows GBP news and the USDs FOMC statement, I'm not expecting too much movement so I'll mainly be looking intraday for my trading opportunities.
Here on the hourly there are two places that i'm looking to get involved on GBPUSD. The first would be a structure play at the retest of the potential Gartley patterns "B" leg and the other would be the potential Gartley which would complete down at 1.5517s.
Jason Stapleton just informed our Syndicate members that he got short this pair around the 1.56 even handle as well. My guess is a structure play as we've just tested a previous level, but I won't know for sure about his thought process on this trade until our War Room meeting at 8:30am NY.
The response was GREAT yesterday and it seems as if you guys are very excited about me trying this "1 Pair A Week" thing out. So I'll keep this going and if it continues to work well maybe it'll be a regular occasion.
See you guys in the Live Room!
Also if you're interested in seeing where I go to get my fundamental data from, i wrote a blog post last night sharing mu top 3 sources: tradeempowered.com
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com
Check out my FREE weekly trading videos www.youtube.com
GBPUSD: A Look At The Week AheadTaking inspiration from one of my followers who messaged me this weekend, I wanted to try something different here on Tradingview and concentrate on a single pair this week instead of randomly posting charts when I have the time. (Let me know what you think of this idea by the way).
This week I wanted focus on the GBPUSD as there are a few potential trading opportunities on the horizon. Big picture, after coming off of a very nice bullish bat pattern in early June, we've been waiting for the completion of a good sized bearish bat as well with a completion at 1.5639s. Last week finally brought the break above, close above of our "B" leg and since that point we've been looking for trend continuation opportunities to hop aboard a bullish move.
Last week this market found trouble closing above the 1.5552 level which is some cause for concern, but as we come back into previous structure support, i'll be looking for buying opportunities once again. There are 2 levels that really stand out to me for buying opportunities the structure level between 1.5478-1.5466 and the structure level between 1.5460-1.5421. Which one will hold? I have no idea yet, but this is what i'll be tracking as the week goes on.
If I have the time, i'll try and provide an update on this pair throughout the week and if the response is good, maybe this can be a regular thing. No promises, but I did want to start posting to tradingview again and this is a fun way to do so.
Best of luck this week traders! SMASH those markets!
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at www.TradeEmpowered.com
For Weekly Trading Videos Make Sure You Check Out My Youtube Channel www.youtube.com
USDJPY Trend Continuation Opportunity Long into SupportAfter creating new structure highs last week, the USDJPY is now putting in an outside return back into previous structure setting up a decent looking trend continuation opportunity. I yet have a reason to get long per my rules of engagement, but I will certainly be keeping a very close eye on this setup as the risk to reward is a no brainer for me with stops beneath previous structure support and targets as far up as our previous structure highs.
If any of you guys are around at 10:15am NY time I'm doing an interview with Dale Pinkert and may be reviewing this trade if I end up getting involved www.fxstreet.com
Akil Stokes
www.TradeEmpowered.com
EURUSD: 2 Structure Trades for Shorts Pt. 2To follow up on last week's EURUSD idea, the pair has finally reached higher level of structure that I liked during yesterday's Euro rally. We've now double topped at that level and have broken structure to the downside setting up for a potential 2618 opportunity for those traders looking for a conservative approach to get involved.
We do have A LOT of news on the table today including an ECB press conference and a USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change number. There aren't many expectations from the ECB this morning as nothing is expected to be said in regards to the monetary policy but there may be some Greece based questions during the Q&A and anything regarding Greece has been moving the markets as of late. Before ADP number which is released before the ECB press conference should be of importance as traders will look to use it to predict Friday's massive news day. There are rumors floating around about "ditching" the rate hike due to global worries so the very bullish sentiment that we had on the USD may not be as strong as before.
"It may be impossible for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates until the rest of the world economy improves... the dismal performance of first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product may signal a more permanent slowdown, and that the Fed needed to enter a phase of "watchful waiting" before raising rates."
Anyway enough of the fundamentals, the technicals gave me a sell yesterday so I'm still looking short on this pair but it may be an interesting day similar to the Aussie (for those of you in the Syndicate program). Below is a link to the video where I originally discussed the trade setup. The EURUSD talk starts about 11 minutes into it.
VIDEO ON EURUSD TRADE www.youtube.com
Akil Stokes
www.TradeEmpowered.com
EURUSD 1HR: Two Structure Levels for ShortsI've explained this trade in detail during my latest Weekend Review video (link below), so i'll try to be brief. Like everyone else, I want to buy Dollars & Sell Euros based off of the fundamentals. With that being said it's important that we don't try and jump on the bandwagon because that's how a lot of rookie traders get burnt. Rather, we should stick to what got us here, the technicals and use our skill of technical analysis to predict where the next relief rally will end and find a low risk opportunity to get involved. (By low risk I mean, putting myself in the position where my potential profit is larger than my potential drawdown).
As mentioned in the below video, I like the higher level of structure a lot more than the lower one, but both are worth keeping an eye on for the next leg down. It's crystal clear that the U.S. wants to raise interest rates. The best guess is September, but they have left it open by saying it depends on the economic data. I still believe that this market is prime to ignore any negative USD data (unless it's drastic) and waiting to rally on any "at expected" or positive USD news. These opinions won't affect my trading as far as looking for long or short opportunities, but they're good to know especially if the opportunity comes to shoot for extended targets.
Have a great week traders and make sure you check out the other videos in my Weekend Review Playlist.
"Maybe I Got Too Fired Up" www.youtube.com
XAUUSD: Bullish Bat Pattern w. Multiple Ways To Trade It Bullish Bat Pattern here on XAUUSD that's looking to be putting in a double bottom at the completion point. (You may hav eone already on the LTF). I say looking because on this 4hr timeframe the current candle won't close for another 2 hours or so and as we all know the close is very important to the story that the market is telling us.
If you take a look at the "A" leg for a second you'll notice that Gold has recently been in consolidation since the end of March and with the recent HHHC, there's certainly the chance that we could see a breakout of this sideways action.
Yes the USD is very strong and any bit of positive or "as expected" news is going to strengthen it even more. But the technicals are the technicals. With a light news day today, we may see enough relief to hit our small counter-trend targets before Thursday's & Friday's big releases come out.
Akil
www.TradeEmpowered.com
AUDUSD: Structure Long with Hidden DivergenceSorry for being quiet this week trading view but I've been running things on the road. Also the markets have been pretty quiet this week so there just hasn't been a lot to share. Today seems to be a little bit better and I wanted to bring a potential buying opportunity on AUDUSD to your attention.
I'm already long this pair from earlier in the week. My position has been doing absolutely nothing but sitting there, but with our recent movement in price action another opportunity has appeared as well. This structure based opportunity can be looked at like a 2618. Price action has come down to previous structure support and held, followed by a HHHC and is now retracing.
The HHHC gives us a bullish rotation and the present retracement is a perfect chance to hop aboard. Also the fact that the RSI is showing us hidden divergence gives me some added confidence and potentially added points for those of you that trade the Combined Technical Scoring System (CTS).
The risk reward looks good on this trade no matter where you look to get long, so the only question left is "How Can I Get Long?" And the answer to that should be simple. What does your trading plan say are your rules for entry on this type of trade? "But Akil, what if I don't have a rule for this in my trading plan?" Well I'm sorry but you shouldn't be taking the trade then.
With structure being at the core of my trading philosophy I'd be looking for targets at resistance & stops below support. Best of luck if you do get involved and until next time. "Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan"
Akil Stokes
www.Tradeempowered.com
GBPJPY: Price Action Short, When Will The Bulls Give In?I don't place trades off of the daily timeframes but I do watch them on a consistent basis as part of my top-down analysis and GBPJPY has been one that has been in some what of a fight as of late.
After easily rallying up into structure it's come to a halt and it looks as if the bulls may be running out of steam. Just look at the wicks, they're trying to push higher but have been rejected each of the last 5 times. Now this doesn't mean that it will happen, but it does mean that this is a decision point in the market.
If we do see some relief I would predict a move back into previous structure support which exist down at the 185 even level.
An entry on the LTF would give me a much better risk reward on this setup, so we'll see if the market will give me anything to work with this week. As of right now it looks as if my best chance is to wait for a LLLC and retest of structure to get involved.
For those of you in the Syndicate, that just watched Jason's video on the F.E. trade, this would be a perfect chance to paper trade (WITH DEMO MONEY!!!) that technique as a breakout an run wouldn't shock me.
Akil
GER30: Potential Bullish Bat Pattern (Could this be 4 in a row?)If you missed the initial analysis here's a video where I go over it. I think it starts at about the 20 minute mark, but you might as well watch the entire thing ;-)
Weekend Review: "The Most Important thing You Can Do Is..." www.youtube.com
We've been tracking this index for the past few weeks in the Live Room and so far we've been spot on with our predictions. A move into structure rolled over into a Gartley pattern, our Gartley pattern shot back up into a Cypher and our CYpher is now looking to complete a Bat pattern....potentially of course.
If you missed the initial analysis here's a video where I go over it. I think it starts at about the 20 minute mark, but you might as well watch the entire thing ;-)
Wishing you best of luck in the markets this week traders!!!
Aki
Nikkei225: Potential TCT into A Cypher (Some Random Analysis)The Forex markets have been kicking my tail this week so I decided to take a look at some other markets simply to clear my mind. Conducting technical analysis is actually a stress reliever to me, when I get do it on something that I don't trade. A few of my clients have expressed that they trade many of the indices, which lead me to the Nikkei.
Initially the first thing that popped out to me was the potential bearish Cypher pattern which met up with an outstanding amount of Fibonacci confluence after putting on a few extensions, retracements and inversions. I also had an abcd move projected last night, but couldn't say for sure since the "C" leg was still in progress.
As I took another look this morning i see that the C leg has retraced to a level deep enough to provide a rather good risk to reward for a trader looking to hop on long...not because of the potential Cypher completion, rather because of the overall shift in the trend that we just saw after achieving a HHHC.
NZDUSD: Measuring the Pullback for a Structure based ShortWe placed NZDUSD on our radar during yesterday's Live Room session and have been tracking it ever since. I apologize in advance, but the analysis that I did on this pair is somewhat advanced so I'm not going to attempt to duplicate what I shared with you in last night's Syndicate video. Honestly speaking it's a lot clearer on the 13 period range bar charts (as you can see in the link attached at the bottom).
Following the I.P.D.E. process that I shared with you guys on Monday, I've come to the conclusion that until shown otherwise, i want to get short Kiwi. The difficult part was determining where. Initially I had 3 killzones (with in the larger potential reversal zone) that sparked my interest but as this pair ebbs and flows, i'm starting to get a clearer idea of which zone is the one I want to keep my eye on and execute the trade if given the opportunity. To determine my killzones I've used a combination of Fibonacci retracements, extensions, inversions and harmonic moves.
I say given the opportunity because, having price action enter the zone or level isn't enough. I still need to find a reason for entry and I won't know if or when that will happen until we get there. For now all I can do is wait, watch and be ready to pull the trigger if it does.
Good luck in the markets today traders!
tradeempowered.com